According to Victor Fuchs(1968),the cyclical fluctuations in output and employment in the industrial sector are larger than those in the service sector.This implies that as the proportion of the service sector increases,the cyclical fluctuations of the overall economy will tend to decrease,which has been confirmed by the performance of the real economy.Why does the growth of the service sector lead to a reduction in economic fluctuations?This paper intends to explore this issue from the perspective of production networks. Theoretically,we propose a general equilibrium model with a production network to understand the mechanism by which the growth of the service sector affects economic fluctuations,and develop two interrelated theoretical hypotheses.First,when the elasticities of substitution between primary inputs and intermediate inputs are greater than those between different intermediate inputs,lower sparsity of production networks will lead to smaller economic fluctuations.Second,a rising proportion of the service sector will cause declining sparsity of production networks,via an increase in the shares of primary inputs and final consumption,with the former reflecting the growing role of the service sector as a user of pri-mary inputs and the latter reflecting the increased role of the service sector as a provider of final goods. Empirically,we employ nearly 30 years of global input-output data to conduct empirical tests based on a simultane-ous equation econometric model.The benchmark regression results show that a 10％increase in the proportions of pri-mary inputs and final consumption in the service sector will reduce production network sparsity by 0.42％-1.34％,while a 10％reduction in production network sparsity will result in a decrease of 0.79-1.56 units in economic fluctuations.This suggests that the growth of the service sector with rises in the proportions of primary inputs and final consumption can lower production network linkage sparsity,and thus iron out economic fluctuations.This basic conclusion remains valid after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests.A counterfactual analysis for China indicates that if the service sector share,intermediate input share,and service productivity volatility in China are replaced with those in the USA,re-spectively,China's aggregate economic fluctuations would experience varying degrees of decrease.However,changing the service sector share and the Intermed,ate input share contribute more(69.8％and 73.6％). This study has significant policy implications.In China,the current service sector share in the national economy is significantly lower than that of developed market economies,which not only hinders the optimization and upgrading of economic and industrial structures but also constrains the further development of Chinese overall economy.As this re-search shows,the backwardness of the service sector also leads to an increase in the sparsity of production networks,fur-ther resulting in larger economic fluctuations.Substantial economic fluctuations not only raise the cost of structural ad-justments and worsen expectations for sustainable economic growth but also generate global spillover effects through ex-ternal economic and trade channels,thus exacerbating the external development environment.Conversely,we can reduce the sparsity of production networks and smooth out significant economic fluctuations by increasing the primary input share(or employment)and the final consumption share of the service sector.Therefore,it is both urgent and strategically profound to take active measures to promote the comprehensive development of the service sector. First,we should properly handle the relationship among economic growth,structural changes,and economic fluctua-tions.It is crucial to continuously optimize the structure and reduce economic fluctuations in the process of economic de-velopment and growth. Second,we should take effective measures to promote the healthy,efficient,and sustained development of the ser-vice sector.These include improving the institutional mechanisms of the service sector,breaking administrative monopo-lies,fostering market competition,balancing the development of different service sectors,as well as adapting to the global trend of service liberalization,and becoming a contributor to multilateral rules in service trade. Third,we should correctly deal with the relationship between the service sector and other sectors,especially the manufacturing sector.It is necessary to improve the development quality and efficiency of the service sector,so as to bet-ter serve the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector and shape a congenial development pattern,which can ultimately enhance the resilience and security level of the industrial and supply chains. Lastly,we should leverage the framework or perspective of economic networks to comprehend the impact of the growth of the service sector on economic fluctuations.It is imperative to contextualize the development of the service sec-tor within the broader framework of overall economic development both domestically and internationally,rather than con-sidering it in isolation.The economic networks should not be confined to a single country but extend their reach on a global scale.Only in this way can domestic service enterprises grow bigger and get stronger to consolidate the micro foundation of the service sector development.
Expanding consumer demand is the key link to realize the domestic big cycle. According to WDI data calculated by the World Bank, from 2005 to 2020, the consumption rate of Chinese residents has always been between 34%-39%, with an average of 37.10%, which is far lower than the average level of 58.73% in high-income countries during the same period, and even lower than the average level of 77.64% in low-income countries. It is not difficult to understand that an important reason for the low consumption rate of Chinese residents is the high savings rate in China.Generally speaking, a sound social pension system can significantly reduce people’s preventive savings. However, the experiences of some countries are just the opposite. Taking Japan as an example, although Japan has a more complete pension system than most countries, its savings rate has been rising in recent years. The reason for this is related to Japan’s increasingly severe population aging. At present, China is also facing an increasingly serious problem of population aging, and the social pension system is not yet perfect in developed countries such as Japan. How to provide for the elderly in the future will become a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the heads of the Chinese people. Based on the analysis of the latest national policies and public opinion survey results, this article concludes that in the context of population aging, it is difficult for China to solve the pension problem in the future by relying solely on social pension or improving a single pension mode that relies on family pension. Building a pension mode that promotes and increasingly integrates family pension and social pension may be the best choice for China. Based on the above analysis, this article proposes the following research topics: How does the integration of family and social pension mode affect the savings rate of Chinese residents? What is the mechanism? What kind of pension system should China establish to more effectively reduce the resident savings rate?The research finds that:（1） improving the social pension system is conducive to reducing the savings rate of residents, but in the long run, due to the existence of aging population, its impact on the decline in the savings rate of residents is limited; In contrast, the integration of family pension and social pension can more effectively reduce the savings rate of residents.（2） The mechanism behind the above conclusions is that, along with the return of family pension mode and the integration of the two pension mode, children’s fertility desire increases, so their intergenerational transfer income to their parents can be maintained for a long time, which is conducive to reducing the household savings rate.（3） Empirical analysis confirms the above conclusions, and it is also found that families with more elderly people have a higher fertility rate of their children. This is due to the fact that elderly people help their children care for them, reducing the time cost of raising their children, and therefore, family pension mode are more effective in reducing the savings rate.The contributions of this article are mainly manifested in the following two aspects:（1） Based on the background of population aging, this article combines the traditional Chinese family pension mode of “raising children to prevent aging” and the social pension mode into the classic OLG model, and establishes an OLG expansion model for the impact of the integration of family pension mode and social pension mode on the savings rate.（2） This article demonstrates why the role of social pension mode in reducing the savings rate of residents is limited in the context of population aging, while the return of family pension mode and the integration of family pension mode and social pension mode are a more sustainable pension system and more effective in reducing the savings rate. It can be said that this paper provides a new perspective for the establishment of a more sustainable pension system.
本文为研究政府间转移支付提供了一个可拓展的一般性理论框架.在公共支出存在外部性、地区对于公共品需求具有异质性偏好的设定下,本文证明中央对地方一般性转移支付是公共支出的函数,其边际量大小由四个因素决定,分别是支出对转移支付的弹性、公共支出在地区间的分布、中央对公共支出均等化的偏好,以及地区公共支出的外部性大小.结合该理论框架,本文进一步使用中国2019年的县级财政数据进行了数值分析,结果表明最优边际转移支付呈现U型且主要为负,其形状主要由公共支出均等化偏好和外部性决定.通过与现实政策对比,本文认为应进一步增强地区间基本公共服务均等化的政策倾斜力度.
近年来,随着可持续发展意识的增强,企业的ESG表现逐渐受到了投资者的广泛关注,并对企业长期经营产生持续影响.在新发展阶段,ESG表现能否促进企业创新值得深入研究.论文基于利益相关者理论分析了 ESG表现对企业创新可能的影响及机制,利用2009-2020年A股上市公司的专利数据,实证检验了企业ESG表现的创新效应.研究表明:ESG表现可以显著提高企业创新产出,这一促进作用在大型企业和国有企业中更为显著;机制分析发现,ESG表现主要通过缓解融资约束、提高员工创新效率和风险承担水平等机制促进企业创新.进一步研究发现:ESG表现不仅提高企业创新产出数量,还有助于提升创新质量;但随着ESG评级不确定性程度提高,ESG表现对企业创新水平的促进作用相对减弱.为此,应进一步鼓励企业加强ESG建设,加快构建ESG信息标准化和强制披露制度,提高企业ESG信息披露质量,推动企业创新,助力企业高质量发展.
现代财税体制是同社会主义市场经济和现代国家治理相匹配的财税体制形态,其本质是中国式现代化财税体制.作为国家治理体系中具有基础性和支撑性意义的组成部分,它是优化资源配置、维护市场统一、促进社会公平和实现国家长治久安的制度保障.其基本标志,就是匹配现代国家治理要求,让财政成为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,让财税体制成为国家治理体系的基础性和支撑性要素.其基本特征,就是"公共性+非营利性+规范性+基础性+支撑性".只有契合这一基本标志且同时具备这五个基本特征的财税体制形态,才能称得上现代财税体制.说到底,建立现代财税体制是朝向实现财税治理体系和治理能力现代化、全面建设社会主义现代化国家的宏伟目标而去的.
监管处罚作为审慎监管的重要组成部分,对防范化解银行个体风险和系统性风险均具有重要作用.本文基于2007-2020年中国银行业微观数据,考察了银行业监管处罚对银行个体风险的影响.研究发现:监管处罚显著抑制了违规银行风险,有利于维护银行系统稳定.特别是在2015年《中国银行业监督管理委员会行政处罚办法》修订后,对银行风险防范起到重要作用.在此基础上,本文从时间和空间两个维度分析了监管处罚有效性,发现监管处罚的风险抑制作用不仅具有长期效应,还能起到"杀鸡儆猴"的警示效应.进一步研究表明,银行的规模和国有属性会弱化监管处罚的风险抑制作用,而在存款保险制度实施之后这种弱化作用有所减小.此外,搭配经济类处罚或纳入机构为主体的处罚措施实际效果会更好.但监管处罚也存在对高风险银行处罚不足,而对低风险银行处罚过度的问题.本文丰富了监管处罚有效性的内涵,为建立防范化解银行风险的长效机制提供了理论支持.
本文在多产品企业异质性模型的基础上,从出口产品转换的视角考察了跨境电商的资源再配置效应.通过合并使用中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库及跨境电商相关数据,利用双重差分模型估计了跨境电商对我国工业企业出口产品转换的影响及其资源配置效应.研究显示,跨境电商显著提升了中国工业企业的出口产品转换率,且这种产品转换有利于企业全要素生产率和出 口产品质量的提升,具有良好的资源配置效应.进一步的机制检验发现,跨境电商主要通过"成本效应"和"竞争效应",促进了出口产品转换和资源再配置.跨境电商对出口新增产品数的促进作用最大,对删减产品数的促进作用次之,对持续存在产品数的影响最小.鉴于产品电商敏感度的差异,跨境电商产业政策促进了出口产品结构向电商敏感度高的产品进行偏移.本文的研究为理解跨境电商对产品转换和资源配置的影响提供了微观证据.
Bai et al.(2006)和CCER"中国经济观察"研究组(2007)为中国宏微观两种数据来源的资本回报率研究奠定了方法论基础,但沿用上述两种方法开展后续研究存在两个有待解决的问题:第一,相似对象下两种方法的宏微观资本回报率测算结果不相等;第二,不同对象间两种方法的宏微观资本回报率测算结果不可比.本文从Cochrane(1991,1996)的资本回报率定义出发,利用投资的q理论构造单一测算思路——资本边际转换率测算方法,将宏微观两种数据来源的资本回报率融合在"资本回报率=资本边际转换率"的经济意义下,实现相似对象的宏微观资本回报率测算结果相等,并将不同对象宏微观资本回报率的对比建立在可比的资本边际转换率基础上.可以证明,Bai et al.(2006)和CCER"中国经济观察"研究组(2007)两种方法分别是本文方法在一定假设条件下的特定应用.综上,本文方法为未来中国资本回报率的相关研究提供了新的方法论基础,可以有效替代Bai et al.(2006)和CCER"中国经济观察"研究组(2007)两种方法.
传统货币政策以消费者价格指数通胀率作为名义锚.但是,消费价格对货币政策调控较弱的反应度与其他典型价格指标形成了鲜明对比.将传统通胀概念与度量拓展到消费者价格之外的维度是否能更好地实现货币政策最终目标尚缺乏科学证据.本文基于我国货币政策"稳物价、促增长"的最终目标构建理论模型,考察通胀调控目标由消费类拓展到非消费类和资产价格类维度之后,货币政策钉住哪种通胀指标组合方式可以最有效地实现货币政策最终 目标.同时基于2000-2020年期间的时序数据估计SVAR模型,进而运用反事实仿真方法分析货币政策选择不同通胀调控目标对应的经济动态特征.结果表明:货币政策面临经济增长与价格稳定之间的权衡取舍,货币政策寻锚问题的着力点在于同时考虑消费类和非消费类价格,而资产价格则不宜作为钉住目标纳入通胀度量范畴.
Income inequality has always been a major concern for governments and the people. To combat rising income inequality in China, the Chinese government has launched a series of reforms and considerably strengthened redistribution since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. This article focuses on evaluating the distributional impacts of the three most important redistribution policies since then, including basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents, public transfers, and personal income tax. In this paper, we document and decompose changes in income distribution from 2010 to 2018, using data from the China Household Finance Surveys（CHFS）. CHFS is a nationally representative dataset that collects detailed information on household demographics and different sources of income. Following Wimer et al.（2020）, we first carefully document income growth rates by quantile of initial household income distribution in order to capture the changes in the full income distribution over the period 2010-2018. Our measure of inequality is better than traditional summary measures such as the Gini coefficient because it allows us to focus more on changes in the lower end of the income distribution, which is particularly relevant to China’s recent campaign for “common prosperity”. We then develop a model to decompose the income distribution given different counterfactual scenarios to analyze the effect of the three redistribution policies collectively and individually. This exercise allows us to see which policies have contributed most to the changes in income distribution during the period 2010-2018. Furthermore, we simulate future policies to examine the effects of specific aspects of the policies on income distribution. The results provide important guidance for improving program designs with respect to future reforms of the redistribution policies.Our paper makes three contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, we have used a new measure of income distribution to investigate the latest changes in inequality in China over a relatively long period of time of almost a decade. The empirical results show that inequality of market income in China has continued to rise in the past decade, but that of total income has declined thanks to the strong redistribution efforts under the current administration. Secondly, using the decomposition method, we have identified the contributions of the redistribution policies to changes in income distribution. Our results show pension reform and changes in public transfer policies have played the most important role in the declining overall inequality. In addition, the redistribution effect of pension reform mainly came from the expansion of its coverage, followed by the increase in its benefit level. On the other hand, the effects of changes in public transfer policies mainly came from the more generous payments and better targeting of low-income households. Lastly, our policy simulations suggest that if the government aims to further strengthen redistribution by increasing total expenditures on basic pensions and public transfers, it would be more effective to increase program participation and targeting rather than the level of payments in order to achieve better redistribution outcomes.Finally, we would like to emphasize that our counterfactual decomposition analysis is only a mechanical accounting exercise that does not fully take consideration into behavioral changes of households in response to changes in the redistribution policies. Theoretically, policy changes not only directly affect household redistributed income, but also may induce behavioral changes such as changes in labor supplies. However, we believe that this concern would not substantially change our main conclusion drawn in this paper. Given that current levels of pension and public transfer payments for urban and rural residents and the average tax rate in China are still relatively low, existing studies generally find that changes in redistribution policies have very limited influence on household labor supply decisions. We leave a more comprehensive and deeper study of these issues for future research.
正确处理劳动和资本的分配关系,实现共富裕,是中国式现代化的重要特征.税收是调节劳动和资本收入分配的重要制度.各项税收最终被劳动和资本负担,并影响收入分配.本文基于一般均衡税收归宿理论和模型,全面测算了我国2002-2018年间各项税收对劳动和资本形成的税收负担及对我国要素收入分配的影响,结果显示:我国资本税负一直高于劳动税负,2008年国际金融危机后,资本税负上升,劳动税负下降.其中,劳动的间接税负担持续下降,劳动的直接税负担持续上升,劳动总税负呈下降趋势;资本的直接税负担远低于资本的间接税负担;在各项间接税中,企业所得税最有利于降低劳动税负、增加资本税负.税收的要素分配结果显示:间接税具有提高劳动收入份额、降低资本收入份额的作用,直接税则相反,综合来看,税收总体上有利于劳动收入份额提高;企业所得税对提高劳动收入份额贡献率最大,年平均贡献率达到66.22％.
从替代体力的蒸汽机到替代脑力的AI,重大劳动节约型技术的创新和应用都深度改变了世界经济发展格局,并成为学界研究焦点.然而梳理文献发现,现有关于劳动节约型技术的研究主要聚焦于其应用或引进,对其创新关注甚少.本文首次结合AI领域前沿的BERT语言模型和专利摘要较为精准地识别劳动节约型技术创新.在此基础上,考虑到中国正处于老龄化加剧、劳动力成本快速上涨阶段且劳动节约型前沿技术引进日益受阻,检验劳动力成本上升如何影响中国企业的劳动节约型技术自主创新.基于上市公司数据,本文发现劳动力成本上升显著地促进了劳动节约型技术创新的概率、数量、占比以及质量.使用考虑中国省界特征的相邻城市样本来解决潜在内生性问题后结论依然成立.本文提出的特定技术创新的识别方法可复制推广,在技术创新相关研究领域有较大应用前景.本文研究结论对于理解我国在人口红利消失、老龄化加剧、劳动力成本快速上升阶段的特定类型技术创新有重要启示.
当年轻劳动力从低收入地区流向高收入地区时,低收入地区社会保障赡养负担和缴费率上升,实际收入下降,进而引发更多人口流出,影响区域协调发展.本文通过理论模型和实证数据分析了三种社会保障区域协调模式在效率和公平方面的表现.分析发现,"区域独立"和"全国统一"模式均未能实现效率最优,前者导致各地实际费率差异和劳动力流动规模过大,而后者则过小,存在一个帕累托效率最优的"相互调剂"模式.然而,如果兼顾公平性,只需付出微小的效率损失就可以大幅增进区域公平,加大跨区域调剂力度的"公平—效率转换比"极高.实证数据显示,当前社会保障区域协调模式已接近效率最优,但仍需大力推进公平性.未来推动区域社会保障协调发展,应当加大调剂和统筹的力度以及对人口流入地区的社保稽核力度,并预防人口过度流动带来的区域发展失衡.
本文在标准新凯恩斯货币模型中引入人工智能,研究人工智能对最优货币政策及货币政策设计的影响.基于推导出的二阶福利损失函数,本文首先分析了央行面临权衡的变化,然后以福利为标准分析了人工智能对央行货币政策规则选择的影响.研究发现:第一,在标准新凯恩斯货币模型中,央行在通胀和产出缺口之间权衡,而引入人工智能后,就业与人工智能投资波动也成为央行重要的权衡项.第二,引入人工智能后,相对于盯住通胀和产出缺口的泰勒规则,盯住通胀和就业缺口的货币政策规则带来更小的福利损失.这主要是因为,在人工智能可以高度替代劳动的情况下,过度重视产出缺口会导致人工智能投资和就业的巨大波动,并显著增加名义价格和工资粘性带来的福利损失.这一发现改变了央行应盯住通胀和产出缺口的结论,具有明确的政策含义.
参照芯片断供的现实背景,本文在"制造商—零售商"纵向结构框架下考察了技术断供对自主创新激励的影响.技术断供意味着,技术领先的上游国外制造商不能向某个下游零售商提供中间品.分析表明,技术断供前,技术落后的上游本地制造商缺乏自主创新激励的重要原因是创新的"货币外部性":尽管其技术追赶可以通过压缩国外制造商的抽租能力而让下游厂商获益,但其本身却无法通过赢得下游市场并从中获利.技术断供后,被断供下游零售商只能从本地制造商采购中间品,这种"绑定效应"部分内化了本地制造商的货币外部性,进而会提高其自主创新激励;但与此同时,技术断供也会提高外国制造商为阻止本地制造商技术追赶而实施人才圈定策略的激励和能力.所以,为破解外国制造商的"人才圈定"策略,需要以政府采购等方式对本地制造商进行有相当力度且有持续性的创新政策支持.
本文基于区分宏观审慎与微观审慎这一崭新视角,采用前沿的系统性风险分解方法与相对重要性分析技术,准确测度国际输入性风险冲击下,全球49个主要金融市场的系统关联及尾部风险,精准识别我国金融市场的薄弱环节.同时,就不同市场冲击下各影响因素对系统性风险及其子成分的作用方向、影响力度等展开深入研究,剖析输入性金融风险的传染渠道.此外,对发达市场、新兴市场风险的影响因素与传染渠道展开对比分析.最后,本文采用条件分位数回归模型,探究各因素在不同风险分位数区间的异质性影响,并考察它们在各时期的渐进演变.在此基础上,为有效应对输入性风险冲击提出了相关政策建议,从而为健全国际金融风险防范机制、"守住不发生系统性风险底线"提供参考依据.
面对日趋严重的人口老龄化问题,我国亟需通过完善养老体系等举措来降低居民部门预防性储蓄,以提振居民部门的消费需求.伴随着社会养老方式对家庭养老方式的替代,部分研究认为,居民部门储蓄率将明显下降,消费率也将随之升高.当前国家政策和民意调查均表明,未来在我国,家庭养老方式不会被替代,家庭养老方式与社会养老方式可能长期互补并趋于融合,因此需要重新评估养老体系转型对储蓄率的影响.本文在经典的OLG模型中引入家庭养老和社会养老两种养老方式并研究两种养老方式融合对居民储蓄率的影响.研究发现:(1)完善社会养老体系有利于降低居民储蓄率,但长期看,由于人口老龄化的存在,其降低居民储蓄率的效果有限,而家庭养老与社会养老融合,能更有效降低居民储蓄率.(2)上述结论背后的机制在于,伴随着两种养老方式融合,居民生育意愿增强,子女对父辈的代际转移支出可以长久维持,从而有利于降低居民储蓄率.(3)数值模拟和实证分析证实了以上结论.实证分析还发现,我国老年人数量越多的家庭,子女的生育率越高,这得益于老年人帮子女看护孩子而降低了子女养育孩子的时间成本,因而家庭养老方式回归更能有效降低储蓄率.由此认为,在实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略背景下,尤其需要家庭养老方式回归,建立家庭养老与社会养老融合的可持续的养老体系,才能更好地降低居民储蓄率,扩大消费需求.
The COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has brought severe challenges to China’s economy. In the early stage of the pandemic, firms’ operations were suspended, operating incomes decreased, fixed costs and extra pandemic prevention and control expenses grew, and the cash turnover pressure increased sharply. If the COVID-19 pandemic leads to the suspension of operations across a substantial number of enterprises, the operational crisis would be likely to quickly propagate through the whole supply chain, ultimately impacting the entire economic system. In response to this potential crisis, the Chinese government continuously emphasized that state-owned enterprises（SOEs） should coordinate upstream and downstream enterprises, stabilize supply chains, and support economic recovery after the pandemic was effectively controlled. According to relevant surveys, enterprises commonly encountered a major challenge of cash flow shortfall due to the impact of the pandemic. Therefore, in view of the influence of SOEs on the net operating cash flow of upstream and downstream non-SOEs in the supply chain, we investigate whether SOEs support the operation of non-SOEs, facilitate the operation of supply chains, and stabilize the overall economy in the face of the unexpected and massive negative impacts of COVID-19 on the economy. We expect that, given the severity of the pandemic’s impact on enterprise operations, SOEs can provide assistance to upstream and downstream non-SOEs in the supply chain through two primary mechanisms. First, the earlier resumption of production by SOEs can secure supply and stabilize demand. It motivated upstream and downstream non-SOEs to resume production and maintain the efficiency of product circulation. Second, owing to their financial strength and advantageous financing position, SOEs can offer more trade credit to upstream and downstream non-SOEs. Higher product circulation efficiency and more trade credit support could help enterprises maintain relatively more net operating cash flow. Therefore, we expect that after the pandemic, the net operating cash flow of non-SOEs that include SOEs in the supply chain would be higher compared with that of non-SOEs that exclude SOEs in the supply chain.Using the sample of China’s A-share listed non-SOEs during the period of the second to fourth quarter of 2019 and the second to fourth quarter of 2020, we empirically find that the net operating cash flow of non-SOEs with SOEs in the supply chain is higher than that of non-SOEs without SOEs in the supply chain after the COVID-19 outbreak. Besides, we find that the supporting effect is more pronounced for non-SOEs with greater operation uncertainty or located in the city affected more severely by the pandemic. Mechanism analysis shows that SOEs in the supply chain can stabilize non-SOEs’ net operating cash flow by maintaining product circulation efficiency and providing more trade credit. Economic consequences analysis shows that the operating income growth rate and market value of non-SOEs with SOEs in the supply chain are higher than those of non-SOEs without SOEs in the supply chain after the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, in cities where there are more non-SOEs that have SOEs in the supply chain, the regional economy would recover faster under the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, our study indicates that SOEs play an important role as economic stabilizers by supporting upstream and downstream non-SOEs in the supply chain.This study offers three contributions to extant literature. First, taking the COVID-19 as the scenario, this paper shows that China’s SOEs can play the role of economic stabilizer, thus providing systematic and clear empirical evidence for SOEs to play the role of economic stabilizer under a severe negative shock. Second, this study identifies the micro-foundation and underlying mechanism through which SOEs stabilize the economy, tracing the linkages from microenterprises to the macroeconomy, with a focus on supply chain support. Finally, this study expands the research perspective on the role of SOEs in the supply chain. Besides, our conclusion yields important policy implications, especially in the current context of triple pressures comprising contracting demand, supply shocks, and weakened expectations that threaten China’s economic stability.
长期以来,刚性兑付被视作中国影子银行体系的扭曲性特征之一,然而刚性兑付这一隐性规则在中国影子银行发展之初就存在.本文研究表明,刚性兑付的作用在中国影子银行的不同发展阶段上具有差异,决定因素是刚性兑付的资金来源.早期刚性兑付的资金主要来自资管机构的自有资金,刚性兑付把资管机构变成投资风险的实际承担者,不仅倒逼资管机构审慎投资,也让投资者对资管机构产生了信任,因此早期的刚性兑付既是一种自律机制,还是一种信任机制,让中国影子银行在基本保持稳定的情况下实现资管规模的快速增长.然而,资管机构自有资金的增速落后于资产规模的增速,以至于在一定时点后资管机构不再能够以自有资金维系刚性兑付,只能依靠"拆东墙补西墙"等方式,但这样的做法不仅不可持续,反而会诱发风险、掩饰风险,此时政府应当强制打破刚性兑付.本文能够为政府在不同时期对影子银行和刚性兑付态度的转变,以及2018年资管新规"破立结合、双管齐下"的治理逻辑提供解释.
本文通过考察中西方千年金融发展,从国家治理逻辑角度提出了中西方金融大分流的新假说.该假说认为金融大分流的本质在于能否建立起可持续的公共信用体系,根源则在于中西方政治目标与治理模式的分野以及由此带来的公共信用供求的差异.该假说强调"目标函数"决定"行为方程",揭示了政治目标以及与之相契合的治理模式选择在各国金融制度长期演进中所起的关键性作用,为分析金融大分流提供了更为完整的逻辑链条和更有说服力的理论机制.基于大历史视域下的国家治理逻辑假说,以及近代以来中国为现代化融资所进行的艰难探索和成功实践,本文认为,超越金融大分流所暗含的"从分流到合流"的逻辑,走中国特色金融发展道路,是金融助力现代化的必然之选:既要深刻总结各国金融发展所呈现的规律性认识,又要找准并坚持中国特色,真正做到"以我为主,博采众长";归根到底,中国特色金融发展的逻辑内嵌于中国式现代化发展的逻辑.
