Sequentially solving similar optimization problems under strict runtime constraints is essential for many applications, such as robot control, autonomous driving, and portfolio management. The performance of local optimization methods in these settings is sensitive to the initial solution: poor initialization can lead to slow convergence or suboptimal solutions. To address this challenge, we propose learning to predict multiple diverse initial solutions given parameters that define the problem instance. We introduce two strategies for utilizing multiple initial solutions: (i) a single-optimizer approach, where the most promising initial solution is chosen using a selection function, and (ii) a multiple-optimizers approach, where several optimizers, potentially run in parallel, are each initialized with a different solution, with the best solution chosen afterward. Notably, by including a default initialization among predicted ones, the cost of the final output is guaranteed to be equal or lower than with the default initialization. We validate our method on three optimal control benchmark tasks: cart-pole, reacher, and autonomous driving, using different optimizers: DDP, MPPI, and iLQR. We find significant and consistent improvement with our method across all evaluation settings and demonstrate that it efficiently scales with the number of initial solutions required.

Motion prediction, recently popularized under the term world models, refers to anticipating the future states of agents or the future evolution of a scene, which is rooted in human cognition to bridge perception and decision-making, enabling us to anticipate, adapt, and act within an everchanging world. It lies at the core of intelligent autonomous systems, such as robotics and self-driving cars, to safely operate in dynamic and human-robot-mixed environments, and also informs broader time-series challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in rapidly updated benchmark performance. However, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they are often found to struggle to generalize to open-world settings and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between reality and benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and fail to capture real-world complexity. To address the pressing need for problem settings that better reflect real-world challenges and guide future research, this paper focuses on revisiting the generalization and applicability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion applications. We first provide a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modelling methods, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then revisit two fundamental problems: 1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks – it takes input from the localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control. 2) how to generalize motion prediction models from limited seen scenarios/datasets to the open-world settings. We conclude by highlighting crucial challenges and open problems for future research. By doing so, we aim to recalibrate the community’s efforts, fostering progress that is not only measurable but also meaningful for real-world applications. The project webpage corresponding to this paper can be found here Link to the website of Trends in Motion Prediction Toward Deployable and Generalizable Autonomy: A Revisit and Perspectives

Monolithic vision-action models represent an emerging paradigm in autonomous driving. However, this architecture produces token sequences that quickly exceed real-time computational budgets when encoding extended temporal context for complex interactions. While approaches like linear transformers and external memory try to make the context lightweight, token compression is most compatible with the architecture as it requires no backbone modifications. Yet existing compression adopts rule-based heuristics like temporal decay, decoupled from planning, risking loss of decision-critical information. We propose COMPACT-VA, a planning-aligned working memory framework built on conditional VQ-VAE, compressing extended context into bounded representations. Compression is conditioned on both historical trajectory and a learned planning intent that the posterior encoder distills from future trajectories during training, while the prior encoder learns to predict it from compressed observations. The compressed memory, concatenated with the predicted latent, feeds the policy for end-to-end optimization, planning with retained decision-critical information. We evaluate on high-signal dynamic scenarios where historical context is most critical for behavior correctness (e.g., stop, yield, or proceed), and accordingly design behavioral metrics. Under comparable token budgets, we achieve >6

Traffic simulation aims to learn a policy for traffic agents that, when unrolled in closed-loop, faithfully recovers the joint distribution of trajectories observed in the real world. Inspired by large language models, tokenized multi-agent policies have recently become the state-of-the-art in traffic simulation. However, they are typically trained through open-loop behavior cloning, and thus suffer from covariate shift when executed in closed-loop during simulation. In this work, we present Closest Among Top-K (CAT-K) rollouts, a simple yet effective closed-loop fine-tuning strategy to mitigate covariate shift. CAT-K fine-tuning only requires existing trajectory data, without reinforcement learning or generative adversarial imitation. Concretely, CAT-K fine-tuning enables a small 7M-parameter tokenized traffic simulation policy to outperform a 102M-parameter model from the same model family, achieving the top spot on the Waymo Sim Agent Challenge leaderboard at the time of submission. The code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/catk.

affect the performance of learned models in selfdriving vehicles (SDVs). While this is a well-established problem, prior work has mostly explored naive solutions such as finetuning, focusing on the motion prediction task. In this work, we explore novel adaptation strategies for differentiable autonomy stacks (structured policy) consisting of prediction, planning, and control, perform evaluation in closed-loop, and investigate the often-overlooked issue of catastrophic forgetting. Specifically, we introduce two simple yet effective techniques: a low-rank residual decoder (LoRD) and multi-task fine-tuning. Through experiments across three models conducted on two real-world autonomous driving datasets (nuPlan, exiD), we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and highlight a significant performance gap between open-loop and closed-loop evaluation in prior approaches. Our approach improves forgetting by up to 23.33% and the closed-loop out-of-distribution driving score by 9.93% in comparison to standard fine-tuning. https://github.com/rst-tu- dortmund/LoRD

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

Autonomous driving policies are typically trained via open-loop behavior cloning of human demonstrations. However, such policies suffer from covariate shift when deployed in closed loop, leading to compounding errors. We introduce Rollouts as Demonstrations (RoaD), a simple and efficient method to mitigate covariate shift by leveraging the policy's own closed-loop rollouts as additional training data. During rollout generation, RoaD incorporates expert guidance to bias trajectories toward high-quality behavior, producing informative yet realistic demonstrations for fine-tuning. This approach enables robust closed-loop adaptation with orders of magnitude less data than reinforcement learning, and avoids restrictive assumptions of prior closed-loop supervised fine-tuning (CL-SFT) methods, allowing broader applications domains including end-to-end driving. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RoaD on WOSAC, a large-scale traffic simulation benchmark, where it performs similar or better than the prior CL-SFT method; and in AlpaSim, a high-fidelity neural reconstruction-based simulator for end-to-end driving, where it improves driving score by 41% and reduces collisions by 54%.

We present STORM, a spatio-temporal reconstruction model designed for reconstructing dynamic outdoor scenes from sparse observations. Existing dynamic reconstruction methods often rely on per-scene optimization, dense observations across space and time, and strong motion supervision, resulting in lengthy optimization times, limited generalization to novel views or scenes, and degenerated quality caused by noisy pseudo-labels for dynamics. To address these challenges, STORM leverages a data-driven Transformer architecture that directly infers dynamic 3D scene representations—parameterized by 3D Gaussians and their velocities—in a single forward pass. Our key design is to aggregate 3D Gaussians from all frames using self-supervised scene flows, transforming them to the target timestep to enable complete (i.e., "amodal") reconstructions from arbitrary viewpoints at any moment in time. As an emergent property, STORM automatically captures dynamic instances and generates high-quality masks using only reconstruction losses. Extensive experiments on public datasets show that STORM achieves precise dynamic scene reconstruction, surpassing state-of-the-art per-scene optimization methods (+4.3 to 6.6 PSNR) and existing feed-forward approaches (+2.1 to 4.7 PSNR) in dynamic regions. STORM reconstructs large-scale outdoor scenes in 200ms, supports real-time rendering, and outperforms competitors in scene flow estimation, improving 3D EPE by 0.422m and Acc5 by 28.02%. Beyond reconstruction, we showcase four additional applications of our model, illustrating the potential of self-supervised learning for broader dynamic scene understanding. For more details, please visit our project at https://jiawei-yang.github.io/STORM/.

Motion prediction, the anticipation of future agent states or scene evolution, is rooted in human cognition, bridging perception and decision-making. It enables intelligent systems, such as robots and self-driving cars, to act safely in dynamic, human-involved environments, and informs broader time-series reasoning challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in quickly evolving benchmark results. Yet, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they often struggle to generalize to open-world conditions and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between research benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and real-world complexity. To address this gap, this survey revisits the generalization and deployability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on the applications of robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion. We first offer a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modeling strategies, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then study two key challenges: (1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks - it takes input from the localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control. 2) how to generalize motion prediction models from limited seen scenarios/datasets to the open-world settings. Throughout the paper, we highlight critical open challenges to guide future work, aiming to recalibrate the community's efforts, fostering progress that is not only measurable but also meaningful for real-world applications. The project webpage corresponding to this paper can be found here https://trends-in-motion-prediction- 2025.github.io/.

We propose Filtering Inversion (FINV), a learning framework and optimization process that predicts a renderable 3D object representation from one or few partial views. FINV addresses the challenge of synthesizing novel views of objects from partial observations, spanning cases where the object is not entirely in view, is partially occluded, or is only observed from similar views. To achieve this, FINV learns shape priors by training a 3D generative model. At inference, given one or more views of a novel real-world object, FINV first finds a set of latent codes for the object by inverting the generative model from multiple initial seeds. Maintaining the set of latent codes, FINV filters and resamples them after receiving each new observation, akin to particle filtering. The generator is then finetuned for each latent code on the available views in order to adapt to novel objects. We show that FINV successfully synthesizes novel views of real-world objects (e.g., chairs, tables, and cars), even if the generative prior is trained only on synthetic objects. The ability to address the sim-to-real problem allows FINV to be used for object categories without real-world datasets. FINV achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple real-world datasets, recovers object shape and texture from partial and sparse views, is robust to occlusion, and is able to incrementally improves its representation with more observations.

We present a novel perspective on the design, use, and role of uncertainty measures for learned modules in an autonomous system. While in the current literature uncertainty measures are produced for standalone modules without considering the broader system context, in our work we explicitly consider the role of decision-making under uncertainty in illuminating how “good” an uncertainty measure is. Our insights are centered around quantifying the ways in which being uncertainty-aware makes a system more robust. Firstly, we use level set generation tools to produce a measure for system robustness and use this measure to compare system designs, thus placing uncertainty quantification in the context of system performance and evaluation metrics. Secondly, we use the concept of specification generation from systems theory to produce a formulation under which a designer can simultaneously constrain the properties of an uncertainty measure and analyze the efficacy of the decision-making-under-uncertainty algorithm used by the system. We apply our analyses to two real-world and complex autonomous systems, one for autonomous driving and another for aircraft runway incursion detection, helping to form a toolbox for an uncertainty-aware system designer to produce more effective and robust systems.

In highly interactive driving scenarios, the actions of one agent greatly influence those of its neighbors. Planning safe motions for autonomous vehicles (AVs) in such interactive environments, therefore, requires reasoning about the impact of the ego's intended motion plan on nearby agents' behavior. Deep-learning-based models have recently achieved considerable success in trajectory prediction and many models in the literature allow for ego-conditioned prediction. However, leveraging ego-conditioned prediction remains challenging in downstream planning due to the complex nature of neural networks, limiting the planner structure to simple types, e.g., sampling-based planners. Despite the ability of gradient-based planning algorithms, such as model predictive control (MPC), to generate fine-grained high-quality motion plans, it is difficult for them to leverage ego-conditioned prediction due to their iterative nature and need for gradients. We present Interactive Joint Planning (IJP), which bridges MPC with learned prediction models in a computationally scalable manner to provide us with the best of both the worlds. In particular, IJP optimizes over the joint behavior of the ego and the surrounding agents and leverages deep-learned prediction models as prediction priors that the join trajectory optimization tries to stay close to. Furthermore, by leveraging free-end homotopy classes-a novel concept that we introduce in this letter-IJP efficiently searches over diverse motion plans. Closed-loop simulation results show that IJP significantly outperforms baselines without joint optimization or running sampling-based planning.

Motion prediction and cost evaluation are vital components in the decision-making system of autonomous vehicles. However, existing methods often ignore the importance of cost learning and treat them as separate modules. In this study, we employ a tree-structured policy planner and propose a differentiable joint training framework for both ego-conditioned prediction and cost models, resulting in a direct improvement of the final planning performance. For conditional prediction, we introduce a query-centric Transformer model that performs efficient ego-conditioned motion prediction. For planning cost, we propose a learnable context-aware cost function with latent interaction features, facilitating differentiable joint learning. We validate our proposed approach using the real-world nuPlan dataset and its associated planning test platform. Our framework not only matches state-of-the-art planning methods but outperforms other learning-based methods in planning quality, while operating more efficiently in terms of runtime. We show that joint training delivers significantly better performance than separate training of the two modules. Additionally, we find that tree-structured policy planning outperforms the conventional single-stage planning approach.

We propose DistillNeRF, a self-supervised learning framework addressing the challenge of understanding 3D environments from limited 2D observations in outdoor autonomous driving scenes. Our method is a generalizable feedforward model that predicts a rich neural scene representation from sparse, single-frame multi-view camera inputs with limited view overlap, and is trained self-supervised with differentiable rendering to reconstruct RGB, depth, or feature images. Our first insight is to exploit per-scene optimized Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) by generating dense depth and virtual camera targets from them, which helps our model to learn enhanced 3D geometry from sparse non-overlapping image inputs. Second, to learn a semantically rich 3D representation, we propose distilling features from pre-trained 2D foundation models, such as CLIP or DINOv2, thereby enabling various downstream tasks without the need for costly 3D human annotations. To leverage these two insights, we introduce a novel model architecture with a two-stage lift-splat-shoot encoder and a parameterized sparse hierarchical voxel representation. Experimental results on the NuScenes and Waymo NOTR datasets demonstrate that DistillNeRF significantly outperforms existing comparable state-of-the-art self-supervised methods for scene reconstruction, novel view synthesis, and depth estimation; and it allows for competitive zero-shot 3D semantic occupancy prediction, as well as open-world scene understanding through distilled foundation model features. Demos and code will be available at https://distillnerf.github.io/.

Reasoning with occluded traffic agents is a significant open challenge for planning for autonomous vehicles. Recent deep learning models have shown impressive results for predicting occluded agents based on the behaviour of nearby visible agents; however, as we show in experiments, these models are difficult to integrate into downstream planning. To this end, we propose Bi-level Variational Occlusion Models (BiVO), a two-step generative model that first predicts likely locations of occluded agents, and then generates likely trajectories for the occluded agents. In contrast to existing methods, BiVO outputs a trajectory distribution which can then be sampled from and integrated into standard downstream planning. We evaluate the method in closed-loop replay simulation using the real-world nuScenes dataset. Our results suggest that BiVO can successfully learn to predict occluded agent trajectories, and these predictions lead to better subsequent motion plans in critical scenarios.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) need to reason about the multimodal behavior of neighboring agents while planning their own motion. Many existing trajectory planners seek a single trajectory that performs well under all plausible futures simultaneously, ignoring bi-directional interactions and thus leading to overly conservative plans. Policy planning, whereby the ego agent plans a policy that reacts to the environment's multimodal behavior, is a promising direction as it can account for the action-reaction interactions between the AV and the environment. However, most existing policy planners do not scale to the complexity of real autonomous vehicle applications: they are either not compatible with modern deep learning prediction models, not interpretable, or not able to generate high quality trajectories. To fill this gap, we propose Tree Policy Planning (TPP), a policy planner that is compatible with state-of-the-art deep learning prediction models, generates multistage motion plans, and accounts for the influence of ego agent on the environment behavior. The key idea of TPP is to reduce the continuous optimization problem into a tractable discrete Markov Decision Process (MDP) through the construction of two tree structures: an ego trajectory tree for ego trajectory options, and a scenario tree for multi-modal ego-conditioned environment predictions. We demonstrate the efficacy of TPP in closed-loop simulations based on real-world nuScenes dataset and results show that TPP scales to realistic AV scenarios and significantly outperforms non-policy baselines.

Autonomous vehicles must often contend with conflicting planning requirements, e.g., safety and comfort could be at odds with each other if avoiding a collision calls for slamming the brakes. To resolve such conflicts, assigning importance ranking to rules (i.e., imposing a rule hierarchy) has been proposed, which, in turn, induces rankings on trajectories based on the importance of the rules they satisfy. On one hand, imposing rule hierarchies can enhance interpretability, but introduce combinatorial complexity to planning; while on the other hand, differentiable reward structures can be leveraged by modern gradient-based optimization tools, but are less interpretable and unintuitive to tune. In this paper, we present an approach to equivalently express rule hierar-chies as differentiable reward structures amenable to modern gradient-based optimizers, thereby, achieving the best of both worlds. We achieve this by formulating rank-preserving reward functions that are monotonic in the rank of the trajectories induced by the rule hierarchy; i.e., higher ranked trajectories receive higher reward. Equipped with a rule hierarchy and its corresponding rank-preserving reward function, we develop a two-stage planner that can efficiently resolve conflicting planning requirements. We demonstrate that our approach can generate motion plans in ~7-10 Hz for various challenging road navigation and intersection negotiation scenarios.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks are typically built in a modular fashion, with explicit components performing detection, tracking, prediction, planning, control, etc. While modularity improves reusability, interpretability, and generalizability, it also suffers from compounding errors, information bottlenecks, and integration challenges. To overcome these challenges, a prominent approach is to convert the AV stack into an end-to-end neural network and train it with data. While such approaches have achieved impressive results, they typically lack interpretability and reusability, and they eschew principled analytical components, such as planning and control, in favor of deep neural networks. To enable the joint optimization of AV stacks while retaining modularity, we present DiffStack, a differentiable and modular stack for prediction, planning, and control. Crucially, our model-based planning and control algorithms leverage recent advancements in differentiable optimization to produce gradients, enabling optimization of upstream components, such as prediction, via backpropagation through planning and control. Our results on the nuScenes dataset indicate that end-to-end training with DiffStack yields substantial improvements in open-loop and closed-loop planning metrics by, e.g., learning to make fewer prediction errors that would affect planning. Beyond these immediate benefits, DiffStack opens up new opportunities for fully data-driven yet modular and interpretable AV architectures. Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/diffstack