This study employs Grond, a probabilistic earthquake source inversion framework, to analyse 129 moderate to strong earthquakes (Mw 3.5–6.4) in Albania and the surrounding region. Using seismic data accessed via FDSN and a locally developed velocity model, moment tensor inversion is conducted to characterize complex regional seismicity, revealing a tectonic regime that includes thrust, normal, and strike-slip faulting. While the analysis primarily focuses on natural seismic events, the study emphasizes moment tensor inversion’s utility in distinguishing between natural and human-made events when necessary. The modelling incorporates deviatoric and double-couple source types, utilizing radial, transverse, and vertical waveform components in the frequency range of 0.01–0.07 Hz. Forward modelling is based on pre-calculated Green’s Functions (GFs) from Pyrocko GF Stores, created with the fomosto tool and optimized for layered media using the QSEIS method. This approach enhances computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. To mitigate bias and quantify uncertainties, Grond integrates advanced bootstrapping and ensemble based diagnostics, ensuring robust source parameter estimation even with noise or modelling limitations. This research strengthens our understanding of regional tectonic processes by providing reliable moment tensor solutions that support interpretation of the stress regime and the kinematics of active faults.

The Albanides form a segment of the southern Alpine orogenic belt, connecting the northern Dinarides to the southern Hellenides. These NW-SE-trending, predominantly west-verging chains border the eastern Adriatic Basin, where thrust and strike-slip structures influence coastal and offshore sectors, necessitating accurate seismic potential estimates. While historical and instrumental data confirm intense seismicity in western Albania and its offshore areas, gaps remain in current seismic hazard models. To better characterize potential seismogenic sources, we analyzed the region's principal tectonic features, emphasizing surface evidence and potential surface-faulting effects. The study focuses on the highly exposed sector between the Kruja thrust front, the Tirana Plain, and the Adriatic coast—an area marked by significant urban, commercial, and touristic development. This seismic landscape is shaped by Quaternary-to-recent activity along the Shijak thrust and Vora backthrust, which have disrupted and reorganized the fluvial network, as evidenced by multiple river diversions and wind gaps. Although previous studies consider the Kruja thrust front sealed by Upper Miocene molasse and Pliocene sequences, we identified evidence of potential Quaternary activity along its front, likely associated with secondary gravity-driven processes. Additional Quaternary-to-recent compressional deformation and localized uplift are documented along the Makaresh anticline and Fushë-Kruja hills, indicated by an endorheic basin and both local- and basin-scale fluvial diversions. Our data suggest that historical and instrumental seismicity may not capture the maximum seismic and surface-faulting potential of the area. This underscores the necessity of integrating surface geological evidence into seismic hazard models to improve risk assessment and mitigation strategies for communities exposed to earthquake and potential tsunami hazards.

Albania and Kosovo are situated within the seismically active Alpine-Mediterranean belt, where significant crustal deformation results from the ongoing convergence between the Adria microplate and the Eurasian plate. Within this geodynamic framework, the Kurbnesh-Kukës-Prizren fault zone constitutes a geotectonic structure of paramount importance for understanding regional tectonics and seismicity in northern Albania and southwestern Kosovo. This SW-NE-trending fault segment represents one of the principal active tectonic zones in the Western Balkans and plays a fundamental role in both landscape evolution and the spatial distribution of regional seismicity. The area has undergone a complex, prolonged tectonic evolution characterized by multiple deformation phases associated with successive Alpine orogenic events. Contemporary tectonic activity, driven by neotectonic stress regimes, has reactivated these inherited fault systems, thereby exerting a direct control over the present-day seismic hazard. Seismological records from local and regional monitoring networks indicate that the Kurbnesh-Kukës-Prizren fault zone experiences moderate-to-high levels of seismic activity. This study aims to characterize the geological and tectonic framework of this fault as an active transboundary structure between Albania and Kosovo, while analyzing its seismic behavior to enhance understanding of the region's geodynamic evolution. To quantify the seismic characteristics of the fault zone, we employed standard statistical seismological parameters, including temporal histograms of earthquake occurrence, spatiotemporal variations in the seismotectonic b-value, annual probabilities of occurrence, and earthquake recurrence intervals. The results underscore the necessity for a more detailed assessment of geological and seismic risk, particularly regarding urban expansion, critical infrastructure planning, and natural hazard risk management.

The seismicity of Albania is primarily driven by the collision between the Adria microplate and the Albanian orogen. The Ionian fault zone, located in southwestern Albania, is characterized by NW-SE trending neotectonic thrust faults with oblique components. These faults are predominantly marked by NW extension and include pre-Pliocene overthrust faults subjected to pure compressive stress. Occasionally, these overthrust faults are intersected by NE-SW-oriented thrust faults. The Ionian overthrust fault zone extends over 100 km along the Ionian Sea coast, from Vlora to Konispol. This study analyzes the seismotectonic activity of the Ionian fault zone, using data from 166 earthquakes (4.5 = Ms = 6.6) recorded between 358 and 2024, including six events with magnitudes of 6.6. Notable earthquakes from the last century include the 1931 Qafe e Llogaras (Ms = 6.1) and the 1920 Tepelena (Ms = 6.4) events. A total of 3,837 earthquakes (0.1 = ML less than 5.2) have been recorded during the instrumental period (1970�2024). The most significant earthquake of the 21st century was the Bularati earthquake (ML = 5.2) on May 26, 2000. Seismic activity is concentrated along several fault segments, including Vlora-Qaf� e Llogaras�, Borsh-Kardhiq, and Pilur-Ku�-Nivic�-Tepelen�. Focal mechanism solutions for 54 earthquakes indicate predominantly reverse fault motion with a strike-slip component, reflecting compression along the SW-NE axis. The Ionian fault zone presents a significant seismic hazard, with potential future events up to Mmax 7.0. This study aims to enhance understanding of the region's seismotectonic framework.

The orogeny in Albania and its surrounding, in collision with Adria microplate is divided in two domains of a different present-day tectonic regimes: the external domain with a compressional regime and the internal domain with an extensional regime. Two main fault systems are distinguished: 1) the longitudinal fault system, trending NW-SE up to NNW-SSE, represented by thrust and reverse faults, and 2) the traversal fault system NE-SW trending represented by strike-slip. The Lushnje-Elbasan transversal fault, in the NNE direction, is delineated by the Dumrea diapir dome and the Elbasani Quaternary graben. Over a century-long period from 1923 to 2024 years, the activity of the Dumrea diapir dome fault zone and its surrounding manifested by 12 moderates to strong earthquakes recorded along it, with magnitudes ranging 4.5 � 6.2. Significant seismic events occurred in Dumrea diapir dome zone and its surrounding in 1923, a series of earthquakes in 1959, 1871, 1990, 2007, 2014, 2020, 2023, and 2024.The strong earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.2 (Ms), had occurred on September 1, 1959, near to Ura e Ku�it village about 18 km south-east of Lushnje town. Several strong foreshocks and a large number of aftershocks were located. We present results from an analysis of the focal mechanisms of the main shocks and their aftershocks. The focal mechanism solutions of these moderate earthquakes were obtained from the Institute of Seismology of Albania and EMSC. The analysis of the focal mechanisms indicates that the Dumrea diapir dome fault zone is currently operating as both a transtensional strike-slip and a transpressive one. The region affected by these moderate earthquakes over the last century, along with the strongest earthquake of May 1960 (M6.2), forms an active seismotectonic zone in central Albania, posing a threat to the nearby urban areas of Lushnja, Elbasani, and Berati districts in Albania.

According to Albania's geographical classification, the Mati River belongs to the North Central Highlands. From a climatic perspective, this region is characterized by significant variations in temperature and precipitation due to its diverse geographical altitudes, ranging from 1800 meters above sea level to 0 meters at the estuary. Hydrographically, the Mati River basin is distinguished by a dense network of water courses, particularly in its middle and lower sections, where ultrabasic formations dominate. Additionally, the presence of various water bodies makes this basin an interesting subject for study. Besides numerous streams, the basin also contains several lakes, primarily created for hydroelectric and agricultural purposes, varying in size from medium to small. Drought is a slow-onset, creeping natural hazard and a recurrent phenomenon in the Mati watershed region. Various drought indices have been employed globally to support drought mapping and water resource management. This study examines the meteorological drought index combined with statistical methods; however, the results showed an inconsistent spatial and temporal variation. The discrepancies observed among different drought indices in detecting drought events in the study area can be minimized by incorporating multiple indices alongside the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in drought assessments. Moreover, further investigation is needed to understand why drought detection varies across different indices. Evaluating the strengths and limitations of these drought predictors in this region will enhance our understanding of vegetation responses to drought threats and improve future drought monitoring strategies.

A comprehensive analysis of b-value for the Albanian earthquakes was conducted using the instrumental earthquake catalogue of Albanian region. A total of 38,816 seismic events with magnitudes M-L >= 0.1 on the Richter scale were utilized. Statistical characteristics of the seismicity were examined based on b-value, as defined by the Gutenberg-Richter law. Considering the magnitude completeness (Mc-value) as 2.7, b-value was estimated as 1.09 +/- 0.08 and it indicates a normal stress regime in the region. The Mc-value varies from 1.5 to 3.4, and spatial distribution of b-value ranges from 0.79 to 1.16. Higher b-values (> 1.0) were detected in the southernmost part of Albania, whereas lower b-values (< 1.0) were found in the western part, particularly within the Adriatic-Ionian fault zone and the Lushnje-Elbasan-Dib & euml;r transversal fault zone, as well as in the south-eastern Leskovik-Erseka-Kor & ccedil;a fault zone. Regions with lower b-values correspond to areas with larger-magnitude events, while higher b-values are associated with smaller earthquakes. These findings suggest that b-values across Albania generally round 1.0, with lower values indicating moderate stress accumulation in the western region and within two other active seismic belts. The b-values less than 1.0 may signal areas of increased seismic potential. The occurrence probability of earthquakes across varying magnitudes was found to be very high (99%-100%) for seismic events with M-L between 0.5 and 4.5, and lower (less than 95%) for events with M-L >= 5.5; it varied from 1% to 60% for events with larger M-L >= 6.0 for different Tr values. Recurrence periods for smaller magnitudes are relatively short (less than 1 year for magnitudes from 1.0 to 4.2), whereas for larger magnitudes (5.0 to 6.0), recurrence periods are longer, about 100 years. The Albanian region is characterized by a complex geological setting and significant seismic activity, and, thus, it can be stated that these types of analyses may be important in terms of seismotectonic evaluation and seismic hazard.

A spatio-temporal analysis of seismic activity along the active tectonic fault systems of Albania was conducted in early 2025 employing two diagnostic parameters: the fractal dimension (Dc), which characterizes the heterogeneity, complexity, and clustering of seismicity, and the standard normal deviate (Z), used to identify precursory seismic quiescence. The magnitude of completeness (Mc) across the Albanian fault zones ranges from 2.5 to 3.4, providing a solid basis for reliable interpretation. The obtained Dc value for the Albanian orogenic belt is 1.93 ± 0.04, indicating pronounced seismic clustering, particularly within the seven major fault zones at both regional and local scales. Seismic quiescence, commonly considered a potential precursor to strong earthquakes, proved effective in detecting anomalous patterns that may signal probable locations of future mainshocks. By integrating Dc and Z analyses, this study reveals structural complexities, seismogenic potential, and quiescence anomalies that go beyond conventional seismicity mapping. These findings enhance understanding of earthquake nucleation processes and support improved assessment of areas susceptible to future moderate-to-large seismic events in Albania.

On January 15, 2023 (at 21:37 GMT), a moderate Ms4.8 earthquake occurred 4km southwest of the Klosi area and 24km north of Tirana. It was felt over a larger area of northern and central Albania. The earthquake sequence extended along the Nderfushas-Petralb-Gurre e Vogel tectonic fault zone, which is exposed on the ground for a length of about 25 km. The region affected by the January 2023 sequence, along with the seismogenic region of the August 11, 2018, moderate Ms5.2 earthquake, forms a roughly northeast to southwest-trending active seismotectonic zone in northeastern Albania. This tectonic segment is part of the Bulqiza-Burrel-Macukull seismogenic fault zone. For this analysis, local and regional data concerning the epicentral locations, focal mechanisms, and macro-seismic data of the January 2023 earthquake were used. The focal mechanisms of the main shocks indicate that deformation is taken up by NNE to SSW-trending normal faults with strike-slip elements, in agreement with the approximately east to west extension previously identified within the Albanian orogeny. The focal mechanism solution shows that a normal active fault zone is responsible for triggering the January 15, 2023, earthquake. The focal depth analysis reveals that this seismic series was mainly generated in the shallow upper crust under the tectonic conditions of this area. Analysis of this earthquake, along with some other recently moderate earthquakes and seismic activity, sheds light on the seismotectonics of the area and the stress field. The Nderfushas-Petralb-Gurre e Vogel fault zone presents a threat to nearby urban areas.

Albania is located within the complex tectonic framework of the external Dinarides and Hellenides, where multiple active fault systems accommodate ongoing crustal shortening. However, significant uncertainties persist regarding fault segmentation, kinematics, and surface expression. This study integrates tectonic geomorphology, field observations, and historical data to reassess the relationships between active structures and destructive seismicity in southern and eastern Albania during the period 1851 to 1942. Remote sensing data, including satellite imagery and digital terrain models, high-resolution topographic data, and field surveys were combined with earthquake catalogues and focal-mechanism datasets to identify and evaluate seismogenic sources in two representative case studies. The first case concerns the Vlora–Elbasani Line and the southern frontal thrust system of the Ionian Zone, which produced a prolonged seismic sequence including more than twelve Mw > 6 earthquakes, culminating in the 1930 event. This sequence is interpreted as a migrating rupture process that facilitated the thrusting of the Ionian Zone over the Sazani Zone. Detailed analysis of the 1897 Dhiver earthquake reveals well-documented coseismic ruptures and highlights the persistence of oral traditions that preserve seismological memory. The second case study focuses on eastern Albania (1894–1942), where strike-slip deformation along the Peshkopi–Bilisht fault system is associated with pull-apart basins and major historical earthquakes within the Ohrid graben.

The seismic performance of premodern buildings, which were often constructed without contemporary seismic codes, is critical due to the potential catastrophic consequences of earthquakes. Persistent updates to seismic codes aim to reduce structural vulnerabilities and risks, especially in seismically active regions, by incorporating the latest research and empirical data. This study applies modern Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) to an old, reinforced concrete (RC) building designed using premodern codes in Albania. This building was implemented as a template project across various locations in the country which represents a significant risk due to its continued use in our seismically active region frequently affected by earthquakes. The study provides a detailed methodology for applying IDA based on current guidelines and coherent studies. The building is modeled as 2D frames in both orthogonal directions using ZEUS-NL software. IDA curves are derived from 20 ground motion records, with 5

In this study, we aim to demonstrate the change in the topography of the sea floor as a result of the sedimentation of rivers. The study area is the Divjaka Bay, bounded to the north by the delta of the Shkumbin River and to the south by the delta of the Seman River, on the Adriatic coast of Albania. The method used is the Integrated Satellite Bathymetric Surveying method. The monitoring period extends from 2017 to 2020, based on 4 monitoring campaigns. The longitudinal bathymetric profile extends northsouth, in proximity to the delta of the Shkumbin River in the north and the delta of the Seman River in the south, with a length of about 30km and a distance of about 70m from the coastline. The area is covered with 7 perpendicular bathymetric profiles (P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, and P7), with an average distance of about 3000m between each other. The lengths of the profiles vary from 500m for the shortest profile to 3300m for the longest one. The information acquisition frequency is 1 point per 20m. The analysis of the obtained data is done by dividing the area into 3 sub-areas (northern, central, and southern). It is found that the speed of sea floor change is -104mm/year (erosion process) for the southern sub-area, +41.2mm/year (accumulation process) for the central sub-area, and -62mm/year (erosion process) for the northern sub-area. The overall vector of sea floor topography change in the study area results in a value of - 419mm/year. This conclusion confirms what can be visually observed in the area, where the two side zones are in the erosion process, while the central zone is in the accumulation process, which affects the dynamics of the coastline.

During the last five decades since 1968, the Elbasani zone in Albania is dominated by low seismicity. This fault zone has evidenced some seismological phenomena. It is a transversal active fault zone with normal and strike-slip faults characterized by low-velocity layers. From instrumental seismicity in this area have been located 1831 seismic events, with magnitude ML > 1.1 Richter and 3 of them with magnitude ML > 5.0. Recently on May 19, 2014, a moderate earthquake ML5.2 occurred in the Elbasani seismogenic zone. This earthquake was located 6 km southeast of Belshi town and 18 km south of Elbasani town and was felt over Albania. The analysis of seismicity during the period of time 968-2022 years indicates that most earthquakes were located in the upper and middle earth crust and very few in the uppermost mantle. The focal mechanisms solution of some earthquakes indicates an extensional regime in this fault zone. The parameters of focal mechanisms indicate the predominance of normal fault motion and strike-slip fault motion is compatible with the present-day extension regime. The Elbasan zone has a complex geological structure with a significant number of geothermal water resources and some features of seismicity. The analysis of the features of seismicity during the five last decades provides us with correct interpretations of seismotectonic, low velocity lowers and understanding of geodynamic phenomena of the Earth's crust. The area of active faults of Elbasan presents a threat to the city of Elbasan and to the curative and tourist area of Llinxha-Hidrat.

Geothermal energy sources in Albania are estimated as warm water sources of the underground layers of the earth, which have a sufficient temperature to be used as a source of energy. The area of Elbasan is a special area because it has a significant number of sources with geothermal potential. This area, as part of the Kruja geothermal area, has a length of 180 km and a width of 4-5 km. The current average flow of thermal water is about 15-18 l/s and temperatures vary from 55-65oC. It is estimated that the resources have specific reserves of 39.6 GJ/m2 and potential power to install 2760 kW. It is about thermal sources with low enthalpy and maximum temperature up to 80oC. The emergence of hot water on the surface shows that these thermal springs are mainly located near the result of intense tectonic activity in the seismically active parts. The geothermal regime of the geological structures in the area of Elbasan is conditioned by the heat flow density, the geothermal gradient and the distribution of the temperature field at different depths of these sources, closely related to the lithology of the geological structures, as well as to the hydrodynamics of underground waters.

Two earthquakes struck the NW region of Albanian territory on 21 September 2019 (Mw = 5.6) and on 26 November 2019 (Mw = 6.4). The epicenters of the seismic activity were located offshore NW Durrës, one of Albania’s most populated cities, located 30 km from the capital Tirana. Various aftershocks followed subsequently. While there were no reported injuries, a number of buildings sustained significant damage near the epicenter following the initial event. Subsequently, during the second event, there was loss of life and extensive damage to civilian structures, resulting in multiple collapses. This study focuses on the earthquake damages observed in residential and public buildings in the earthquake-affected region. The earthquakes predominantly affected low-rise masonry buildings, while the newly constructed RC structures built according to the latest seismic rules were almost unaffected. The commonly encountered building typologies in the region, together with photos showing the amount of destruction are presented here. As observed by the authors during the reconnaissance visit to the stricken area, examples of various damage patterns are presented, along with a technically substantiated description of the reasons for those damages. Although modern buildings during recent earthquakes in the region show acceptable performance, the detailed surveys from the Durrës Earthquakes showed that there is still an important level of deficiency in current masonry buildings built by conventional methods and materials. This problem may reoccur in future earthquakes that may hit other rural regions of Albania, which must be focused on systematically in the near future.

A detailed analysis of the b-value within the Elbasani fault zone, Albania, were studied. From instrumental seismicity in this area have been located 1830 seismic events, with magnitude Ml>0.5 Richter. In the zone of Elbasani, hot mineral water (thermal waters) spot out from natural springs which have been known since the 19th century. The statistical properties of seismicity are analysed by using b-value known as Gutenberg- Richter law. The magnitude of completeness (Mc) value is determined as 2.6, and the bvalue is calculated as 1.03 � 0.06, and it is determined that the region has a normal stress level. It is seen that the Mc-value varies from 1.6 to 2.9, the b-value changes between 0.9 and 1.3. The regions with the large b-values (> 1.0) are estimated in the eastern parts of the of Elbasani zone. However, the regions with the low b-values (less than 1.0) are observed in the north, west and southwest of Elbasani zone. The regions with the small b-values correspond to great-magnitude events, whereas the other large values are related to smallmagnitude earthquakes. These results reveal that b-values for all regions are well represented by a b-value typically close to 1.0. There are clear decreasing trends in temporal changes of b-values before the occurrences of some strong main shocks. The lower b-value indicate that there is still moderate stress accumulation in the southwest area of the Llinxha-Kozan thermal water belt. The b-values smaller than 1.0 indicate potential future earthquake area. Following the strong events, there are remarkable decreases in b-value as a function of time. Changes in b-value with time varies in a large band between 0.6 and 1.4. Probabilities of earthquake activity in different magnitude sizes show comparatively great values changing from 50-100 % for earthquakes of 0.5 ? Ml ? 4.5 and the values relatively lower than 90 % for the earthquakes of 5.0 ? Ml. The Elbasani zone has a complex geological structure with a significant number of geothermal water resources and some features of seismicity.

Albania is part of one of the most active seismic regions in Europe with dozens of devastating earthquakes throughout history. In this study, we will present an investigation of the earthquakes of the Elbasani region, in terms of the location accuracy and analysis of the features of the seismoactive layers. The distribution of focal depth shows the activation of a lithospheric zone, which extends in depth between 0 and 40 km. Accurate assessment of seismoactive layers of the Elbasani zone is of great interest in the recognition of the real depth of seismic energy generation and relations with low velocity layers. The depth of earthquakes has particular interest in the case of moderate and strong earthquakes because it is related to their effect on the surface. Strong earthquakes with shallow focal depth cause greater damage than earthquakes of the same magnitude but with a deeper focal depth. The b-value depth analysis is related to the stresses for the seismoactive layers. The crustal structure of the Elbasani zone with high b-values is likely to be associated with crustal low-velocity zones. The earthquakes are relatively smaller beneath the low-velocity zones where the high heat flow values are observed. The location of moderate earthquakes with depths from 20 to 35 km, which means less surface effect than the same earthquake with a depth smaller than 10km. The intensity in the epicenter is dependent by the magnitude and by the focal depth. Analysis of these earthquakes show that shocks with Ml > 4.5 have greater depths than earthquakes with smaller magnitudes. This analysis shows that the seismoactive layer in Elbasani zone lies at a depth of about 30 km. These results are a step towards more detailed geodynamic and seismotectonic analysis.

In this study, the correlations between the heat flow density and seismotectonic b-value in the Elbasani area of Albania were investigated to understand the how low-velocity layers underneath the Elbasani area in central Albania struggling the large-scale Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra Fault Zone affect the heat flow data. For this purpose, the heat flow and regional distribution of b-value were imaged for different locations and depths. To achieve the analysis, the Albanian Seismological Catalogue for the period between 1 July 1968 and 26 December 2022, including 1830 earthquakes with a local magnitude of 0.5 <= M-l <= 5.2 that occurred at the depths below 70 kilometres, was considered. The b-value was calculated as 1.03 +/- 0.06 by considering the magnitude of the completeness value as Mc-value = 2.6. This result shows that the b-value of earthquake distribution in the Vlora-Lushnja-Elbasani-Dibra (VLED) fault zone is well represented by the Gutenberg and Richter (G-R) scaling law with the b-value close to 1.0. The regional variations of the b-value show that b-values smaller than 0.9 were observed in the western and south-western parts of the Llinxha-Kozan thermal water belt. The depth distribution of the b-value indicates that there exists a sharp decrease in the b-values from 1.15 to 0.7 in the depths varying from 5 to 20 km. The highest heat flow values were observed on the Dumrea diapiric dome and in the central part of the Elbasani area. Thus, our analysis indicates significant and robust correlations between the geothermal and earthquake distribution. The discontinuity of Moho interface is deep in the regions where high b-values were observed. Low b-values are found at the depths ranging from 20-25 km and 35-40 km in the Dumrea evaporite massif area. We have evidence that high b-values and large heat flow values are related to the low seismic velocity layers underneath the Elbasani area. The low-velocity zone (LVZ) in Albania occurs in the Earth's crust and in the upper mantle. It is characterized by an unusually low seismic shear wave velocity compared to the surrounding depth intervals. It is well known that the low-velocity layers in the Elbasani area are determined in the upper crust, at shallow depths of 2-4 km, and in the middle crust at a 10-14 km depth. Hence, it is suggested that the Moho interface in the eastern part of the Elbasani area is relatively deep (45 km) compared to the western part of Albania (35 km), and the magnitude of earthquakes is smaller where the high heat flow values were observed.