This paper studies the impact of green fiscal rules-designed to protect climate-related spending-on debt dynamics.Simulations of green rules that exempt green spending from the rule limits for an emerging market economy illustrate that they can lead to unsustainable debt dynamics when the net zero emissions goal is pursued mostly using spending-based instruments(e.g.,investment and subsidies).Or the rule would need to implicitly assume a large fiscal adjustment in the non-green budget,which would undermine its credibility.It will be needed to build broad public consensus for a more comprehensive fiscal strategy that tackles the difficult policy tradeoffs that will be required and takes into account long-term effects.A more appropriate mix of climate policies,including actively employing carbon pricing,should be pursued within the overall setting of fiscal and debt objectives.Developing"green"medium-term fiscal frameworks would help to integrate climate change considerations into fiscal policy design in a more comprehensive manner.
This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the implications for financial stability of a central bank issuing a digital currency to the public at large.We start with a systematic analysis of balance sheet changes that arise from the new liability for the central bank and the banking system,and examine how they depend on preconditions,central bank choices,and banking system responses.Based on this,we discuss the range of implications for financial stability that may arise in steady state,in the context of adoption,and in crisis times.Threats to financial intermediation in steady state arise mainly in situations where the central bank balance sheet expands,and triggers adjustment mechanisms that lead to more costly or less stable funding of the banking system,while in crisis times run risk may increase.Our analysis of policy choices to control these effects considers macroprudential policy,and an expansion of central bank lending to commercial banks,but finds that a main contribution needs to come from a design of the CBDC that encourages its use as a means of payment rather than a store of value.
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
This paper investigates the impact of automation on the U.S.labor market from 2000 to 2007,specifically examining whether more generous social protection programs can mitigate negative effects.Following Acemoglu et al.(2020),the study finds that areas with higher robot adoption reduced employment and wages,in particular for workers without college degree.Notably,the paper exploits differences in social protection generosity across states and finds that areas with more generous unemployment insurance(UI)alleviated the negative effects on wages,especially for less-skilled workers.The results suggest that UI allowed displaced workers to find better matches The findings emphasize the importance of robust social protection policies in addressing the challenges posed by automation,contributing valuable insights for policymakers.
This paper provides insights into the determinants of currency choice in cross-border bank lending,such as bilateral distance,financial and trade linkages to issuer countries of major currencies,and invoicing currency patterns.Cross-border bank lending in US dollars,and particularly in Euro,is highly concentrated in a small number of countries.The UK is central in the international network of loans denominated in Euro,although there are tentative signs that this role has diminished for lending to non-banks since Brexit.Offshore financial centres are pivotal for US dollars loans,reflecting,in particular,lending to non-bank financial intermediaries in the Cayman Islands,possibly as a result of regulatory and tax optimisation strategies.The empirical analysis suggests that Euro-denominated loans face the"tyranny of distance",in line with predictions of gravity models of trade,in contrast to US dollar loans.Complementarities between trade invoicing and bank lending are found for both the Euro and the US dollar.
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of these three changes in a common framework. Simulation results suggest that while aging drags down the real interest rate, climate change puts upward pressure on the real interest rate and inflation. As climate change intensifies, it will be the dominant factor shaping the macroeconomic variables. This results in higher inflation and a higher debtto-GDP ratio, requiring tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The results further suggest that economic uncertainty induced by climate change amplifies these effects of climate change.
随着人口预期寿命的延长和新生人口比例的减少,我国迈入深度老龄化社会,家庭的养老储备充足性面临挑战.在储蓄养老向财富养老转型的背景下,探究家庭如何合理、有效地配置资产来积极应对老龄化,对银发时代家庭金融风险的防范和化解具有重要意义.本文基于现有文献,梳理了人口老龄化对家庭资产配置的影响:首先根据家庭财务决策的过程,从风险约束、效用函数、信息效率这三个角度重点分析了老龄化如何影响家庭参与风险金融市场的决策;然后从生命周期的角度总结了家庭在不同年龄阶段的投资组合多样性;最后基于风险偏好和信息效率,整理了老龄化对于家庭投资组合有效性的影响.此外,本文还提出了未来可以继续探索的两个潜在研究方向.
近年来虽然新兴经济体外币债务份额有所下降,但结构性错配风险依然突出.在美元上行周期下,做好外债风险管理对维护新兴经济体金融系统稳定具有重要意义.本文利用2000-2021年间美元指数和中国、印度、巴西等31个新兴经济体宏观外债数据以及中国538家微观企业外债融资数据,实证分析美元周期对新兴经济体外债的影响.本文研究发现:美元进入上行周期,不仅会显著增加新兴经济体企业外债融资规模、降低企业外债融资期限,而且会显著增加新兴经济体宏观外债规模,推升短期外债占比.本文进一步研究发现,宏观审慎政策可以有效应对美元周期下新兴经济体微观和宏观两个层面的外债风险.基于此,文章建议加强微观和宏观外债风险监测与预警,持续完善外债风险管理政策,强化宏观审慎政策与货币政策协调性,有效应对美元周期下新兴经济体外债风险.
引言 依照监管审查和评估程序(SREP),欧洲中央银行定期对金融机构进行年度压力测试,而本次自下而上的气候风险压力测试则是欧洲央行2022年针对重要金融机构年度压力测试的工作之一. 应对气候和环境相关风险是欧洲央行银行监管局2022-2024年的战略重点之一.2022年气候风险压力测试将与气候和环境风险管理实践中的监管专题审查结合,共同评估受监管机构在气候风险管理方面的能力和准备情况.
2023年是全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神的开局之年.在宏观政策环境整体向好和中国经济稳健复苏的环境下,预计银行业维持利润增长趋势不变,资产负债结构进一步优化,资产质量总体保持稳定且预期进一步向好.为了在推动经济高质量发展中贡献更大力量,商业银行要全力支持实体经济疫后复苏,纵深推进战略业务布局,持续加大对国家重点战略领域的支持力度,紧密对接农村、外贸、科技、养老、新市民等重点客群,加快推动业务数字化转型.同时,强化改革创新,持续加大对新兴行业的支持力度,服务建设现代化产业体系.
