Analyzing how climate change has affected forest growth is crucial for predicting future dynamics and adapting forest management to future climate change. In this paper, we investigate how climate change has modified stand dominant height dynamics and site index of 20 European tree species. We used an innovative method based on an annual height increment equation to model stand dominant height as a function of climate back to 1872 and of other stand environmental conditions. We used these models to simulate stand dominant height dynamics and site index under two different climates (prior to climate change and actual recent climate) to analyze the impact of climate change over the past century. To build our models, we combined the recently published FYRE long-term climate database, which provides daily data since 1871, with data from more than 17,000 forest stands of the French National Forest Inventory network. Higher temperature, precipitation and climatic water balance generally favor stand dominant height dynamics when the variables are considered separately. However, the positive effects often saturate at the higher end of the variable distribution. Over the past century, the effect of climate change on the site index has varied widely among species, ranging from a decrease of less than 3% to an increase of more than 5%. The effect of climate change has also varied within species, with more positive effects on initially temperature-limited stands for some species. For the species and environmental conditions considered, our results highlight a positive response of site index to past climate change for most species, albeit with between- and within-species differences. Our results also suggest that this positive response could become negative under continued climate change. These conclusions, as well as the quantitative relationships we provide between climate and stand dominant height dynamics or site index, will help design management strategies to adapt forests to climate change.
Fire indices are used to describe the weather conditions that influence fire ignition and fire behavior. Although many studies analyzed their performance on fire occurrence at daily resolution, few focused on their ability to capture the burned area, which is usually analyzed at the weekly or monthly scale. Cumulative Logarithmic Area Ranking Efficiency (CLARE) is a newly developed metric that takes burned area into account when assessing daily fire danger. The use of CLARE in addition to the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) in the selection process of fire indices or fire occurrence models provides a complementary metric that allows for the evaluation of a model's ability to assess burned area. We evaluated the CLARE performance in 11 regions ranging from the European Alps to the Mediterranean basin. We also assessed the impact of (i) different groups of input variables (meteorological variables vs. fire indices), (ii) model complexity in terms of number of variables, and (iii) the modeling approach (Generalized Linear Models vs. Maxent) on the performance of CLARE. We found that models that achieve a high AUC for predicting fire occurrence may fail to show a high performance when predicting burned area. Using a multi-variable modeling approach is likely to provide higher CLARE performance than using single-variable fire index models, especially among models that have high AUC. Moreover, using this approach led to better multi-variable meteorological model performance than singlevariable fire index models for some regions. This may be particularly valuable for regions where the calculation of fire indices is not possible. Finally, the differences between the modeling approaches were mainly related to the region or input variable groups. Overall, our results highlight that including burned area in the fire danger assessment process is feasible across a wide range of environmental conditions and provides valuable insights.
Previous attempts to quantify tree abundance at global scale have largely neglected the role of local competition in modulating the influence of climate and soils on tree density. Here, we evaluated whether mean tree size in the world's natural forests alters the effect of global productivity on tree density. In doing so, we gathered a vast set of forest inventories including >3000 sampling plots from 23 well-conserved areas worldwide to encompass (as much as possible) the main forest biomes on Earth. We evidence that latitudinal productivity patterns of tree density become evident as large trees become dominant. Global estimates of tree abundance should, therefore, consider dependencies of latitudinal sources of variability on local biotic influences to avoid underestimating the number of trees on Earth and to properly evaluate the functional and social consequences.
The choice of a natural risk prevention strategy must be considered at the scale of a territory in order to take into account all its components. Since 2015, France has developed integrated natural risk management (INRM) approaches in Alpine territories. The challenge of INRM lies in the definition and implementation of innovative projects for initiating synergies with respect to natural risks while seeking to increase resilience through the new and different involvement of the territorial actors. The Baronnies Provençales Regional Nature Park is one of the pilot territories for the operational implementation of this approach, with a particular focus on forest-based solutions. For this reason it has been chosen as the French Pilot Action Region (PAR) of the Interreg Alpine Space project GreenRisk4Alps. In this article we present an example of good practice related to the benefit of large-scale rockfall risk modeling, the analysis of potential cascading effects and the added value of a territorial perspective.
Algeria has high wildfire activity, albeit restricted to the northern coastal fringe. However, no study has investigated why fire is restricted to that area, and what combination of factors explains the occurrence of wildfires. Here, we describe the current fire regime of Northern Algeria from 2000 to 2019 and we correlate fire activity to a range of environmental and anthropic drivers. We found a strong north–south gradient in fire occurrence: it is maximal in the high-fueled (productive) oak forests of Northern Algeria with high annual rainfall amount, whereas it is fuel-limited in the South due to semi-arid conditions. We determined that fire is nearly absent where the bioclimate is subarid or arid, due to the steppic vegetation with summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values below 0.35. Therefore, fire occupies a narrow niche in space (the humid and subhumid areas with high productivity) and in time as most fires occur in summer after the high rainfalls from fall to spring that promote fuel growth. Humans also play a role as fire hotspots are concentrated in croplands and in built-up areas with high human density and infrastructures mixed with shrublands and forests. We discuss how the ongoing climate changes and the desertification progressing towards the North of Algeria may finally restrict forests to a narrow fringe providing less and less ecological services to the Algerian people.
More tree species can increase the carbon storage capacity of forests (here referred to as the more species hypothesis) through increased tree productivity and tree abundance resulting from complementarity, but they can also be the consequence of increased tree abundance through increased available energy (more individuals hypothesis). To test these two contrasting hypotheses, we analyse the most plausible pathways in the richness-abundance relationship and its stability along global climatic gradients. We show that positive effect of species richness on tree abundance only prevails in eight of the twenty-three forest regions considered in this study. In the other forest regions, any benefit from having more species is just as likely (9 regions) or even less likely (6 regions) than the effects of having more individuals. We demonstrate that diversity effects prevail in the most productive environments, and abundance effects become dominant towards the most limiting conditions. These findings can contribute to refining cost-effective mitigation strategies based on fostering carbon storage through increased tree diversity. Specifically, in less productive environments, mitigation measures should promote abundance of locally adapted and stress tolerant tree species instead of increasing species richness.
Forest fires are expected to be more frequent and more intense with climate change, including in temperate and mountain forest ecosystems. In the Alps, forest vulnerability to fire resulting from interactions between climate, fuel types, vegetation structure and tree resistance to fire is little understood. This paper aims at identifying trends in the vulnerability of Alpine forest ecosystems to fire at different scales (tree species, stand level and biogeographic level) and according to three different climatic conditions (cold season, average summer and extremely dry summer). To explore Alpine forest vulnerability to fire, we used surface fuel measurements, forest inventory and fire weather data to simulate fire behaviour and ultimately post-fire tree mortality across 4438 forest plots in the French Alps. The results showed that cold season fires (about 50% of the fires in the French Alps) have a limited impact except on low-elevation forests of the Southern Alps (mainly Oak, Scots pine). In average summer conditions, mixed and broadleaved forests of low elevations suffer the highest mortality rates (up to 75% in coppices). Finally, summer fires occurring in extremely dry conditions promote high mortality across all forest communities. Lowest mortality rates were observed in high forest stands composed of tree species presenting adaptation to surface fires (e.g. thick bark, high canopy) such as Larch forests of the internal Alps. This study provides insights on the vulnerability of the main tree species and forest ecosystems of the French Alps useful for the adaptation of forest management practices to climate changes.
Rockfall simulation models are now able to quantify the protective effect of forest with the integration of rock impacts on trees. Those models require spatially explicit forest characteristics which are costly to acquire in operational conditions. The present study compares rockfall simulation results obtained with different forest input data sources: field data with different levels of spatial detail and two methods based on airborne Lidar data. Three different forest stands are tested with several virtual terrain configurations. When rockfall energies are below 200 kJ, the forest protection effect is significant. For higher energies, it also exists but it is minor compared to the effects of topography and rock volume. For all forest input data sources, the estimated rockfall intensity is within −13 and 16 % of the reference value, whereas the frequency is generally overestimated. Both Lidar methods yield a satisfactory forest protection effect evaluation, but single tree detection tends to underestimate it. Improvements are possible regarding the spatial heterogeneity of stem density and the diameter distribution by tree species.
Cable yarding systems constitute an adapted solution for steep-slope harvesting in mountain forests. However, it requires many specific skills for both forest managers and operators. The objectives of this research were to: (1) develop a CableHelp model for the set-up of cable yarding systems where inputs are operational field data and outputs are load path and tensile forces, and (2) to validate it with field experiments. The results show a high accuracy between the data predicted by the model and field measurements. Furthermore, this work stresses the importance of taking into account both the mainline effect and the friction between skyline and intermediate supports to properly calculate the skyline tension and load path. The CableHelp model shows great adaptability and ensures highly accurate predictions for any position on the line profile and for different configurations: single-span or multiple-span profiles, uphill or downhill yarding and for different kinds of carriage. A direct application of this research is to optimize the set-up of cable lines in order to reduce equipment wear, as well as operating cost, while respecting operator safety.
Identifier et caractériser les conditions d’accès aux ressources forestières sont des points stratégiques pour assurer leur gestion durable et multifonctionnelle. Le modèle Sylvaccess présenté dans cet article permet de cartographier automatiquement l’accessibilité des forêts en fonction des principaux systèmes de débardage actuellement utilisés en France : le tracteur forestier (ou débusqueur), le porteur forestier et le débardage par câble. Le modèle s’appuie sur des sources d’information spatiale et des paramètres techniques propres à chaque système de débardage. Il offre aussi la possibilité d’intégrer des obstacles physiques ou environne- mentaux dans l’analyse. Les résultats du modèle sont utilisables pour de nombreuses applications forestières allant de l’aménagement et de la planification des opérations d’exploitation jusqu’à la comparaison et la sélection de projets de desserte.