As of 2023, the use of prescribed fire to manage ecosystems accounts for more than 50% of area burned annually across the United States. Prescribed fire is carried out when meteorological conditions, including temperature, humidity, and wind speed are appropriate for its safe and effective application. However, changes in these meteorological variables associated with future climate change may impact future opportunities to conduct prescribed fire. In this study, we combine climate projections with information on prescribed burning windows for ecoregions across the contiguous United States (CONUS) to compute the number of days when meteorological conditions allow for the safe and effective application of prescribed fire under present-day (2006–2015) and future climate (2051–2060) conditions. The resulting projections, which cover 57% of all vegetated area across the CONUS, indicate fewer days with conditions suitable for prescribed burning across ecoregions of the eastern United States due to rising maximum daily temperatures, but opportunities increase in the northern and northwestern United States, driven primarily by rising minimum temperatures and declining wind speeds.

Fire exclusion and past management have altered the composition, structure, and function of frequent-fire forests throughout western North America. In mixed-conifer forests of the California Sierra Nevada, fire exclusion has exacerbated the effects of drought and endemic bark beetles, resulting in extensive mortality of fire-adapted pine species. Thinning and prescribed fire are widely used in these forests to reduce fuels, moderate fire behavior, and restore ecosystems. Tree regeneration influences future forest composition and structure, and therefore future resilience to disturbances, but long-term effects of thinning and prescribed burning on tree regeneration after prolonged fire exclusion are poorly understood. We measured tree regeneration one year prior to, and periodically for 16 years following thinning and prescribed burning in a mixed-conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. We asked three questions. How did the composition and density of tree regeneration change after thinning and prescribed burning? Did pretreatment vegetation types influence conifer regeneration density after treatments? Did planting after overstory thinning increase regeneration density of native pine species? Sixteen years after treatments, combined natural regeneration of shade-tolerant white fir (Abies concolor) and incense-cedar (Calocedrus decurrens) averaged 2,032 trees per hectare (tph) after understory thinning, and 7,745 tph after understory thinning combined with prescribed burning, increases of 37 % and 146 % from pretreatment densities. In contrast, combined natural regeneration of white fir and incense-cedar averaged 497 tph after overstory thinning, 780 tph after overstory thinning with prescribed burning, 113 tph after prescribed burning alone, and 807 tph in untreated controls, all of which were declines from pretreatment densities. Natural regeneration of white fir and incense-cedar was consistently an order of magnitude greater than Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi) and sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), whose combined densities 16 years after treatments averaged 37 tph across treatments and did not significantly respond to thinning and/or prescribed burning. Natural conifer regeneration after treatments varied by pre-treatment vegetation type (closed canopy, Ceanothus cordulatus shrub dominated, and open sparse), with large increases of natural regeneration after understory thinning in closed canopy and Ceanothus shrub vegetation types. Planting increased sugar pine regeneration density after overstory thinning, marginally increased Jeffrey pine regeneration after overstory thinning combined with prescribed burning, and increased white fir regeneration after overstory thinning with and without burning. No treatments reduced white fir and incense-cedar natural regeneration while simultaneously increasing natural pine regeneration, suggesting new thinning, burning, and planting approaches may be required to meet regeneration restoration objectives.

Changing climatic conditions are increasing overstory tree mortality in forests globally. This restructuring of the distribution of biomass is making already flammable forests more combustible, posing a major challenge for managing the transition to a lower biomass state. In western US dry conifer forests, tree density resulting from over a century of fire-exclusion practices has increased the risk of high-severity wildfire and susceptibility to climate-driven mortality. Reducing dead fuel loads will require new approaches to mitigate risk to the remaining live trees by preparing forests to withstand future wildfire. Here, we used data from the Teakettle Experimental Forest in California to evaluate different prescribed fire burn frequencies and their impact on accumulated dead fuels after a 4-year drought. Increasing burn frequency could reduce surface fuel build-up but comes with additional challenges that will require creativity and experimentation to overcome.

Following a century of fire suppression in western North America, managers use forest restoration treatments to reduce fuel loads and reintroduce key processes like fire. However, annual area burned by wildfire frequently outpaces the application of restoration treatments. As this trend continues under climate change, it is essential that we understand the effects of contemporary wildfires on forest ecosystems and the extent to which post-fire structures are meeting common forest restoration objectives. In this study, we used airborne lidar to evaluate fire effects across yellow pine and mixed conifer (YPMC) forests of California’s Sierra Nevada. We quantified the degree to which forest structures in first-entry burned areas (previously unburned since 1900s) and unburned controls aligned with restoration targets derived from contemporary reference sites. We also identified environmental conditions that contributed to more restorative fire effects. Relative to unburned controls, structural patterns in first-entry burned areas aligned more closely with reference sites. Yet, across all burn severities, first-entry wildfires were only moderately successful at meeting targets for canopy cover (48

Over the last four decades, wildfires in forests of the continental western United States have significantly increased in both size and severity after more than a century of fire suppression and exclusion. Many of these forests historically experienced frequent fire and were fuel limited. To date, fuel reduction treatments have been small and too widely dispersed to have impacted this trend. Currently new land management plans are being developed on most of the 154 National Forests that will guide and support on the ground management practices for the next 15–20 years. During plan development, we recommend that Strategic Fire Zones (SFZs) be identified in large blocks (≥ 2,000 ha) of Federal forest lands, buffered (≥ 1–2.4 km) from the wildland-urban interface for the reintroduction of beneficial fire. In SFZs, lightning ignitions, as well as prescribed and cultural burns, would be used to reduce fuels and restore ecosystem services. Although such Zones have been successfully established in a limited number of western National Parks and Wilderness Areas, we identify extensive remote areas in the western US (8.3–12.7 million ha), most outside of wilderness (85–88

Tree establishment following severe or stand-replacing disturbance is critical for achieving U.S. climate change mitigation goals and for maintaining the co-benefits of intact forest ecosystems. In many contexts, natural post-fire tree regeneration is sufficient to maintain forest cover and associated ecosystem services, but increasingly the pattern and scale of disturbance exceeds ecological thresholds and active reforestation may be warranted. Our capacity to plant trees, however, is not keeping pace with reforestation needs. This shortfall is uniquely apparent in the western U.S., where wildfire size and severity have increased in recent decades and long-term divestment in the reforestation supply chain has limited our ability to respond to existing needs. Here we present an analysis of key facets of both the supply and demand side of reforestation in the western U.S. and address six questions: (1) What is the current backlog of potential reforestation needs driven by high-severity wildfire?; (2) How will increasing wildfire activity through the end of the century affect potential reforestation needs?; (3) What is our capacity to meet current and future reforestation needs?; (4) How can we scale the reforestation supply chain to meet current and future demands?; (5) What approaches to reforestation can promote forest resilience to climate change and wildfire?; and (6) Where are opportunities emerging from recent policy initiatives, innovative public-private partnerships, and natural capital markets for scaling reforestation? Between 1984 and 2000, annual tree planting capacity met post-fire needs but cumulatively over the last two decades (2000 to 2021) it has fallen short of fire-driven needs by an estimated 1.5 million ha (ca. 3.8 million ac). We anticipate this gap will increase 2 to 3 fold by 2050. Scaling up reforestation efforts to close this gap will require increased investment across all facets of the reforestation supply chain, public-private partnerships, and novel approaches to reforestation that increase the resilience of western forests to drought and wildfire. We highlight emerging opportunities from recent policy initiatives and conservation finance for expanding reforestation efforts.

Drawing upon over 100 years of scholarly work on microclimate, we first present an overview of the history, key references, and critical issues surrounding the collection and utilization of microclimate records in ecosystem studies. We place particular emphasis on addressing specific and pressing issues related to the applications of microclimate at the community-ecosystem-landscape level, excluding those of controlled experiment such as growth chambers and greenhouses. Specifically, we: (1) highlight some key issues concerning the collection, quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC), and utilization of microclimatic data in ecosystem studies; (2) revisit microclimatic responses to the structural changes of ecosystems and landscapes; and (3) emphasize the significance of microclimate in understanding major ecosystem/landscape processes and functions. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is particularly emphasized for its calculation and use because of its burgeoning applications in the literature. Case studies for each of the three thematic topics are provided with selected references to demonstrate challenges and solutions. As the scientific community gears up to enhance microclimatic stations, we envision significant increases in the use of smart sensors, wireless access, networking, open databases, and computational capabilities. Understanding and addressing some of the issues raised in this synthesis paper may help advance microclimate research and foster collaboration with other relevant disciplines, such as ecosystem science.

Climate change is increasing the severity and duration of drought events experienced by forest ecosystems. Because water is essential for tree physiological processes, the ability of trees to survive prolonged droughts will largely depend on whether they have access to reliable water sources. While many woody plant species exhibit the ability to shift water sources between different depths of soil and rock water in response to changes in climate and water availability, it is unclear if Sierra Nevada conifers exhibit this plasticity. Here we analysed the δ18O and δ13C values of annual tree rings to determine the water-use patterns of large Sierra Nevada conifers during the 2012-16 California drought and 4 years before this drought event (2004-07). We analysed four species (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf. (Jeffrey pine), Pinus lambertiana Dougl. (sugar pine), Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. Ex Hilderbr (white fir) and Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin (incense-cedar)) across a range of topographic positions to investigate differences in water-use patterns by species and position on the landscape. We found no significant differences in δ18O and δ13C values for the pre-drought and drought periods. This stability in δ18O values suggests that trees did not shift their water-use patterns in response to the 2012-16 drought. We did find species-specific differences in water-use patterns, with incense-cedar exhibiting more depleted δ18O values than all other species. We also found trends that suggest the water source used by a tree may depend on topographic and growing environment attributes such as topographic wetness and the surrounding basal area. Overall, our results suggest that the water source used by trees varies by the species and topographic position, but that Sierra Nevada conifers do not switch their water-use patterns in response to the drought. This lack of plasticity could make Sierra Nevada conifers particularly vulnerable to drought mortality as their historically reliable water sources begin to dry out with climate change.

Contemporary reference sites in California's Sierra Nevada represent areas where a frequent, low-intensity fire regime – an integral ecological process in temperate dry forests – has been reintroduced after several decades of fire suppression. Produced by an intact fire regime, forest structural patterns in these sites are likely more resilient to future disturbances and climate, and thus can provide reference conditions to guide management and ecological research. In this paper, we present a set of 119 delineated contemporary reference sites in the Sierra Nevada yellow pine and mixed-conifer zone along with a suite of key remote sensing-derived forest structure metrics representing conditions within these sites. We also provide a set of summary figures for individual reference sites and sites grouped by dominant climate class. We identified restored frequent-fire landscapes using a combination of fire history, burn severity, management history, and forest type datasets and we delineated individual polygons using catchment basins, fire perimeters, and imagery. Reference sites ranged in size from 101-966 ha with a mean size of 240 ha. Where available (for 59 sites), we used airborne lidar datasets to characterize a suite of key forest structure metrics within reference sites. Across all 119 sites, we provide a set of forest structure metrics produced by the California Forest Observatory. Reference sites were categorized based on their dominant climate class to assist users in identifying the most climatically relevant reference conditions for their project or study area. We encourage the use of the reference sites and associated forest structure datasets for guiding ecologically focused forest management and research in the Sierra Nevada.

Large trees (>= 76.2 cm/>= 30 '' DBH) and especially very large trees (>= 101.6 cm/>= 40 '' DBH) are key structures of Sierra Nevada forests for their ecological function, habitat, and carbon storage. Many of these trees have been lost to historic harvest and more recently to drought and wildfires. Understanding the current frequency and distribution of these large trees is essential to understanding their ecological contribution and management needs. We used airborne lidar to census large trees across three Sierra Nevada landscapes (cumulatively 396 K ha) in lower (dominated by ponderosa pine and mixed conifer) and upper (dominated by red fir) montane forest zones. We used data from a network of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots to interpret our lidar-based results for large tree frequency, species, and ages. The lidar data identified > 8 M large and > 2.7 M very large trees, and their mean densities were similar to those from FIA data. Large portions of our study areas had either no or low densities (<20) of large trees per hectare. We found that large and very large tree concentrations were spatially aggregated with most in denser patches containing 20 to 50 + large trees per hectare. Depending on the study area, these often sizable (>1000 ha) patches of dense large trees can cover 20% to 40% of the landscape. (Patches of denser very large trees cover less of the landscape, typically 5% to 10%). However, these large patches are rarely simple blocks. Instead, they typically form complex amorphous matrices interspersed with patches of forests containing shorter trees or non-forest cover. Crucially, almost all large trees were in stands with high canopy cover, suggesting horizontal fuel continuity and low resilience to future wildfires. For lower montane large trees, canopy cover versus large tree density showed almost a unimodal response with canopy cover of 60% to 80% for locations with > 20 large trees per ha. For upper montane large trees, canopy cover versus large tree density showed a more linear relationship for all three study areas. High levels of canopy cover, especially for lower montane forests, suggest settings in which infilling following decades of fire suppression have created overly dense stands with lower resilience to drought and wildfire. Other studies have documented substantial recent losses of these large trees to both factors. The high canopy cover within which almost all large trees exist emphasizes the need for treatment almost everywhere that large trees are present for lower montane forests. This likely will require treatments both within the stands that contain large trees and across the landscapes in which they are found.

Although recent large wildfires in California forests are well publicized in media and scientific literature, their cumulative effects on forest structure and implications for forest resilience remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated spatial patterns of burn severity for 18 exceptionally large fires and compared their cumulative impacts to the hundreds of smaller fires that have burned across California forests in recent decades. We used a burn severity atlas for over 1,800 fires that burned in predominantly conifer forests between 1985 and 2020 and calculated landscape metrics to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of unburned refugia, low-moderate-severity, and high-severity post-fire effects. Total annual area burned, mean annual fire size, and total annual core area burned at high severity all significantly increased across the study period. Exceptionally large fires (i.e., the top 1% by size) were responsible for 58% and 42% of the cumulative area burned at high and low-moderate severities, respectively, across the study period. With their larger patch sizes, our results suggest that exceptionally large fires coarsen the landscape pattern of California’s forests, reducing their fine-scale heterogeneity which supports much of their biodiversity as well as wildfire and climate resilience. Thus far, most modern post-fire management has focused on restoring forest cover and minimizing ecotype conversion in large, high-severity patches. These large fires, however, have also provided extensive areas of low-moderate severity burns where managers could leverage the wildfire’s initial “treatment” with follow-up fuel reduction treatments to help restore finer-scale forest heterogeneity and fire resilience.

Yellow pine and mixed-conifer (YPMC) forests of California’s Sierra Nevada have experienced widespread fire suppression for over a century, resulting in ingrowth and densification of trees, heavy fuel accumulation, and shifts in species composition. Under warmer and drier climates, these forests are primed for stand-replacing fires and severe drought mortality, requiring management interventions to improve their resilience and mitigate future impacts. Characterizations of structural patterns from functioning frequent-fire systems (e.g., contemporary reference sites) provide insights about emergent properties in these systems, which can be used to inform regional restoration efforts. In this study, we used airborne lidar data to quantify and compare multi-scale structures between contemporary reference sites (i.e., forests with repeat low/moderate-severity fire effects) and control sites (i.e., typical fire-suppressed forests) to identify hierarchical patterns that emerge under a modern, frequent, and low-intensity fire regime. We evaluated structures at the neighborhood- (~1 ha), site- (~100-1000 ha), and among-site- (~1000-10000 ha) levels. We consistently observed a nested and hierarchical set of structural patterns across contemporary reference sites, indicating an emergent and self-organizing property of contemporary frequent-fire forests. High proportions of individual trees, small clumps of 2-4 trees, and open space formed mostly open canopy structures at the neighborhood-level, which were consistently arranged in heterogenous spatial patterns across all sites. In fire suppressed control sites, edaphic factors and other non-fire disturbances sometimes produced heterogeneity at the neighborhood- and site-level, but the degree of heterogeneity was not consistent across sites. Structural patterns in contemporary reference sites suggest improved resilience to future fire and drought; thus, we encourage the use of these metrics to guide and inform multi-scale, resilience-focused management in the Sierra Nevada.

Geospatial polygons representing fire-suppressed control sites against which fire-intact reference sites were compared in Chamberlain et al. (2023). Control sites represent areas with 1) no record of fire history, 2) no record of late 20th century or early 21st century timber management, and 3) no "Fast Change" detected by the Landscape Change Monitoring System dataset. All sites are predominantly within the yellow pine and mixed-conifer zone of California's Sierra Nevada, USA. Polygon boundaries were defined using the NHDPlusV2 catchments, and were manually reshaped using aerial imagery to ensure that polygons were > 100 ha, represented primarily forested areas, and excluded major roads, infrastructure, and major rock outcrops. Detailed description of the methods used to produce this dataset provided in: Chamberlain, C.P., Cova, G.R., Cansler, C.A., North, M.P., Meyer, M.D., Jeronimo, S.M.A., Kane, V.R., 2023. Consistently heterogeneous structures observed at multiple spatial scales across fire-intact reference sites. Forest Ecology and Management.

Fire‐exclusion has acted as a major perturbation on dry conifer forests in the western United States, increasing tree density and, in mixed‐conifer forests, the dominance of shade‐tolerant species. Restoration efforts aim to reverse these effects by reducing stand density, restoring relative proportions of tree species, and reintroducing recurrent fire, but there are limited long‐term data on the effects of repeated burning on tree regeneration. We analyzed two decades of seedling and overstory data from the Teakettle Experimental Forest in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, United States to determine how thinning and repeated burning affect seedling establishment and overstory recruitment. Across treatments, pine seedling densities remained much lower than shade‐tolerant seedling densities. We found repeated burns led to modest increases in sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana ) and substantial increases in incense‐cedar ( Calocedrus decurrens ) seedling densities 4 years postburn. No significant differences in seedling densities among repeated burning treatments were detected for Jeffrey pine ( P. jeffreyi ) or white fir ( Abies concolor ). Estimates of natural midstory recruitment were much higher among white fir and incense‐cedar than pines, even following treatments. However, postharvest planting increased rates of pine midstory recruitment in overstory thinned treatments. Our results suggest that fire‐exclusion may have shifted the ecosystem out of its initial domain of attraction, creating a forest dominated by shade‐tolerant species that exhibits hysteresis by resisting a return to a natural range of variability even after restoring structure and process. Planting pine species may be effective at overcoming this resistance to restore the forest to a pine‐dominated state.

The reestablishment of natural fire regimes can have numerous benefits for forest ecosystems, including the restoration of stand structure through a reduction in tree densities and increased representation of large diameter trees. However, fire effects may depend on how departed the ecosystem is from its historical fire frequency. Red fir (Abies magnifica) forests occupy a broad geographic area across which historical fire return intervals and stand structures vary. Using historical stand inventory data from the Vegetation Type Mapping (VTM) project, we evaluated red fir forests in the Sierra Nevada in California and the Cascade-Klamath region of northwestern California and southern Oregon to determine how reintroduced fire effects vary regionally and if these differences are related to historical fire return intervals or structural conditions. We sampled a total of 29 overlapping fires and found that reestablishing fire in red fir forests consistently restored historical forest structure across a wide geographic range by reducing the density of small trees and maintaining large trees. However, the effect of fire was most evident in the Sierra Nevada where the percent difference in total tree density between unburned and burned plots was significantly greater (77% difference) than in the Cascade-Klamath (53% difference), and burned plots in the Sierra Nevada had significantly lower densities of both small (<30 cm dbh) and medium sized trees (30-60 cm dbh). These stronger fire effects may be related to greater departure from reference fire return intervals in the Sierra Nevada, as well as the region's warmer and drier conditions increasing the availability of fuel to burn and susceptibility of trees to fire-related mortality. We found that departure from reference fire return intervals followed a similar pattern to departure from historical tree density in both study regions. Unburned plots were 61% departed from reference fire return intervals in the Cascade-Klamath and 69% departed in the Sierra Nevada. In these same plots, departure from VTM total tree density estimates were 37% in the Cascade-Klamath and 44% in the Sierra Nevada. We suggest that incorporating historical references for structural conditions together with regional or local estimates of historical fire return intervals contributes to an improved understanding of how reference conditions varied at local and regional scales, and their importance in the restoration of fire-dependent forests.

An estimated 128 M trees died during the 2012-2016 California drought, largely in the southern Sierra Nevada Range. Prescribed burning and mechanical thinning are widely used to reduce fuels and restore ecosystem properties, but it is unclear if these treatments improve tree growth and vigor during extreme drought. This study examined tree growth responses after thinning, prescribed burning, and extreme drought at the Teakettle Experimental Forest, a historically frequent fire mixed-conifer forest in the southern Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Mechanical thinning (no thin, understory thin, and overstory thin) and prescribed burning (unburned, fall burning) were implemented in 2000-2001. Using annual growth data from increment cores, over 10,000 mapped and measured trees, and lidar-derived metrics of solar radiation and topographic wetness, we had two primary questions. First, what were the growth responses to thinning and prescribed burning treatments, and did these responses persist during the 2012-2016 drought? Second, what tree-level attributes and environmental conditions influenced growth responses to treatments and drought? Thinning increased residual tree growth and that response persisted through extreme drought 10-15 years after treatments. Growth responses were higher in overstory versus understory thinning, with differences between thinning types more pronounced during drought. Species-specific growth responses were strongest with overstory thinning, with sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana) and incense-cedar (Calocedrus decurrens) having higher growth responses compared to white fir (Abies concolor) and Jeffery pine (Pinus jeffreyi). For individual trees, factors associated with higher growth responses were declining pretreatment growth trend, smaller tree size, and post-treatment low neighborhood basal area. Growth responses were initially not influenced by topography, but topographic wetness became important during extreme drought. Mechanical thinning resulted in durable increases in residual tree growth rates during extreme drought over a decade after thinning occurred, indicating treatment longevity in mitigating drought stress. In contrast, tree growth did not improve after prescribed burning, likely due to fire effects that reduced surface fuels, but had little effect on reducing tree density. Thinning treatments promoted durable growth responses, but focusing on stand-level metrics may ignore important tree-level attributes such as localized competition and topography associated with higher water availability. Mechanical thinning was effective at improving growth in trees that had been experiencing declining growth trends, but was less effective in improving growth responses in large old trees of higher ecological importance.

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America.