A compound AI system consists of multiple LLM modules, together handling complex and multi-step tasks that exceed the capabilities of a single model. Existing systems often use a single expensive LLM across all modules to improve the result quality of the whole system. However, this configuration incurs prohibitive costs, particularly for data management and analytics tasks at scale, such as data manipulation. To this end, we formalize the problem of constrained LLM selection for compound AI systems, leveraging the diverse pricing and capabilities of different LLMs to achieve competitive quality at lower cost. Given a query dataset and a user-specified quality threshold, we aim to select an LLM for each module to minimize the system's average cost while ensuring that overall quality meets the required threshold. To solve this problem, we propose SCOPE, a cost-efficient optimization algorithm. Unlike existing approaches that rely on expensive dataset-level evaluations, SCOPE exploits per-query results to rapidly estimate the system's cost and quality, and constructs confidence bounds to guide the search for promising LLM combinations. Furthermore, SCOPE provides theoretical guarantees for meeting the quality threshold and achieving near-optimal average cost. We evaluate SCOPE against 7 baselines on three data processing tasks, demonstrating that it outperforms all baselines. Under the same search budget and quality constraint, it finds solutions with up to 20× lower cost than the best competitor during the search and achieves up to 6× lower final cost in the returned solution.

Recent years have witnessed increasing interests in tackling heteroscedastic noise in bandits and reinforcement learning \citep{zhou2021nearly, zhao2023variance, jia2024does, pacchiano2025second}. In these works, the cumulative variance of the noise $\Lambda = \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2$, where $\sigma_t^2$ is the variance of the noise at round $t$, has been used to characterize the statistical complexity of the problem, yielding simple regret bounds of order $\tilde{\mathcal O}(d \sqrt{\Lambda / T^2})$ for linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise \citep{zhou2021nearly, zhao2023variance}. However, with a closer look, $\Lambda$ remains the same order even if the noise is close to zero at half of the rounds, which indicates that the $\Lambda$-dependence is not optimal. In this paper, we revisit the linear bandit problem with heteroscedastic noise. We consider the setting where the action set is fixed throughout the learning process. We propose a novel variance-adaptive algorithm VAEE (Variance-Aware Exploration with Elimination) for large action set, which actively explores actions that maximizes the information gain among a candidate set of actions that are not eliminated. With the active-exploration strategy, we show that VAEE achieves a *simple regret* with a nearly *harmonic-mean* dependent rate, i.e. $\tilde{\mathcal O}\Big(d\Big[\sum_{t = 1}^T \frac{1}{\sigma_t^2} - \sum_{i = 1}^{\tilde{O}(d)} \frac{1}{[\sigma^{(i)}]^2} \Big]^{-\frac{1}{2}}\Big)$ where $d$ is the dimension of the feature space and $\sigma^{(i)}$ is the $i$-th smallest variance among $\\{\sigma_t\\}_{t=1}^T$. For finitely many actions, we propose a variance-aware variant of G-optimal design based exploration, which achieves a $\tilde {\mathcal O}$ $\bigg(\sqrt{d \log |\mathcal A| }\Big[ \sum\_{t = 1}\^T \frac{1}{\sigma\_t\^2}- \sum\_{i = 1}^{\tilde{O}(d)} \frac{1}{[\sigma^{(i)}]^2} \Big]^{-\frac{1}{2}}\bigg)$ simple regret bound. We also establish a nearly matching lower bound for the fixed action set setting indicating that \emph{harmonic-mean} dependent rate is unavoidable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that breaks the $\sqrt{\Lambda}$ barrier for linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise.

We investigate the problem of batched best arm identification in multi-armed bandits, where we want to find the best arm from a set of $n$ arms while minimizing both the number of samples and batches. We introduce an algorithm that achieves near-optimal sample complexity and features an instance-sensitive batch complexity, which breaks the $\log(1/\Delta_2)$ barrier. The main contribution of our algorithm is a novel sample allocation scheme that effectively balances exploration and exploitation for batch sizes. Experimental results indicate that our approach is more batch-efficient across various setups. We also extend this framework to the problem of batched best arm identification in linear bandits and achieve similar improvements.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive performance across diverse domains but often suffer from overconfidence, limiting their reliability in critical applications. We propose SteerConf, a novel framework that systematically steers LLMs' confidence scores to improve their calibration and reliability. SteerConf introduces three key components: (1) a steering prompt strategy that guides LLMs to produce confidence scores in specified directions (e.g., conservative or optimistic) by leveraging prompts with varying steering levels; (2) a steered confidence consistency measure that quantifies alignment across multiple steered confidences to enhance calibration; and (3) a steered confidence calibration method that aggregates confidence scores using consistency measures and applies linear quantization for answer selection. SteerConf operates without additional training or fine-tuning, making it broadly applicable to existing LLMs. Experiments on seven benchmarks spanning professional knowledge, common sense, ethics, and reasoning tasks, using advanced LLM models (GPT-3.5, LLaMA 3, GPT-4), demonstrate that SteerConf significantly outperforms existing methods, often by a significant margin. Our findings highlight the potential of steering the confidence of LLMs to enhance their reliability for safer deployment in real-world applications.

We introduce a novel extension of the canonical multi-armed bandit problem that incorporates an additional strategic element: abstention. In this enhanced framework, the agent is not only tasked with selecting an arm at each time step, but also has the option to abstain from accepting the stochastic instantaneous reward before observing it. When opting for abstention, the agent either suffers a fixed regret or gains a guaranteed reward. Given this added layer of complexity, we ask whether we can develop efficient algorithms that are both asymptotically and minimax optimal. We answer this question affirmatively by designing and analyzing algorithms whose regrets meet their corresponding information-theoretic lower bounds. Our results offer valuable quantitative insights into the benefits of the abstention option, laying the groundwork for further exploration in other online decision-making problems with such an option. Numerical results further corroborate our theoretical findings.

We study the multi-agent multi-armed bandit (MAMAB) problem, where $m$ agents are factored into $\rho$ overlapping groups. Each group represents a hyperedge, forming a hypergraph over the agents. At each round of interaction, the learner pulls a joint arm (composed of individual arms for each agent) and receives a reward according to the hypergraph structure. Specifically, we assume there is a local reward for each hyperedge, and the reward of the joint arm is the sum of these local rewards. Previous work introduced the multi-agent Thompson sampling (MATS) algorithm \citep{verstraeten2020multiagent} and derived a Bayesian regret bound. However, it remains an open problem how to derive a frequentist regret bound for Thompson sampling in this multi-agent setting. To address these issues, we propose an efficient variant of MATS, the $\epsilon$-exploring Multi-Agent Thompson Sampling ($\epsilon$-MATS) algorithm, which performs MATS exploration with probability $\epsilon$ while adopts a greedy policy otherwise. We prove that $\epsilon$-MATS achieves a worst-case frequentist regret bound that is sublinear in both the time horizon and the local arm size. We also derive a lower bound for this setting, which implies our frequentist regret upper bound is optimal up to constant and logarithm terms, when the hypergraph is sufficiently sparse. Thorough experiments on standard MAMAB problems demonstrate the superior performance and the improved computational efficiency of $\epsilon$-MATS compared with existing algorithms in the same setting.

We introduce the E$^4$ algorithm for the batched linear bandit problem, incorporating an Explore-Estimate-Eliminate-Exploit framework. With a proper choice of exploration rate, we prove E$^4$ achieves the finite-time minimax optimal regret with only $O(\log\log T)$ batches, and the asymptotically optimal regret with only $3$ batches as $T\rightarrow\infty$, where $T$ is the time horizon. We further prove a lower bound on the batch complexity of liner contextual bandits showing that any asymptotically optimal algorithm must require at least $3$ batches in expectation as $T\rightarrow \infty$, which indicates E$^4$ achieves the asymptotic optimality in regret and batch complexity simultaneously. To the best of our knowledge, E$^4$ is the first algorithm for linear bandits that simultaneously achieves the minimax and asymptotic optimality in regret with the corresponding optimal batch complexities. In addition, we show that with another choice of exploration rate E$^4$ achieves an instance-dependent regret bound requiring at most $O(\log T)$ batches, and maintains the minimax optimality and asymptotic optimality. We conduct thorough experiments to evaluate our algorithm on randomly generated instances and the challenging *End of Optimism* instances (Lattimore & Szepesvari, 2017) which were shown to be hard to learn for optimism based algorithms. Empirical results show that E$^4$ consistently outperforms baseline algorithms with respect to regret minimization, batch complexity, and computational efficiency.

We study stochastic linear bandits where, in each round, the learner receives a set of actions (i.e., feature vectors), from which it chooses an element and obtains a stochastic reward. The expected reward is a fixed but unknown linear function of the chosen action. We study \emph{sparse} regret bounds, that depend on the number $S$ of non-zero coefficients in the linear reward function. Previous works focused on the case where $S$ is known, or the action sets satisfy additional assumptions. In this work, we obtain the first sparse regret bounds that hold when $S$ is unknown and the action sets are adversarially generated. Our techniques combine online to confidence set conversions with a novel randomized model selection approach over a hierarchy of nested confidence sets. When $S$ is known, our analysis recovers state-of-the-art bounds for adversarial action sets. We also show that a variant of our approach, using Exp3 to dynamically select the confidence sets, can be used to improve the empirical performance of stochastic linear bandits while enjoying a regret bound with optimal dependence on the time horizon.

Motivated by real-world applications that necessitate responsible experimentation, we introduce the problem of best arm identification (BAI) with minimal regret. This variant of the multi-armed bandit problem elegantly amalgamates two of its most ubiquitous objectives: regret minimization and BAI. More precisely, the agent's goal is to identify the best arm with a prescribed confidence level δ, while minimizing the cumulative regret up to the stopping time. Focusing on single-parameter exponential families of distributions, we leverage information-theoretic techniques to establish an instance-dependent lower bound on the expected cumulative regret. Moreover, we present an impossibility result that underscores the tension between cumulative regret and sample complexity in fixed-confidence BAI. Complementarily, we design and analyze the Double KL-UCB algorithm, which achieves asymptotic optimality as the confidence level tends to zero. Notably, this algorithm employs two distinct confidence bounds to guide arm selection in a randomized manner. Our findings elucidate a fresh perspective on the inherent connections between regret minimization and BAI.

We study the batched best arm identification (BBAI) problem, where the learner's goal is to identify the best arm while switching the policy as less as possible. In particular, we aim to find the best arm with probability $1-\delta$ for some small constant $\delta>0$ while minimizing both the sample complexity (total number of arm pulls) and the batch complexity (total number of batches). We propose the three-batch best arm identification (Tri-BBAI) algorithm, which is the first batched algorithm that achieves the optimal sample complexity in the asymptotic setting (i.e., $\delta\rightarrow 0$) and runs in $3$ batches in expectation. Based on Tri-BBAI, we further propose the almost optimal batched best arm identification (Opt-BBAI) algorithm, which is the first algorithm that achieves the near-optimal sample and batch complexity in the non-asymptotic setting (i.e., $1/\delta$ is finite), while enjoying the same batch and sample complexity as Tri-BBAI when $\delta$ tends to zero. Moreover, in the non-asymptotic setting, the complexity of previous batch algorithms is usually conditioned on the event that the best arm is returned (with a probability of at least $1-\delta$), which is potentially unbounded in cases where a sub-optimal arm is returned. In contrast, the complexity of Opt-BBAI does not rely on such an event. This is achieved through a novel procedure that we design for checking whether the best arm is eliminated, which is of independent interest.

We propose $\epsilon$-Exploring Thompson Sampling ($\epsilon$-TS), a modified version of the Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm for multi-armed bandits. In $\epsilon$-TS, arms are selected greedily based on empirical mean rewards with probability $1-\epsilon$, and based on posterior samples obtained from TS with probability $\epsilon$. Here, $\epsilon\in(0,1)$ is a user-defined constant. By reducing exploration, $\epsilon$-TS improves computational efficiency compared to TS while achieving better regret bounds. We establish that $\epsilon$-TS is both minimax optimal and asymptotically optimal for various popular reward distributions, including Gaussian, Bernoulli, Poisson, and Gamma. A key technical advancement in our analysis is the relaxation of the requirement for a stringent anti-concentration bound of the posterior distribution, which was necessary in recent analyses that achieved similar bounds. As a result, $\epsilon$-TS maintains the posterior update structure of TS while minimizing alterations, such as clipping the sampling distribution or solving the inverse of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between reward distributions, as done in previous work. Furthermore, our algorithm is as easy to implement as TS, but operates significantly faster due to reduced exploration. Empirical evaluations confirm the efficiency and optimality of $\epsilon$-TS.

We study the regret of Thompson sampling (TS) algorithms for exponential family bandits, where the reward distribution is from a one-dimensional exponential family, which covers many common reward distributions including Bernoulli, Gaussian, Gamma, Exponential, etc. We propose a Thompson sampling algorithm, termed ExpTS, which uses a novel sampling distribution to avoid the under-estimation of the optimal arm. We provide a tight regret analysis for ExpTS, which simultaneously yields both the finite-time regret bound as well as the asymptotic regret bound. In particular, for a $K$-armed bandit with exponential family rewards, ExpTS over a horizon $T$ is sub-UCB (a strong criterion for the finite-time regret that is problem-dependent), minimax optimal up to a factor $\sqrt{\log K}$, and asymptotically optimal, for exponential family rewards. Moreover, we propose ExpTS$^+$, by adding a greedy exploitation step in addition to the sampling distribution used in ExpTS, to avoid the over-estimation of sub-optimal arms. ExpTS$^+$ is an anytime bandit algorithm and achieves the minimax optimality and asymptotic optimality simultaneously for exponential family reward distributions. Our proof techniques are general and conceptually simple and can be easily applied to analyze standard Thompson sampling with specific reward distributions.

Thompson sampling is one of the most widely used algorithms for many online decision problems, due to its simplicity in implementation and superior empirical performance over other state-of-the-art methods. Despite its popularity and empirical success, it has remained an open problem whether Thompson sampling can match the minimax lower bound $\Omega(\sqrt{KT})$ for $K$-armed bandit problems, where $T$ is the total time horizon. In this paper, we solve this long open problem by proposing a variant of Thompson sampling called MOTS that adaptively clips the sampling instance of the chosen arm at each time step. We prove that this simple variant of Thompson sampling achieves the minimax optimal regret bound $O(\sqrt{KT})$ for finite time horizon $T$, as well as the asymptotic optimal regret bound for Gaussian rewards when $T$ approaches infinity. To our knowledge, MOTS is the first Thompson sampling type algorithm that achieves the minimax optimality for multi-armed bandit problems.

In batched multi-armed bandit problems, the learner can adaptively pull arms and adjust strategy in batches. In many real applications, not only the regret but also the batch complexity need to be optimized Existing batched bandit algorithms usually assume that the time horizon T is known in advance. However, many applications involve an unpredictable stopping time. In this paper, we study the anytime batched multiarmed bandit problem. We propose an anytime algorithm that achieves the asymptotically optimal regret for exponential families of reward distributions with O(log log T . ilog(alpha)(T))(1) batches, where alpha is an element of O-T(1). Moreover, we prove that for any constant c > 0, no algorithm can achieve the asymptotically optimal regret within c log log T batches.

This paper studies two variants of the best arm identification (BAI) problem under the streaming model, where we have a stream of n arms with reward distributions supported on [0, 1] with unknown means. The arms in the stream are arriving one by one, and the algorithm cannot access an arm unless it is stored in a limited size memory. We first study the streaming epsilon-top-k arms identification problem, which asks for k arms whose reward means are lower than that of the k-th best arm by at most epsilon with probability at least 1 - delta. For general epsilon is an element of (0, 1), the existing solution for this problem assumes k = 1 and achieves the optimal sample complexity O(n/epsilon(2) log 1/delta) using O(log* (n))(1) memory and a single pass of the stream. We propose an algorithm that works for any k and achieves the optimal sample complexity O(n/epsilon(2) log k/delta) using a single-arm memory and a single pass of the stream. Second, we study the streaming BAI problem, where the objective is to identify the arm with the maximum reward mean with at least 1 - delta probability, using a single-arm memory and as few passes of the input stream as possible. We present a single-arm-memory algorithm that achieves a near instance-dependent optimal sample complexity within O(log Delta(-1)(2)) passes, where Delta(2) is the gap between the mean of the best arm and that of the second best arm.

We study the multi-armed bandit problem with subgaussian rewards. The explore-then-commit (ETC) strategy, which consists of an exploration phase followed by an exploitation phase, is one of the most widely used algorithms in a variety of online decision applications. Nevertheless, it has been shown in Garivier et al. (2016) that ETC is suboptimal in the asymptotic sense as the horizon grows, and thus, is worse than fully sequential strategies such as Upper Confidence Bound (UCB). In this paper, we show that a variant of ETC algorithm can actually achieve the asymptotic optimality for multi-armed bandit problems as UCB-type algorithms do and extend it to the batched bandit setting. Specifically, we propose a double explore-then-commit (DETC) algorithm that has two exploration and exploitation phases and prove that DETC achieves the asymptotically optimal regret bound. To our knowledge, DETC is the first non-fully-sequential algorithm that achieves such asymptotic optimality. In addition, we extend DETC to batched bandit problems, where (i) the exploration process is split into a small number of batches and (ii) the round complexity is of central interest. We prove that a batched version of DETC can achieve the asymptotic optimality with only a constant round complexity. This is the first batched bandit algorithm that can attain the optimal asymptotic regret bound and optimal round complexity simultaneously.

Given a set V , the problem of unconstrained submodular maximization with modular costs (USM-MC) asks for a subset S ⊆ V that maximizes f ( S ) - c ( S ), where f is a non-negative, monotone, and submodular function that gauges the utility of S , and c is a non-negative and modular function that measures the cost of S. This problem finds applications in numerous practical scenarios, such as profit maximization in viral marketing on social media. This paper presents ROI-Greedy, a polynomial time algorithm for USM-MC that returns a solution S satisfying [EQUATION], where S * is the optimal solution to USM-MC. To our knowledge, ROI-Greedy is the first algorithm that provides such a strong approximation guarantee. In addition, we show that this worst-case guarantee is tight , in the sense that no polynomial time algorithm can ensure [EQUATION], for any ϵ > 0. Further, we devise a non-trivial extension of ROI-Greedy to solve the profit maximization problem, where the precise value of f ( S ) for any set S is unknown and can only be approximated via sampling. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that ROI-Greedy significantly outperforms competing methods in terms of the tradeoff between efficiency and solution quality.