The time sequence corresponding between seismic precursor information and strong earthquakes activity or symmetry and stuffing phenomenon of field and sourse associating for earthquake frequency in world from Jan.2001 to Aug.2007 were disscussed by the view eyeshot.The result shows,the expectant aim can't be come true using preterit methods.The reason may be category of preterit whole view is smaller than world,it belong to territorial concept.

The article selects 11 significant and practical images at home and abroad with "symmetry and stuffing" method,and takes examples to explain according to different categories,and presents primary view on activity way of every group earthquake by stress field.

According to observation,there was some spatial and temporal precursory information in the seismic activity of M≥6.0 earthquakes at the both sides of the same latitude segment before Indonesia M8.9 earthquake,which occurred in Sumatra offing on Dec.26,2004,and the information can be tested through retrospection.Nevertheless,according to the records that recorded by Hongshan Seismostation,we can also get the prediction result of "active time interval".It is concluded that the seismic activity before strong earthquake,which is a kind "integer multidimensional activity",is basal information for earthquake prediction.

中国大陆强震活动相对活跃或平静期的划分, 对于地震预测预报, 特别是中短期的强震分析预报, 甚至短临预报工作具有十分重要的指导意义, 也是我国地震预测研究的一个不可缺少的环节.

Identifying the active and inactive period of earthquakes in Chinese mainland is of great importance for guiding mid-short term, especially short term, earthquake forecast.

故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小.由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处,因此,把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的.由于该模型与其他数学模型一样,需要有较多的学习过程,所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用.而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性,凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质,所以把它作为一种综合模型,能抑制各子模型的个性,突出在地震预测方面的共性,从而提高预测的精确性.本文根据一个实例,说明了这种综合性模型的可行性.在文章的最后,由信息量的分析,说明了模型的鲁棒性特征.

The focal mechanism data of 13 MS≥5.0 earthquakes in Jiashi strong earthquake sequence are analyzed, among which there are 8 strike slip earthquakes and 5 dip slip earthquakes.The NNW planes of strike slip earthquakes are consistent with the echelon direction of epicenter distribution for MS≥5.0 earthquakes.The Jiashi strong earthquake sequence may be the common act of NNW lateral-slip faults and the tensional normal faults oblique crossing with it.

The earthquake-lack curve from Jan.1,1980 to Dec.31,1999,frequency and continuous calm time of M 4 earthquake are analyzed,and its prediction ability for medium and strong earthquakes is studied.The results show that the successful rate of prediction to the three parameters is between 58% to 61%,false rate is in 28% to 33%,and RR 0.Thus the three parameters have good prediction effect.

在对河北省地震局地震数据管理与共享工作进行回顾与反思的基础上,对其系统研制的策略进行了初步探讨.对于系统的总体设计、开发研制的3个主要环节以及试点、示范,透明、开放的原则分别进行了论述.