This paper aims to provide policy makers in low income and middle income countries with a pragmatic review of the critical issues in formulating effective strategies and planning to embrace the next generation of mobile cellular technology. In a context of industry lobbying of governments to promote 5G, the paper attempts to bring clarity to just what are the critical issues, specifically for an industrial policy to deal with this novel but complex technology. Planning for 5G is a series of complicated choices as there are issues at the levels of creating ecosystems to support it, unproven business models, with claims for applications which may not be financially viable, yet, plus confusion over choices of radio spectrum, and selection of equipment suppliers, even potential issues over public health, as well as the real level of industrial and consumer demand beyond the hype. The emphasis here is on the importance of making balanced strategic choices, by identifying the basic issues, in a 'realpolitik' fashion - including why embrace 5G at all. The paper develops its insights from lessons learnt in the introduction of the previous mobile generation, LTE, also from policy studies on small cells and on designing auctions for 5G networks, as well as various 5G-focused publications from governments, regulatory authorities, mobile industry associations and global suppliers over the past six years (2015–2020). It examines whether to regulate 5G deployment with a heavy or light-touch regime, also whether to focus on more than the traditional indicators, such as penetration and coverage, or on "transformational outcomes" (as the promotional literature terms them) for the private and public sectors.

Purpose Tariffs for international mobile roaming (IMR) are often viewed by governments as an additional tax on international trade and on tourism. IMR customer bills may appear to be arbitrary and sometimes excessive. The purpose of this paper is therefore to set out a pragmatic approach to assessing international charges for mobile roaming, making use of a realistic cost model of the international roaming process and its cost elements, at a level that is useful to regulatory authorities and operators. Design/methodology/approach The discussion presented is based on industry practices for handling voice calls and data sessions with the mobile network operators (MNOs) business model, based on industry sources. The basic mechanisms use two common constructs from business analysis – business processes and use-cases – to provide a simplified form of activity-based costing. This provides a model suitable for national regulatory authorities to move towards cost-based IMR tariffs. Findings Using a perspective on costs based on a bottom-up survey procedure for elucidating the key information, the paper presents the cost elements for the various IMR network components and business processes, with an approach suitable for analysing both wholesale and retail pricing. Research limitations/implications The method is specifically designed to overcome the key problem of such approaches, the limitations set by differences in network technologies, network topology, operational scale and the engineering, as well as MNO business model and accounting practices, which otherwise would preclude the method presented here from being vendor neutral. Practical implications Vendor and network engineering neutrality implies the approach can be used to compare different MNOs in terms of the validity of their IMR charges and whether they are cost based. Social implications Impacts on society of so-called “bill-shock” have become quite common, increasingly for data sessions. The cost model presented here was developed with the intention of improving the accountability and transparency of the mobile roaming market. It thus assists in the introduction of cost-based tariffs over an economic region, such the European Union. Originality/value The paper examines the practical implications of building large-scale cost models for assessing the real IMR costs, a modelling exercise that has not been seen elsewhere in terms of its approach and neutrality as to MNO structure and assets.

Purpose - Proponents of 5G predict a huge market for 5G goods and services with millions of new jobs being created. The purpose of this paper is to make a realistic assessment of the 5G initiative, with a focus on Europe. Design/methodology/approach - The paper reviews the technical, economic and policy literature to analyse the case for 5G in Europe. Findings - The 5G initiative in Europe, as well as globally, has so far failed to assess objectively the future needs of its customers, whether consumer or business, to articulate a set of sound business cases. Originality/value - There is little independent assessment of 5G in the academic literature. The paper makes an original contribution through questioning the dominant supply-driven industry perspective.

Prepared by Policy Department A at the request of the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE), this report examines the current state of play in the open data market and the legal framework in the EU. Barriers and possible solutions are identified in the form of future scenarios to 2020-25. The key policy recommendation is to instigate a system of Open Data Licensing to drive access to open data, akin to open source software licensing.

Purpose The aim of this paper is to consider whether it is possible to identify the future spectrum bands most suitable for the Internet of Things (IoT) from the operating factors of a novel set of radio services for a very wide range of applications, as an aid to policy makers now facing decisions in this area. Design/methodology/approach The approach uses characteristics of spectrum bands against the applications’ requirements to focus on specific major traits that can be matched. Findings The main choice factors for spectrum are the practical application needs and the network cost model, and these are fairly useful as matching parameters. It is forecast that multiple bands will be needed and that these should be of a licence-exempt form to seed the unfettered innovation of IoT technologies and pre-empt the formation of significant market power by concerned interests. Practical implications The way in which spectrum is allocated today will need to be reconsidered, in the light of evolving IoT requirements, which will have increasing economic and social impacts. Policy recommendations for IoT spectrum demands are outlined, and key policy options to ensure a dynamic and trustworthy development of the IoT are put forward. For instance, regulatory barriers globally will need to be removed. Originality/value Current interests in the technical requirements of the IoT have not yet given a suitable analysis of the potential spectrum uses, because too often, it is assumed that previous models of spectrum allocation will continue in the future, without consideration of the economic pressures and social context.

So far fourth generation (4G) has not been well defined technically, functionally or commercially despite conceptual research having been quietly under way since 1998. But as we have not fully rolled out and digested 2.5G, let alone 3G, why on earth should we be interested in a still further mobile technology? And how will WiFi, WiMAX and existing networks figure in all of this? The answer is that 4G will fundamentally advance the way we use mobile and existing networks and repair the problems of 3G. If allowed to, 4G can take us from radio technologies and concepts of the 1920s into the next era of radio communications using “open spectrum”. And 4G may be able to answer many cost and technical problems of the earlier mobile systems. Once its technical blueprint is worked out, 4G faces enormous challenges, far more than the technical, in commercial/political battles with what it could replace. We examine its challenges here, also considering regulatory policy, which would require that the mobile element is seen as only one of at least six components. The different scenarios for its early development are also briefly reviewed.

PurposeThe software industry is rapidly being reformed by the collective development of open, common software – open source software (OSS) – sometimes being free at no charge, but always with the source code revealed for changing, testing and improvement. The purpose here is to examine the role and power of software in the economy and review the economic impacts of the trend to OSS on the software industry, largely from a European industrial and social perspective.Design/methodology/approachThe paper briefly traces the economic significance of the software industry and the dominance in packaged software of the large US publishers, the phenomena of natural monopolies building in software packages, and the need for different industry structure for Europe, as it exhibits a small to medium‐sized enterprise (SME) and system integrator structure. It then examines the balancing affects of OSS. The paper also addresses the role that poor software plays in creating new costs or externalities for its users when it fails, contrasting the robustness of open source in defect repair.FindingsThe paper finds that the way forward in economic terms for Europe may well be to follow and encourage OSS for reasons of creating a strong software industry and for a counterbalance to current monopolistic trends.Practical implicationsThe paper's findings emphasise the need for investment, education and encouragement in OSS, by both the public and private sectors, to build a strong knowledge‐based society in Europe.Originality/valueThe paper introduces the ideas of the basic economic mechanisms of volume sales of software as a good, with analysis of the industry impacts of confluence of the network effect coupled with the law of increasing returns with volume to drive monopolistic positions in the proprietary software package industry.

PurposeThe European telecommunications landscape has been transformed over the past 25 years, but spectrum management has remained largely unchanged. The paper seeks to highlight the need for a more flexible approach to spectrum management and, in particular, the role of shared spectrum access.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws on a research study to examine the value of shared spectrum access, based on a review of the literature, a survey of European national regulatory authorities, and scenario analysis.FindingsThe paper highlights trends in wireless data growth and, in particular, the impact of 4G cellular mobile technology over the next five years. With pressure also growing on the licence‐exempt bands at 2.4 and 5 GHz, a more flexible approach to spectrum management will be required in future, including light licensing, de‐licensing and spectrum sharing.Originality/valueThe paper brings together a range of evidence to show how the current approach to spectrum management is no longer able to cope with the social and economic demands for the radio spectrum. It should be of value to policy makers, industry analysts and academics.

Indicates a way forward, using some of the lessons from adjacent technology sectors. Focuses on the current US Department of Justice Anti‐Trust division’s arguments and proposals in the Microsoft case – in particular the analysis of subsequent action in the event of an affirmative ruling on dismemberment. Makes use of Figures for an explanatory aid in the article.

This report is one of a series resulting from a project entitled Competitiveness by Leveraging Emerging Technologies Economically (COMPLETE), carried out by JRC-IPTS. Each of the COMPLETE studies illustrates in its own right that European companies are active on many fronts of emerging and disruptive ICT technologies and are supplying the market with relevant products and services. Nevertheless, the studies also show that the creation and growth of high tech companies is still very complex and difficult in Europe, and too many economic opportunities seem to escape European initiatives and ownership. COMPLETE helps to illustrate some of the difficulties experienced in different segments of the ICT industry and by growing potential global players. Hopefully, COMPLETE will contribute to a better understanding of the opportunities and help shape better market conditions (financial, labour and product markets) to sustain European competitiveness and economic growth. This report deals with robotics applications in general, and in two specific areas selected because of potential market and EU capability in these areas: robotics applications in SMEs, and robotics safety. It starts by introducing the state of the art in robotics, their applications, market size, value chains and disruptive potential of emerging robotics technologies. For each of the two specific areas, the report describes the EU landscape, potential market, benefits, difficulties, and how these might be overcome. The last chapter draws together the findings of the study, to consider EU competitiveness in robotics, opportunities and policy implications. The work is based on desk research and targeted interviews with industry experts in Europe and beyond. The results were reviewed by experts and in a dedicated workshop.

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to report on a novel approach to assessing long‐term policy and technology impacts. This approach combines a qualitative forecast with a tri‐level quantitative projection to provide a broadly socio‐economic analysis. It is aimed at forecasting problems, such as impact assessment for future policy formulation in the light of socio‐economic, technological and market developments.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based on a variety of research methods including scenario planning, and techniques taken from analysis of stochastic processes to identify and correlate behaviour, combined with the concepts meso‐economics, in order to produce more robust tri‐level quantitative estimations, driven by qualitative analysis.FindingsThe paper finds that it is possible to join micro‐economic behaviour to macro‐economic, using meso‐economics to attack what was previously seen as a difficult gap between the two. It also finds that quantitative forecasting, based on socio‐economic behaviour using the qualitative assessment from a scenario – i.e. from stories about the future – can form a basis for quantitative forecasting. Different scenarios may be linked to corresponding quantitative economic estimations using key indicator parameters at each economic level, those which are the most relevant to the scenarios, and so exploit statistical techniques across the three levels in a balanced fashion.Originality/valueThis paper summarises a novel approach, taking a fresh look at forecasting economic impacts assessments by shaping the quantitative form with a qualitative tool, while introducing the linking powers of meso‐economics. General economic theories in widespread use today seem to be weak when dealing with the non‐deterministic nature of real markets and economies and especially in linking micro‐economic parameters to macro‐economic. The approach attempts to resolve this dilemma. An example is presented of its use in a recent study.

PurposeThe paper aims to explore two developing display technologies, organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) and e‐paper, with a view to assessing their potential to disrupt existing markets and thereby offer an opportunity for European firms to play a larger role in the Information and communication technologies (ICTs) sector.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based on an extensive study including literature review and detailed desk research on the technologies themselves, their potential application and market analysis. Selected interviews with industry representatives were also carried out, which further informed a detailed value chain analysis and assessment of the EU position in these technologies.FindingsOLEDs and e‐paper have the potential to disrupt current displays market and in so doing they may enable EU companies to enter at selected points in the value chain to compete with the Asian ICT industry.Originality/valueAlthough there is a huge literature on the technical aspects of these technologies, speculative market analysis and journalistic assessments, this paper brings all of these facets together in a sophisticated value chain analysis that indicates opportunities for Europe's ICT sector.

The environmental issue has generally received much attention from the public for decades, especially as a result of heavy industry - electrical energy, oil and gas, mining, steel and metals. Recently, attention has been paid to Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and its effect on the knowledge and related industries. Broadband, both fixed and mobile, is not an exception. Even though it has been recognized as a factor that has contributed to social and economic development, a negative effect can also be seen in particular regarding the environment. This paper provides a review of how government policy, in particular by the EU and Japan, are moving towards the transition to sustainability by utilizing ICT, as well as an evaluation of the pros and cons of broadband development. There are many complex effects on sustainability due to ICT. Since ICT can have environmental effects both as enabling energy efficiency and causing rebound effects, the policies should respond to both direct and indirect effects. To facilitate policy analysis and recommendations, this paper categorizes ICT impacts by five orders of aggregation. These five orders of aggregation may contribute both positively and negatively to sustainability, and each level will need targeted policies. The five orders of aggregation suggest a comprehensive and long term view of policy development, encompassing even policies that seek to improve the quality of decision making in our societies, by utilizing ICTs.

This paper reviews spectrum management options in terms of three main models: command and control, the market based approach and unlicensed commons. The principles derived from each model, including a SWOT analysis, are discussed in the context of three major spectrum management allocation in Sweden - GSM, UMTS and CDMA. Each of these allocations had different legal contexts, as the cases span over a long time period in which several new laws have been promulgated. Lessons for the future are drawn with implications for other nations that are reviewing their current spectrum management regimes.