After Putin came to power, conservatism, whose ideological core consists in statism, populism, anti-liberalism and anti-Westernism, has gradually taken shape and become the mainstream ideology in Russia due to a rethinking of the neoliberalisminspired transformation of the Russian society and the Russian counteraction to the post-Cold War international order dominated by neoliberalism. In recent years, Russia has made full use of conservative ideas, using tools such as culture, religion, race, identity politics to gain wider international support for its domestic and foreign policies. By pursuing conservative-values diplomacy, Russia once became the center of international conservatism and accordingly gained international influence, creating a favorable environment for its foreign policy. However, Russia’s conservative-values diplomacy is tainted with not only a deep-rooted Messianic zeal, but also opportunism and instrumentalism. In particular, there is a marked discrepancy between its high-profile insistence on respect for national sovereignty and its perception and corresponding action that actually seek to “equate virtual cultural regions with actual sovereign territory.” With increasing radicalism in Russia’s foreign behavior, its conservative-values diplomacy has also caused more and more concerns and criticisms internationally.
While Chinese and western academia has extensively critiqued the neorealist theory, most of these critiques fail to uncover the root of its theoretical defects, unable to dent the widespread appeal neorealism commands, because they mostly concern the technical aspects while accepting the validity of the theory. This is not conducive to innovation in international relations theory. In order to fundamentally address the root cause, this paper examines neorealism through the perspective of historical materialism, systematically scrutinizing its philosophical foundation. The fundamental reason for the many inherent flaws of neorealism lies in its wrong philosophical basis, which manifests itself in its mechanistic materialist worldview, abstract epistemology and vulgar methodology. Since it highly simplifies and generalizes states into entities that simply follow the physical laws of the atoms, devoid of any social meanings and history, neorealism presents a purely speculative logical system and becomes a theory of mechanics, divorced from the actual practice of international relations. Its lack of humanistic care and the hypocrisy of its “value neutrality” make it a tool of legitimation for certain countries to justify their international behavior. The neorealist theory turns the method of structural analysis into a structuralist rigidity, exaggerating the role of the international structure, and ignoring the agency of man and the state to shape and transform the international system. This critique of the philosophical basis of neorealism can provide insights and inspirations for the construction of a Chinese school of international relations theory.
A process involving multiple parties, China’s consular protection system mainly consists of an early-warning system and an emergency response mechanism. As Chinese citizens overseas are the people China’s consular protection system seeks to serve, their feedback is very important for understanding the current state of the consular protection system and for studying how to improve it. An analysis of questionnaires and interviews administered with overseas Chinese citizens shows that China’s “five-inone” consular protection system involving “the central government, local governments, embassies and consulates abroad, enterprises and individual citizens” has achieved remarkable results. There has been widespread positive reaction by Chinese citizens overseas to the security alerts put out by the Chinese government through official channels. Chinese citizens are now knowledgeable about the basics of how to protect themselves, and are more willing to help each other. Civil society groups have worked to set up platforms for the exchange of security information and for early warning. Chinese enterprises overseas have taken multiple precautionary steps to protect the safety of their employees abroad. There are now effective channels for communication between Chinese embassies and citizens abroad so that the transmission of emergent messages can be guaranteed. Civil society groups organized by Chinese citizens overseas are playing an active part in emergent situations. In the future, China’s consular protection system can be improved upon in the following ways: establishing supervision or punishment mechanisms to strengthen the practical effectiveness of overseas security alerts; finetuning the release of overseas safety alerts, and establishing a public feedback mechanism; using data analysis to prevent overseas security risks in a more scientific way; increasing the publicity of the relevant laws and regulations and raising the profile of the 12308 Global Consular Protection and Service Emergency Hotline, and exploring the possibility of non-governmental actors taking part in the construction of the consular protection system.
The Indian Ocean region（IOR）, which has significant strategic and economic value, is a key region for the United States to implement its Indo-Pacific strategy. The sustained involvement of the US, India and other countries in the IOR in an effort to expand their regional influence and economic interests has led to significant changes in the region’s strategic position and security environment, impacting the IOR’s transportation of goods, maritime security and marine environment. The US seeks to not only control the sea lines of communication（SLOCs） in the Indian Ocean, but also gain support by providing public goods to its allies and partners. As a great power with important influence in the IOR, India seeks to maintain its traditional sphere of influence and obtain economic interests from the region. In addition, both the US and India share the strategic intention to exclude China from the IOR. Geographically, the Indian Ocean is an important maritime route for “the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road”（MSR） promoted by China, whose maritime influence reaches East Africa, the South Pacific and coastal Europe through the Indian Ocean. However, the US, which aims to dominate the geopolitics in the IOR with its Indo-Pacific strategy, has tried to work with India and other western maritime powers to compete with China in the Indian Ocean and its surrounding areas. This is bound to have an impact on the 21st century Maritime Silk Road. Therefore, China should strengthen in-depth cooperation with regional states and formulate corresponding countermeasures to promote the normal development of Maritime Silk Road in the IOR.
The power of member states in international organizations consists of several aspects: the material aspect is the foundation of their power, the ideational aspect refers to the cognitive and behavioral impact ideas have on states, the relational aspect drives changes in power, the structural aspect involves the framework through which power works, and the institutional aspect refers to a path to enhancing power. Although nonArab Islamic states matter for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation（OIC） in terms of collective identity, diversity and strategic value, they are still faced with multiple practical problems such as heterogeneity, divergent interests, power differentials, and different degrees of participation so that their power is still relatively weak as power is concentrated in a few large countries. The material and ideational power of non-Arab Islamic states is relatively limited, and their multiple heterogeneity and marginalization in the system impede their acquisition of relational and structural power. However, non-Arab Islamic states can obtain certain institutional power by virtue of their Islamic identity, geopolitical importance and collective advantages. Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Malaysia are traditionally the more powerful ones among the non-Arab Islamic states. They try to enhance their own power in the OIC, exhibiting different behavioral patterns based on their own power composition, and respective advantages and interests. As their power grows in recent years, non-Arab Islamic states, which are noted for their rising activism, initiative and discursive power, are becoming a key factor affecting the OIC’s agenda setting and organizational development.
Nuclear proliferation, which is one of the most important issues in security studies, has become a popular academic topic as it greatly affects security at national, regional and international levels, and sits at the core of the international nuclear order and the international non-proliferation system. A review of the literature shows that academic research has clustered around four issues relating to nuclear proliferation: motivation, logic, controversy and solution. The motivation strand examines the multiple factors that motivate a country to develop nuclear weapons. The logic strand explains the market path and strategic path of nuclear proliferation, where both the supply and demand sides pursue their military and economic interests while conducting nuclear cooperation on the nuclear market. The controversy strand looks into the debate over the multiple effects of nuclear proliferation, such as optimism vs. pessimism, peace vs. conflict, and differences in nuclear identity. The solution strand suggests solutions to nuclear proliferation. With the expanding scope and depth of these studies, they have deepened our understanding of the complex implications of nuclear proliferation. However, the field is still handicapped by the difficulty in de-politicizing nuclear proliferation, the contradiction between peaceful use of nuclear energy and proliferation, the inconsistency between the security of nuclear powers and international security, and the lack of resources for study. Therefore, there is still room for improvement in the study of nuclear proliferation. As far as the current situation is concerned, the difficult problem that nuclear proliferation research has to deal with is the continuation of proliferation despite non-proliferation efforts.
中日两国即将迎来邦交正常化50周年.50年来,中日两国努力寻求共识,增进理解互信,在贸易投资、技术交流、文化互鉴、环保合作等领域取得了系列重要成果,但围绕历史问题、领土问题及台湾问题等仍摩擦不断.中日关系发展的掣肘和症结何在,如何构建更为积极的中日关系?值此重要节点,回顾、梳理过去50年中日关系的发展历程,从中汲取面向未来的智慧启迪,不忘邦交正常化的初心,从长远着眼,加强战略对话,以政治引领双边关系发展,在合作中增进共同利益,构建契合新时代要求的中日关系,不但有关两国人民福祉和地区发展,也是影响亚洲乃至世界和平与稳定的重要因素.鉴于此,《国际论坛》编辑部邀请国内知名日本问题专家就中日关系历史、影响因素与挑战、中日海洋问题、日本对华认知、两国环保合作等问题进行探讨和研究,现将相关内容辑录刊发,以飨读者.
2021年12月28日,北京外国语大学国际关系学院邀请国内知名学者举行座谈会,研讨区域国别研究的学科发展和人才培养.本期精选部分学者发言以飨读者.学者们认为,随着中国综合国力日益增强,构建和深化区域国别学已是学科体系建设十分迫切的任务.从国家战略发展需要和学科发展规律来看,推动建立具有中国特色的区域国别学一级学科有现实的必要性和可行性.应进一步明确区域国别学的学科内涵、基本理论、研究对象、研究方法、建设机制、人才培养模式和评估标准,加强师资队伍建设,促进区域国别学与政治学、外国语言文学、世界史等邻近学科融合发展,发挥学科交叉的创新力量.在区域国别学一级学科框架内,需进一步探索二级学科设置,切实加强区域国别学理论与方法,大国与发达国家、周边国家、发展中国家和地区的政治、经济、历史、法律、社会等方面的研究,丰富区域国别学的知识供给,满足国家安全和发展需要,为构建新型国际关系,引领全球治理体系变革,构建人类命运共同体做出贡献.
主编简介赵刚北京外国语大学党委常委、副校长、教授、博士生导师,教育部国别和区域研究培育基地北京外国语大学中东欧研究中心主任、波兰研究中心主任,兼任中国欧洲学会中东欧分会副会长,教育部高等学校外国语言文学类专业教学指导委员会非通用语种类专业教学指导分委员会副主任委员.
全球新冠疫情冲击、大国战略竞争和地缘政治冲突导致价值链安全成为主要经济体关注的重要议题.全球不确定性的增强促使大国在价值链治理中更加关切抵抗风险的能力,进而增加了政策投入的力度,但是经济全球化内在的市场逻辑也带来了效率与安全的权衡难题.全球价值链本身具有的连接性与等级性特点,导致大变局时代诸多挑战不仅影响连接性层面的市场性联系和生产性联系,还会重塑等级性层面的制度性依托和嵌入性方式.结合这两个层面的风险,价值链安全治理的主要策略可以类型化为多元化、本地化、网络化和战略化,这些策略能够组合成引导型、调控型和塑造型治理路径.从现实政策变化角度看,2020年以来主要经济体依据价值链安全风险的变化实现了从引导型到塑造型治理路径的转变,美国具有强烈进攻性风格的价值链政策更是进一步促使全球价值链成为大国经济竞争的重要领域.面对大变局时代全球价值链的结构性变化带来的风险,新兴经济体需要加强政策协作,以强化全球价值链的公共产品属性,提高维护经济安全能力.
伙伴关系战略是中国国际战略的重要组成,在世界转型与全球治理转轨过程中,中国与爱尔兰互惠战略伙伴关系作为中国伙伴关系战略在欧洲地区的重要实践,有效推进了双方在经贸、地区治理等方面的务实合作,为国际合作的理论与实践提供新范例.中爱战略伙伴关系是以国家利益互惠为合作基础,以夯实共同利益、增强政治互信为契机进行共同努力的高度协调的双边关系;具有双边关系的对等性与正向性、强调持续而长期的合作和"外溢效应"等特征.中国与爱尔兰在互惠共识上,历经初步探索、全面铺展与继续深化等发展阶段,在政治、经贸与治理等领域取得了诸多成效,具体表现在高层战略协调机制长期稳定、互惠战略伙伴关系动态对等、互惠逻辑的积极性与正向反馈等.在中爱构建互惠战略伙伴关系过程中,双方也面临地区一体化挑战、域外因素干扰以及世界局势转型等问题,两国需切实处理好本国发展、意识形态等问题,推动发展战略对接,并且以制度为基石保障两国合作,加强在非传统安全领域与全球治理协作将成为两国推进伙伴关系、深化政治共识、拓展共同利益的新起点.
民粹主义被视为引导舆论、表达民意以及利用底层民众力量实现政治诉求的主要工具,更是鼓动阿拉伯民众走上街头,引发阿拉伯剧变并导致多个国家陷入长期动荡的核心因素.通过对阿拉伯国家民粹主义产生根源与演变逻辑的分析可以发现,经济发展滞后、民主转型受阻、社会治理失效以及身份认同撕裂是民粹主义在本地区保有强大韧性并不时激烈涌动的主要原因.阿拉伯国家的民粹主义呈现出明显的本土意识形态特征,通过激发民众在社会生活中的不平等感、不公正感和不安全感,强化民众对于魅力领袖的信任与忠诚,以及对伊斯兰复兴的热忱与向往,成为不同政治力量进行本体与他者身份建构、开展广泛政治动员、塑造并强化自身合法性的惯用策略,并对阿拉伯国家政治生态演变和国家认同构建产生了深刻影响.在当前的地区变局下,民粹主义再度与民族主义、威权主义、伊斯兰主义深度融合,成为加剧阿拉伯国家内部官民对立、社会分裂和政治暴力的潜在要素,并将继续制约阿拉伯国家民主转型、经济发展、社会良治等目标的实现.
从"9·11"事件爆发到美国完全撤军的二十年间,上海合作组织与阿富汗的关系实现了从无到有、从初步接触到深入合作的发展.随着塔利班重新掌权,上合组织与阿富汗关系发生重大变化,兼具确定性与不确定性.其中,确定性主要来自上合组织成员国就阿富汗问题表达的共同立场和主张,以及塔利班基于自身利益诉求释放的积极政策信号;不确定性则主要在于,塔利班构建广泛包容政治架构、与恐怖和极端主义势力彻底割裂并予以有效打击、落实温和稳健对内政策并有效治理国家的能力与意愿存疑.鉴于此,上合组织与阿富汗关系的前景尚不明朗.上合组织与阿富汗关系的未来走向,主要取决于塔利班能否达到外界的共同期望、获得广泛的国际承认,同时也会受到上合组织成员国在阿富汗问题上的利益侧重异质性的影响.考虑到阿富汗变局关乎周边地区和平与发展全局,上合组织有必要实现与阿富汗关系正常化,将阿富汗问题纳入基本安全功能,继续推动阿富汗和平重建与发展.
算法技术具有和任何技术工具一样的中性特征.但是,算法一旦被国家行为体使用,就成为国家在国际无政府状态下追求权力和利益的国际政治工具,也就具有了"非中性"作用."技术嵌入"和"权力赋能"是算法产生"非中性"作用的两条路径."技术嵌入"即算法嵌入信息流通体系加剧全球信息生产和获取的不对称性;"权力赋能"即算法通过赋能国家政治、经济、军事力量,增强国家综合国力,这种赋能的不对称性为算法强国谋取国际政治利益提供了现实可能.算法在国际政治中的"非中性"作用主要表现在三个方面,一是对外政治渗透,即算法技术强国利用算法对信息传播的控制,对他国实施政治干预和观念渗透;二是军事力量转移,即算法军事力量赋能的国际差异不断扩大国家间军事实力的"非对称性";三是经济利益获取,即算法通过变革全球生产力和生产关系扩大国际发展鸿沟.算法"非中性"作用的实质是国家间的权力较量、安全博弈和利益争斗.未来,国家需高度重视算法的战略价值,推动算法技术在关键领域的深度应用,利用其提升国家安全治理能力,以维系和拓展国家利益.
通过构建多边制度解决安全问题是非洲安全治理的核心主题.伴随非洲统一组织向非洲联盟的转型,非洲国家在安全制度领域逐步构建起以和平与安全理事会为核心的非洲和平与安全架构,非盟与地区经济共同体/地区机制、次地区制度安排、联合国等在非洲安全治理进程中建立起一系列多层协调机制,它们一道构成复合多元的非洲安全治理制度框架.与非洲统一组织不同,非盟在安全治理领域具备对成员国内部事务进行干预的权力,治理目标聚焦"人的安全",治理规范更趋多元,安全治理与政治治理的制度安排呈现融合发展趋势.非洲国家的脆弱性与非盟的外部依赖性从根本上限制了非盟运用非洲方式解决非洲安全问题的能力.非洲国家内部冲突是非洲和平与安全建设面临的最大挑战,这一现实要求非洲安全治理的制度安排要以增强民族国家权威为导向,不断提高国家提供安全公共产品的能力,进而在地区和大陆层面构建和平与稳定的安全秩序.
北大西洋公约组织的人工智能战略包含强化北约防务和技术实力、引领人工智能治理标准这两大战略意图.为此,北约将通过调配之前积累的数据,利用新型基金项目 并依托跨国联通、官民结合的组织机制,以人工智能技术赋能其防务功能,以先行标准打造利于北约的人工智能治理体系.北约人工智能战略的形成有三方面动因,一是人工智能合作有益于强化北约同盟认同,二是人工智能的军用价值有助于北约"战略再转型",三是美国的"科技竞赢"思维引领战略形成.目前,北约推进该战略主要面临四方面挑战:第一,军用人工智能缺陷尚存,战略实践存在风险;第二,北约规划合作的时间点相对靠后,战略位置不占优势;第三,同盟可支配预算有限,战略部署资源不足;第四,盟国间认知与实力差距较大,短期内难以协调.未来,在北约向"印太"地区投入更多资源和将中国视为"挑战"的背景下,北约推动人工智能军事化和同盟化的动向值得密切关注.
太空治理属于全球治理的范畴,也是全球治理的重要领域.冷战时代确立的太空治理规则,有利地维护了美苏两极太空格局,构建了有利于美苏的全球太空秩序.然而,冷战结束后,随着太空技术的扩散,冷战时代的太空治理规则无法适应太空商业化、太空武器化与太空军事利用等挑战.为此,国家行为体和非国家行为体围绕太空治理规则在联合国框架内外提出了多个倡议.这些太空治理规则倡议主要围绕太空军备控制、太空和平利用等问题展开.太空治理规则倡议的竞争,归根到底还是国家行为体为谋求有利于己的太空秩序的尝试.新规则难以确立的原因是多方面的,但是太空增量的竞争以及全球治理观念的深入,是破解规则停滞的重要力量.构建以联合国为主导的多边、多层次的公平公正的太空治理规则,是构建稳定的全球太空秩序的基础,有利于太空命运共同体的建设.
中日两国即将迎来邦交正常化50周年.50年来,中日两国努力寻求共识,增进理解互信,在贸易投资、技术交流、文化互鉴、环保合作等领域取得了系列重要成果,但围绕历史问题、领土问题及台湾问题等仍摩擦不断.中日关系发展的掣肘和症结何在,如何构建更为积极的中日关系?值此重要节点,回顾、梳理过去50年中日关系的发展历程,从中汲取面向未来的智慧启迪,不忘邦交正常化的初心,从长远着眼,加强战略对话,以政治引领双边关系发展,在合作中增进共同利益,构建契合新时代要求的中日关系,不但有关两国人民福祉和地区发展,也是影响亚洲乃至世界和平与稳定的重要因素.鉴于此,《国际论坛》编辑部邀请国内知名日本问题专家就中日关系历史、影响因素与挑战、中日海洋问题、日本对华认知、两国环保合作等问题进行探讨和研究,现将相关内容辑录刊发,以飨读者.
中日两国即将迎来邦交正常化50周年.50年来,中日两国努力寻求共识,增进理解互信,在贸易投资、技术交流、文化互鉴、环保合作等领域取得了系列重要成果,但围绕历史问题、领土问题及台湾问题等仍摩擦不断.中日关系发展的掣肘和症结何在,如何构建更为积极的中日关系?值此重要节点,回顾、梳理过去50年中日关系的发展历程,从中汲取面向未来的智慧启迪,不忘邦交正常化的初心,从长远着眼,加强战略对话,以政治引领双边关系发展,在合作中增进共同利益,构建契合新时代要求的中日关系,不但有关两国人民福祉和地区发展,也是影响亚洲乃至世界和平与稳定的重要因素.鉴于此,《国际论坛》编辑部邀请国内知名日本问题专家就中日关系历史、影响因素与挑战、中日海洋问题、日本对华认知、两国环保合作等问题进行探讨和研究,现将相关内容辑录刊发,以飨读者.
面对中美战略博弈格局,韩国基于"中等强国"定位,着力调整对外经济合作政策.在实现经济自主性、巩固产业优势、维护地区影响力等利益诉求的驱动下,韩国侧重于修正对中美的非对称依赖,加强对美合作;着眼防范中国的技术赶超,确保对华竞争优势;打造多元合作结构,凸显本国地区合作"支点"的角色.尹熙悦总统就任后,韩国国内短期内出现政府、企业一致倒向美国的场景,对外合作政策调整公开化.然而,由于韩国无法左右中美博弈走向,依托韩美合作增强对华博弈筹码的政策效果不仅有限,且影响中韩经济合作的稳定.中韩紧密的经济联系与广泛的共同利益是两国持续深化合作的基础,韩国无法忽视中国的经济影响力,中国市场依然对韩国具有重要的吸引力.韩国新政府的对外经贸合作政策正尝试在"倒向美国"与"不放弃与中国合作"之间保持平衡.未来中韩应深入挖掘中国市场,深化双边供应链合作,共同推动东亚区域经济一体化深入发展,有效管控美国因素对中韩经济合作的干扰.
