Whether or not Brain Care Score (BCS) components are associated with longitudinal changes in mood disorders is not clear. For this study, we tested the hypothesis that the BCS also significantly correlates to late-life depression incidence in the UKB.

Despite a gradual decline in smoking rates over time, exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) continues to cause harm to nonsmokers, who are disproportionately children and women living in low- and middle-income countries. We comprehensively reviewed the literature published by July 2022 concerning the adverse impacts of SHS exposure on nine health outcomes. Following, we quantified each exposure-response association accounting for various sources of uncertainty and evaluated the strength of the evidence supporting our analyses using the Burden of Proof Risk Function methodology. We found all nine health outcomes to be associated with SHS exposure. We conservatively estimated that SHS increases the risk of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and lung cancer by at least around 8%, 5%, 1% and 1%, respectively, with the evidence supporting these harmful associations rated as weak (two stars). The evidence supporting the harmful associations between SHS and otitis media, asthma, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was weaker (one star). Despite the weak underlying evidence for these associations, our results reinforce the harmful effects of SHS on health and the need to prioritize advancing efforts to reduce active and passive smoking through a combination of public health policies and education initiatives.

Background: The Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process with practitioners and patients for implementation into primary care to stimulate behavioral changes and lifestyle choices to sustainably reduce the incidence of dementia and stroke ( Fig 1) . Methods: To assess its validity as associated with incidence of dementia and stroke, the BCS was derived from the UK Biobank (UKB) baseline evaluation (2006-2010) for participants aged 40-69. Cox proportional hazards regression were used to estimate associations between the BCS and incident dementia and stroke, adjusted for sex, and stratified by age groups at baseline. Findings: The BCS (median: 12; IQR:11-14) was calculated for 398,990 UKB participants (mean age: 57; females: 54%). There were 5,354 incidents of dementia and 7,259 incidents of stroke during a median follow-up of 12.5 years. On average, a 5-point increase in baseline BCS was associated with a substantial significant decrease in dementia incidence (for those aged <50 years: HR: 0.41 [95%CI: 0.28-0.60], aged 50-59: HR: 0.68 [95%CI: 0.58-0.80], and aged >59 (HR: 0.92 [95%CI: 0.86-0.98]) as well as stroke incidence (for those aged <50 years: HR: 0.52 [95%CI: 0.44-0.61], aged 50-59: HR: 0.48 [95%CI: 0.44-0.53], and aged >59: HR: 0.67 [95%CI: 0.63-0.71]) (Fig 2). Interpretation: The BCS at baseline is strongly associated with risk of dementia and stroke in the UKB. Future research should include investigating the adaptability and implementation of the BCS for patients and providers into routine care worldwide.

We aimed to assess the associations of the Brain Care Score (BCS) with risk of incident dementia and stroke.

Investigate whether the association between Brain Care Score (BCS) and outcomes is independent of genetic predisposition for the same outcomes and whether improving the BCS among UK Biobank (UKB) participants could mitigate the effect of high genetic risk of dementia, stroke, and depression.

Observational data provide invaluable real-world information in medicine, but certain methodological considerations are required to derive causal estimates. In this systematic review, we evaluated the methodology and reporting quality of individual-level patient data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs) conducted with non-randomized exposures, published in 2009, 2014, and 2019 that sought to estimate a causal relationship in medicine. We screened over 16,000 titles and abstracts, reviewed 45 full-text articles out of the 167 deemed potentially eligible, and included 29 into the analysis. Unfortunately, we found that causal methodologies were rarely implemented, and reporting was generally poor across studies. Specifically, only three of the 29 articles used quasi-experimental methods, and no study used G-methods to adjust for time-varying confounding. To address these issues, we propose stronger collaborations between physicians and methodologists to ensure that causal methodologies are properly implemented in IPD-MAs. In addition, we put forward a suggested checklist of reporting guidelines for IPD-MAs that utilize causal methods. This checklist could improve reporting thereby potentially enhancing the quality and trustworthiness of IPD-MAs, which can be considered one of the most valuable sources of evidence for health policy.

Chewing tobacco use poses serious health risks; yet it has not received as much attention as other tobacco-related products. This study synthesizes existing evidence regarding the health impacts of chewing tobacco while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of chewing tobacco and seven health outcomes, drawing on 103 studies published from 1970 to 2023. We use a Burden of Proof meta-analysis to generate conservative risk estimates and find weak-to-moderate evidence that tobacco chewers have an increased risk of stroke, lip and oral cavity cancer, esophageal cancer, nasopharynx cancer, other pharynx cancer, and laryngeal cancer. We additionally find insufficient evidence of an association between chewing tobacco and ischemic heart disease. Our findings highlight a need for policy makers, researchers, and communities at risk to devote greater attention to chewing tobacco by both advancing tobacco control efforts and investing in strengthening the existing evidence base.

The 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) is a novel tool designed to motivate individuals and care providers to take action to reduce the risk of stroke and dementia by motivating lifestyle changes (Fig 1). In this study we aimed to assess if the BCS is also associated with brain changes on MRI in people who have not yet developed dementia or stroke. Methods: This study was conducted within the MRI substudy of the longitudinal cohort study UK Biobank. The assessed MRI neuroimaging markers included: brain volume, white matter hyperintensities (WMH) volume, fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD). FA/MD metrics were calculated as the average across 48 discrete brain regions. We used multivariable linear regression to test for association between the BCS computed using baseline data (2006-2010) and neuroimaging markers, measured both during first (2014+) and repeat (2019+) MRI assessments. Results: There were 34,772 study participants with MRIs and available BCS data (mean age 55, 53% female). Every five-point increase in the BCS was associated with an 11% increase in brain volume (Beta 0.11, SE 0.01), a 26% reduction in WMH volume (Beta -0.26, SE 0.01), a 13% increase in average FA (Beta 0.13, SE 0.02), and a 9% decrease in average MD (Beta -0.09, SE 0.01). There were 3,778 study participants with first and repeat MRI (mean age 53, 53% female). Comparing the first and repeat imaging assessments, every five-point increase in baseline BCS was associated with a slower growth in WMH volume (Beta -0.08, SE 0.03) and a slower reduction in average FA (Beta 0.11, SE 0.03). Discussion: Among middle-aged adults without dementia or stroke, a higher BCS is strongly associated with better neuroimaging brain health profiles and slower rates of brain health decline. Given that the neuroimaging markers evaluated in our study are recognized risk factors that precede stroke and dementia by many years, our results support the BCS is a promising tool for early intervention to prevent these conditions.

Introduction: The 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS), developed via a modified Delphi process with practitioners and patients, is a novel instrument designed to motivate behavioral and lifestyle changes, ultimately aiming to decrease incidence of dementia and stroke (Fig 1). Whether or not BCS components are associated with longitudinal changes in mood disorders is not clear. For this study, we tested the hypothesis that the BCS also significantly correlates to late-life depression incidence in the UK Biobank (UKB). Design / Methods: The BCS was derived from UKB participants (using both the hospital and general practitioners cohort) aged 40-69 years, at baseline (2006-2010). After excluding patients with prevalent psychiatric disorders, we performed multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models between the BCS and risk of incident late-life depression, adjusting for sex and stratified by age groups (<50, 50-59, >59 years). Results: The total BCS (median: 12; IQR:11-14) was derived for 416,370/502,408 (83%) UKB participants with complete data (mean age: 57; females: 54%). After exclusion of 50,395 participants who had mood or psychiatric disorders other than depression, a total of 365,975 participants were included in our analysis. In total, 6,628 incident cases of late-life depression were documented during the median follow-up period of 13 years. Each five-point increase in BCS was associated with a 59% (HR: 0.41, 95% CI: -0.03-0.85) decreased incidence of late-life depression among UKB participants aged <50, 35% (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.57-0.74) among those aged 50-59; and 28% (HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.65-0.79) lower risk among those aged >59). Conclusions: In addition to its associations with dementia and stroke incidence, the BCS strongly correlates with late-life depression incidence in the UK Biobank. Additional research is needed to understand the association between BCS elements and late life depression in additional, diverse cohorts.

Cohort and case-control data have suggested an association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and decreased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet results from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies designed to reduce bias have shown either no or a harmful association. Here we conducted an updated systematic review and re-evaluated existing cohort, case-control, and MR data using the burden of proof meta-analytical framework. Cohort and case-control data show low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased IHD risk - specifically, intake is inversely related to IHD and myocardial infarction morbidity in both sexes and IHD mortality in males - while pooled MR data show no association, confirming that self-reported versus genetically predicted alcohol use data yield conflicting findings about the alcohol-IHD relationship. Our results highlight the need to advance MR methodologies and emulate randomized trials using large observational databases to obtain more definitive answers to this critical public health question.

Observational data provide invaluable real-world information in medicine, but certain methodological considerations are required to derive causal estimates. In this systematic review, we evaluated the methodology and reporting quality of individual-level patient data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs) published in 2009, 2014, and 2019 that sought to estimate a causal relationship in medicine. We screened over 16,000 titles and abstracts, reviewed 45 full-text articles out of the 167 deemed potentially eligible, and included 29 into the analysis. Unfortunately, we found that causal methodologies were rarely implemented, and reporting was generally poor across studies. Specifically, only three of the 29 articles used quasi-experimental methods, and no study used G-methods to adjust for time-varying confounding. To address these issues, we propose stronger collaborations between physicians and methodologists to ensure that causal methodologies are properly implemented in IPD-MAs. In addition, we put forward a suggested checklist of reporting guidelines for IPD-MAs that utilize causal methods. This checklist could improve reporting thereby potentially enhancing the quality and trustworthiness of IPD-MAs, which can be considered one of the most valuable sources of evidence for health policy.

The health impacts of intimate partner violence against women and childhood sexual abuse are not fully understood. Here we conducted a systematic review by comprehensively searching seven electronic databases for literature on intimate partner violence-associated and childhood sexual abuse-associated health effects. Following the burden of proof methodology, we evaluated the evidence strength linking intimate partner violence and/or childhood sexual abuse to health outcomes supported by at least three studies. Results indicated a moderate association of intimate partner violence with major depressive disorder and with maternal abortion and miscarriage (63% and 35% increased risk, respectively). HIV/AIDS, anxiety disorders and self-harm exhibited weak associations with intimate partner violence. Fifteen outcomes were evaluated for their relationship to childhood sexual abuse, which was shown to be moderately associated with alcohol use disorders and with self-harm (45% and 35% increased risk, respectively). Associations between childhood sexual abuse and 11 additional health outcomes, such as asthma and type 2 diabetes mellitus, were found to be weak. Although our understanding remains limited by data scarcity, these health impacts are larger in magnitude and more extensive than previously reported. Renewed efforts on violence prevention and evidence-based approaches that promote healing and ensure access to care are necessary.

Aims: Due to large inconsistencies in previous studies, it remains unclear how alcohol use is related to health care utilization.The aim of this study was to examine associations between alcohol drinking status with utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services in Germany. Methodology: Survey data of the GEDA 2014/2015-EHIS study with n = 23,561 German adults were analyzed (response rate: 27%). Respondents were categorized as lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, and non-weekly drinkers, as well as weekly low-risk drinkers and risky drinkers. Outpatient services included GP, specialist, and hospital visits; inpatient services included hospital overnight stays in the last 12 months. For both settings, binary logistic regression models were applied, adjusted for possible confounders. Results: For specialist visits, elevated odds were found among former drinkers (odds ratio (OR) = 1.93, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.50-2.49), non-weekly drinkers (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.05-1.47), weekly low-risk drinkers (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.17-1.67), and risky drinkers (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.04-1.57) compared to lifetime abstainers. In contrast, lower odds for inpatient service use were found among non-weekly drinkers (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.62-0.93), low-risk drinkers (OR = 0.66,95% CI = 0.53-0.81), and risky drinkers (OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.51-0.84). No differences were observed for GP and outpatient hospital visits. Conclusions: While the increased odds of consulting a specialist are consistent with higher health care needs among former and current drinkers, the lower use of inpatient care among current drinkers is contrary to known health risks associated with alcohol consumption and evidence from hospitalized populations. The findings also highlight the need to differentiate between lifetime abstainers and former drinkers in their use of health services.

Abstract: Aims: Due to large inconsistencies in previous studies, it remains unclear how alcohol use is related to health care utilization. The aim of this study was to examine associations between alcohol drinking status with utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services in Germany. Methodology: Survey data of the GEDA 2014/2015-EHIS study with n = 23,561 German adults were analyzed (response rate: 27 %). Respondents were categorized as lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, and non-weekly drinkers, as well as weekly low-risk drinkers and risky drinkers. Outpatient services included GP, specialist, and hospital visits; inpatient services included hospital overnight stays in the last 12 months. For both settings, binary logistic regression models were applied, adjusted for possible confounders. Results: For specialist visits, elevated odds were found among former drinkers (odds ratio (OR) = 1.93, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) = 1.50-2.49), non-weekly drinkers (OR = 1.24, 95 % CI = 1.05-1.47), weekly low-risk drinkers (OR = 1.39, 95 % CI = 1.17-1.67), and risky drinkers (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI = 1.04-1.57) compared to lifetime abstainers. In contrast, lower odds for inpatient service use were found among non-weekly drinkers (OR = 0.76, 95 % CI = 0.62-0.93), low-risk drinkers (OR = 0.66, 95 % CI = 0.53-0.81), and risky drinkers (OR = 0.65, 95 % CI = 0.51-0.84). No differences were observed for GP and outpatient hospital visits. Conclusions: While the increased odds of consulting a specialist are consistent with higher health care needs among former and current drinkers, the lower use of inpatient care among current drinkers is contrary to known health risks associated with alcohol consumption and evidence from hospitalized populations. The findings also highlight the need to differentiate between lifetime abstainers and former drinkers in their use of health services.

As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public.

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase of heavy alcohol use has been reported in several high-income countries. We examined changes in alcohol use during the pandemic among primary health care (PHC) patients in two middle income countries, Colombia and Mexico. Methods Data were collected during routine consultations in 34 PHC centres as part of a large-scale implementation study. Providers measured patients' alcohol consumption with the three item 'Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test' (AUDIT-C). Generalized linear mixed models were performed to examine changes in two dependent variables over time (pre -pandemic and during pandemic): 1) the AUDIT-C score and 2) the proportion of heavy drinking patients (8+ on AUDIT-C). Results Over a period of more than 600 days, data from N = 17 273 patients were collected. During the pandemic, the number of patients with their alcohol consumption measured decreased in Colombia and Mexico. Each month into the pandemic was associated with a 1.5% and 1.9% reduction in the mean AUDIT-C score in Colombia and Mexico, respectively. The proportion of heavy drinking patients declined during the pandemic in Colombia (pre-pandemic: 5.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8% to 6.0%; during the pandemic: 0.8%, 95% CI = 0.6% to 1.1%) but did not change in Mexico. Conclusions Average consumption levels declined and the prevalence of heavy drinking patterns did not increase. In addition to reduced opportunities for social drinking during the pandemic, changes in the population seeking PHC and restrictions in alcohol availability and affordability are likely drivers for lower levels of alcohol use by patients in this study.

INTRODUCTION:The COVID-19 pandemic may have led to an increase in the alcohol-specific mortality. Against this backdrop, the aim of this report is to explore alcohol-specific mortality trends in Germany of the years 2010 to 2020.METHOD:Alcohol-specific mortality data aggregated by sex, 5-year age groups and state were collected from the annual cause-of-death statistics and analysed descriptively by visual inspection.RESULTS:The overall alcohol-specific mortality rate (age-standardised) has mainly decreased between 2010 and 2020. However, increased alcohol-specific mortality rates for the year 2020 compared to 2019 were found for both, women (+4.8%) and men (+5.5%), particularly in age groups between 40 and 69 years. Changes in alcohol-specific mortality rates differed between federated states, with steeper increases in East Germany.DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS:Different mechanisms related to the increase in alcohol consumption, particularly among high-risk drinkers, and reduced resources in health care may have led to an increase in alcohol-specific mortality in Germany in 2020. Despite the recent decline in the alcohol-specific mortality in Germany, an increase in the death toll was observed in 2020.

BACKGROUND:Alcohol-attributable costs to society are captured by cost-of-illness studies, however estimates are often not comparable, e.g. due to the omission of relevant cost components. In this contribution we (1) summarize the societal costs attributable to alcohol use, and (2) estimate the total costs under the assumption that all cost components are considered.METHODS:A systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted for studies reporting costs from alcohol consumption for the years 2000 and later, using the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases. Cost estimates were converted into 2019 international dollars (Int$) per adult and into percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). For each study, weights were calculated to correct for the exclusion of cost indicators.RESULTS:Of 1708 studies identified, 29 were included, and the mean costs of alcohol use amounted to 817.6 Int$ per adult (95% confidence interval [CI] 601.8-1033.4), equivalent to 1.5% of the GDP (95% CI 1.2-1.7%). Adjusting for omission of cost components, the economic costs of alcohol consumption were estimated to amount to 1306 Int$ per adult (95% CI 873-1738), or 2.6% (95% CI 2.0-3.1%) of the GDP. About one-third of costs (38.8%) were incurred through direct costs, while the majority of costs were due to losses in productivity (61.2%).DISCUSSION:The identified cost studies were mainly conducted in high-income settings, with high heterogeneity in the employed methodology. Accounting for some methodological variations, our findings demonstrate that alcohol use continues to incur a high level of cost to many societies.REGISTRATION:PROSPERO #CRD42020139594.

Introduction Causal methods have been adopted and adapted across health disciplines, particularly for the analysis of single studies. However, the sample sizes necessary to best inform decision-making are often not attainable with single studies, making pooled individual-level data analysis invaluable for public health efforts. Researchers commonly implement causal methods prevailing in their home disciplines, and how these are selected, evaluated, implemented and reported may vary widely. To our knowledge, no article has yet evaluated trends in the implementation and reporting of causal methods in studies leveraging individual-level data pooled from several studies. We undertake this review to uncover patterns in the implementation and reporting of causal methods used across disciplines in research focused on health outcomes. We will investigate variations in methods to infer causality used across disciplines, time and geography and identify gaps in reporting of methods to inform the development of reporting standards and the conversation required to effect change. Methods and analysis We will search four databases (EBSCO, Embase, PubMed, Web of Science) using a search strategy developed with librarians from three universities (Heidelberg University, Harvard University, and University of California, San Francisco). The search strategy includes terms such as 'pool*', 'harmoniz*', 'cohort*', 'observational', variations on 'individual-level data'. Four reviewers will independently screen articles using Covidence and extract data from included articles. The extracted data will be analysed descriptively in tables and graphically to reveal the pattern in methods implementation and reporting. This protocol has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020143148). Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval was required as only publicly available data were used. The results will be submitted as a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal, disseminated in conferences if relevant, and published as part of doctoral dissertations in Global Health at the Heidelberg University Hospital.

Introduction This contribution gives an overview on estimating the economic impact of substance use (SU) and substance use disorders (SUDs) from a societal perspective. Areas covered In this Expert Review, we first discuss the scope of the economic costs of SU to society and the methods used to estimate them. In general, cost studies should not be limited to SUDs, but should also include costs related to the consequences of any type of SU to achieve a comprehensive picture of the societal burden. Further, estimating potentially avoidable costs will increase the value of cost studies. Importantly, methodologically sound cost studies shed light on the magnitude of societal problems related to SU and can be used as a reference point to evaluate regulatory policies and other preventive measures. The area of estimating potential economic benefits of SU is understudied and lacks a theoretical and methodological framework. Expert opinion Overall, economic studies on the impact of SU and SUDs can strongly contribute to better-informed decision-making in the creation of regulatory and control policies. The least developed area of research refers to a consensus methodology that could be used in studies which compare economic costs to potential economic benefits.