This study investigates the impact of historical policies on photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing, using supply-chain analysis to evaluate their effects on production in Australia, Germany, and the US. Our results show that protective measures, such as high import tariffs, negatively impact PV prices, particularly in the US, where the market price could surge by 178%, reaching USD 0.659/Wp. The study quantifies the supportive policy financial commitments needed for 600 MWp of silicon PV module assembly: USD 252 million in Australia, USD 249 million in Germany, and USD 266 million in the US over 7 years. Additionally, the model assesses the impact of trade barriers, revealing potential minimum sustainable price increases under a trade embargo, an estimated 58% rise in Australia. These findings provide policymakers and stakeholders with actionable insights for informed decisions on PV supply-chain diversification, considering the economic implications of different policy approaches.

AbstractThe rapid development of organic-inorganic hybrid perovskite solar cells has resulted in laboratory-scale devices having power conversion efficiencies that are competitive with commercialised technologies. However, hybrid perovskite solar cells are yet to make an impact beyond the research community, with translation to large-area devices fabricated by industry-relevant manufacturing methods remaining a critical challenge. Here we report the first demonstration of hybrid perovskite solar cell modules, comprising serially-interconnected cells, produced entirely using industrial roll-to-roll printing tools under ambient room conditions. As part of this development, costly vacuum-deposited metal electrodes are replaced with printed carbon electrodes. A high-throughput experiment involving the analysis of batches of 1600 cells produced using 20 parameter combinations enabled rapid optimisation over a large parameter space. The optimised roll-to-roll fabricated hybrid perovskite solar cells show power conversion efficiencies of up to 15.5% for individual small-area cells and 11.0% for serially-interconnected cells in large-area modules. Based on the devices produced in this work, a cost of ~0.7 USD W−1 is predicted for a production rate of 1,000,000 m² per year in Australia, with potential for further significant cost reductions.

Perovskite/silicon (Si) tandem solar cells (TSCs) continue to rapidly advance. The majority of the monolithic perovskite/Si TSCs have been built on heterojunction (HJT) Si solar cells, which have seen limited industrial uptake due to manufacturing cost and concern over the viability of metal electrodes and transparent conductive oxides (TCOs) incorporating expensive elements. In this work, we demonstrate that high efficiencies of perovskite/Si TSCs can be achieved with Si bottom cells based on a double-side poly-Si/Si dioxide (SiO2) passivating contact (poly-Si cell) without silver or TCOs, fabricated using mass-production techniques. Meanwhile, a novel low-absorption, dopant-free bilayer-structured hole transport layer (HTL) composed of ultra-thin poly(N,N '-bis-4-butylphenyl-N,N '-bisphenyl)benzidine (Poly-TPD) and 2,2 ',7,7 '-tetra(N,N-di-p-tolyl)amino-9,9-spirobifluorene (Spiro-TTB) double layers was developed for the perovskite top cell, which passivates the perovskite surface and enhances the near-interface conductivity, thus increasing the open-circuit voltage and fill factor. A power conversion efficiency of more than 29% was achieved, the highest for a perovskite/Si TSC based on poly-Si bottom cells and/or n-i-p perovskite top cells reported to date. Moreover, the tandem cells exhibit exceptional thermal and light stability, retaining their original output without loss after undergoing 1750 hours of light-dark cycles. Under continuous one-sun illumination and a bias near the maximum power point at 55 +/- 5 degrees C, the tandem devices maintained 93% and 89% of their initial PCE after 500 hours and 1782 hours, respectively. These results pave the way for large-scale manufacturing of industrially viable perovskite/Si TSCs in the near future.

Currently, single-layer antireflection coated (SLARC) solar glass has a dominant market share of 95% compared to glass with other coatings or no coating, for Si PV modules. This antireflection coating (ARC) results in an efficiency gain of 2-3%. However, there are issues with these SLARCs: (1) solar cell warming due to increased sub-bandgap light absorption (by +0.4 similar to 1.2 K), counteracting the cell current gain and accelerating the aging of the solar panels, and (2) poor durability due to the coating's porous structure (typically lasting <= 5 years). This paper aims to develop a non-porous multilayer coating (MLC) that is more durable and will act as a spectrally selective filter for solar modules. Studies have been conducted on MLCs in terms of optical, microstructure, mechanical, and durability properties compared with commercial single-layer AR coatings. The MLCs showed superior performance in durability and benefit in reducing parasitic heat absorption in the non-usable wavelength range. Also, a techno-economic analysis model based on the multifunctional coating specifically to evaluate economic benefits has been developed.

The industry for producing silicon solar cells and modules has grown remarkably over the past decades, with more than a 100-fold reduction in price over the past 45 years. The main solar cell fabrication technology has shifted over that time and is currently dominated by the passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC). Other technologies are expected to increase in market share, including tunnel-oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) and heterojunction technology (HJT). In this paper, we examine the cost potential for using atomic layer deposition (ALD) to form transition metal oxide (TMO) layers ( MoOx, TiOx and aluminium-doped zinc oxide [AZO]) to use as lower cost alternatives of the p-doped, n-doped and indium tin oxide (ITO) layers, respectively, the layers normally used in HJT solar cells. Using a bottom-up cost and uncertainty model with equipment cost data and process experience in the lab, we find that the production cost of these variations will likely be lower per wafer than standard HJT, with the main cost drivers being the cost of the ALD precursors at high-volume production. We then considered what efficiency is required for these sequences to be cost effective in $/W and discuss whether these targets are technically feasible. This work motivates further work in developing these ALD TMO processes to increase their efficiency towards their theoretical limits to take advantage of the processing cost advantage.

Driven by the growing dominance of balance of system costs in photovoltaic installations, next-generation solar cell technologies must deliver significant increases in power conversion efficiency. Presently, the most promising combination of facile fabrication and power conversion efficiency potential is found in tandem solar cells (TSCs) comprising silicon (Si) bottom cells with wide-bandgap perovskite top cells. However, unsolved issues in perovskite stability have important implications for real-world energy yields, challenging the prospect of widespread commercialization. Here, we present an overview of the current state of the art in stability of perovskite–Si TSCs and elucidate key tandem-specific degradation mechanisms at the cell and module levels. From this perspective, we consider the impact of perovskite phase segregation and strain, the novel challenges faced by perovskite films on textured surfaces and when using TSC-specific electrode designs as well as the exacerbating effects of current matching constraints. We also consider economic factors and determine the lifetime energy yield necessary for perovskite–Si TSCs to compete with single-junction Si solar cells. To conclude, we outline key future research directions to achieve the long-term stability necessary for the successful commercialization of this promising TSC technology.

Metal-halide perovskites have emerged as a promising class of next -generation solar cells. Here, we assess what lifetimes and effi-ciencies perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have to reach to lower the price of commercial residential photovoltaics (PVs) further. We find that using light and flexible substrates, as opposed to heavy and rigid ones, reduces the total installed system cost of PSCs, culminating in a lower balance of system (BOS) cost, as it is possible to use different mounting methods. Concretely, we analyze the scenario when the modules are directly placed onto a roof without requiring a racking system. This reduces both labor and material costs. Furthermore, it effectively lowers the necessary efficiency or life-time of PSCs (T80 value) to achieve the same electricity cost as commercialized silicon. For 2021, we find that a rigid perovskite module with 17% efficiency would need at least 24 years to become competitive with residential-installed silicon. In comparison, a light, flexible module with the same efficiency would only need to last 19 years. In 2030, with the accordingly projected BOS costs, a 23% effi-cient perovskite module would need to last 24 years if rigid but only 17 years if flexible. Finally, we extend our analysis toward tandem structures with perovskite-silicon or all-perovskite tandem archi-tectures. We find that flexible PSCs present a promising commercial-ization route because it can enable low manufacturing and BOS deployment costs, which opens up commercial viability at lower ef-ficiencies or lifetimes.

Determining the lifetime of solar photovoltaic modules is integral to planning future installations and ensuring effective end-of-life management. The lifetime of photovoltaic modules is most commonly considered to be 25 years based on performance guarantees of 80% power output after 25 years of operation; however, influences including climatic conditions, social behaviour, fiscal policy, and technological improvements have the potential to prompt early replacement. Therefore, this work aims to estimate the operating lifetime of photovoltaic panels more accurately in Australia by considering a variety of technical, economic, and social reasons for decommissioning. Based on a range of sources including government organisations, other policymakers, regulators and advisors, energy suppliers, researchers, recyclers, and manufacturers, three lifetime models—power decrease, damage and technical failures, and economic motivation—were developed and then weighted in three scenarios to form overall views of panel lifetime in Australia. In addition, it was concluded that the module lifetime will vary considerably between countries due to differences in market factors. Therefore, these results specifically address Australia as most of the input data were sourced from Australian industry reports and Australian photovoltaic systems and interpreted within the context of the Australian photovoltaic market. However, the methodology of estimating lifetime based on both technical and non-technical factors can be applied to other scenarios by using country-specific data. With the popularity of photovoltaic technology beginning in the early 2010s and given the practical lifetimes of 15–20 years found in this work, Australia will need to act swiftly within the next three years to responsibly manage the looming solar panel waste.

The recycling of silicon photovoltaic modules is technically viable, but often not feasible economically due to reasons that vary from high processing cost to low waste volumes that do not justify investment cost. In this study, a novel, simple, cost-effective and environmentally friendly processing method is proposed. The process consists of module deframing, laminate shredding and material concentration using electrostatic separation. The latter outputs two fractions: a valuable mixture of silver, copper, aluminum and silicon, and a mixture of mostly glass, silicon and polymers. The valuable mixture accounts for only 2-3 wt% of the total module, which can be forwarded to the downstream industry for further refinement. This paper evaluates the technical aspects of the process (quantifies material separation, energy and time) while using life cycle assessment and life cycle costing to evaluate the environmental impacts and economic prospects, respectively. The results are compared to a full recovery alternative (FRELP) and to landfilling. Environmentally, a full recovery is preferred, followed by the proposed process, both of which have a net positive impact and are better than landfilling the whole module. Economic assessment shows the process has potential to be more profitable than FRELP i) at lower waste volumes (smaller than 4 kt/y), because of the smaller equipment capital cost, ii) if there is no market for the recovered glass, which is currently the case in many locations or iii) when the end-processing industry is located afar, since only the valuable mixture would require shipping.

Perovskite solar cells have attracted tremendous research and development activity in recent years due to their excellent optoelectronic material properties and ease of fabrication. They are uniquely attractive for building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) due to their potential to add value in terms of aesthetics. Here, we review the demonstrations of perovskite solar cells suitable for window applications, focusing on their unique advantages associated with transparency control and color control, both statically and dynamically. Our calculations show that the relationship between power conversion efficiency and visible transparency is not strictly linear. Respectable power conversion efficiency (6%–14%) with high (e.g., 90%–100%) visible transparency is theoretically possible. Perovskite cells also produce higher power conversion efficiencies under low-intensity and diffuse light, making them promising for vertical facades. Reported field testing and cost analysis are also summarized. Under each section, research and development opportunities for the widespread implementation of perovskite-based solar windows are presented.

In a recent issue of Nature, Helveston et al. estimate cost savings to users of photovoltaic modules arising from the concentration of manufacturing in China. However, concentration presents a supply chain risk, and there are plans to diversify this with domestic production. Are the resultant higher costs worth it?

With increasingly competitive pricing and net-zero targets driving the growing demand for solar photovoltaics, new manufacturing supply-chain models are under consideration to increase local resilience and to ensure continuity of supply. We report a cost model that assesses the opportunity for local module assembly in a competitive global market context and extends techno-economic analysis to include important supply-chain aspects of trade and logistics costs. The initial analysis focuses on the economic viability of photovoltaic (PV) module assembly at different scales in Australia and then generalizes to include the global supply chain. The analysis shows that, with economies of scale and sufficient demand, local module assembly from imported materials can compete with the price of imported modules. Key cost drivers and their impact on profitability are discussed in the light of broader benefits and potential policy mechanisms that influence decision-making that can support investments in domestic solar module manufacturing.

Photovoltaic module prices have typically decreased faster than projections. There are two methods usually used for these projections; cumulative market shipment experience curves or detailed bottom-up cost calculations for specific technologies. The former suffers from a lack of specificity in terms of technology or changing market situations, and the latter from a lack of quantifiable uncertainty. We present an alternative bottom-up future cost model for a new vertically integrated c-Si PV factory, from poly silicon to module, incorporating input ranges and uncertainty via a Monte Carlo analysis. Neglecting profit margins, the majority of projected scenarios for global 2025 module manufacturing cost fall between 0.10 US$/W and 0.18 US$/W, due mostly to reductions in raw materials costs for module fabrication. The lowest 10th percentile projections, below 0.10 US$/W, would be realised by the largest scale manufacturers with access to very low materials costs and low operational costs. The model projects production cost learning rates between 29% and 43% compared to a long-term historical average module selling price learning rate of 24%. Analysis of the competitive position of silicon heterojunction cell technology in combination with multi-wire module technology is performed. Access to the multi-wire technology improves competitiveness of 2025 manufacturing in high labour rate countries if silver prices remain high and the cost of the multi-wire material is reduced in line with other materials, motivating continued development of this technology. Finally, continued reduction in labour intensity, through automation and throughput will enable more competitive manufacturing in higher labour cost locations.

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have been intensively studied as a future photovoltaic (PV) technology. Yet, its potential for large-scale application is unclear due to the barriers of short lifetime, scale-up challenges, and heavy metal usage in the perovskite layer. As a result, the question becomes how to develop PSCs towards industrialization and this determines whether PSCs can share part of the PV market with c-Si solar cells in the future. A thorough sustainability assessment, including technological, economic, and environmental perspectives, and their trade-offs, of large-scale PSCs is imperative to investigate the pathway to develop this technology. The results show that extended lifetime is one of the prerequisites for having low cost and environmental impacts, but sustainability performance can be improved and even comparable with c-Si solar cells if certain strategies, such as using inorganic transport materials and alloyed perovskite are followed.

The manufacturing costs of CZTS with different substrates, major cost drivers, and cost reduction strategies are analyzed. Potential market niches of CZTS products and techno-economic requirements for CZTS commercialization are explored.

The objective of the paper is to describe the application of artificial intelligence software to predict formation evaluation logs (compressional sonic, shear sonic and density) using only gamma ray, and resistivity log data and drilling dynamics data as received by the electronic drilling recorder (EDR). The software was applied real-time as a well was being drilled in deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Thorough examination and conditioning of EDR and wireline data give way to a training model construction for the artificial neural network (ANN) using full suites of log-data in offset wells. Next, a neural network architecture and associated hyperparameters are chosen and tested. The fully trained and validated model is applied to the gamma ray, resistivity and EDR of the target well while drilling. Real-time EDR and wireline data flow via WITSML from rig to cloud and data is delivered to the client. The results of the study indicate the simulated log data were comparable to those measured from conventional logging tools over the study area. In both blind well tests the density agreed with the conventional log results within 1.1 % and the compressional within 2.51 % (Figure 1). Each of these is well within the range of variance expected of repeat runs of a conventional logging tool. A primary driver for near real-time logs was to confirm structural depth of the target sands along the well bore. There was a depleted sand below the expected TD of the well that, if encountered, could have led to total losses and possible loss of the wellbore. It was critical to have real-time logs to characterize the sands above the depleted sand, using every possible petrophysical and geologic character to refine the log correlation. This integration of all the logs provided the best interpretation of the sand quality and led toward the completion decision. AI-based logs are a highly cost-effective alternative to LWD logging. It presents an environmentally friendly approach as there is no logging personnel on-site and no expensive and potentially dangerous nuclear sources in the hole The deployment of this patented, machine learning-driven, real-time simulation of formation evaluation logs is unique in using only gamma ray, resistivity and drilling data. It is particularly useful in the overburden section where formation evaluation tools are often not run for cost reasons, in side-tracks, in HP/HT settings and operational risk mitigation. It provides additive data for other petrophysical/QI/rock property analyses including seismic inversion, shale content, porosity, log QC/editing, real-time LWD, drilling optimization, etc.

Photovoltaic (PV) panel manufacturing is increasing worldwide, which subsequently increases the amount of waste PV. This study proposes to recycle waste PV using organic solvent delamination followed by downstream thermal and leaching procedures. Firstly, experimental data is obtained using small commercial modules by replicating a recycling route taken from the literature. Based on the experimental results, life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) are applied to evaluate the experimental and optimized industry scale processes. Results show that the main profitable recycling avenues are for aluminum frame and junction box removal; and that downstream processes can separate and recover all the remaining materials, but not profitably. The laboratory and high-throughput-optimized processes, considering the median costs and revenues, have a net cost of 29.00 and 3.30 USD per module, respectively. The complete recovery of materials using the proposed method is unlikely to be profitable and this may only be achievable where labor is not expensive. Alternatively, the complete recycling of waste PV could be made economically viable by reducing process time, increasing automation and/or providing financial subsidies. The environmental analysis, however, shows that the optimized process modelled here has a positive net environmental impact. The results are also compared against the cost/environmental impact of landfilling such waste. In summary, the proposed recycling route is capable of completely recovering the main materials in waste PV (aluminum frames, junction box, silver, copper tabbing, silicon, backsheet and unbroken glass) and can have a positive environmental impact, but it is not economically profitable.

The challenge of how to handle large volumes of silicon photovoltaic (PV) panels at the end of their 30-year lifetime is emerging. Now, a new study reveals that the efficacy of recycling and reuse interventions is underestimated if social factors such as the attitude of PV owners and the influence of peers are not considered.

Stacking two photovoltaic (PV) cells to form a tandem structure can improve the efficiency of PV modules, and if achieved at sufficiently low cost, could dominate the PV market in the future. Rapid progress in silicon–perovskite tandem (SPT) cell efficiency has been made, so cost modelling is becoming important in analysing the commercial attractiveness of this approach. While previous cost modelling assumed idealised production processes, this work focuses first on six demonstrated SPT sequences using both homojunction and heterojunction bottom silicon cells, analysed in detail using a bottom‐up cost and uncertainty model and then compared with other reported SPT high‐efficiency cells. This identifies cost barriers in the perovskite cell, including high‐cost hole transport material (HTM) and electron transport layer (ETL) materials such as (2,2 ′ ,7,7 ′ ‐tetrakis[ N , N ‐di(4‐methoxyphenyl)amino]‐9,9 ′ ‐spirobifluorene [SPIRO] and [6,6]‐phenyl‐C61‐butyric acid methyl ester [PCBM]), and the use of spin coating which has a high wastage rate. Once these cost issues are solved, the silicon cell cost becomes important, and the use of lower cost homojunction cells with p‐type wafers can further reduce costs. A hypothetical medium term low‐cost sequence that combines the lowest cost parts of the analysed sequences and an improved perovskite deposition process has a projected likely cost of $1.50/cell, which if combined with 25% efficiency would give a favourable levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) compared with industry standard c‐Si cells. This analysis guides research directions to address cost issues in parallel with higher efficiencies in this technology area.

Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) solar cells formed using n-type Cz silicon wafers are attracting increasing industrial interest. Cheaper p-type Cz silicon wafers can also be used to form SHJ cells; however, they achieve lower efficiencies. In this work, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to provide a comprehensive commercial comparison between n-type and p-type wafers, considering a wide range of uncertainty in the cost of production, the cost of the wafers, and cell performance. The most critical factors influencing the commercial comparison between wafer types were identified as the difference in cell efficiency, the difference in cost between n-type and p-type wafers, and the SHJ processing costs. The analysis provides a target for p-type SHJ solar cells of being within 0.4% absolute of that obtained with n-type wafers. This work motivates and sets research targets for the development of SHJ solar cells fabricated on p-type wafers.