Digital innovations can offer solutions to various food, water, and land systems challenges globally. However, there are concerns on the ethical and social inclusivity aspects of these innovations, particularly for marginalized groups of people in less industrialised countries. In this article, we describe the design and development of a digital inclusivity framework, which builds from a detailed synthesis of inclusivity in digital literature. Key insights from the review were collated into five dimensions: risk mitigation, accessibility, usability, benefits, and participation. These dimensions can be assessed by means of twenty-one concrete and measurable sub indicators. Our focus was to enable a more holistic approach to the usually technocentric design of digital innovations. The framework, including the associated indicators, lays the groundwork for the development of a digital inclusivity index, a tool for assessing and fostering the inclusivity of digital innovations in food, water, and land systems.

Antibiotics have revolutionised medicine in the last century and enabled the prevention of bacterial infections that were previously deemed untreatable. However, in parallel, bacteria have increasingly developed resistance to antibiotics through various mechanisms. When resistant bacteria find their way into terrestrial and aquatic environments, animal and human exposures increase, e.g., via polluted soil, food, and water, and health risks multiply. Understanding the fate and transport of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and the transfer mechanisms of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in aquatic environments is critical for evaluating and mitigating the risks of resistant-induced infections. The conceptual understanding of sources and pathways of antibiotics, ARB, and ARGs from society to the water environments is essential for setting the scene and developing an appropriate framework for modelling. Various factors and processes associated with hydrology, ecology, and climate change can significantly affect the fate and transport of ARB and ARGs in natural environments. This article reviews current knowledge, research gaps, and priorities for developing water quality models to assess the fate and transport of ARB and ARGs. The paper also provides inputs on future research needs, especially the need for new predictive models to guide risk assessment on AR transmission and spread in aquatic environments.

CONTEXT: Digital innovations can enhance the participation of often-marginalized social groups - including women and resource-poor farmers in low- and middle-income countries - in sustainable, profitable food systems. But digital interventions can also reinforce existing inequities by further increasing the competitive advantage of user groups privileged with literacy, access to smartphones, or high investment capacity. To ensure that the digital transformation in the Global South leaves no one behind, therefore, deliberate efforts are needed to promote the inclusivity of emerging digital innovations. To date, however, there is a lack of practical guidelines and tools to critically assess, demonstrate, and enhance the inclusivity of digital food systems interventions. Too often, inclusivity remains a blurry concept and distant objective. In result, digital development researchers and practitioners have limited incentives for investing time and effort into safeguarding inclusivity. OBJECTIVE: With this short communication, we intend to contribute to future, practice-oriented discussions about social inclusivity in development-oriented digital interventions for sustainable food systems. We provide a critical reflection on the current discourse around digital inclusion in development context and outline challenges and opportunities for considering inclusivity in the design and deployment of digital food system innovations. METHODS: Drawing on literature as well as the authors' own experiences with the design and implementation of digital innovations within research-for-development, we highlight 'blind spots' in the current discourse around digital inclusion in lowand middle-income country context. We then develop practical suggestions for overcoming these limitations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We propose a concrete agenda for enabling researchers and other innovation stakeholders, including donors, to contribute to more inclusive digital food system innovation in lowand middle-income countries. First, a standard concept and procedure is required for transparently assessing the inclusivity of digital services. Second, as many digital development stakeholders work under resource constraints, simple design tools can help them effectively consider social inclusion criteria during the design of digital solutions. Lastly, a stronger emphasis on inclusivity is required throughout the research-for-development system, ensuring that design processes themselves are inclusive, rather than considering only the final digital products. SIGNIFICANCE: As the importance of digital innovation keeps growing within the wider agricultural development discourse, this article helps researchers and practitioners gain conceptual clarity on the goal of digital inclusion. Through concrete suggestions on how inclusivity could be considered in practice, the article promotes a more equitable, inclusive digital transformation of food systems.

Worldwide hundreds of millions of people suffer from water, food and energy insecurity in transboundary river basins, such as the Zambezi River Basin. The interconnected nature of nexus is often not recognized in investment planning and many regional policymakers lack adequate tools to tackle it. Future growing demands and climate change add an additional challenge. In this study, we combine policy relevant co-developed stakeholder scenarios and integrated nexus modeling tools to identify key solutions to achieve sustainable development in the Zambezi. Results show that siloed development without coordination achieves the least economic and social benefits in the long term. Prioritizing economic benefits by maximizing the use of available natural resources results in the expansion of irrigated areas by more than a million hectares and increase in hydropower production by 22,000 GWh/year in the coming decades, bringing significant economic benefits, up to $12.7 billion per year, but causes local water scarcity and negative impacts on the environment. Combining environmental protection policies with sustainable investments of $7.2 billion per year (e.g. groundwater pumping and wastewater treatment and reuse, irrigation efficiency improvements, and farmer support aimed to improve food security and productivity) results in significantly higher social benefits with economic benefits that still reach $11.7 billion per year.

As we embark on the 'fourth industrial revolution', digital innovation emerges as a promising solution to critical challenges in food production, consumption, and the supportive triad of food, land, and water systems. This potential is particularly pronounced in less industrialised, agrarian-based economies. Digital advancements promise enhanced communication, improved data management, democratic and transparent governance, accessible financial services, and decision-making support. Nevertheless, there are rising concerns about the risk of digital inno-vation bypassing individuals with scant education, scarce resources, native populations, and susceptible demographics such as women and young people, thus depriving them of its ad-vantages. Additionally, the potential harms of digital technologies to these populations and soci-ety are worth considerable attention. This article addresses the concept of digital inclusivity within food, land, and water systems, emphasising the diverse needs of various groups, particu-larly those managing smallholder land holdings. We present evidence from peer-reviewed litera-ture and other sources supporting the need for inclusive digital innovation. We introduce a comprehensive five-dimensional framework CAUSE (Consequences, Accessibility, Usefulness, Support, Enabling) with twenty-two indicators to foster digital inclusivity. Building on this framework, we propose a 'Digital Inclusivity Index' encompassing these multidimensional as-pects. The paper argues for a broader 'digital ecosystem' perspective, where collaborative knowledge and resource sharing enhance digital innovation, extending beyond mere technology adoption to include shifts in existing social structures and institutions. Thus, the CAUSE framework helps in enabling wider access to digital innovation and has the useful consequence of increased support for its practical applications, enhancing its overall usefulness to society.

In recent decades, antibiotic resistance (AR) has become a public health concern fuelled by increasing antibiotic consumption in many societies. Aquatic environments play a crucial role in AR development and spread where they receive antibiotics, antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) from a number of sources such as agriculture, aquaculture and wastewater treatment plants. Modelling is an increasingly important approach to understanding AR in aquatic environments and helps identify resistance patterns of emerging concern, evaluate fate and transport, and assess infection risks as well as look into their management in the future. However, current water quality models need to be improved to deal with the development and spread of AR. Prioritising the development of fate and transport models for AR could provide insights into bacterial evolution and help manage environmental pollution. This article provides a conceptual water quality modelling framework through a concise review of methods and approaches that can be used to model and evaluate AR in aquatic environments at the watershed scale. The key steps that need to build a framework include identifying sources and loadings, modelling the fate and transport of ARB and quantifying associated risks to humans and animals. Developing modelling scenarios and management strategies based on the framework could also contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals 3 (good health and well-being) and 6 (clean water and sanitation).

Understanding the different perceptions of the local community regarding the use and management of common pool resources, such as exclosures, could better support targeted interventions by government and development partners. Here, we report on a study conducted in the Gomit watershed, northwestern Ethiopia, using a survey and key informant interviews, to examine community perceptions on (a) the biophysical condition (i.e., challenge of land degradation and restoration), (b) the action situations (user's access to and control over resources and decision‐making processes involved in taking actions in managing the exclosure), (c) actors' interactions (formal and informal institutions involved in the management of exclosures), and (d) perceived outcomes (benefits and tradeoffs of managing exclosures). Many people in the Gomit watershed recognize land degradation as a serious problem and believe that exclosures support restoration of degraded landscapes and improve ecosystem services. Informal institutions play a key role in managing exclosures by improving benefit sharing and mobilizing the local community for collective action. However, some community members have concerns about recent expansion of exclosures because of (a) limited short‐term derived benefits, (b) reductions in fuelwood availability, (c) increased degradation of remaining communal grazing lands, and (d) poor participation of marginalized groups in decision making. Addressing such concerns through the promotion of short‐term benefits of exclosures and increasing community participation in decision‐making and benefit sharing is crucial. The study provides evidence to support government and development partners on the establishment and management of exclosures through identifying the benefits and drawbacks as perceived by different sectors of the community.

Food, land, and water systems are facing unprecedented change. The world’s population is projected to grow to approximately 10 billion people by 2050, while aging and declining in some regions. Global average incomes are expected to keep increasing at a slow but steady pace. With increasing incomes and the ability of consumers to purchase more and better food in combination with population growth, food demand is projected to grow substantially over the next three decades. Meanwhile, demographic changes and economic development also drive urbanization, migration, and structural transformation of rural communities. At the same time changes to precipitation and temperature as well as the occurrence of extreme events driven by climate change are becoming more prevalent and impacting society and the environment. Currently, humanity is approaching or exceeding planetary boundaries in some areas, with over-use of limited productive natural resources such as water and phosphate, net emissions of greenhouse gases, and decreases in biodiversityMuch is published about food and agriculture and the supporting/underpinning land and water systems, but no single source focuses regularly and systematically on the future of agriculture and food systems, particularly on the challenges and opportunities faced by developing countries. This working paper is part of an effort by the CGIAR foresight team to help fill that gap. The effort recognizes that there is much to learn from past experience, and there are clearly many urgent and immediate challenges, but given the pace and complexity of change we are currently experiencing, there is also an increasing need to look carefully into the future of food, land, and water systems to inform decision making today.

The development of and access to freshwater resources in East Africa is fundamental to the region's sustainable development goals. Following vision documents for regional development and working with local stake-holders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modeling analysis of the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Water scenarios that take an integrated approach to assessing the combined effects of climate change, land use, and increasing human water use suggest that the flow regime of the Nile may remain relatively stable. However, if this stability is to be achieved, while at the same time sufficient water is preserved for healthy freshwater ecosystems, a large fraction of water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly technologies and management. Interconnected analyses of both upstream and downstream water resources over time, guided by co-developed scenarios, are indispensable for planning sustainable water-development pathways.

Groundwater, the largest available global freshwater resource, plays a crucial role in human sustenance and global food security through drinking water supplies and irrigated agriculture. In recent times, many parts of the world have been experiencing discernable, large-scale groundwater depletion, and pollution. A large groundwater-dependent population, uncertain climate-reliant recharge processes, transboundary water sources, major geogenic-sourced, nonpoint contaminants, inefficient irrigation methods and human practices, and indiscriminate land use change with rising urbanization underscore the urgent need to develop models of sustainability and security for global groundwater, in terms of both quantity and quality. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these issues. We need to understand the main factors that control groundwater availability (quantity and quality) in a changing world, where climate change and human factors (overexploitation, pollution, economics, agro-food aspects and their socioeconomic side, and governance intervention) deeply influence water availability. Because groundwater represents a critical source of water in many areas, especially in developing countries, there is a need to analyze physical (hydrological), chemical (hydrogeochemistry), and human (socioeconomic) aspects within a comprehensive framework to define sustainability. Groundwater, which forms a large component of attaining the sustainable development goals, is difficult to manage (mostly not visible, limited monitoring of groundwater levels, recharge, and abstraction, poorly defined flow boundaries; transboundary issues; poor management of abstraction; uncertainty in groundwater–surface water inter-connections) and hence requires comprehensive scale–dependent governance plans. From an economic and governance point of view, there has been insufficient attention given to groundwater as a resource, which is both hidden but widely considered ubiquitous. Solutions, incorporating emerging and innovative technologies, need to be integrated with traditional knowledge, to develop future groundwater security.

Seasonal mismatches between electricity supply and demand is increasing due to expanded use of wind, solar and hydropower resources, which in turn raises the interest on low-cost seasonal energy storage options. Seasonal pumped hydropower storage (SPHS) can provide long-term energy storage at a relatively low-cost and co-benefits in the form of freshwater storage capacity. We present the first estimate of the global assessment of SPHS potential, using a novel plant-siting methodology based on high-resolution topographical and hydrological data. Here we show that SPHS costs vary from 0.007 to 0.2 US$ m −1 of water stored, 1.8 to 50 US$ MWh −1 of energy stored and 370 to 600 US$ kW −1 of installed power generation. This potential is unevenly distributed with mountainous regions demonstrating significantly more potential. The estimated world energy storage capacity below a cost of 50 US$ MWh −1 is 17.3 PWh, approximately 79% of the world electricity consumption in 2017.

The development of and access to freshwater resources is fundamental if East Africa aims to achieve its goal of increased economic growth. Following vision documents for regional development and working together with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modelling analysis for the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Results indicate a 4-5 fold increase in water demand, especially for expanding irrigation and domestic water needs. Together with climate and land use change, the discharge and flow regime of the Nile will remain relatively stable. However, if this is to be achieved, while sufficient water is preserved for environmental needs, a large fraction of future water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly, technological, and management options. The interconnected analysis, between up-stream and down-stream water resources and sectoral water demand, guided by co-developed scenarios, supports planning of sustainable water pathways.

Feeding 9 billion people in 2050 will require sustainable development of all water resources, both surface and subsurface. Yet, little is known about the irrigation potential of hillside shallow aquifers in many highland settings in sub-Saharan Africa that are being considered for providing irrigation water during the dry monsoon phase for smallholder farmers. Information on the shallow groundwater being available in space and time on sloping lands might aid in increasing food production in the dry monsoon phase. Therefore, the research objective of this work is to estimate potential groundwater storage as a potential source of irrigation water for hillside aquifers where lateral subsurface flow is dominant. The research was carried out in the Robit Bata experimental watershed in the Lake Tana basin which is typical of many undulating watersheds in the Ethiopian highlands. Farmers have excavated more than 300 hand dug wells for irrigation. We used 42 of these wells to monitor water table fluctuation from April 16, 2014 to December 2015. Precipitation and runoff data were recorded for the same period. The temporal groundwater storage was estimated using two methods: one based on the water balance with rainfall as input and baseflow and evaporative losses leaving the watershed as outputs; the second based on the observed rise and fall of water levels in wells. We found that maximum groundwater storage was at the end of the rain phase in September after which it decreased linearly until the middle of December due to short groundwater retention times. In the remaining part of the dry season period, only wells located close to faults contained water. Thus, without additional water sources, sloping lands can only be used for significant irrigation inputs during the first 3 months out of the 8 months long dry season.

The Indus River Basin faces severe water quality degradation because of nutrient enrichment from human activities. Excessive nutrients in tributaries are transported to the river mouth, causing coastal eutrophication. This situation may worsen in the future because of population growth, economic development, and climate change. This study aims at a better understanding of the magnitude and sources of current (2010) and future (2050) river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by the Indus River at the sub-basin scale. To do this, we implemented the MARINA 1.0 model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs). The model inputs for human activities (e.g., agriculture, land use) were mainly from the GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Model) models. Model inputs for hydrology were from the Community WATer Model (CWATM). For 2050, three scenarios combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs 1, 2 and 3) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 6.0) were selected. A novelty of this study is the sub-basin analysis of future N export by the Indus River for SSPs and RCPs. Result shows that river export of TDN by the Indus River will increase by a factor of 1.6-2 between 2010 and 2050 under the three scenarios. >90% of the dissolved N exported by the Indus River is from midstream sub-basins. Human waste is expected to be the major source, and contributes by 66-70% to river export of TDN in 2050 depending on the scenarios. Another important source is agriculture, which contributes by 21-29% to dissolved inorganic N export in 2050. Thus a combined reduction in both diffuse and point sources in the midstream sub-basins can be effective to reduce coastal water pollution by nutrients at the river mouth of Indus.

Addressing challenges of water, energy and food security, nexus approaches towards resources management are being developed and starting to be implemented. However, the ecosystem perspective, essential for sustainable resources management, has been identified as a missing element within earlier nexus assessments. With regard to water they have mainly focused on the allocation to different sectors and users, while ecosystem services were rarely explicitly addressed. Existing aquatic ecosystem models are capable of quantifying a wide range of ecosystem services, but have thus far not been comprehensively used in a nexus context. Recent developments in aquatic ecosystem modelling approaches provide opportunities to achieve the sought integration of ecosystem services in the nexus approach. Therefore, we argue for a stronger role of aquatic ecosystem models in nexus assessments.

The risk of seasonal mismatches between electricity supply and demand is increasing due to expanded use of wind, solar and hydropower resources. Power system planners are thus in search of low-cost seasonal energy storage options. Seasonal Pumped-Storage (SPS) can provide short, medium and long-term energy storage at a relatively low-cost and provides co-benefits in the form of freshwater storage capacity. Here, we present the first global assessment of SPS potential, using a novel plant-siting methodology and high-resolution topographical and hydrological data. Our results show that SPS costs vary from 0.007 to 0.2 $/m3 of water stored, 1.8 to 50 $/MWh of energy stored and 0.37 to 0.6 $/GW of installed power generation capacity. The estimated world energy storage capacity below a cost of 50 $/MWh is 17.3 PWh, approximately 79% of the world electricity consumption in 2017.