According to Victor Fuchs(1968),the cyclical fluctuations in output and employment in the industrial sector are larger than those in the service sector.This implies that as the proportion of the service sector increases,the cyclical fluctuations of the overall economy will tend to decrease,which has been confirmed by the performance of the real economy.Why does the growth of the service sector lead to a reduction in economic fluctuations?This paper intends to explore this issue from the perspective of production networks. Theoretically,we propose a general equilibrium model with a production network to understand the mechanism by which the growth of the service sector affects economic fluctuations,and develop two interrelated theoretical hypotheses.First,when the elasticities of substitution between primary inputs and intermediate inputs are greater than those between different intermediate inputs,lower sparsity of production networks will lead to smaller economic fluctuations.Second,a rising proportion of the service sector will cause declining sparsity of production networks,via an increase in the shares of primary inputs and final consumption,with the former reflecting the growing role of the service sector as a user of pri-mary inputs and the latter reflecting the increased role of the service sector as a provider of final goods. Empirically,we employ nearly 30 years of global input-output data to conduct empirical tests based on a simultane-ous equation econometric model.The benchmark regression results show that a 10％increase in the proportions of pri-mary inputs and final consumption in the service sector will reduce production network sparsity by 0.42％-1.34％,while a 10％reduction in production network sparsity will result in a decrease of 0.79-1.56 units in economic fluctuations.This suggests that the growth of the service sector with rises in the proportions of primary inputs and final consumption can lower production network linkage sparsity,and thus iron out economic fluctuations.This basic conclusion remains valid after a series of endogeneity and robustness tests.A counterfactual analysis for China indicates that if the service sector share,intermediate input share,and service productivity volatility in China are replaced with those in the USA,re-spectively,China's aggregate economic fluctuations would experience varying degrees of decrease.However,changing the service sector share and the Intermed,ate input share contribute more(69.8％and 73.6％). This study has significant policy implications.In China,the current service sector share in the national economy is significantly lower than that of developed market economies,which not only hinders the optimization and upgrading of economic and industrial structures but also constrains the further development of Chinese overall economy.As this re-search shows,the backwardness of the service sector also leads to an increase in the sparsity of production networks,fur-ther resulting in larger economic fluctuations.Substantial economic fluctuations not only raise the cost of structural ad-justments and worsen expectations for sustainable economic growth but also generate global spillover effects through ex-ternal economic and trade channels,thus exacerbating the external development environment.Conversely,we can reduce the sparsity of production networks and smooth out significant economic fluctuations by increasing the primary input share(or employment)and the final consumption share of the service sector.Therefore,it is both urgent and strategically profound to take active measures to promote the comprehensive development of the service sector. First,we should properly handle the relationship among economic growth,structural changes,and economic fluctua-tions.It is crucial to continuously optimize the structure and reduce economic fluctuations in the process of economic de-velopment and growth. Second,we should take effective measures to promote the healthy,efficient,and sustained development of the ser-vice sector.These include improving the institutional mechanisms of the service sector,breaking administrative monopo-lies,fostering market competition,balancing the development of different service sectors,as well as adapting to the global trend of service liberalization,and becoming a contributor to multilateral rules in service trade. Third,we should correctly deal with the relationship between the service sector and other sectors,especially the manufacturing sector.It is necessary to improve the development quality and efficiency of the service sector,so as to bet-ter serve the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector and shape a congenial development pattern,which can ultimately enhance the resilience and security level of the industrial and supply chains. Lastly,we should leverage the framework or perspective of economic networks to comprehend the impact of the growth of the service sector on economic fluctuations.It is imperative to contextualize the development of the service sec-tor within the broader framework of overall economic development both domestically and internationally,rather than con-sidering it in isolation.The economic networks should not be confined to a single country but extend their reach on a global scale.Only in this way can domestic service enterprises grow bigger and get stronger to consolidate the micro foundation of the service sector development.
Data is the primary factor of production in the digital economy, playing a role in promoting the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy and smoothing the national economic cycle. After entering the circulation system of the real economy, data is rapidly integrated into production, circulation, consumption, distribution, and other links. It optimizes resource allocation, unblocks circulation channels, promotes accurate matching of supply and demand, stimulates emerging demand, and forms a virtuous circle of digital technology application, traditional physical enterprise transformation, and technological innovation. Integrated development is an important feature of the digital economy. Data promotes the integration of factors of production, products, enterprises, industries, and markets, which fosters a circular system with deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy. To promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, the government and business entities should take measures to improve the circular efficiency of the digital economy and the real economy. These measures include attaching importance to the role of data-driven development, improving data capacity, data development, and utilization in enterprises, exploring diverse circulation models of enterprise data, and creating typical application scenarios and industrial data spaces.
Based on the panel data of 204 cities from 2008 to 2020, the study first uses the mixed OLS model and two-way fixed effect model to verify the direct impact of tourism on the urban-rural income gap. Next, we employ the instrumental variable method, as well as estimation methods such as 2SLS and GMM, to test for endogeneity problem present in the study. Furthermore, the mediating effect model is used to examine the mechanism through which tourism affects the urban-rural income disparity. The findings indicate that rural infrastructure acts as an intermediary between tourism development and the reduction of the urban-rural income disparity. Furthermore, the impact of tourism on narrowing the income gap seems to diminish gradually from the western regions to the eastern ones.
Industry interaction is becoming an important approach to promoting high-quality economic development. In this paper, the multi-sector general equilibrium model is developed to clarify the theoretical mechanism among industry interaction, structure transformation, and high-quality economic development; the empirical tests are carried out based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017; and the empowerment paths for digital technologies are explored to drive high-quality economic development. The findings are as follows. (1) The industry interaction can promote high-quality economic development in China on the whole, but it shows a significant imbalance and a healthy two-way promotion mode have not been formed. (2) The impact of industry interaction on high-quality economic development is significantly heterogeneous at the sector and regional levels. (3) The current unhealthy industry interaction may widen the productivity gap between manufacturing and service sectors, and transform China’s economic into service-oriented structure, thus leading the economic development to a vicious circle of “low efficiency to low-end servitization and further to lower efficiency,” and hindering the sustainability of high-quality economic development. (4) Digital technologies can break the development dilemma and achieve high-quality economic development by alleviating structural contradictions, boosting healthy industry interaction, and narrowing the productivity gap among sectors. The conclusions provide empirical evidence for the government to promote the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service sectors and achieve high-quality economic development.
本文从经济政策不确定性视角,探究在不确定性宏观经济环境下企业是否会强化数字化转型应对外部环境不确定性.以2013-2019年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,探讨了经济政策不确定性对企业数字化转型的具体影响与内在机理.研究结果表明:第一,经济政策不确定性对企业数字化转型产生正向驱动效应,即经济政策不确定性是不确定性环境下企业数字化转型的重要政策因素,经济政策不确定性下企业主动拥抱数字化转型,在系列稳健性检验后研究结论依然成立.第二,经济政策不确定性有助于强化企业创新研发并促进企业数字化转型,推动数字技术驱动的企业数字创新发展;且经济政策不确定性有助于强化企业数字化转型并最终促进企业创新绩效,这足以说明经济政策不确定性下企业数字化转型的创新赋能效应.第三,经济政策不确定性对企业数字化转型的影响效应在非国有产权、非政治关联与市场化强度更低的地区中更强.
2022年,在疫情多发散发、俄乌冲突、极端天气等超预期因素冲击下,我国经济下行压力加大.2022年我国经济实现3.0％的增长实属不易.本文运用统计指标和统计数据从生产、需求、收入、价格四个角度对2022年经济运行的基本特点进行提炼与分析,概括当前经济发展面临的主要挑战和有利条件,并对2023年的经济发展形势进行展望.初步判断,2023年我国GDP增速预计在5.5％～6.0％.
在数字经济时代,算法技术结合大数据和机器学习后已被应用于自动化或辅助决策、精准匹配和趋势预测等诸多生产或管理活动中.伴随其在商业和公共管理等领域的广泛深刻运用,因算法权利异化导致的算法滥用问题逐渐受到人们的担忧和重视.算法滥用存在针对不同主体的诸多现实或潜在的危害与弊端,足以影响到数字经济的健康可持续发展.因此,数字经济时代引致出针对算法进行规制和监管的需求.不同于传统的规制和监管的范式与手段,针对算法进行规制监管存在诸多问题与挑战.通过分析当前典型的算法规制思路与治理范式,结合算法规制监管的实施特点和痛点难点,本文针对性地提出建立以广义算法公开为基础的分场景算法审查、监管和评议的综合技术规制框架;建立在算法伦理基础上的外部监管问责、平台责任义务相结合的法规体系;建立以个体数据赋权为主要形式的健全维权途径、强化维权意识和配置个人算法权利的数据主体算法权利保障;建立算法设计主体价值与算法相关主体价值收敛协同发展、强化算法设计者社会责任的具体实现路径,以图探求适合中国数字经济背景下的算法规制体系建设思路.
According to history and practice, it can be inferred that the success of Chinese path to modernization can almost be attributed to the principle that theory applied in our country kept adapting to practice. Currently, the objective of Chinese modernization has evolved from building a moderately prosperous society in all respects to pursuing common prosperity for all people. New practices, however, bring new opportunities and challenges, which call for us to make adaptation and update to the modernization theory. In light of this challenging landscape, it is crucial to improve and innovate the theoretical framework of Chinese modernization by synthesizing the experience of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects with the new objectives of the next stage. Additionally, we will explore new avenues for achieving Chinese modernization from the perspective of high-quality development, to shed new lights on the path of global modernization.
The concept of "macro view on food" puts forward higher requirements for China’s food supply, which is an important strategy to cope with the shortage of resources and the increase of people’s needs for a better life. However, there are obvious differences in food gap estimation results in China, and the theory of food security and resource security is not clear, which is not conducive to in-depth understanding and practice of "macro view on food". From the perspective of dietary nutrition, this paper estimates the main food supply and demand gaps in China from the perspectives of production, consumption and nutrition,draws the gap matrix, and further calculates the virtual land resources and water resources gaps under the food gap. It is found that there are at least four types of food gap in China, among which the "double shortage of production and demand" of beans and milk and "insufficient production" of edible vegetable oil, meat and eggs are the key weaknesses. In the long term, there are two hidden dangers in food supply: uneven nutrition and insufficient resource support capacity. This paper argues that under the "macro view on food", food security and resource security are unity. It is necessary to ensure both food and resource security,not only to guide residents’ nutritional consumption and improve the structure of food supply and demand, but also to expand territorial space resources, reduce the pressure of arable land and water resources, and ensure the sustainable utilization of resources.
使用2011-2020年中国284个地级以上城市数据,经验检验数字普惠金融对城市经济差距的综合影响.研究发现:数字普惠金融能够显著缩小城市经济差距,且地理区位和制度环境会诱致该平衡发展作用产生异质性;创新创业对数字普惠金融缩小城市经济差距具有中介传导作用,表现为数字普惠金融能够促进城市创新创业,间接缩小城市经济差距;要素集聚对数字普惠金融缩小城市经济差距具有正向调节效应,即人才、资金和技术集聚程度提升会削弱数字普惠金融的平衡发展作用.基于研究结论,提出适度超前推进数字基础设施建设、挖掘数字普惠金融应用场景、加快以区域一体化为核心的制度创新等政策建议.
将创新型城市建设视为一项"准自然"实验,基于2008-2021年中国272个地级及以上城市面板数据,应用多时点双重差分模型考察创新型城市建设对数字全球价值链参与的影响.研究发现:整体来看,创新型城市建设可提升数字全球价值链参与水平,这一结果在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立.异质性检验结果表明,创新型城市建设对中小规模、沿海区域及低市场化程度城市参与数字全球价值链的作用效果更为显著.作用机制检验结果表明,创新型城市建设主要通过缓解要素结构错配、前沿数字技术追赶以及服务贸易结构升级对数字全球价值链参与产生推动作用.基于上述结论,提出全面深化创新型城市战略点布局、推动城际数字经济联动格局建设、统筹构建城际数据统一要素市场的政策建议,为高水平建设创新型城市,提升国际数字价值链地位提供新思路.
在构建新基建发展水平与经济韧性水平评价指标体系的基础上,运用耦合协调度模型、标准差椭圆与重心迁移模型、空间计量模型方法,探讨2011-2021年中国31个省域新基建与经济韧性耦合协调度的时空演化特征及驱动因素.结果表明:①中国新基建发展水平呈逐年攀升的时序演化特征;中国经济韧性水平呈"逐年增长—短期下降—延续回升"的时序演化特征.②观测期内中国新基建与经济韧性的耦合协调度不断攀升;在空间上,二者耦合协调度总体呈由东向西递减的空间演化特征,发展渐趋均衡化,且二者耦合协调度重心向西北方向移动.③虚拟集聚、投资规模、教育禀赋均正向驱动本地区二者耦合协调度的提升,政府干预、人力资本对本地区二者耦合协调度起到负向作用;投资规模、政府干预产生正向空间溢出效应,虚拟集聚、人力资本产生负向空间溢出效应,教育禀赋的空间溢出效应则不显著.
生态风险的持续累积使得城市越来越脆弱,城市更新所带来生态系统抵抗力、适应力和恢复力的变化,成为生态韧性的重要影响因素.在梳理城市更新对生态韧性影响机理的基础上,基于2006-2020年环长株潭城市群8个地级市的样本数据,运用基于博弈论的组合赋权、TOPSIS模型、因子分析等方法,探究政府主导型与社会参与型城市更新对生态韧性的影响效应.研究结果表明:①2006-2020年环长株潭城市群生态韧性区域差异整体减小,空间分布呈现聚集态势.②政府主导型城市更新对环长株潭城市群生态韧性有抑制作用,加强环境规制、增大科教投入、调整产业结构有助于生态韧性的提升.③城市更新社会关注、城市更新社会行动和城市更新社会认可是社会参与型城市更新的主要因子,高密度、高强度的城市更新社会关注将抑制环长株潭城市群生态韧性的提升,而城市更新社会行动则有助于提高生态韧性,城市更新对生态系统恢复力的影响作用尚不明确.
以我国2009-2021年A股非金融上市公司为样本,研究实体企业金融资产持有行为对企业创新的影响,并重点对市场竞争在其中起到的调节作用进行了考察.结果表明:实体企业持有金融资产显著挤出了企业创新,而市场竞争在其中起到了正面的调节作用.随着竞争程度的提高,金融化对创新的挤出作用逐渐减弱,但随着竞争程度超过适度竞争情形,金融化对创新的挤出作用逐渐增强,亦即相较于高竞争和高垄断情形,适度的市场竞争能够更好地减弱金融化对企业创新的挤出作用.机制分析表明,高竞争或高垄断情形均会加剧企业的金融逐利动机,从而使得金融化更显著地挤出创新.金融化对企业创新的挤出作用在国有企业、低盈利企业和低成长企业中更强,而市场竞争的调节作用则更明显地出现在非国有企业、高盈利企业和高成长企业.研究为从市场竞争角度治理实体企业的脱实向虚问题提供了政策思路.
基于2009-2020年中国282个地级以上城市的面板数据,分析了通达性的改善对我国城市空间效率影响及作用机制.研究发现:(1)通达性的改善能够促进城市空间效率提升,且可以有效吸引劳动力与资本的集聚,促进城市土地要素的有效利用;(2)城市通达性对城市空间效率的直接促进作用大于通过要素集聚作用于城市空间效率的间接促进作用;(3)分城市规模和经济禀赋来看,城市通达性的变化对大规模城市和贫困地区城市的城市空间效率影响程度分别大于对中小规模城市和非贫困地区城市的影响程度.因此,加快交通基础设施建设,促进城市间互联互通,激发要素集聚的中介效应,将有助于中国城市高效率发展.
文章在探讨环境规制对旅游高质量发展影响机理的基础上,基于2002-2021年湘西地区市域面板数据,刻画了环境规制与旅游高质量发展的时间演进过程,运用系统GMM模型、中介效应模型、调节机制模型等实证检验环境规制对旅游高质量发展水平的影响、传导机制及调节机制.研究发现:①2002-2021年旅游高质量发展水平呈现稳步上升态势;环境规制以2010年为节点分两阶段变化,第一阶段各市(州)环境规制力度逐渐增强,第二阶段环境规制先骤降,后进入缓冲期进而飞速发展.②环境规制对旅游高质量发展水平具有显著促进作用,其每提升1个单位,旅游高质量发展相应提升0.0967个单位;旅游高质量发展水平具有"滚雪球"特征.③环境规制能通过信息化水平促进旅游高质量发展,信息化水平每提升1个单位,旅游高质量发展水平相应提升0.6939个单位;人力资本与城镇化均在整个影响过程中起调节作用.因此,要因地制宜加强环境规制监管、完善环境规制手段,着重推动人力资本培育,加快城镇化建设进程,加强区域间合作联系,建立环境共同治理机制.
文章基于中心—外围模型的人口加权变异系数二重分解法对2011-2019年中国23个省域的数字金融不平衡进行测度和分解,揭示其空间和结构来源,并进一步考察了数字金融不平衡及其分解项的经济效应.研究发现:①样本期内,大多数省域数字金融不平衡程度呈波动性下降趋势,但近年出现一定的反弹趋势;②中心和外围区域间的数字金融不平衡是各省域数字金融不平衡的主要空间来源,数字金融覆盖广度不平衡是其主要结构来源,集中效应是导致历年数字金融不平衡变化的主要原因;③数字金融不平衡及其分解项对经济增长具有先促进后抑制的非线性效应.研究丰富了关于发展不平衡不充分问题的探讨,有利于明确各省域数字金融不平衡的程度、空间来源、结构来源以及经济增长效应,为进一步促进省域数字金融均衡发展提供借鉴思路.
使用长江经济带78个地级市2005-2020年面板数据,从创新驱动、协调发展、绿色低碳、对外开放以及成果共享5个方面构建高质量发展的评价体系,使用熵权TOPSIS法对其高质量发展进行测度,随后运用交互效应模型、面板门槛模型分析了异质型环境规制对长江经济带高质量发展的影响及其差异效应,探讨了异质型环境规制与高质量发展的关系.研究发现:①长江经济带高质量发展为波动上升的态势,但上中下游高质量发展呈现东高西低的发展格局.②异质型环境规制对高质量发展存在非线性的直接影响,强制命令型和市场激励型存在双重门槛效应,其中强制命令型对长江经济带高质量发展的影响呈倒"U"型,市场激励型影响呈"U"型;公众参与型仅存在单一门槛效应,对高质量发展表现为正向促进作用.此外,强制命令型与市场激励型,强制命令型与公众参与型存在交互效应,协同促进高质量发展.③异质型环境规制对高质量发展的影响也存在区域差异性.
城市现代化是中国式现代化的先导,定量测度中国式城市现代化水平具有重要现实意义.文章基于中国式现代化的五大理论内涵构建多维测度体系,结合2008-2020年中国283个地级及以上城市的数据,对中国式城市现代化水平进行了实证测度,并分析其时空演绎规律.研究发现:①中国式城市现代化水平整体上稳步提升,可划分为领先型、潜在领先型、成长型、追赶型和起步型五大类型;②中国式城市现代化水平总体上呈现"东高西低"的梯度格局,南北差距不断扩大,各维度发展也存在不均衡问题;③区域间差异是中国式城市现代化水平空间分异的主要来源,东部地区的区域内差异最大,东部—西部的区域间差异最大,总体水平的区域差异呈下降趋势;④中国式城市现代化水平具有显著的空间相关性,"东热西冷"空间分布相对稳定,热点区域"南进北退"及冷点区域"北进南退"的态势明显.基于此,提出中国式城市现代化水平的提升路径.
解析沿海省域国土空间规划下陆海统筹路径的共性与差异,对沿海地区国土空间合理开发利用与保护具有重要的理论与实践意义.文章以中国11个沿海省(区、市)为案例区,通过耦合模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA)和S-CAD政策评估方法,解析与归纳其国土空间规划下陆海统筹的路径.结果表明:①基于政策法律制定、生态环境保护、经济社会发展、陆海空间利用等因素进行组合分析可得16种潜在组合,其中3种条件变量组合能够解释省域陆海统筹路径.②国土空间规划下陆海统筹路径可归纳为3类,即政府政策引领型、生态环境保护型、经济社会发展型.③S-CAD政策评估结果显示,由于国土空间规划文本所涉内容不够全面,造成规划手段的一致性较低,规划制定应注重从政策制定者角度出发的政策目标、手段以及结果的一致性问题.此外,生态环境保护条件是影响国土空间规划与陆海统筹协同的关键基础性因素,对于陆海统筹政策效果提升有重要作用.
