打破刚性兑付信仰、降低债券违约风险对于促进债券市场高质量发展具有深远意义.本文基于公司内外部治理视角,考察社保基金持股对公司债券发行定价的影响及内在作用机理.研究发现,社保基金持股比例与公司债券发行定价呈负相关关系,进一步研究表明,当公司管理层权力较大、投资者保护质量较低、公司声誉较差或市场化程度较低时,社保基金持股对债券发行定价的影响更强.影响路径检验发现,内部控制质量是社保基金持股降低债券发行定价的重要影响渠道.本文拓展了社保基金持股的经济效应研究,补充了公司债券发行定价影响因素,为有效发挥社保基金治理作用、降低公司债券违约风险提供经验与启示,以期更好地维护保护投资者环境,服务债券市场平稳发展.
气候变化具有不可逆转性,正使人类社会面临前所未有的风险.气候风险作为一类不确定性风险,必然会对保险需求产生影响.本文基于《中国气象灾害年鉴》统计的气象灾害主要经济损失数据,实证检验了2005～2020年气候风险对中国31个省级行政区域保险需求的影响,以及不同异质性因素对上述影响的调节效应.结果发现:首先,气候风险的上升会增加当地的保险需求,且气候风险对人身保险需求的影响大于对财产保险需求的影响;其次,在不同经济增速下,气候风险对保险需求的促进作用存在显著差异,经济增速较低时保险需求对气候风险上升的反应更显著;继而,地区教育水平的差异显著影响了气候风险与保险需求的正相关性,教育水平越高的地区气候风险增加对保险需求的促进作用更显著;最后,气候风险对不同类型人身保险需求的影响存在差异,健康险需求受气候风险的影响最大,其次是意外伤害险和人寿险.因此,政府部门应高度重视日益加剧的气候变化及气候风险的影响,加强气候保险产品创新及体系建设,提升公众避险意识,积极改善保险结构失衡现状,以减少气候变化和气候风险对经济社会造成的负面影响.
在城市化浪潮下,住房价格阶段性大幅上涨成为影响我国经济金融稳定的重要因素.政府主要采取限购住房等需求管理政策来稳定住房市场,而供给因素在房价稳定中的作用未得到充分考虑.本文试图从地方政府的土地财政行为视角出发,分析住房限购政策如何影响土地供给来探讨住房需求管理政策的效果.本文通过构建地方政府融资行为的动态均衡模型分析发现:住房限购政策会降低土地的供给;当限购政策取消时,由于需求释放而供给不足,会引起房价大幅度的反弹;地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度会影响上述效应大小.同时,本文基于城市面板数据的实证分析支持了以上结论.
本文利用2008～2021年银行间7天同业拆借加权平均利率日度数据测算出我国货币政策不确定性程度,并考察其对于企业投资效率的影响.研究发现,货币政策不确定性会显著降低企业的投资效率,这一结果在替换相关变量、考虑模型内生性、宏观经济波动以及其他政策冲击等因素影响后依然稳健.机制分析发现,期限错配加剧、信贷可得性下降以及贷款成本上升是上述影响的作用渠道.基于手工整理与文本分析的方法,本文构建了央行沟通频率与预期管理强度两个指标,发现两者均能有效缓解货币政策不确定性对于企业投资效率的负向冲击.同时,"双支柱"调控框架下,无论是数量型货币政策还是价格型货币政策,与宏观审慎政策搭配使用时均能提升企业投资效率.进一步分析发现,货币政策不确定性对于投资不足、市场地位较低、信息不对称程度较高以及民营企业的影响更大.本文的研究对于我国货币当局"精准施策"、夯实"六稳"工作具有一定的政策启示,同时也为我国实施"双支柱"调控的有效性与科学性提供了一定的经验证据.
本文通过整合商业银行的年度财务报告和爱企查平台公布的银行投资村镇银行的信息,手工匹配并整理出2011～2021年国内商业银行发起设立村镇银行的数量等微观信息,结合商业银行的年度财务面板数据,探究商业银行发起设立村镇银行对其自身风险承担水平的影响、作用机制和异质性.研究发现:(1)商业银行发起设立村镇银行显著提升了其自身的风险承担水平;(2)发起行会通过代理成本和业务多元化水平影响其自身的风险承担水平,代理成本和业务多元化水平越高,商业银行发起设立村镇银行影响其自身风险承担水平的驱动效应越明显;(3)对于具有绝对控股权的、资产规模较大的商业银行、城商行以及位于东部地区的商业银行而言,其发起设立村镇银行对其自身的风险承担水平具有更明显的驱动效应.本文从发起设立村镇银行的新视角拓展了商业银行风险承担水平研究,为进一步完善国内商业银行的风险监管提供了理论参考.
The relationship between digital finance and income inequality is a crucial topic that deserves a deeperexamination. This study aims to explore the impact of digital finance on income inequality through a multi-dimensionalapproach, by analyzing both domestic and international perspectives, macro and micro levels, and direct and indirecteffects. The study starts by verifying the relationship between digital finance and income inequality at the macro level,considering both domestic and international perspectives. Results suggest that digital finance reduces income inequalitywithin a country, however, there is a potential U-shaped relationship, where innovation plays a crucial role. The study alsofinds that digital finance widens income inequality between countries, with a more pronounced trend among high-incomecountries. The study then shifts to the micro level, using data from Chinese listed companies to test the impact of digitalfinance on income inequality. Results indicate that digital finance exacerbates income inequality among high-incomegroups. This view is supported by evidence from both macro and micro perspectives. This study provides new insights intothe relationship between digital finance and income inequality and highlights the importance of innovation in reducingincome gaps through digital finance development. The findings of this study offer a theoretical reference for policymakersseeking to achieve common prosperity through the development of digital finance.
The systemic risk taken on by the banking system is one of the main concerns of the market regarding structural monetary policy. This article examines the impact of structural monetary policy on the systemic risk taken on by the banking system using monthly data from 16 listed commercial banks in China from 2015 to 2020. The study finds that the structural monetary policy primarily based on the MLF（ Medium-term Lending Facility） has not led to excessive systemic risk taken on by the banks in China, but instead has significantly suppressed systemic risk, indicating that the current prudent structural monetary policy in China is appropriate. However, the SLF（Standing Lending Facility） and PSL（Policy-based Support Loan） do not have this effect. Considering the endogeneity issue, the article uses the LPR（Loan Prime Rate） reform as a quasi-natural experiment to verify the robustness of the conclusion, and it remains significant even after controlling for other policy and shock influences. Finally, the study analyzes the channels through which structural monetary policy works from the perspectives of market operating environment, regulatory pressure, and risk management.This is the first time that the impact of structural monetary policy on systemic risk in the banking system has been analyzed,which helps to address market concerns and questions about structural monetary policy and provides reference for further improvement of structural monetary policy.
This article presents a research that focuses on the relationship between cross-border financing, leverage fluctuation, and macro-prudential adjustment. The COVID-19 pandemic and the normalization of global monetary policy,along with China’s stable economic environment, have attracted continuous cross-border capital inflows. The study uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of cross-border capital inflows on the leverage ratio of the real sector（ households, real estate firms, and local government）, and its transmission mechanisms. The results suggest that cross-border capital inflows can increase mortgage borrowing and bond issuing capacity in the real sector by boosting land and housing prices, and in turn raise the macro leverage ratio, leading to passive deleveraging. Additionally,changes in asset allocation by households with borrowing constraints can drive up stock market prices. The study argues that a combination of macro-prudential policy measures, such as loan-to-value ratio rules and countercyclical reserve requirement ratio for local currency and foreign exchange deposits, along with cross-border financing adjustment, can reduce the impact of cross-border capital inflows on domestic currency appreciation and leverage fluctuations, restrain excessive borrowing by the real sector, and promote financial stability and the steady growth of the real economy. The article concludes that a dynamic adjustment of counter-cyclical capital adequacy ratio and reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits can achieve better welfare outcomes.
In this study, we explore the impact of mandatory corporate social responsibility（ CSR） information disclosure on green innovation at the firm level. Using a quasi-natural experiment design based on China’s 2008 CSR mandate policy and a PSM-DID method, our results demonstrate that firms required to disclose CSR information have a higher number of green innovation patents compared to non-reporting firms. Additionally, this impact is significantly stronger for firms under high environmental monitoring pressure, firms with a high percentage of institutional investor ownership, and firms with active media presence. Our findings provide empirical evidence that information disclosure can drive green innovation and contribute to the understanding of the impact of institutional environments on corporate behavior.From a policy perspective, our results are crucial as they highlight the substantial and pronounced impact of information policy on firms’ green innovation and suggest that China should improve its information disclosure policy.
The marginal product of capital（ MPK） is a crucial factor that affects the performance of the macro-economy and key financial variables such as the real interest rate and capital price. A well-established fact in cross-countrycomparisons is that lower capital per capita is associated with higher MPK. However, since 2010, China’s MPK has rapidlydeclined to a level below that of advanced countries, despite its lower capital per capita. The primary cause of this declineis a serious population issue-a rapid decrease in the labor force growth rate and even negative growth since 2016. Using asingle-sector production function, this paper computes MPKs for 79 to 91 countries from 1982 to 2019. A cross-countrypanel data analysis reveals that the decline in labor force growth rate has a significantly negative impact on MPK. To furtherunderstand the evolution of MPK in China, this paper develops a two-sector growth model that takes into account themovement of labor force from agriculture to the non-agriculture sector. The results of the two-sector model confirm theimpact of population issues on MPK, although the single-sector model overestimates the decline of MPK in China. The goodnews for China is that during the transition of labor force from the agriculture sector to the non-agriculture sector, MPK maynot decline as rapidly in the future. However, the growth model based on factor input must be changed, and the labor forcegrowth rate must be stabilized, to ensure a stable MPK.
2008年国际金融危机以来，由于量化宽松导致市场流动性全面过剩，以及市场风险偏好下降和国际监管改革引发银行流动性囤积，主要央行的利率调控模式都由利率走廊转向更加强化存款便利利率作用的地板体系。在全面梳理危机前流动性相对过剩条件下挪威、新西兰地板体系政策经验及2008年国际金融危机后货币市场结构性变化的基础上，本文对地板体系的运行机理、各国的具体安排及其利弊进行了深入分析。利率调控的地板体系仍属于货币操作范畴，应服从于货币决策的需要。随着货币政策正常化的加快推进，中央银行应加强市场流动性监测和评估，根据实际情况决定是否回归稀缺准备金的利率走廊模式；同时，大力改进货币操作框架的技术性安排，更好适应危机以来金融环境的新变化，这对健全中国利率操作框架并顺利实现货币价格调控模式转型，具有非常重要的启示性意义。
在互联网时代,风起云涌的中国新经济企业催生了通过制度创新突破融资约束瓶颈的中概股,进而在全球资本市场发展史上形成了十分独特的"中概股"现象.然而,2020年初瑞幸咖啡财务造假丑闻曝光引发的中概股信任危机,以及在中美竞争背景下以《外国公司问责法》出台为代表的美国对中概股监管政策的收紧加剧了中概股企业在美上市发展的不确定性,使中概股发展陷入前所未有的困境.本文在客观评价"中概股"历史贡献的基础上,讨论中美证券监管当局围绕审计底稿监管合作协议的签署与实施的主要分歧,进而提出中概股防范和化解退市危机的可能应对之策.本文认为,在美上市的中概股可以基于企业属性和实际情况进行"分类应对".美股占比有限且多地交叉上市的国资背景中概股,可以选择从美国市场主动退市.对于民资背景的中概股,一方面可以积极寻求中国香港、新加坡,甚至中国A股进行多地交叉上市,以缓解美国单一市场的上市风险;另一方面,则可以通过变更选择符合美国监管要求的审计机构寻求在美国继续上市.
党的十八大以来,特别是第五次全国金融工作会议之后,我国金融学术研究呈现出空前的繁荣局面.本文以货币政策转型与创新、系统性风险防范与金融监管、金融供给侧改革与银行体系发展、多层次资本市场建设、普惠金融与绿色金融、金融科技、金融市场进一步对外开放等我国新时代的七个重要金融发展主题为线索,梳理了相关文献,并展望了金融领域未来的研究方向.
基础交易制度对于资本市场良好运行有着深远影响.本文创新地将期权思想引入股市涨跌幅限制的分析中,以组合期权价格度量了涨跌幅限制造成的价格偏离.涨跌幅限制约束了价格变化的幅度,价格偏离无法消除,形成了价格发现延迟.基于2010～2020年的股票日度交易数据,本文验证了价格发现延迟现象,发现封板时间越早、限制幅度越小时,价格发现延迟越严重.进一步的分析显示,牛市和连续涨停情形下,股票价格发现延迟现象更加明显.本文的研究结论为研究涨跌幅限制提供了新的思路,另一方面也为完善涨跌幅限制制度提供了启发.
伴随中国金融市场不断开放,全球金融环境的变化逐渐影响中国实体经济波动.美国货币政策作为全球金融周期的重要驱动因素,如何通过金融市场影响中国实体经济运行需要科学衡量.理论上,受金融市场摩擦影响,美国货币政策冲击通过信贷渠道和跨国金融中介的风险承担渠道,能够改变国内企业融资成本.实证上,本文基于高频数据构建外部工具变量识别美国货币政策冲击,并将中国企业相对于美国无风险利率的融资溢价拆解为主权风险溢价、期限风险溢价以及信用违约风险溢价三个部分,从而测度冲击对中国企业融资溢价以及实体经济的动态响应路径.从因果效应看,美国紧缩性货币政策冲击显著提高中国企业融资成本;从数量关系看,中国企业长期融资利率上升幅度是短期融资利率的两倍;从持续程度看,政策冲击对短期融资利率的影响维持约5个月,对长期融资利率的影响维持约25个月.本文为监测并防范美国货币政策变动影响中国企业融资成本与实体经济波动提供了新视角和科学依据.
本文首先在理论层面建立起支付平台"运行模式转型→全要素生产率变动→绩效表现"的逻辑链条,然后利用广义合成控制法实证考察美国运通支付平台引入四方模式对其交易量和加成率的异质性影响.研究结果显示,支付平台引入四方模式导致交易量显著上升但加成率显著下降,"鱼与熊掌不可兼得"的结果说明引入四方模式对平台绩效产生了结构分化效应.进一步分析发现,支付平台引入四方模式经由全要素生产率渠道"趋吉避凶"地作用于绩效表现.全要素生产率及其分解项的提高,显著地增强了支付平台"四方化转型"产生的交易量扩容效应,部分地抵消了支付平台"四方化转型"产生的加成率收窄效应,使得支付平台引入四方模式后对其加成率的负面影响不至于太强.本文的研究结论对支付平台运行模式设计和支付产业生态圈建设具有启发意义.
混合型组织在中国广泛存在、影响巨大且颇具特色,但就其合理性存在着"剥离负担论"和"购买服务论"两种不同的竞争性解释.对此,本文基于农信社和农行三农金融事业部这两类混合型组织的纵向比较案例分析,提出了混合优势论:对于不同结构的混合型组织,可以通过优化信贷决策权配置和提升组织激励来不断试错与纠错,实现双重目标兼顾.其次,本文建立了"信贷决策权—组织激励"的分析框架,并系统性地诠释了信贷配给、使命漂移、信用评级和有效配置四种信贷配置结果的生成机理.最后,本文通过案例复制法则验证了农信社和农行三农金融事业部这两类混合型组织,如何能在完成支农支小目标的同时,实现商业可持续发展的混合优势假说.本文对完善农村金融机构治理、推动金融支持乡村振兴提供了政策启示.
以2007～2020年中国A股上市公司为样本,本文研究了控股股东股权质押对年报语调操纵的影响.研究发现,控股股东股权质押会促使企业进行向上的年报语调操纵,且这一关系在股票市场的走势趋于熊市、年报公告前股票平均回报较低及非国有企业中更强.在控股股东存在股权质押的状态下,年报语调操纵可以在短时间内提升股价,但会提高股价同步性.本文的研究结论表明,控制权转移风险促使控股股东为了防止股价下跌发布带有乐观语调的年报,最终损害了资本市场的定价效率,这对监管机构在预防控股股东股权质押情景下的投机行为及提高投资者决策水平具有重要启示.
"流动性"是金融领域中的一个基本概念,但学术界长期对此缺乏共识.马克思认为,货币流通推动了商品流通.凯恩斯提出了流动性概念,但缺乏清晰界定,存在着一系列缺陷.金融市场流动性的研讨,立足于卖方,忽视了买方的意向,将金融资产的变现性与流动性相混;实体企业的融资流动性,立足于资金需求者,忽视了资金供给者的要求.不论是金融市场中卖方持有的金融产品还是实体企业为融资发行的金融产品都是异质的,以此界定流动性,不免使得流动性的内涵杂乱无序.从学理上说,如果一个概念有着太多的内涵,它的科学性和适用性就将严重降低.从理论与实践的一致性角度看,应以货币资产(即资金)界定流动性的内涵,由此,在金融市场中的交易、实体企业的融资中,流动性都是由买方提供的.
本文基于行为金融的研究视角和框架,创造性地将心理学中的恐惧管理理论引入代理问题的讨论之中,认为专业的企业管理者也无法避免对死亡的恐惧和焦虑,可能会加剧第一类代理问题.本文以我国A股上市公司为研究样本,利用高管同事离世事件作为外生冲击,借助双重差分模型检验死亡提醒对CEO薪酬自利行为的影响.研究发现,在经历同事离世事件后,CEO的货币薪酬与超额薪酬显著增加,即死亡提醒可能增加CEO对物质的追求,引发代理问题.这种现象在年轻和权力较大的CEO样本中更加明显,且死亡提醒的作用具有一定持续性.本文的结论揭示了同事离世等突发事件冲击可能会影响高管心理状态,从而产生对公司决策和治理行为的影响,从行为金融的视角丰富了公司治理的相关文献,对于缓解代理问题、更好地发挥企业家的积极作用具有一定的现实意义.
