The ocean around Iceland is a key region where major water masses and currents interact, influencing the global ocean circulation. Here, we analyze 29 years (1990-2019) of quarterly hydrographic section data collected around Iceland. The hydrographic properties around Iceland show important spatial variability. Based on temperature, salinity, and stratification structure, we classified the Icelandic waters in three distinct regions: the south, the north, and northeast regions. The warm and salty Atlantic Waters that dominate the south show the deepest winter mixed layers (similar to 500 m) while the north and northeast show shallower depths (similar to 100 m). Based on the decomposition of total stratification into temperature and salinity contributions, we find that the subsurface stratification is mainly controlled by temperature in the south and by salinity in the northwest, while in the north, the North Icelandic Irminger Current and East Icelandic Current alternate seasonally, shifting the region between temperature-dominated and salinity-dominated stratification. The interannual variability of the mixed layer and of its thermohaline properties is also large around Iceland. Mixed layer waters were generally colder in the 1990's, then warmed until approximately 2015, and became colder again from 2015 to 2018. In the northeast, a multidecadal mixed layer warming trend emerges from the interannual variability as the Atlantic Water progresses northeastward, which is responsible for transforming locally the upper stratification from salinity-dominated into temperature-dominated. This is associated with the "Atlantification" of the Arctic. Within the mixed layer south of Iceland, density has continuously decreased since the mid 1990's. Elsewhere, we observe density-compensated changes in mixed layer temperature and salinity, without clear long trends. This study provides an unprecedented and detailed description of the seasonal to multi-decadal variability of the mixed layer depth and stratification around Iceland, showing links between this regional variability and changing North Atlantic under global warming.

Iceland enjoys a much warmer climate than the average for its latitude. A major reason for this is the warm ocean currents in the Atlantic south of Iceland. There is a large heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and the air temperature therefore depends to a high degree on the ocean temperature. During the last roughly two decades, glaciers in Iceland have generally been retreating as well as having a negative mass balance due to a warmer climate, whereas during three decades prior to that, most of the glaciers in Iceland were advancing. The air temperature in Iceland south of the largest Icelandic glacier, Vatnajökull, showed a rise in temperature of about 1°C from 1995 to the early 2000’s and since then it has mostly remained at this high level. Often this warmer climate is attributed entirely to global warming. However, the temperature in the warm and saline Atlantic water south of Iceland also increased by about 1°C during the same period. This rise in ocean temperature was accompanied by an increase in salinity which indicates that the temperature rise was mostly due to a change in the ocean circulation, resulting in advection of warmer and saltier water to the area. In the period from 1995 to the early 2000’s the ocean heat flux with the Atlantic water across the Greenland-Scotland ridge increased by 21 TW, partly through Denmark Strait towards the continental shelf north of Iceland. The increased heat flux was attributed to a rising temperature as well as increased flow of Atlantic water. Only about 0.5% of this heat flux increase is needed to explain the recent melting of Icelandic glaciers. With a relatively sudden 1°C rise in temperature the glaciers will take decades to reach equilibrium with this new temperature and if the temperature does not decrease, the glaciers will continue to lose mass. There are records of advancing and retreating Icelandic glaciers from 1930 and they show a good correspondence with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), that reflects temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Abstract. Oceanic exchanges across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) play a crucial role in shaping the Arctic climate and linking with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Most considered ocean reanalyses underestimate the observed 1993–2020 mean net inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water of 8.0 ± 0.5 Sv by up to 15 %, with reanalyses at 0.25∘ resolution additionally exhibiting larger biases in the single inflow branches compared to higher-resolution products. The underestimation of Atlantic Water inflow translates into a low bias in mean oceanic heat flux at the GSR of 5 %–22 % in reanalyses compared to the observed value of 280 ± 18 TW. Interannual variations in reanalysis transports correlate reasonably well with observed transports in most branches crossing the GSR. Observations and reanalyses with data assimilation show a marked reduction in oceanic heat flux across the GSR of 4 %–9 % (compared to 1993–2020 means) during a biennial (2-year-long) period centered on 2018, a record low for several products. The anomaly was associated with a temporary reduction in geostrophic Atlantic Water inflow through the Faroe–Shetland branch and was augmented by anomalously cool temperatures of Atlantic Water arriving at the GSR. The latter is linked to a recent strengthening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and illustrates the interplay of interannual and decadal changes in modulating transports at the GSR.

The ocean around Iceland witnesses some of the most important transformations of water masses that drive the Global Ocean Circulation. Here, we analyze 28 years of continuous four-yearly hydrographic sections around Iceland from 1990 to 2018. The water-mass properties around Iceland show important spatial variability. From their temperature, salinity and stratification structure, we classified the Icelandic waters in three distinct regions with similar characteristics: the Southwest, the North and Northeast regions. The warm and salty Atlantic Waters that dominate the Southwest show the deepest winter mixed layer (~500m) while the North and Northeast have relatively shallow (< 100m) to moderate (~100m) winter mixed layer depth. Based on the decomposition of the total stratification into temperature and salt contributions, we find that the subsurface summer stratification is mainly dominated by temperature except for the North and Northwest regions where salinity dominates. The interannual variability of the mixed layer and its water properties is also large around Iceland. Mixed layer waters were generally colder in the 90's, then warmed until approximately 2015, and became colder again from 2015 to 2018. Except for the southwestern region, the observed interannual variability seems unrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and its main forcing remains an open question to address in future studies. Only in the northeastern region a multidecadal mixed layer warming trend clearly emerges from the interannual variability. This is associated with the Atlantification of the Arctic, which is also observed from the northward displacements of the isotherms derived from satellite SST. Elsewhere, rather than clear trends, we observe changes in the structure of the mixed layer temperature and salinity that compensate in density. The present study provides an unprecedented and detailed regional description of the seasonal to decadal variability of the mixed layer depth and the stratification, and their link with the changing North Atlantic under global warming.

Dense water masses formed in the Nordic Seas flow across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge and contribute substantially to the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Originally considered an important source of dense water, the Iceland Sea gained renewed interest when the North Icelandic Jet — a current transporting dense water from the Iceland Sea into Denmark Strait — was discovered in the early 2000s. Here we use recent hydrographic data to quantify water mass transformation in the Iceland Sea and contrast the present conditions with measurements from hydrographic surveys conducted four decades earlier. We demonstrate that the large-scale hydrographic structure of the central Iceland Sea has changed significantly over this period and that the locally transformed water has become less dense, in concert with a retreating sea-ice edge and diminished ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes. This has reduced the available supply of dense water to the North Icelandic Jet, but also permitted densification of the East Greenland Current during its transit through the presently ice-free western Iceland Sea in winter. Together, these changes have significantly altered the contribution from the Iceland Sea to the overturning in the Nordic Seas over the four decade period.

The North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC) flowing northward through Denmark Strait is the main source of salt and heat to the north Iceland shelf. We quantify its along-stream evolution using the first high-resolution hydrographic/velocity survey north of Iceland that spans the entire shelf along with historical hydrographic measurements as well as data from satellites and surface drifters. The NIIC generally follows the shelf break. Portions of the flow recirculate near Denmark Strait and the Kolbeinsey Ridge. The current's volume transport diminishes northeast of Iceland before it merges with the Atlantic Water inflow east of Iceland. The hydrographic properties of the current are modified along its entire pathway, predominantly because of lateral mixing with cold, fresh offshore waters rather than air-sea interaction. Progressing eastward, the NIIC cools and freshens by approximately 0.3 degrees C and 0.02-0.03 g kg(-1) per 100 km, respectively, in both summer and winter. Dense-water formation on the shelf is limited, occurring only sporadically in the historical record. The hydrographic properties of this locally formed water match the lighter portion of the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ), which emerges northeast of Iceland and transports dense water toward Denmark Strait. In the region northeast of Iceland, the NIIC is prone to baroclinic instability. Enhanced eddy kinetic energy over the steep slope there suggests a dynamical link between eddies shed by the NIIC and the formation of the NIJ as previously hypothesized. Thus, while the NIIC rarely supplies the NIJ directly, it may be dynamically important for the overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas. Plain Language Summary The North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC) impacts the Icelandic climate and ecosystem by transporting salt, heat, and nutrients onto the north Iceland shelf. It also contributes to the large-scale "overturning circulation" whereby warm water flowing northward in the surface layer is cooled, sinks, and returns to the south at depth. We use a multitude of observational data, including the first high-resolution shipboard survey of temperature, salinity, and velocity that spans the entire north Iceland shelf to study changes in the NIIC's properties and transport along the current's pathway. The NIIC progresses clockwise along the edge of the shelf around north Iceland. It cools and freshens along the way as it mixes with offshore waters from the Iceland Sea. On the shelf, wintertime heat loss to the atmosphere also cools and densifies the water. However, these locally formed dense waters contribute very little to the dense water that participates in the large-scale overturning circulation.

Ocean circulation redistributes heat, freshwater, carbon, and nutrients all around the globe.Because of their importance in regulating climate, weather, extreme events, sea level, fisheries, and ecosystems, large-scale ocean currents should be monitored continuously.

Abstract. Outflows of low-salinity waters from the Arctic to the upper layers of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) are central in redistributing freshwater from river runoff, melting sea ice, and precipitation. They act to reduce shallow, as well as deep, convection; thereby affecting both biological production and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The two main sources of low-salinity water to the SPNA are the flows through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and through the Denmark Strait. A potential additional source of low-salinity water is the shelf/slope region south of Iceland, mainly fed by Icelandic runoff. Normally this water passes into the Nordic Seas, but in some periods, it may instead flow into the upper layers of the central parts of the Iceland Basin in the eastern SPNA. This low-salinity water has previously been overlooked as a freshwater supply to the SPNA. Using a range of observational data sets, we show that the conditions for a diversion of this water mass from the south Iceland shelf into the Iceland Basin were favourable during the 2014–2018 period. In those years the Iceland Basin became extraordinarily fresh, characterized by surface salinity lower than previously seen in a 120-year long time series. The event is thought to have been mainly caused by unusual winter wind stress patterns that diverted freshwater from the western SPNA to the eastern basin and caused a zonal shift of the subpolar front. Here, we show that the low-salinity signal near the surface was locally reinforced in the central Iceland Basin by anomalous diversion of low-salinity water originating in the shallow shelf areas south of Iceland and that this can help explain why the surface salinity of the Iceland Basin became so exceptionally low. The diversion was generated by anomalous wind conditions over the Iceland Basin and caused slightly enhanced freshening of the warm waters crossing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge from the SPNA into the Nordic Seas. The low-salinity Icelandic-source water also increased the near-surface stratification and reduced the depth of convection in the Iceland Basin during two consecutive winters with reduced nutrient renewal of near-surface waters as a consequence. Although especially pronounced after 2014, this extra freshwater input probably occurs more generally, which may help explain why the central Iceland Basin may be an oligotrophic region, as has previously been suggested.

The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social−ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but also how knowledge from these regions contributes to an understanding of how to obtain a sustainable ocean. Our collective experience may be summarized in three points: 1) In the absence of long-term observations, decision-making is subject to high risk arising from natural variability; 2) in the absence of established scientific organizations, advice to stakeholders often relies on a few advisors, making them prone to biased perceptions; and 3) in the absence of trust between policy makers and the science community, attuning to a changing ocean will be subject to arbitrary decision-making with unforeseen and negative ramifications. Underpinning these observations, we show that collaboration across scientific disciplines and stakeholders and between nations is a necessary condition for appropriate actions.

The temperature in the Atlantic waters south of Iceland has increased by about 1°C since 1995 with most of the rise occurring before 2000. A similar rise in air temperature in Iceland was observed simultaneously and the rise in temperature is often interpreted as being caused by global warming. Many effects of this in the ocean and on land such as changed distribution of marine species in the area as well as melting of glaciers in Iceland have been attributed to this rising temperature. However, it is unlikely that this rapid increase in temperature was solely due to global warming, especially since it was accompanied by an increase in salinity. It is more likely that there was a change in the ocean circulation in the area leading to more sub-tropical water entering the sub-polar gyre causing a shift in temperature and salinity. A similar increase in temperature and salinity was observed earlier during 1930-1964 in this area. Between the two warm periods the waters were dominated by lower temperature and salinity. These changes have been related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. By comparing the water mass properties in the two warm periods it is possible to estimate the relative contribution from natural variability and global warming for the recent warm period. It will be shown how the retreat and advancing of glaciers in Iceland are in harmony with the changes in water mass properties in the waters south of Iceland. It is important that decisions about how to adapt to coming climate change are based on how much of the observed change is due to natural variability and global warming respectively. This is a method that can be used in other areas of the northern North Atlantic.

Data from repeat hydrographic surveys over the 25-year period 1993 to 2017, together with satellite altimetry data, are used to quantify the temporal and spatial variability of the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC), East Icelandic Current (EIC), and the water masses they advect around northern Iceland. We focus on the warm, salty Atlantic Water (AW) flowing northward through Denmark Strait and the cooler, fresher, denser Atlantic-origin Overflow Water (AtOW) which has circulated cyclonically around the rim of the Nordic Seas before being advected to the Iceland slope via the EIC. The absolute geostrophic velocities reveal that approximately half of the NIIC recirculates just north of Denmark Strait, while the remaining half merges with the EIC to form a single current that extends to the northeast of Iceland, with no further loss in transport of either component. The AW percentage decreases by 75% over this distance, while the AtOW percentage is higher than that of the AW in the merged current. The NIIC and merged NIIC-EIC are found to be baroclinically unstable, which causes the flow to become increasingly barotropic as it progresses around Iceland. A seasonal accounting of the water masses within the currents indicates that only in springtime is the NIIC dominated by AW inflow north of Denmark Strait. Overall, there is considerably more seasonal and along-stream variability in the properties of the flow prior to the merging of the NIIC and EIC. Over the 25-year time period, the NIIC became warmer, saltier, and increased in volume transport.

Warm water of subtropical-origin flows northward in the Atlantic Ocean and transports heat to high latitudes. This poleward heat transport has been implicated as one possible cause of the declining sea ice extent and increasing ocean temperatures across the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean, but robust estimates are still lacking. Here we use a box inverse model and over 20 years of volume transport measurements to show that the mean ocean heat transport was 305±26 TW for 1993-2016. A significant increase of 21 TW occurred after 2001, which is sufficient to account for the recent accumulation of heat in the northern seas. Therefore, ocean heat transport may have been a major contributor to climate change since the late 1990s. This increased heat transport contrasts with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown at mid-latitudes and indicates a discontinuity of the overturning circulation measured at different latitudes in the Atlantic Ocean.

During the winter of 2012–2013 around 55 thousand tons of herring died due to lack of oxygen in two separate incidents in the small fjord Kolgrafafjörður on the west coast of Iceland. In 2004, a bridge and a connecting road were built across the mouth of the fjord. A subsequent decrease in renewal of water inside the fjord was considered a possible factor contributing to lower oxygen levels in the fjord. After the mass mortalities, a research project was started to study possible effects of the bridge on the water exchange, circulation and oxygen levels in the fjord. Another purpose of this study was to investigate other possible factors that could have led to the observed mass mortality of herring. This involved measurements of currents, wind, sea-level, temperature, salinity and oxygen at various positions and depths. One factor contributing to the mass mortalities was the presence of large amounts of herring in the fjord. Results indicate that it is unlikely that the construction of the bridge was a significant factor in the chain of events contributing to the mass mortalities. Calm, cold weather during both incidents that reduced the exchange of oxygen through the ocean–atmosphere interface was likely more significant. It is also probable that ice formation prevented the herring from coming up to the surface to fill their swim bladders with air.

Conditions in the Arctic are in part driven by the ocean state in the Arctic Mediterranean (AM), the collective name for the Arctic Ocean, the Nordic Seas, and their adjacent shelf seas. Exchange between the lower latitude ocean basins and this region occurs through the Bering Strait (Pacific inflow) and through the passages across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow). These waters are subsequently modified within the AM. The modified waters leave the AM in several flow branches, which are grouped into two different categories: (1) overflow of dense water through the deep passages across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and (2) outflow of light water (surface outflow) on both sides of Greenland. These exchanges transport heat and salt into and out of the AM and are important for conditions in the AM. They are also part of the global ocean circulation and climate system. Attempts to quantify the transports by various methods have been made for many years, but only recently, the observational coverage has become sufficiently complete to allow an integrated assessment of the AM-exchanges based solely on observations. In this EGU contribution, we focus on the observations (incl. volume transport time series) of all the main AM-exchange branches collected in the last 20 to 30 years.

The North Icelandic Jet (NIJ) is an important source of dense water to the overflow plume passing through Denmark Strait. The properties, structure, and transport of the NIJ are investigated for the first time along its entire pathway following the continental slope north of Iceland, using 13 hydrographic/velocity surveys of high spatial resolution conducted between 2004 and 2018. The comprehensive dataset reveals that the current originates northeast of Iceland and increases in volume transport by roughly 0.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) per 100 km until 300 km upstream of Denmark Strait, at which point the highest transport is reached. The bulk of the NIJ transport is confined to a small area in Θ– S space centered near −0.29° ± 0.16°C in Conservative Temperature and 35.075 ± 0.006 g kg −1 in Absolute Salinity. While the hydrographic properties of this transport mode are not significantly modified along the NIJ’s pathway, the transport estimates vary considerably between and within the surveys. Neither a clear seasonal signal nor a consistent link to atmospheric forcing was found, but barotropic and/or baroclinic instability is likely active in the current. The NIJ displays a double-core structure in roughly 50% of the occupations, with the two cores centered at the 600- and 800-m isobaths, respectively. The transport of overflow water 300 km upstream of Denmark Strait exceeds 1.8 ± 0.3 Sv, which is substantially larger than estimates from a year-long mooring array and hydrographic/velocity surveys closer to the strait, where the NIJ merges with the separated East Greenland Current. This implies a more substantial contribution of the NIJ to the Denmark Strait overflow plume than previously envisaged.

We studied the feasibility of seawater heat extraction in Onundarfjordur (Icelandic: Onundarfjordur), a fjord located in the north-western part of Iceland, with sub-Arctic Ocean temperatures. The in-situ seawater temperature in the fjord was measured at different depths and locations from April 2015 to April 2016. Also, a 2-dimensional numerical simulation of key oceanographic parameters throughout the fjord was carried out. Measurements as well as simulations show that the seawater temperature in the fjord is generally higher than 1 degrees C with an upper limit of 10 degrees C. The simulations indicate that the area of interest is tidally dominated with higher current velocity which prominently flanks alongshore during ebb. Our findings indicate, based on oceanographic conditions of the area of study, that heat extraction from Onundarfjordur is theoretically feasible. The average seawater speed of 0.03 m/s in the fjord can gives heat power amounting to 120 kW/(m(2)K) when assuming natural convection through an in-situ heat exchanger. The results imply the possibility of large-scale harnessing of seawater in coastal Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, including e.g. Greenland, using heat pumps that can provide up to 80 degrees C hot water for space heating. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Iceland Greenland Seas Project (IGP) is a coordinated atmosphere–ocean research program investigating climate processes in the source region of the densest waters of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. During February and March 2018, a field campaign was executed over the Iceland and southern Greenland Seas that utilized a range of observing platforms to investigate critical processes in the region, including a research vessel, a research aircraft, moorings, sea gliders, floats, and a meteorological buoy. A remarkable feature of the field campaign was the highly coordinated deployment of the observing platforms, whereby the research vessel and aircraft tracks were planned in concert to allow simultaneous sampling of the atmosphere, the ocean, and their interactions. This joint planning was supported by tailor-made convection-permitting weather forecasts and novel diagnostics from an ensemble prediction system. The scientific aims of the IGP are to characterize the atmospheric forcing and the ocean response of coupled processes; in particular, cold-air outbreaks in the vicinity of the marginal ice zone and their triggering of oceanic heat loss, and the role of freshwater in the generation of dense water masses. The campaign observed the life cycle of a long-lasting cold-air outbreak over the Iceland Sea and the development of a cold-air outbreak over the Greenland Sea. Repeated profiling revealed the immediate impact on the ocean, while a comprehensive hydrographic survey provided a rare picture of these subpolar seas in winter. A joint atmosphere–ocean approach is also being used in the analysis phase, with coupled observational analysis and coordinated numerical modeling activities underway.

The North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC) is an important component of the Atlantic Water (AW) inflow to the Nordic Seas. In this study, both observations and a high-resolution (1/12) numerical model are used to investigate the seasonal to interannual variability of the NIIC and its forcing mechanisms. The model-simulated velocity and hydrographic fields compare well with the available observations. The water mass over the entire north Icelandic shelf exhibits strong seasonal variations in both temperature and salinity, and such variations are closely tied to the AW seasonality in the NIIC. In addition to seasonal variability, there is considerable variation on interannual time scales, including a prominent event in 2003 when the AW volume transport increased by about 0.5Sv. To identify and examine key forcing mechanisms for this event, we analyzed outputs from two additional numerical experiments: using only the seasonal climatology for buoyancy flux (the momentum case) and using only the seasonal climatology for wind stress (the buoyancy case). It is found that changes in the wind stress are predominantly responsible for the interannual variations in the AW volume transport, AW fraction in the NIIC water, and salinity. Temperature changes on the shelf, however, are equally attributable to the buoyancy flux and wind forcing. Correlational analyses indicate that the AW volume transport is most sensitive to the wind stress southwest of Iceland. Plain Language Summary The Irminger Current is an important component for the large-scale ocean circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. The Irminger Current splits one branch that flows northward on the eastern side of the Denmark Strait. This branch further penetrates onto the Icelandic shelf and is named as North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC). The NIIC carries relatively warm, salty, and high nutrient Atlantic Water, so that it is vital for the local climate and ecosystem. This study investigates the changes of NIIC on interannual time scale, particularly for a prominent event in 2003. The Atlantic Water trapped in the NIIC was increased by more than 50% during this event. Numerical modeling experiments were performed to identify and examine the key processes for this event. The wind forcing southwest of Iceland was found to be the dominant driver for the 2003 event, especially for the increased Atlantic Water volume transport. The findings have important implications for understanding the mechanisms of poleward heat transport variability and biologic productivity near Iceland, a key region that connects the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic-Subarctic Seas.