Objective/Context: Security concerns in South America have been a central agenda item in regional political dialogue, thereby shaping state behavior as governments, faced with structural and conjunctural factors, establish alliances or instruments of cooperation in the field of defense. Given this agenda’s relevance, focusing on the role of domestic institutional agents reaffirms the importance of the political-bureaucratic model within foreign policy analysis (FPA), which conceives foreign policy as a public policy and, therefore, subject to the interpenetration of actors institutionally and hierarchically positioned. On this basis, this study aims to analyze, through the political-bureaucratic model of decision-making, the process of formulating the proposal for the South American Defense Council (CDS; Consejo de Defensa Suramericano) during the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva administration between 2006 and 2008. The central hypothesis is that, although the initiative depended decisively on the personal engagement of hierarchically positioned individuals, it was rendered viable by bureaucratic structures and institutional traditions that transcend the political-ideological conjuncture of the so-called “pink wave.” Methodology: Using a descriptive-analytical approach, this research is a theoretically oriented single-case study guided by documentary analysis of primary sources from public archival collections. The model is operationalized by identifying the actors involved, their prior preferences and resources, and reconstructing the bargaining processes through which resistances were overcome. Conclusion: The results of the analysis point to an institutional dynamic in which the individual aspirations of the actors involved in the formulation of the CDS were indispensable, revealing an innovation in the Brazilian behavioral pattern regarding regional defense coordination; nevertheless, such aspirations prevailed only because they were channeled through pre-existing bureaucratic structures and negotiation routines. Originality: Beyond its theoretical application, this study’s originality lies in its contribution to understanding the factors and particularities of the Brazilian case in creating a significant body for dialogue, cooperation, and coordination in defense, encompassing key regional security issues. It also proposes an alternative interpretation to explanations that attribute the emergence of the CDS primarily to the regional ideological situation
Objective/context: This article examines the transformation of South American regional governance in the 2010s, distinguishing between autonomist and subordinate governance. Methodology: The paper proposes a causal analytical model linking the political-ideological orientation of governments (independent variable) to the type of regional governance (dependent variable), with foreign policy orientation toward regionalism as an intervening variable. The model is operationalized through three dimensions: ideology, institutions, and geopolitical identity. Methodologically, the study uses Anckar’s (2008) Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) to comparatively analyze the cases of Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro’s government and Colombia under Iván Duque’s government. Conclusions: The article argues that the rise of conservative and neo-patriotic right-wing governments spurred a shift toward subordinate governance, characterized by foreign policies that prioritized alignment with the United States and rejected post-hegemonic regionalism. Originality: By introducing subordinate governance as an analytical category, the article contributes to debates on regional governance, South American regionalism, and foreign policy analysis and offers an analytical framework for explaining the region’s recent geopolitical transformations.
Objetivo/contexto: Este artigo analisa como se configuram o soft power e o soft disempowerment japonês no Brasil, em um cenário marcado pela crescente presença da China e da Coreia do Sul na América Latina. A pesquisa considera tanto agentes estatais (como Fundação Japão, Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Japonesa do Brasil, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science e Study in Japan) quanto agentes não estatais (associações culturais nipobrasileiras e redes de ex-bolsistas do governo japonês), reconhecendo que a influência japonesa no Brasil é produzida por uma rede híbrida de atores. O artigo parte da premissa de que essa atuação é estruturada por dinâmicas culturais específicas que permitem ao país manter relevância em um ambiente competitivo marcado pela presença chinesa e sul-coreana. Metodologia: A investigação adota abordagem qualitativa, fundamentada no interpretativismo. Foram realizadas revisão sistemática da literatura, análise documental e 18 entrevistas semiestruturadas com agentes estatais e não estatais envolvidos na promoção da atuação japonesa no Brasil. Os dados foram examinados por meio de análise temática com apoio do software Atlas.ti 25. Conclusões: Os resultados indicam que o soft power japonês no Brasil se estrutura em torno de três noções centrais: sessatakuma (rivalidade amigável), menimieanai (invisibilidade) e yokonarabi (avanço paralelo). Essas dinâmicas permitem ao Japão manter influência mesmo diante da expansão chinesa e sulcoreana, embora riscos de soft disempowerment persistam. Originalidade: O estudo contribui ao revelar como o soft power japonês opera em um país emergente com forte presença nikkei, destacando mecanismos de coexistência competitiva raramente explorados na literatura. Este artigo oferece um arcabouço interpretativo culturalmente situado, baseado em três categorias derivadas da cultura japonesa, que permite compreender mecanismos de coexistência competitiva e riscos de soft disempowerment no contexto brasileiro e aplicável a outras disputas de influência asiática na América Latina.
Objetivo/contexto: el 30 de diciembre del 2022, el presidente chileno Gabriel Boric concedió 13 indultos. Esta decisión generó rechazo tanto en la oposición como en la opinión pública, lo que ocasionó diversos efectos disruptivos para el Gobierno, la rotación ministerial fue el más importante. ¿Por qué generaron los indultos tales efectos? Este artículo señala que, bajo determinadas condiciones, la concesión de indultos incrementa el costo político para el gobierno. El objetivo es explicar el mecanismo causal que originó dicho incremento. Metodología: Este artículo utiliza el método de process tracing para identificar el mecanismo causal que conecta la concesión de indultos (input) con la rotación ministerial (output). A través del análisis secuencial de los acontecimientos y de la evidencia empírica disponible, se rastrean las fuerzas causales que explican cómo la decisión presidencial incrementó el costo político para el gobierno y desembocó en cambios ministeriales. Conclusiones: los resultados demuestran que el costo político se incrementó en dos momentos del mecanismo. Un primer momento determinado por la oposición legislativa y la ruptura de las negociaciones en torno a la Mesa de Seguridad. Y un segundo momento relacionado con el conflicto generado con el Poder Judicial. Originalidad: el indulto es un poder omitido en el estudio de la ciencia política latinoamericana. Por ende, el presente artículo es un aporte teórico que integra la literatura sobre pardon power con el concepto de costo político para explicar las consecuencias del indulto en el gobierno. A nivel metodológico, incorpora el process tracing como método para analizar los efectos políticos del indulto en las democracias de América Latina.
Objective/context: The article revisits the comparative analysis of the divergent development trajectories of the Global South in an international context marked by the growing centrality of this macro-region and the intensification of its internal interconnections. It examines how state configurations interact with a strategic triangle comprising the state, industrial-technological development, and regional productive integration. The study covers three historical periods—the long Sino-Asian predominance until the mid-nineteenth century, the rise of U.S. hegemony, and the systemic crisis of the 1970s—to explain how the persistence/disruption of this triangle shaped these trajectories. Methodology: It combines a historical-structural analysis with a multiscale comparative approach to assess (a) state-building trajectories and state capacities; (b) patterns of industrial-technological upgrading; and (c) modalities of regional productive integration. The empirical evidence draws on secondary literature and historical comparisons across the mentioned three periods: (1) early state formation and commercial integration in Sino-Asia vs. postcolonial fragmentation in Latin America; (2) state-led industrialization in Asia vs. Latin American “gruyère states”; and (3) contemporary divergences in directive capacity, industrialization, and regionalism. Conclusions: The comparative analysis indicates that the Sino-Asian region articulated strong states, advanced industrialization, and functional regional integration, while preserving margins of autonomy. Latin America, by contrast, experienced disarticulation, state weakening, reprimarization, and subordinated regionalisms. Originality: The article transcends isolated national comparisons and offers a relational, systemic interpretation of regional divergence, grounded in the articulation—or rupture—of the State-industrialization-regional integration triangle, providing insights for rethinking Latin America’s insertion into the twenty-first-century global system.
