Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future.

Morphology is integral to body temperature regulation. Recent advances in understanding of thermal physiology suggest a role of the avian bill in thermoregulation. To explore the adaptive significance of bill size for thermoregulation we characterized relationships between bill size and climate extremes. Most previous studies focused on climate means, ignoring frequencies of extremes, and do not reflect thermoregulatory costs experienced over shorter time scales. Using 79 species (9847 museum specimens), we explore how bill size variation is associated with temperature extremes in a large and diverse radiation of Australasian birds, Meliphagides, testing a series of predictions. Overall, across the continent, bill size variation was associated with both climate extremes and means and was most strongly associated with winter temperatures; associations at the level of climate zones differed from continent-wide associations and were complex, yet consistent with physiology and a thermoregulatory role for avian bills. Responses to high summer temperatures were nonlinear suggesting they may be difficult to detect in large-scale continental analyses using previous methodologies. We provide strong evidence that climate extremes have contributed to the evolution of bill morphology in relation to thermoregulation and show the importance of including extremes to understand fine-scale trait variation across space.

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

The Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America is the official record of business of the Ecological Society of America, publishing non-refereed articles that cover ecological events, news and reports.

Phenological adjustment is the first line of adaptive response of vertebrates when seasonality is disrupted by climate change. The prevailing response is to reproduce earlier in warmer springs, but habitat changes, such as forest degradation, are expected to affect phenological plasticity, for example, due to loss of reliability of environmental cues used by organisms to time reproduction. Relying on a two-decade, country-level capture-based monitoring of common songbirds' reproduction, we investigated how habitat anthropization, here characterized by the rural-urban and forest-farmland gradients, affected the average phenology and plasticity to local temperature in two common species, the great tit Parus major and the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus. We built a hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated fledging phenology and its response to spring temperatures based on the changes in the proportion of juveniles captured over the breeding season. Both species fledge earlier in warmer sites (blue tit: 2.94 days/degrees C, great tit: 3.83 days/degrees C), in warmer springs (blue tit: 2.49 days/degrees C, great tit: 2.75 days/degrees C) and in most urbanized habitats (4 days for blue tit and 2 days for great tit). The slope of the reaction norm of fledging phenology to spring temperature varied across sites in both species, but this variation was explained by habitat anthropization only in the deciduous forest specialist, the blue tit. In this species, the responses to spring temperature were shallower in agricultural landscapes and slightly steeper in more urban areas. Habitat anthropization did not explain variation in the slope of the reaction norm in the habitat-generalist species (great tit), for which mean fledgling phenology and plasticity were correlated (i.e., steeper response in later sites). The effects of habitat change on phenological reaction norms provide another way through which combined environmental degradations may threaten populations' persistence, to an extent depending on species and on the changes in their prey phenology and abundance. In this study, we developed a method that enables the estimation of phenological reactions to local temperatures using Constant Effort Site bird ringing data. Our findings suggest that habitat anthropization explains variation in phenological plasticity but only for the most specialist species (blue tit).image

Individual behavior varies for many reasons, but how early in life are such differences apparent, and are they under selection? We investigated variation in early-life behavior in a wild eastern gray kangaroo (Macropus giganteus) population, and quantified associations of behavior with early survival. Behavior of young was measured while still in the pouch and as subadults, and survival to weaning was monitored. We found consistent variation between offspring of different mothers in levels of activity at the pouch stage, in flight initiation distance (FID) as subadults, and in subadult survival, indicating similarity between siblings. There was no evidence of covariance between the measures of behavior at the pouch young versus subadult stages, nor of covariance of the early-life behavioral traits with subadult survival. However, there was a strong covariance between FIDs of mothers and those of their offspring tested at different times. Further, of the total repeatability of subadult FID (51.5%), more than half could be attributed to differences between offspring of different mothers. Our results indicate that 1) behavioral variation is apparent at a very early stage of development (still in the pouch in the case of this marsupial); 2) between-mother differences can explain much of the repeatability (or "personality") of juvenile behavior; and 3) mothers and offspring exhibit similar behavioral responses to stimuli. However, 4) we found no evidence of selection via covariance between early-life or maternal behavioral traits and juvenile survival in this wild marsupial.

Vegetation structure influences landscape use and habitat quality for many bird species. Owing to the difficulties associated with collecting structural data from traditional field measurements, numerous studies have investigated the utility of Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) for providing landscape-scale structural information that may be useful for exploring animal-habitat associations. Notably, almost all of these studies have involved the use of LiDAR from airborne rather than terrestrial platforms. However, vegetation metrics that might be important for explaining bird species occurrence and diversity, such as understory vegetation complexity and overall vegetation volume, may be partially obscured from airborne sensors by tree canopy cover. These challenges might be overcome by terrestrial and UAV LiDAR sensors that can provide detailed information of understory forest strata. For the first time, we collected terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) and unoccupied aerial vehicle LiDAR (ULS) data in a woodland landscape to compare the ability of both sensors to identify relationships among vegetation structural metrics and bird species richness and abundance. Overall, TLS and ULS models provided similar results based on the sampling methodology we used for LiDAR data collection in an open woodland landscape. Canopy roughness, ground vegetation vertical complexity, total vegetation volume and canopy height derived from these sensors were among the most common significant variables in explaining avian diversity and individual species abundance. Individual species abundance models provided better prediction power (up to R2 = 0.82 (TLS) and R2 = 0.83 (ULS)) than bird community abundance by functional guilds (up to R2 = 0.40 (TLS), R2 = 0.41 (ULS)) and overall bird abundance (R2 = 0.10 (TLS), R2 = 0.16 (ULS)), species richness (R2 = 0.14 (TLS), R2 = 0.14 (ULS)) and diversity (R2 = 0.17 (TLS), R2 = 0.16 (ULS)). Additionally, we found that several vulnerable bird species are strongly associated with LiDAR structural variables, which may assist with habitat assessment and conservation management.

1+1Phenological adjustment is the first line of adaptive response of vertebrates when ancestral seasonality is disrupted by climate change. The prevailing response is to reproduce earlier in warmer springs, but habitat changes, such as conversion of ancestral (pre-human) habitats into cities and agricultural lands, are expected to affect phenological plasticity, for example due to loss of reliability of environmental cues used by organisms to time reproduction. Relying on two-decade, country level capture-based monitoring of common songbirds’ reproduction, we investigated how the conversion of forest habitat into agricultural lands, and into artificialized surfaces affected the deviation of average phenology and plasticity to local temperature from its presumed ancestral state, i.e., in non-urbanized forests. For this, we built a hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated fledging phenology and its response to spring temperatures based on the changes in the proportion of juveniles captured over the breeding season. Both species fledge earlier in warmer sites (blue tit: 2.94 days/°C, great tit: 3.83 days/°C), in warmer springs (blue tit: 2.49 days/°C, great tit: 2.75 days/°C) and in most urbanized habitats (4 days for blue tit and 2 days for great tit). The reaction norm of fledging phenology to spring temperature varied across sites in both species, but this variation was explained by ancestral habitat only in the deciduous forest specialist, the blue tit. In this species, the responses to spring temperature were shallower in agricultural landscapes. The ancestral reaction norm is preserved in the habitat-generalist species (great tit), as well as along the urbanization gradient and was correlated to mean fledgling phenology (i.e., steeper response in later sites). The effects of habitat change on ancestral adaptive reaction norms provide another way through which combined environmental degradations may threaten populations persistence, to an extent depending on species and changes in their prey phenology and abundance.

BACKGROUND:The shape of the semicircular canals of the inner ear of living squamate reptiles has been used to infer phylogenetic relationships, body size, and life habits. Often these inferences are made without controlling for the effects of the other ones. Here we examine the semicircular canals of 94 species of extant limbed lepidosaurs using three-dimensional landmark-based geometric morphometrics, and analyze them in phylogenetic context to evaluate the relative contributions of life habit, size, and phylogeny on canal shape.RESULTS:Life habit is not a strong predictor of semicircular canal shape across this broad sample. Instead, phylogeny plays a major role in predicting shape, with strong phylogenetic signal in shape as well as size. Allometry has a limited role in canal shape, but inner ear size and body mass are strongly correlated.CONCLUSIONS:Our wide sampling across limbed squamates suggests that semicircular canal shape and size are predominantly a factor of phylogenetic relatedness. Given the small proportion of variance in semicircular canal shape explained by life habit, it is unlikely that unknown life habit could be deduced from semicircular canal shape alone. Overall, semicircular canal size is a good estimator of body length and even better for body mass in limbed squamates. Semiaquatic taxa tend to be larger and heavier than non-aquatic taxa, but once body size and phylogeny are accounted for, they are hard to distinguish from their non-aquatic relatives based on bony labyrinth shape and morphology.

Aim Organisms in arid and semi-arid regions are frequently exposed to climatic extremes and accordingly among the most vulnerable to climate change. Studies of seasonal differences in vital rates, which mediate effects of climate on viability, are rare in arid species, limiting ability to project population trends. We quantified survival patterns for two bird communities as a function of exposure to temperature extremes in winter and summer, then projected survival patterns to 2104. Location Semi-arid eastern Australia. Time period 1986-2016; 1986-2104. Major taxa studied Birds. Methods Using mark-recapture time-dependent Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and data for 37 species from two >30-year ringing programmes, we tested for effects on 6-monthly survival of exposure to temperatures >38 and <0 degrees C. We then predicted future survival for different emission scenarios, testing whether changes in survival associated with warming winters would be sufficient to offset the effects of rising summer temperatures. Results Survival probability declined strongly with increasing exposure to days >38 degrees C and to a lesser extent to days <0 degrees C, with temperature extremes explaining 43 and 13% of temporal variation in survival among years, respectively. Summer survival patterns were similar across avian guilds but only survival of nectarivores declined in winter. Our models predict that gains in winter survival will not offset reductions in summer survival. Annual survival is predicted to decline substantially by the end of the century: from .63 in 1986 to .43 in 2104 under an optimistic emission scenario and to .11 under a pessimistic scenario. Main conclusions We highlight the significance of temperature extremes for species' persistence in arid and semi-arid regions, comprising 70% of Australia's landmass, and 40% globally. Our demography-based results are consistent with physiological-based projections evaluating avian survival in arid and semi-arid regions globally and suggest rising summer temperatures pose a risk to population persistence in these regions.

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Mistletoes are hemiparasitic plants and keystone species in many ecosystems globally. Given predicted increases in drought frequency and intensity, mistletoes may be crucial for moderating drought impacts on community structure. Dependent on host vascular flows, mistletoes can succumb to stress when water availability falls, making them susceptible to mortality during drought. We counted mistletoe across greater than 350 000 km2 of southeastern Australia and conducted standardized bird surveys between 2016 and 2021, spanning a major drought event in 2018–2019. We aimed to identify predictors of mistletoe abundance and mortality and determine whether mistletoes might moderate drought impacts on woodland birds. Live mistletoe abundance varied with tree species composition, land use and presence of mistletoebirds. Mistletoe mortality was widespread, consistent with high 2018/2019 summer temperatures, low 2019/2020 summer rainfall and the interaction between summer temperatures and rainfall in 2019/2020. The positive association between surviving mistletoes and woodland birds was greatest in the peak drought breeding seasons of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, particularly for small residents and insectivores. Paradoxically, mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves vulnerable to drought-induced mortality. An improved understanding of the drivers and dynamics of mistletoe mortality is needed to address potential cascading trophic impacts associated with mistletoe die-off.

Why do senescence rates of fitness-related traits often vary dramatically? By considering the full aging trajectories of multiple traits, we can better understand how a species’ life history shapes the evolution of senescence within a population. Here, we examined age-related changes in sex-specific survival, reproduction, and several components of reproduction using a long-term study of a cooperatively breeding songbird, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). We compared aging patterns between traits by estimating standardized rates of maturation, age of onset of senescence, and rates of senescence while controlling for confounding factors reflecting individual variability in life history. We found striking differences in aging and senescence patterns between survival and reproduction as well as between reproductive traits. In both sexes, survival started to decline from maturity onward. In contrast, all reproductive traits showed improvements into early adulthood, and many showed little or no evidence of senescence. In females, despite senescence in clutch size, number of offspring surviving to independence did not decline in late life, possibly due to improvements in maternal care with age. Superb fairy-wrens have exceptionally high levels of extragroup paternity, and while male within-group reproductive success did not change with age, extragroup reproductive success showed a dramatic increase in early ages, followed by a senescent decline, suggesting that male reproductive aging is driven by sexual selection. We discuss how the superb fairy-wrens’ complex life history may contribute to the disparate aging patterns across different traits.

Phenotypic trait data play a central role in ecology and evolutionary research. The quality of trait data, and the findings of subsequent analyses, depend on the quality of measurement. However, most studies overlook measurement accuracy in their study designs. We investigated the repeatability of five frequently used linear measurements of avian traits: wing length, tarsus length, bill length, bill depth and bill width and the validity of proxies for three traits: bill surface area, structural body size and tarsus size, using species from the infra-order Meliphagides (honeyeaters, fairy wrens and their allies). Repeatability varied between traits and across species for a given trait: traits larger than 13 mm showed high repeatability compared with smaller traits. By incorporating microCT technology, we showed that the formula for the surface area of a cone, a widely used proxy of bill surface area, accurately describes bill surface area within species. Surface measurement of tarsus and wing lengths were valid proxies for underlying osteology. We recommend preliminary estimation of repeatability should be undertaken for individual traits prior to data collection, in order to design suitable protocols that improve data quality, while optimizing costs involved, particularly for traits < 13 mm.

Many studies ask whether young or older males are better at acquiring mates. Even so, how age affects reproductive success is still poorly understood because male age and mating history are confounded in most studies: older males usually have more mating experience. To what extent does mating history rather than age explain variation in male mating success? And how do mating history and male age determine paternity when there is also postcopulatory sexual selection? Here, we experimentally manipulated the mating history of old and young males in the eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). We then recorded male mating behavior and share of paternity (1259 offspring from 232 potential sires) when they competed for mates and fertilizations. Old males, and males with no mating experience, spent significantly more time approaching females, and attempting to mate, than did young males and those with greater mating experience. Male age and mating history interacted to affect paternity: old males benefited from having previous mating experience, but young males did not. Our results highlight that the age-related changes in male reproductive traits and in paternity that have been described in many taxa may be partly attributable to male mating history and not simply to age itself.

Age-related changes in parental phenotypes or genotypes can impact offspring fitness, but separating germline from nongermline transgenerational effects of ageing is difficult for wild populations. Further, in cooperatively breeding species, in addition to parental ages, the age of 'helpers' attending offspring may also affect juvenile performance. Using a 30-year study of a cooperative breeder with very high rates of extra-pair paternity, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus), we investigated the effects of maternal, paternal and helper ages on three measures of offspring performance: nestling weight, juvenile survival to independence and recruitment to the breeding population. Mothers with a longer lifespan had offspring with higher juvenile survival, indicating selective disappearance, but the effect of maternal age on juvenile survival was of similar magnitude but negative. For extra-pair offspring, there was no evidence of any effect of the ages of either the genetic sire or the cuckolded 'social' father. However, for within-pair offspring, there was a positive effect of paternal age on juvenile survival, which we suggest may be driven by sexual selection. There were positive associations between the average age of helpers attending a nest and two of the three aspects of offspring performance; these effects were stronger than any of the effects of parental age. In general, the multiple associations between offspring fitness and the ages of adults around them appeared to be driven more by age-related changes in environmental effects than by age-related changes in the germline.

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a potentially important axis of physiological adaptation to the thermal environment. However, our understanding of the causes and consequences of individual variation in RMR in the wild is hampered by a lack of data, as well as analytical challenges. RMR measurements in the wild are generally characterized by large measurement errors and a strong dependency on mass. The latter is problematic when assessing the ability of RMR to evolve independently of mass. Mixed models provide a powerful and flexible tool to tackle these challenges, but they have rarely been used to estimate repeatability of mass-independent RMR from field data. We used respirometry to obtain repeated measurements of RMR in a long-term study population of snow voles (Chionomys nivalis) inhabiting an environment subject to large circadian and seasonal fluctuations in temperature. Using both uni- and bivariate mixed models, we quantify individual repeatability in RMR and decompose repeatability into mass-dependent and mass-independent components, while accounting for measurement error. RMR varies among individuals, that is, is repeatable (R = .46) and strongly co-varies with BM. Indeed, much of the repeatability of RMR is attributable to individual variation in BM, and the repeatability of mass-independent RMR is reduced by 41% to R = .27. These empirical results suggest that the evolutionary potential of RMR independent of mass may be severely constrained. This study illustrates how to leverage bivariate mixed models to model field data for metabolic traits, correct for measurement error and decompose the relative importance of mass-dependent and mass-independent physiological variation.