The Center for Strategic and International Studies which has long focused on the South China Sea（ SCS） issue,produces a large number of researches and has exerted a certain influence on the US policy of SCS. Based on the analysis of CSIS’s four kinds of publications on SCS from 2009 to 2022,it can be found that the researches of CSIS focus on the interpretation of China’s SCS policy,the analysis of SCS disputes,the discussion of the SCS issues under the triangular relations between the United States,China and ASEAN,and the provision of opinions and suggestions for the US SCS policy. Its researches with strong foresight and predictability as well as obviously contradiction,show the characteristics of both micro and macro,ideological and objective coexistence. The reason why CSIS can produce high-quality research is due to its institutional design in terms of research independence,personnel mobility,research methods and public participation. These measures have certain reference significance for Chinese think tanks of international affairs.
The year 2023 marks the 10th anniversary of the China-ASEAN community of shared future. This initiative has achieved a number of results at the regional level,sub-regional level and bilateral level,and it has been actively recognized by ASEAN and its members,and became a behavioral guide to friendly cooperation between the two sides. At the same time,some ASEAN countries’ political elites have cognitive biases on the “China-ASEAN community of shared future”and adopt vague or selective response to the initiative,which affects the comprehensive and in-depth promotion of the initiative. Through the analytical methods of international political psychology,this paper will explore the causes and forms of the cognitive biases of ASEAN political elites,be expected to find helpful solutions,remove distractions and increase momentum for building a more closer China-ASEAN community of shared future.
The “Belt and Road” Initiative（BRI） requires a set of high standard international economic and trade rules, which serve as a guideline for pooling the strength of countries along the BRI, and for facilitating cooperation and resolving differences among them. As far as the current rules relating to the BRI in the fields of trade, finance and investment, taxation, intellectual property rights, dispute settlement and other fields are concerned, there are still inadequacies in light of the need of the BRI: fragmentation, obsoleteness and unadaptability, occurrence of US-style discriminatory rules in unilateral and regional forms,difficulty in initiating reform of WTO multilateral rules, incompetent guarantee mechanism for debt sustainability, and lack of digital trade rules, as well as uneven status of the rule of law in countries along the BRI. In the event of ill-preparedness of the international economic and trade rules for the high-quality development of the BRI, it is necessary to innovate and improve the rules on the basis of the existing mechanisms and rules with a practice-guided approach, to guide cooperation, promote exchanges, standardize actions, and resolve differences, and promote the high-quality development of the BRI with the goal of building an inclusive and complex international economic and trade rule system.
Today’s human society is facing a series of huge and serious challenges. New global situations and problems are emerging in an endless stream. The world has entered a new period of turbulence and change. China’s development has also entered a period of coexistence of strategic opportunities, risk, challenges, and increased uncertainties. Facing the comprehensive strategic containment, competition and confrontation of the United States, a very important strategic idea of China is to rebuild the current and future international environment,especially the surrounding areas. China has the foundation and experience to create a good international environment around it, and should regard the reconstruction of the international environment around it as the focus of China’s diplomatic strategy and foreign policy. We should implement China’s concept of neighboring diplomacy, achieve “people to people connectivity”, rely on the “the Belt and Road” initiative platform, build a community with a shared future in the neighborhood, and create a better external environment for achieving socialist modernization and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
The intergovernmental negotiations on marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction（ BBNJ） have entered a vital stage. During the fifth intergovernmental conference that concluded in August 2022,delegations started to compromise on certain issues and new characteristics appeared. Although divergent views from different delegations remained,many delegations stated that their positions are flexible indicating that the real divergence is decreasing. The key divergences that concern China’s national interest and might relate to whether next negotiation could reach a deal include four issues. They are monetary benefit sharing of marine generic resources,identification of area-based management tools and disputed maritime areas,decision making mechanisms,and dispute settlement procedures. From the perspective of China,the existing provisions under BBNJ draft agreements cannot satisfy China’s national interest,and it is challenging for China to change this disadvantageous situation in the forthcoming negotiation.
The disposal of marine wastes in Northeast Asia is characterized by complexity,universality and cross-border,so it is necessary to strengthen regional cooperation and governance.The existing international conventions on marine waste disposal and relevant bilateral and multilateral agreements,plans and other relevant cooperation provisions in the Northeast Asia region provide a certain legal basis for the cooperative governance of marine waste disposal in Northeast Asia. However, due to the lack of special agreements on the cooperative governance of marine waste disposal in Northeast Asia,which are only covered in relevant provisions,and the differences in the domestic law authorization of countries in the region,there are certain defects in relevant legislation and cooperation mechanisms,which affect the development and effectiveness of relevant cooperation. In this regard,the relevant countries in Northeast Asia should work with the international community to improve the international legal system on marine waste disposal,so as to better provide effective institutional supply for the cooperative governance of marine waste disposal in the region. In this process,China should actively participate in the construction of laws and regulations on the cooperative governance of marine waste disposal in Northeast Asia,and contribute to the Chinese plan for maintaining the good order of marine waste disposal in Northeast Asia.
South Korea is a typical land-sea composite country in Northeast Asia, while Japan is the only maritime country in Northeast Asia. The maritime security strategies of South Korea and Japan has an impact on the strategic pattern of seapower in Northeast Asia. In recent years, both countries have increased resource investment in the marine sector. As an important issue in Korea-Japan relations, maritime disputes have become increasingly prominent.Maritime disputes, in turn, encourage South Korea and Japan to strengthen their maritime armed forces, which increases the risk of military friction between the two countries. In terms of comparison of naval strategies, there are big differences between South Korea and Japan in operational environment, operational objects, fleet structure, troop composition and concept of operation. These differences could lead to a spillover effect, which could accelerate the U. S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and put forward higher requirements for the capabilities of the PLA Navy. In essence, the differences in security strategies between South Korea and Japan are the result of their different strategic positioning and strategic capabilities. Such differences have a long-term impact on the conflict of seapower between South Korea and Japan and the maritime strategic pattern in Northeast Asia.
Scientific and technological innovation and its diffusion mode are the core driving force that triggers changes in the international landscape and global order. Under the new round of scientific and technological revolution, science and technology have become the main battlefield of the great power game and the national strategic layout, and the status of science and technology diplomacy in the overall national diplomacy has been rising. The discursive evolution and historical behavior of science and technology diplomacy in developed countries show that the essence of science and technology diplomacy is the state practices adjusting the transnational flow of knowledge according to the overall strategic needs. Developed countries such as the United States, Britain, Germany, France, and Japan seek transnational modes of knowledge flow that benefit themselves from the aspects of strategy formulation, coordination mechanisms, action networks, and actor participation, and serve their overall national strategic interests. Under the new international situation, China should improve the positioning of science and technology diplomacy in overall diplomacy, accelerate the formulation of science and technology diplomacy strategy, explore the establishment of a coordination mechanism for science and technology diplomacy, build an ecological network of science and technology diplomacy, strengthen the capacity building of science and technology diplomacy, strive to shape a pattern of global flow of knowledge that is conducive to China, and make greater contributions to the realization of the second centenary goal.
Since the implementation of the US’s Indo-Pacific Strategy,the academia has increasingly focused on the tendency of the NATO-ization of the Indo-Pacific Region. Previous literature in this regard has put much emphasis on explaining the cause of such tendency in the background of the Ukraine Crisis,while ignoring the underlying policy consistency of it to a large extent. This essay argues that,to fully interpret the origination of the NATO-ization of the Indo-Pacific Region,it is necessary to further explore into the evolution of US security policy in a broader context. Besides,there are at least three key aspects that has to be taken into consideration,if we are to better understand the essence of such tendency,namely,the US’s pro-NATO security outlook on the Indo-Pacific region; the path-dependency of US’s policy-making in terms of maintaining relations with countries within the Indo-Pacific regions,as well as the stereotype that the US uphold while interfering into regional affairs of the Indo-Pacific. From the perspective of China,the in-depth discussion of the essence,performances and impacts of the NATO-ization of the Indo-Pacific Region can be beneficial for decision-makers to figure out solutions to deal with possible uncertainties in the future evolution of the regional order,and the negative impacts brought by the ongoing China-US strategic competition.
At present, the traditional balance of public opinion in Japan is being broken. The“publicization” of the right-leaning bias means that the bias has shifted from a “competitive standpoint” to “prerequisites” and “rules” of media, constituting a long-term influence on the direction of public opinion. This change is particularly evident in media issues involving foreign relations. Taking the Japanese public opinion on the East China Sea issue as the object of observation, we can analyze the scheme of the “publicization” trend. It includes three crucial factors. First, it is the Japanese government’s use of agenda setting to mold the “security threat” as the “self-evident” premise in public opinion. Second, the right-wing have downplayed their own bias in issue-framing and emphasized universality instead, successfully dominate public opinion. Finally, the development of the Internet, popular culture and youth subculture has brought about the transformation of the public opinion space dominated by the mainstream media, and the right-wing have laid out these channels early and have a firstmover advantage in the process of transformation.
The once-in-a-century pandemic and traditional security risks are intertwined. The global governance system and the international pattern are accelerating their adjustment. The factors that affect the balance of power among countries,the transformation of competitive advantages and the adjustment of the international order are more complex and diverse. Historical transformation and adjustment have become a new trend in the international strategic pattern. The crisis in Ukraine and the United States’ strategy of“competition,conflict and cooperation”with China have brought the confrontation between major powers back to world politics. The evolution of the international pattern has made regional conflicts possible in the Asia Pacific region,and the regional security situation is facing a new round of changes. This not only brings major challenges to China’s new journey toward the Second Centenary Goal,but also provides opportunities for China to lead the world with prosperity and stability. We should deeply understand and grasp the evolution rules and development trends of the international pattern,actively promote regional cooperation and order building,promote China’s high-quality development and high-standard opening up,and inject valuable confidence and strength into a troubled world.
China is a major power in the Asia-Pacific region and a country with global influence.Therefore the United States always observes and analyzes China in its overall situation of national security strategy, international strategic pattern and the strategic situation in the AsiaPacific region, and accordingly formulate its policy towards China and determine the trend of Sino-US relations. The interaction between China and the United States also has a significant impact on the formulation and implementation of US National Security Strategy. During the Cold War, the US policy towards China and Sino-US relations was determined by its national security strategy of containment against the Soviet Union, especially the state of relations between China and the Soviet Union. During the post-cold war era, the US alternatively pursued the policies of engagement and restriction towards China according to its national security strategy of “establishing a new world order” and global counter-terrorism. With the rapid rise of China and certain progress made in the global anti-terrorism, there are more and more issues related to China in US national security strategy. Since the United States has believed that China’s development threatens its leading position in the world, the Trump administration and the Biden administration have regarded China as the adversary of strategic competition according to US national security strategy of strategic competition among major powers.
区域国别研究亟待实现思维认知创新,从认识论层面探寻深化区域国别研究的创新路径具有重要的学理价值.区域国别研究者通过树立整体思维,基于宏观视角、通盘考量和广阔视野进行学术考察,才能为人类化解各种危机提供具有可行性的解决方案.打破学科壁垒,运用跨学科的研究方法,推崇跨界思维方式,实现相关学科的交叉融合,进而为深入推动区域国别研究寻找创新的学术增长点.通过纵向的历时性发展的时间脉络与横向的共时性同享的空间场域的有机结合,有利于对民情国情有异、利益诉求不同的研究对象的发展动向作出科学研判.面对波谲云诡的国际新形势、全球治理涌现的新问题以及气候变化呼吁新变革等复杂议题,宜保持开放思维,积极回应时代诉求,依托坚实的学理基础,从而为区域国别研究的范式转换及方法创新提供助力.
中韩两国的海洋管辖权主张有相似性,主张的领海、毗连区、专属经济区宽度和大陆架外部界限一致,但基线的使用存在差异.中韩自2015年启动海域划界谈判迄今,双方已开展两轮副部长级和九轮司局级谈判,两国似乎已经就不涉及第三方主张的第一阶段划界对象海域的范围达成一致.与此同时,双方在黄海南部的海域划界谈判也面临一些挑战,双方对三阶段方法中哪些因素应该成为影响划界的有关情况存在分歧,对对方部分岛礁划界效力存在质疑,对渔业资源、苏岩礁(离於岛)管辖权存在争议.如果中韩在黄海南部海域划界采用三阶段方法,在三阶段方法的第二阶段,中国需力主存在需要调整或移动临时等距离线的有关情况,力争将临时等距离线向韩国一侧做调整.未来两国要顺利完成海域划界谈判,还需要综合考虑法律、政治和经济因素.
随着二战后日本官方发展援助项目的出台及全球化浪潮的兴起,日本非政府组织得到了迅速发展,并与日本政府形成了固定的合作机制.作为日本与缅甸特殊外交关系中的重要一环,日本非政府组织因循日缅关系的发展轨迹,在具体运作中秉持"软援助"价值理念,对应缅甸社会的实际需求,发挥了促进缅甸民生与发展、塑造规范与价值、监督与制约政府决策、引导与调解官方外交等功能.非政府组织弥补了日本官方外交的职能缺陷,在日本的区域战略与软实力建设中发挥了重要作用,同时也给中国非政府组织的建设及参与全球治理以启迪.
2022年中 日迎来邦交正常化50周年.1972年的中 日复交,是在中美和解的有利条件下,两国决策层通过原则性与灵活性高度结合的外交谈判而实现的"双赢"成果.冷战后,影响中 日关系的国际环境、两国国内条件以及相互作用方式都发生了深刻变化,导致两国关系由"蜜月期"转入"重新调整期",从而呈现一种结构性特征——"趋冷"与"回暖"局面交替出现的周期性波动.21世纪20年代初,中 日关系面临逆水行舟般的复杂局面,其未来是重复"趋冷—回暖"周期性波动,还是倒退到疑似复交前双边架构的"准冷战"状态,抑或经过多年磨合而出现堪称2.0版"1972年体制"的某种新型关系框架?对两国关系面临的这三种可能前景,需要继续予以关注.
随着美国"印太战略"逐步走深走实,东南亚对美战略价值日益凸显.美国与东南亚军事关系是美印太布局的重要组成部分.美国着眼应对中国"挑战"和推动重建盟友和伙伴关系等目标来谋划其对东南亚政策,并以此指导其与东南亚军事关系的发展."印太战略"背景下美国与东南亚军事关系呈现一些突出动向和特点,如聚焦提升东南亚国家海上安全能力特别是海上态势感知能力,着力加强与东南亚各国军事互操作性,以签订基地准入协议、轮换部署、动态部署等方式强化在东南亚兵力布势,将网络、太空、"灰色地带"等领域合作作为军事合作新增长点,积极推动形成美主导的东南亚军事关系网络等.美国与东南亚军事关系若持续强化,将给中国周边安全特别是南海安全环境带来不利影响.
第二次世界大战后,国际海洋法在传统海洋强国与第三世界国家间长期博弈的背景下继续发展,日本亦开始重视基于国际海洋法规则维护其海洋权益.战后日.本面临的客观条件,使其在维持经济安全方面得益于传统海洋强国所主张的"海洋自由",也使其在国土安全层面对这种"海洋自由"存在顾虑.长期以来,日本对其安全利益进行权衡,在选择追随美国等传统海洋强国关于"海洋自由"主张的同时,对于涉及国土安全利益的国际海洋法规则,则刻意采取了模糊处理的策略,以最大化其国家利益.随着国际局势的变化,日本采取的这种模糊策略开始面临现实压力.日本虽然于2014年提出了"海洋法治"概念,但其实践国际海洋法的策略难题依旧存在,对于关键规则的解释与实践仍显模糊与保守.
国家在一般情况下可以通过加入国际组织或条约的方式,将一部分主权权利自主有限让渡给某一组织或者某一合作关系的国家,通过参与合作的途径共享这一部分主权权利,以实现国家利益的最大化.美国自2019年起派遣海岸警卫队到南海地区活动,以作为与中国对抗的新手段.考虑到美国海岸警卫队在南海活动的现状,结合我国《海警法》颁布产生的影响,美国未来很有可能与南海沿岸国签订"随船观察员协定",获得所谓"专属经济区"的管辖权并以此进行渔业执法.针对美国在南海可能展开的新行动,我国宜将南海沿岸国列为让渡其所谓"专属经济区"管辖权的重点观察对象,与南海周边国家签订双边协定,展开友好合作,完善《海警法》的配套措施,以维护我国在南海的固有权利和主张.
2021年8月阿富汗塔利班在被推翻20年后再次成为政权的执掌者.这与美国将战略目标从"以反恐为中心"转向"以大国竞争为中心"不无关系,而更深层的原因则是阿富汗国内政治生态变化导致的.价值累加理论提出社会运动是由结构性有利条件、结构性紧张、概化信念的形成和散播、诱发因素、参与者的行动动员以及社会控制的运作等因素顺序叠加而成.从价值累加理论审视作为一种政治伊斯兰现象的塔利班在阿富汗生成和发展的原因及对地区和国际社会的影响,能够为研判塔利班执政前景及对政治伊斯兰的影响提供另一种新的解释框架和理论视角.塔利班的未来发展走向,将在很大程度上影响甚至决定阿富汗的未来,这也是国际社会关注阿富汗局势发展中的焦点问题.
