The Covid-19 pandemic has caused major disruptions in international trade and has raised concerns about adverse effects on international supply chains. Using a unique establishment survey matched with administrative data from Germany, we provide novel evidence on how establishments have adjusted their supply chains in response to pandemic-induced disruptions. We find that establishments that experienced difficulties in obtaining intermediate inputs as a result of the pandemic are significantly more likely to change their network of suppliers than establishments without such problems, especially if disruptions affected imports from abroad. Establishments experiencing supply chain difficulties are more likely to replace a distant with a closer supplier. However, these adjustments in response to the pandemic appear to be temporary.

In this paper we analyze changes in the intra-urban spatial distribution of employment across six U.S. and German city regions between 2002 and 2015. Our methodological approach allows for a systematic and spatially consistent comparison of urban spatial structures across the two different countries. The empirical results show major national, regional, and sectoral differences in the spatial distribution of employment. In the German case studies traditional core cities play a more important role for the regional labor market than in the U.S. Only relatively small shares of metropolitan employment are concentrated in subcenters. While employment concentrations are spatially less persistent in the U.S. case study regions, we did not find any evidence of common or country-specific trends toward increased polycentricity or employment dispersal. Changes in the spatial concentration of employment seem to be highly context-specific and influenced by the individual geographic and institutional frameworks of the analyzed metropolitan areas.

We analyze whether the benefits of work experience that was acquired in denser locations can be explained by the quality of jobs that can be found in agglomerations using administrative data on individual employment biographies of workers in Germany. We find that 79% of the premium for work experience gained in the densest regions can be ascribed to the sectors, tasks and establishments in which experience was acquired. Moreover, we find that foreign and native workers, on average, benefit to a similar extent from dynamic agglomeration effects. However, low-skilled foreign workers receive a lower return to experience gained in dense regions than observationally identical natives. This difference can be explained by the fact that the former gain work experience in lower-quality jobs.

A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants’ ability to do one’s job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants and propose several hypotheses. Our findings indicate that: (i) Respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market. (ii) Workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors on the labour market. (iii) The perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. (iv) Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss.

Using a novel firm survey matched to administrative employee records, we demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic was a push factor for the diffusion of digital technologies in Germany. Two out of three firms invested in digital technologies. Three quarters of those investing firms invested because of the pandemic, particularly in hardware and software to enable decentralized communication, management, and coordination. These investments also fostered additional firm-sponsored training, underscoring the complementarity between investments in digital technologies and training. We then show that the investments helped firms insure their workers against the economic downturn. Firms with additional digital investments retained more of their employees on regular working hours and relied less on short-time work. Low- and medium-skilled, as well as young workers, benefited the most from the insurance effect of digital investments.

We examine the development of worker-firm matching over the career due to job mobility. Using administrative employer-employee data covering the universe of German employees, we measure the degree of assortative matching as the correlation of worker and firm quality measures obtained from an AKM wage decomposition. We also introduce a novel measure based on the distance between the estimates of worker and firm quality. Both measures indicate that the degree of assortative matching, on average, increases with each job move. For high-quality workers, this can be explained by job ladder models as these workers move to higher-quality firms. Low-quality workers are matched less assortatively at the beginning of their careers, but also manage to climb the job ladder at first. For this group, the increase in assortative matching increases after the third job, when they fall down the job ladder. Changes in worker-firm matching are also relevant for the extent of life cycle inequality. We estimate that the increase in assortative matching accounts for around 25% of the increase in wage inequality over the life cycle.

We estimate the spatially heterogeneous effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on labor market dynamics in Germany until December 2021. While initially slightly stronger in rural regions and large agglomerations, adverse effects quickly become more pronounced and persistent in large agglomerations compared to all other region types. We ascribe the larger impact of the pandemic in large agglomerations to two factors. First, a combination of a higher share of skilled workers and jobs suitable for working from home is positively related to an increased inflow rate into unemployment. We argue that local spillover effects from reduced product market demand in large cities caused by changes in behavior such as working from home or online shopping are a possible explanation. Second, some of our results suggest that a lower outflow rate out of unemployment is associated with a higher precrisis unemployment rate in large agglomerations. This might reflect the less favorable composition of unemployment in large cities, which reduces the probability of transitions into employment during crises.

Zusammenfassung Der Ausbruch der Coronapandemie 2020 hat die Abhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft von globalen Lieferketten offengelegt. Verzögerungen bei der Zulieferung oder der Ausfall von Vorprodukten infolge eingeschränkter Logistikkapazitäten, geschlossener Grenzen oder einer gestörten Produktion bei Zulieferern hat seitdem bei vielen Betrieben in Deutschland zu Problemen geführt. Mit dem Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 wurde deutlich, dass Lieferketten auch erheblichen geopolitischen Risiken ausgesetzt sind. Die Unternehmen stehen vor der Aufgabe, ihre Zulieferketten resilienter gegen solche Risiken zu machen.

What drives differences in pay between firms? To answer this question, we build a harmonised cross-country linked employer-employee data set to analyse the role of firms in wage inequality since the 2000s in 20 OECD countries. The main finding is that, on average across countries, changes in the dispersion of average wages between firms explain about half of the changes in overall wage inequality. Two-thirds of these changes in between-firm wage inequality, i.e. about a third of overall wage inequality, are accounted for by changes in wage premia, i.e. the part of wages that is determined by the firm rather than the characteristics of its workers. The contribution of wage premia tends to be larger in countries with decentralised collective bargaining systems and lower levels of job mobility. The remaining third, i.e. a sixth of overall wage inequality, can be attributed to changes in workforce composition, including the sorting of high-skilled workers into high-paying firms. These results suggest that firms play an important role in explaining wage inequality as wages are determined, to a significant extent, by firm wage-setting practices rather than being exclusively determined by workers’ earnings characteristics.

Why are certain labour markets more resilient to economic shocks? Why are some economies deeply affected by migration? Modern migration theory remains based on simplistic neo-classical utility maximizing assumptions, despite a failure to fully answer real-world migration questions. The aim of this paper is to show that neo-classical dynamics are differentiated between subpopulations that make up the workforce. Using disaggregated data from Germany and a dynamic spatial vector autoregressive model that allows for spillovers, the paper teases out several aspects of regional labour market resilience. Results highlight that regions stand to benefit from supporting place-specific policies tailored to local circumstances.

We develop a quantitative spatial model with heterogeneous firms and a monopsonistic labour market to derive minimum wages that maximize employment or welfare. Quantifying the model for German micro regions, we find that the German minimum wage, set at 48% of the national mean wage, has increased aggregate worker welfare by about 2.1% at the cost or reducing employment by about 0.3%. The welfaremaximizing federal minimum wage, at 60% of the national mean wage, would increase aggregate worker welfare by 4%, but reduce employment by 5.6%. An employmentmaximizing regional wage, set at 50% of the regional mean wage, would achieve a similar aggregate welfare effect and increase employment by 1.1%.

The high-frequency establishment survey "Establishments in the Covid-19-Crisis" (BeCovid) started in 2020 and continued until June 2022 to collect monthly data on how businesses in Germany adjusted to the challenges of the pandemic. This article describes the survey design and provides an overview over the topics covered. We further outline the survey's research potentials, particularly when linked to administrative records.

Abstract Based on data from a representative German establishment survey, we assess the ramifications of potentially cutting off the gas supply from Russia. Moreover, we analyse how rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions are so far related to the probability of firms adjusting prices, output and employment. A large share of businesses, especially energy-intensive ones, expect a partial or full reduction in output levels should they no longer be supplied with gas. Fourteen percent of businesses report that their production already decreased due to the Russia-Ukraine war and even more expect such a decrease in the future. Similarly, many businesses report price increases. Output and price adjustments are more likely to occur among businesses reporting rising energy costs or supply chain bottlenecks. Some have taken personnel measures, but overall, employment has remained robust so far.

Zusammenfassung Seit 2021 steigen die Energiepreise kräftig an. Mit Beginn des russischen Kriegs gegen die Ukraine sind sie noch einmal in die Höhe geschnellt. Neben Lieferkettenstörungen und Exportrückgängen dämpft das die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, Konjunkturprognosen wurden deutlich nach unten revidiert. Darüber hinaus stellt ein mögliches komplettes Ausbleiben aller Lieferungen von Energieträgern aus Russland ein erhebliches Risiko dar. Über die zu erwartenden Folgen ist viel diskutiert worden. Wenn es um die Auswirkungen eines Lieferstopps von Gas geht, kommen bisherige Berechnungen auf Basis ökonomischer Modelle zu uneindeutigen Ergebnissen mit einer Spannbreite von einem verkraftbaren Schock (Bachmann et al., 2022) bis hin zu massiven und dauerhaften wirtschaftlichen Schäden (Krebs, 2022).

This article shows the extent to which companies' investments in digital technologies have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on a large German company survey conducted by the Institute for Employment Research, the authors examine whether and which companies have invested in different types of digital technologies, how these investments are connected to working from home, and how investments are influenced by the economic situation of companies during the pandemic. The authors also discuss further training activities provided and planned by employers and how those are related to their investments in digital technologies.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labour market has been substantial, but also heterogeneous. This report assesses whether differences in the size of the labour market impact mainly reflect that economic sectors have been differently affected by the pandemic or whether other factors, including regional characteristics, matter once the sectoral structure is accounted for. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))