The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of international tourism factors on environmental degradation in three dimensions: 1) energy consumption (EC), 2) the quantity of CO 2 emissions (CO 2 ), 3) deforestation (Forest) of the 14 Asia-Pacific countries. The international tourism factors consider the number of international tourist arrivals: TR. The model also includes economic factors such as real GDP and investment factors (FDI) to reduce the noise of these factors on the relationship. This relationship was estimated by the panel ARDL model with the pool mean group method in short and long-run relationships and was confirmed by the Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Test with panel data from 14 Asia-Pacific countries from 2000 to 2019. The results revealed that, in the long run, international tourism arrivals have a positive effect on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions but a negative effect on forest areas, which implies an increase in deforestation. The causality test implies the causality of international tourism arrivals to energy consumption and CO 2 emission. These results imply that there has been the ineffectiveness of green tourism policies in this region, especially in terms of energy consumption, CO 2 emission and deforestation. According to the results of the study, countries in the Asia-Pacific region should increase the renewable energy proportion in the energy generation process, improve technology to use less energy and promote eco-friendly tourism activities as a catalyst for forest conservation rather than destruction.
Sustainable development aims to balance current and future needs across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. This study explores the relationships among tourist numbers (Tr), sustainability (SDG), and globalization, divided into economic (GOE), social (GOS), and political (GOC) dimensions, with COVID-19 (CO) included as a short-term factor. Using annual panel data from ASEAN countries (2001–2022), panel unit root, cointegration, and autoregressive distributed lag (Panel ARDL) models were applied to analyses short- and long-term relationships. The findings reveal that sustainability (SDG) and the political globalization dimension (GOC) significantly influence tourist numbers (Tr) in the long term. COVID-19 (CO) affected tourism in the short term. The results underscore the positive impact of sustainable development on tourism and its integration with globalization’s economic and social dimensions. ASEAN countries should prioritize sustainable tourism policies and strengthen international political cooperation to enhance tourism’s long-term benefits.
This research aims to assess the impact of traffic jams and weather problems on tourism in Bangkok. Thailand by employing monthly data from July 2018 to December 2023. The tourism factor is represented by the number of international guest tourists at accom modation establishments in Bangkok. The traffic problems are expressed in the highest and lowest quantities, and the weather factors are represented by the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, and the quantity of rainfall factors for Bangkok in the analysis. This study employs the Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) method for the estimation. The long -run results reveal that the highest level of traffic is in the opposite direction to the tourism factor and is in the same direction as the lowest level of traffic while the highest temperature is in the same direction as the tourism factor and has a positive relationship with the lowest temperature. However, there is no relationship between rainfall and the tourism factor. Therefore, the government should resolve traffic problems in Bangkok by improving the flow of traffic throughout. JEL Codes: L83, R41, Q54 Keywords: Tourism, Bangkok, Traffic jams, Weather.
Electrical energy is one of the most important elements in human daily life. However, the amount of electricity production is limited. Therefore, the efficient use of electricity is one of the issues that needs to be considered, especially the loss of electricity from the distribution of energy to consumers. This study aims to compare the impact of electricity consumption and economic growth on electricity loss in the energy distribution process between countries located on the continent and islands of ASEAN member countries, which are 9 countries with the exception of Myanmar. This study employs data from 1990 to 2022 with Panel Autoregressive Distribution Lag (Panel ARDL). The results of the study show that in the long term, electricity consumption is a factor that triggers energy loss, both in continental and island countries. In addition, economic growth can only help to reduce energy loss by considering the overall picture and the island countries. In the Continental countries, electric power distribution systems should be developed continuously. While island countries, which may employ policies to stimulate the economy so that the public and private sectors generate enough income to develop an energy distribution system to better reduce losses from distribution.
Este estudio investiga los efectos de los factores monetarios y económicos internacionales en el crecimiento económico y la estabilidad de Laos utilizando datos de series temporales trimestrales desde el primer trimestre de 2017 hasta el tercer trimestre de 2023. A la estimación del modelo se le aplicó un modelo de retardo de distribución autorregresivo automático (ARDL). Este estudio también reveló el problema y el mecanismo de transmisión de la recuperación económica de Laos. A partir de los resultados empíricos, se puede afirmar una relación negativa entre el IPC y el PIB. Además, se puede confirmar que la oferta monetaria, los tipos de interés bancarios y los tipos de cambio tienen un impacto positivo en el IPC y el PIB. Sin embargo, la relación entre el valor de las exportaciones de bienes y el PIB es negativa. Además, se puede concluir que todas las variables independientes tienen efectos más variados sobre el PIB que sobre el IPC. Por lo tanto, el gobierno puede adaptar los resultados empíricos como herramientas y directrices para la implementación efectiva y eficiente de la política monetaria y económica internacional para mejorar la recuperación económica y acelerar el desarrollo y el crecimiento económico sostenibles. En la actualidad, el problema económico crítico de Laos que debe resolverse es el rápido aumento de la inflación. Por lo tanto, la alta tasa de inflación debe reducirse para evitar el riesgo a largo plazo de hiperinflación.
The objective of this study was to consider the impacts of climate change on tourism along the Mekong River in Thailand. The factors to be considered included temperature and rainfall on the number of Thai and international tourists. Panel data were used, i.e., cross-sectional data from eight provinces of Thailand located along the Mekong River, from January 2013 to December 2023. The results revealed that, over the long-term, only higher temperatures affected the number of Thai tourists. In the short run, average temperatures and rainfall showed the opposite relationship with regard to the number of Thai tourists. The results identified climate change as a cause of the smaller number of Thai tourists in those provinces, mainly as a resul t of higher average temperatures. Therefore, higher temperatures could be considered a major obstacle for tourism activities.
This study investigates the effects of monetary and international economic factors on the economic growth and stability of Laos by using quarterly time series data from Q1 2017 to Q3 2023. An auto auto-regressive distribution lag (ARDL) model was applied to the model estimation. This study also revealed the problem and transmission mechanism of Laos' economic recovery. Based on empirical results, a negative relationship between CPI and GDP can be affirmed. Furthermore, it can be confirmed that money supply, bank interest rates, and exchange rates have a positive impact on CPI and GDP. However, the relationship between goods export value and GDP is negative. Moreover, it can be concluded that all independent variables have more varied effects on GDP than on CPI. Thus, the government can adapt the empirical results as tools and guidelines for effective and efficient monetary and international economic policy implementation to enhance economic recovery and accelerate sustainable economic development and growth. Currently, the critical economic problem of Laos that needs to solve be solved is rapidly increasing inflation. Therefore, the high inflation rate must be reduced to avoid the long-term risk of hyperinflation.
This study aims to investigate the mediating effect of economic factors including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the energy factor represented by Energy Consumption (EC) on tourism, for which the International Tourism Receipts (ITR) and the carbon emissions (CO2) relationships of ASEAN Countries are proxies by employing panel data of ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2019. The results will be analyzed using the panel ARDL method. The study revealed that there was a relationship between the mediating effect of GDP and EC. However, there only EC partially mediated the impact of TP on CO2. Moreover, there was a long run relationship between TP and GDP, FDI and EC and the impact of TP GDP, FDI and EC on CO2 in the positive direction. To reduce the impact of tourism on CO2 emissions, governments in ASEAN countries may need to design policies that adopt the guidelines of Muslim countries.
Amidst the trend of globalization, which has been disrupted by various global situations such as trade wars, the pandemic, and the effects of war, concerns about deglobalization have arisen, particularly among countries vulnerable to food and energy insecurity. The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of deglobalization on the food and energy insecurity of Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries. Food insecurity was determined by the percentage of malnourished people within a country, while energy insecurity was determined by the percentage of dependence on oil energy imports. Such influences were found to be transmitted through price factors and each country’s level of participation in globalization. A simultaneous equation was analyzed to determine the correlations. The findings of the study were as follows: 1) Deglobalization will increase food insecurity in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand as they become less involved in globalization, but will decrease it as the effects of deglobalization are transmitted to the price factors for China, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand. 2) When the influence of deglobalization is transmitted through the price factors, it could increase China’s energy insecurity but reduce energy insecurity for Vietnam. Additionally, the impact of deglobalization has increased the energy insecurity of Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, as their involvement in globalization is linked to such influences.
This study was conducted to consider the relationship between the transportation export value (TR) and energy consumption of Thailand (EN) in the long run by a comparative analysis that relied on testing by the ARDL and NARDL models. The Granger causality of each item was also tested by quarterly time series data from Quarter 1 of 2011-Quarter 4 of 2021. The results revealed a long relationship from the EN to TR. However, only the reduction of the TR affected the EN. According to the results, the energy agencies of Thailand should maintain the balance of EN and sufficient energy imports to drive the TR for its stability.
This study investigates the impact of the Lao macroeconomic factors of real gross domestic product, the Openness Index, and the exchange rate between the Thai and Lao currencies on the Lao import value of agricultural processed products from Thailand. Using product classifications and data from the International Trade Centre, this research examined the total import value (IM) and value of the imported product categories of sugar (HS17), flour (HS19), miscellaneous edible preparations (HS21), beverages (HS22), and animal fodder (HS23) (as dependent variables). The analysis employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, and the Vector Error Correction Model was applied to analyze the level relationship and test causal relationships among variables by using quarterly time series data from Q1 2012 to Q3 2021. Results show long-run and short-run relationships between GDP and both IM and HS17, but only a long-run relationship with HS22 and a short-run effect on HS19. Following the effects of COVID-19, HS22 will be the fastest market to recover. GDP has the greatest effect on IM in the long run. Granger causality of real GDP was seen running to imports on IM, HS17, and HS19; Openness running to IM and HS19; and exchange rate running to HS17, HS19, HS21, and HS22, with only HS23 unaffected by any factor.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic sectors and investment and has particularly affected the stock pricing factors for the transport sector (TRANS). This study compares the relationship of the different factors, i.e., the volume, exchange rate (EXR), consumer price index (CPI), and the oil price on the stock prices of the TRANS on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between the pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19 periods. Time series data between January 2017 and December 2019 were used for the pre-COVID-19 period, and data between January 2020 and September 2022 were used for the during COVID-19 period. The effects of the independent variables were considered by estimating the long-run relationship using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Granger causality from those variables to each stock price. The results found that the COVID-19 pandemic caused different effects on the volume, EX, CPI, and the oil price on the stock prices of the transport sector in the SET. Thus, investors should closely monitor the situations caused by natural disasters and the change of the EXR and oil price to reduce any problems that may arise.
This study aims to explore the factors influence the competitiveness of Thailand’s processed pineapple exports as well as the impact size of these factors by focusing on canned pineapple (HS 200820) and pineapple juice (HS 200949). This study also determine the competitiveness and market share effects for both products in each market in each Thailand major partner countries. The average price of processed pineapple, GDP per capita and exchange rate were the explanatory variables. The panel data from 2013 to 2017 of 10 partners were used in a panel regression model with pooled OLS, fixed effect and random effect models. The empirical results show that the fixed effect model is the most suitable and that price significantly negatively affected the market share of both products. Moreover, there is a positive effect from GDP per capita on market share for pineapple and the exchange rate positively affected market share for canned pineapple. In addition, Thailand’s pineapple juice market share is less price sensitive than the canned pineapple market. The stable and competitive price are necessary conditions to enhance sustainable export competitiveness under current intense competition. The implementation of effective exchange rate management to prevent massive fluctuation is a crucial supporting mechanism to achieve this target. Moreover, the appropriate devaluation is other essential policy to enhance sustainable price competition under the tension competitive environment leads to accelerate the continue market shares in important markets.
The three objectives of this research were to identify the influence of the factors affecting the demand for tobacco products, including domestic cigarettes (DC), imported cigarettes (IC), and hand-rolled cigarettes (HRC), and the elasticity of the demand of the three groups of consumers in the adolescent, working age, and elderly age groups; estimate the consumer surplus of each type of cigarette for each age group; and estimate the relationship in the demand model and cigarette price model with a simultaneous equation model (SEM) system by using the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method with time series data from 1989 to 2019. The research results illustrated that the demand factors had different impacts on the number of consumers of each type of cigarette in each age range. The elasticity of demand suggests that domestic cigarettes are luxury goods for adolescents but are normal goods for elderly consumers. In contrast, import cigarettes are luxury goods for working age people and hand-rolled cigarettes are normal goods for elderly consumers. Moreover, domestic cigarettes are a substitution for imported cigarettes for working age consumers and hand-rolled cigarettes customers, while imported cigarettes are a substitution for adolescent domestic cigarette customers, and hand-rolled cigarettes are also a substitution for adolescent domestic cigarette and adolescent imported cigarette customers. Price is the most sensitive factor for working age imported cigarette customers, while elderly hand-rolled cigarette customers comprise the largest customer base for Thailand’s tobacco products. According to the results, the relevant agencies should be very careful in implementing measures to raise tobacco prices.
This study aims to estimate the factors influence competitiveness of Thailand's processed pineapple export.The processed pineapple consists of canned pineapple (HS200820) and pineapple juice (HS200949).The competitiveness of both products is defined as the market share in each major partners.These factors contain with processed pineapple price in average from partners, GDP per capita and exchange rate.The data used was panel data from 2013 to 2017 of 10 partners.The empirical result shows that there is significantly negative effect of price on the market share of both products.Moreover, there is positively effect from GDP per capitaon the pineapple market share and positively effect from exchange rate on canned pineapple market share.In addition, Thailand pineapple juice market share is less price sensitive than the canned pineapple market.The stable price and competitive price is necessary condition contribute to accelerate sustainable export competitiveness in the intense competition era.The effective exchange rate management implementation is crucial supporting mechanism to achieve this target.
This study aims to investigate the effect of market share and total RMS imports by Thailand’s RMS partner importers by employing simultaneous equations with panel data. The data consist of 10 Thailand rubber smoked sheet (RMS) partner countries between 2008 and 2017 and are estimated by using the three stage least square technique. It was found that market share has more effect on the RMS partner imports from Thailand than the partner’s market expansion while the exchange rate had a strong negative effect on market share in the partner country. As a consequence, policymakers should prioritize the formulation of suitable and effective international fiscal policy and its implementation to better allocate the benefits from trade.
This study aims to (1) know the influence factor on demand and supply cigarette market of Thailand (2) estimate the economic welfare that affecting from the cigarette excise tax rate and (3) evaluate the worthiness of cigarette tax policy which compare with the cost related to the treatment of smoking patients. This research used the time series data from 1984 to 2016 included 33 years. The influence factors on demand and supply are analyzed by using simultaneous equation, estimated by three stage least square (3SLS) method and economic welfare computation. Then, it calculates economic welfare and the cost related to the treatment of smoking patients. The results are found that that cigarette price has a negative relation on cigarette demand while the consumer price index has positive relation on demand. On the other hand, the prices have a positive relation on cigarette supply while the selling cost and exchange rate have a negative relation on supply. Moreover, cigarette tax and Gross Domestic Product have a positive relation on the cigarette price. The simulation forecasting results are shown that the rising of cigarette tax rate increases the tax revenue; however it decreases economic welfare that has an effect on producer’s surplus more than consumer’s surplus. From the results, the tax policy is still worth on the economic welfare.
This study examines the relationship between Laos’s GDP, Thailand’s direct investment to Laos and Laos’s export to Thailand by using 44 quarters of data from 2005 Q1 to 2015 Q4. All relationships were studied using the vector error correction model (VECM). The results presented long run relationship from Laos’ GDP and Laos’ export to Thailand as well as from Thailand’s direct investment to Laos’s GDP and Laos’s export to Thailand. In the short run, there was only unidirectional relationship from Laos’s GDP to Laos’s exports to Thailand. This study indicates that Laos’s exporters receive benefits from Thailand’s direct investment contribution to accelerate economic growth in the short term. Therefore, Laos’s government should distribute income from the exporters to other economy sectors or spread the types of export goods into a larger range.
Telecommunications remains a major infrastructure problem in Thailand where international tourist numbers are gradually increasing. This paper examines the causal relationship between the number of international tourist arrivals and telecommunication investment in Thailand. Using annual data from 1983-2013, the results confirm that the number of international tourist arrivals and telecommunication investment are cointegrated and stable. The causality analysis reveals that there is bi-directional causality between the two variables in the long-run. This study suggests policymakers should upgrade the telecommunication service provided in the country and recognizing the investment in the telecommunications industry, they should focus on international tourism promotion by directly communicating efficiently to enhance and maintain the target group for international tourist arrivals. Additionally, Thailand's government should find a policy to induce investors for investment in telecommunications which supports tourism supply development. This will lead to augmenting the tourism market in Thailand.