As more ambitious protected area (PA) targets for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework are set beyond Aichi Target 11, renew thinking into spatial prioritisation is required to enable PA expansion that maximises environmental values. Our study focuses on the biodiverse and forest-rich Indonesian island of Sulawesi, which has a terrestrial PA network that covers 10% of the island. We used Marxan to investigate trade-offs in the design of an expanded PA network that prioritised different conservation features (biodiversity, forest cover, carbon stock, karst and valuable metal-rich areas) under varying island-wide coverage targets (17%, 30%, and 50%). Our first scenario, which required existing PAs to be selected, required larger areas to meet these coverage targets, in contrast to our second scenario, which allowed for any part of the island to be chosen, irrespective of PA status. The vast Mekongga and Bangkiriang Landscapes, and Gorontalo corridor were consistently identified as a high priority for protection under all scenarios. To meet our conservation targets through expanding current PAs, creating new PAs, and creating corridors that connect existing PAs, we used a spatially explicit three-phase approach. Our findings identified 26,508 km 2 of priority areas to be included in the current PA network, potentially assisting Indonesia in meeting its post-2020 GBF target, if our approach is replicated across Indonesia as a national or sub-national analysis. We discuss various land management options through other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) and the costs to deliver this strategy.

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km2 of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations' resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.

ABSTRACTHumanity is on a pathway of unsustainable loss of the natural systems upon which we, and all life, rely. To date, global efforts to achieve internationally-agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services, have been poorly integrated. However, these different goals all rely on preserving natural ecosystems. Here, we show how to unify these goals by empirically deriving spatially-explicit, quantitative area-based targets for the retention of natural terrestrial ecosystems. We found that at least 67 million km2of Earth’s natural terrestrial ecosystems (~79% of the area remaining) require retention – via a combination of strict protection but more prominently through sustainably managed land use regimes complemented by restoration actions – to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil and freshwater objectives under four United Nations’ Resolutions. This equates to retaining natural ecosystems across ~50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Our results show where retention efforts could be focussed to contribute to multiple goals simultaneously. The retention targets concept that we present explicitly recognises that such management can and should co-occur alongside and be driven by the people who live in and rely on places where natural and semi-natural ecosystems remain on Earth.

With the intention of securing industry-free land and seascapes, protecting wilderness entered international policy as a formal target for the first time in the zero draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Given this increased prominence in international policy, it is timely to consider the extent to which the construct of wilderness supports global conservation objectives. We evaluated the construct by overlaying recently updated cumulative human pressure maps that offer a global-scale delineation of industry-free land as wilderness with maps of carbon stock, species richness, and ground travel time from urban centers. Wilderness areas took variable forms in relation to carbon stock, species richness, and proximity to urban centers, where 10% of wilderness areas represented high carbon and species richness, 20% low carbon and species richness, and 3% high levels of remoteness (>48 h), carbon, and species richness. Approximately 35% of all remaining wilderness in 2013 was accessible in <24 h of travel time from urban centers. Although the construct of wilderness can be used to secure benefits in specific contexts, its application in conservation must account for contextual and social implications. The diverse characterization of wilderness under a global environmental conservation lens shows that a nuanced framing and application of the construct is needed to improve understanding, communication, and retention of its variable forms as industry-free places.

Live woody vegetation is the largest reservoir of biomass carbon, with its restoration considered one of the most effective natural climate solutions. However, terrestrial carbon fluxes remain the largest uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Here, we develop spatially explicit estimates of carbon stock changes of live woody biomass from 2000 to 2019 using measurements from ground, air, and space. We show that live biomass has removed 4.9 to 5.5 PgC year −1 from the atmosphere, offsetting 4.6 ± 0.1 PgC year −1 of gross emissions from disturbances and adding substantially (0.23 to 0.88 PgC year −1 ) to the global carbon stocks. Gross emissions and removals in the tropics were four times larger than temperate and boreal ecosystems combined. Although live biomass is responsible for more than 80% of gross terrestrial fluxes, soil, dead organic matter, and lateral transport may play important roles in terrestrial carbon sink.

Live woody vegetation is the largest reservoir of biomass carbon with its restoration considered one of the most effective natural climate solutions. However, carbon fluxes associated with terrestrial ecosystems still remain the largest source of uncertainty of the global carbon balance. Here, we develop spatially explicit estimates of global carbon stock changes of live woody biomass from 2000 to 2019 using measurements from ground, air, and space. We show live biomass has removed 4.9-5.5 PgC yr-1 from the atmosphere in this century, offsetting 4.6±0.1 PgC yr-1 of gross emissions from land-use and environmental disturbances and adding substantially (0.23-0.88 PgC yr-1) to the global carbon stocks. Gross emissions and removals in the tropics were four times larger than temperate and boreal ecosystems combined. Although live biomass is responsible for more than 80% of gross terrestrial fluxes, soil, dead organic matter, and lateral transport may play important roles in terrestrial carbon sink.

Nations of the world failed to fully achieve any of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 targets, and the future of biodiversity hangs in the balance. Nations must not let unambitious targets in the current draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework prevent them from maximizing their biodiversity-conservation actions over the next decade.

Minimising the environmental impacts of biofuel production is an urgent global challenge. Over the next decade, increased demand for sugarcane-based ethanol in Brazil could result in over one million hectares of the nation's native forest and grassland being replaced directly by sugarcane or indirectly by displaced crops and pastureland. Here we integrate future ethanol demand scenarios in Brazil within a spatially-explicit planning framework aimed at minimising impacts of ethanol-driven agricultural expansion on aboveground carbon stocks and 453 species of immediate conservation concern. We show that ethanol-driven agricultural expansion that is blind to carbon and biodiversity values would release 44.9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq), and would impact habitat for at least 273 species. When compared to this conservation-blind scenario, agricultural expansion that avoids carbon and biodiversity values would reduce emissions by 87% (5.8 MtCO2eq) and would avoid impacts on habitat for 113 species. These findings are immediately relevant to policy makers seeking to guide ethanol-driven land-use change away from important environmental areas in Brazil. Our planning methodology can also be extended to other natural areas at risk of bioenergy-driven agricultural expansion.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-20999-7.

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature – one that seeks to correct decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. But persistent shortfalls in ecological representation, management effectiveness and measurable biodiversity outcomes diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how protected area expansion by governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing biodiversity coverage, and identify four emergent issues that –if addressed – will enhance the performance of area-based conservation post-2020. We close with recommendations for a broad biodiversity agenda that maximises the potential of area-based conservation. Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity must recognise that area-based conservation primarily focuses on local threats to species and ecosystems, and needs enhanced emphasis on biodiversity outcomes to better track and fund its contribution to global conservation efforts.

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological representation and management effectiveness diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how the expansion of protected areas by national governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing the coverage across different elements of biodiversity (ecoregions, 12,056 threatened species, 'Key Biodiversity Areas' and wilderness areas) and ecosystem services (productive fisheries, and carbon services on land and sea). To be more successful after 2020, area-based conservation must contribute more effectively to meeting global biodiversity goals-ranging from preventing extinctions to retaining the most-intact ecosystems-and must better collaborate with the many Indigenous peoples, community groups and private initiatives that are central to the successful conservation of biodiversity. The long-term success of area-based conservation requires parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to secure adequate financing, plan for climate change and make biodiversity conservation a far stronger part of land, water and sea management policies. The long-term success of area-based conservation-including both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures-after 2020 will depend on governments securing adequate funding and prioritizing biodiversity in land, water and sea management.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were designed to reconcile environmental protection with socioeconomic development. Here, we compare SDG indicators to a suite of external measures, showing that while most countries are progressing well towards environmental SDGs, this has little relationship with actual biodiversity conservation, and instead better represents socioeconomic development. If this continues, the SDGs will likely serve as a smokescreen for further environmental destruction throughout the decade.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Source Data for Figs. 1 and 2 and all data tables found in the Supplementary Information for "Area-based conservation in the 21st century"

The overconsumption of sugar is associated with several human health issues, including tooth decay, obesity, and non-communicable diseases.1 Many countries therefore aim to reduce sugar consumption to levels recommended by WHO—ie, added sugars should make up less than 10% of total energy intake.1 Early evidence suggests that some interventions effectively curb sugar consumption rates. For example, the purchase of sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico decreased by 8·2% 2 years after a sugar tax was implemented.

Retaining and restoring habitat in areas that will remain climatically suitable through time is a key strategy for helping species' adapt to climate change - particularly in multi-use landscapes where species' find it difficult to track suitable climates. We advance on existing climate-smart conservation planning studies to identify retention and restoration priorities for potential climate change refugia sites in a vast multi-use landscape. We illustrate our approach for Australia's Great Dividing Range (GDR), where the entire habitat of 26 vertebrate species – including 11 endemics – will be climatically unsuitable by the year 2085 under a high emissions scenario. We developed two planning scenarios to secure areas that will remain climatically suitable for an additional 1036 vertebrate species in the GDR – a scenario that permits both the retention of high quality habitat and the restoration of land currently used for forestry or agriculture (i.e. ‘balanced’) and a scenario that favours the retention of high quality habitat above land restoration efforts (i.e. ‘retention-focused’). For both planning scenarios, we identified priority conservation areas that will complement existing protected areas in the GDR and then compared ecological trade-offs associated with adopting a balanced or retention-focused approach to conservation. We found that a retention-focused approach would deliver equivalent ecological benefits for most species, and enhanced conservation of climatically suitable area for 95 other species, when compared to a balanced planning approach. Under a balanced planning approach, seventy-four percent of high priority conservation area (49,650 km2) would overlap with forestry or agricultural land-uses, and hence will require extensive restoration efforts to serve as habitat for climate-imperilled species. However, we found that at least 270 species in the GDR rely heavily on ecological restoration of agricultural lands to persist under climate change. Our study provides immediate guidance for on-ground management actions, and provides a robust methodology that can support climate change adaptation decisions in multi-use landscapes around the world.

Intact tropical forests, free from substantial anthropogenic influence, store and sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon but are currently neglected in international climate policy. We show that between 2000 and 2013, direct clearance of intact tropical forest areas accounted for 3.2% of gross carbon emissions from all deforestation across the pantropics. However, full carbon accounting requires the consideration of forgone carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation. When these factors were considered, the net carbon impact resulting from intact tropical forest loss between 2000 and 2013 increased by a factor of 6 (626%), from 0.34 (0.37 to 0.21) to 2.12 (2.85 to 1.00) petagrams of carbon (equivalent to approximately 2 years of global land use change emissions). The climate mitigation value of conserving the 549 million ha of tropical forest that remains intact is therefore significant but will soon dwindle if their rate of loss continues to accelerate.