This data feature presents an update (Version 4.0) to the Non-State Actor (NSA) data, which provide information on the characteristics of rebel groups in all state-rebel group dyads in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program/Peace Research Institute Oslo Armed Conflict Dataset (ACD). The previous version of the NSA data ended in 2011, and Version 4.0 extends coverage through 2024, adding more than 250 new dyad spells and aligning pre-2011 data with Version 25.1 of the ACD. The added period is a consequential one for the study of conflict: the number of conflicts and conflict fatalities have risen substantially, while international conflict management efforts have declined. We describe the coding process and present descriptive analyses showing marked increases in rebel strength relative to the government and in rebel territorial control over the post-2011 period. We also discuss applications of the data to research on rebel governance and violence against civilians, two areas where scholarship has grown substantially since the data were last updated. The update further allows the range of data projects built on the NSA to be extended, supporting research on how the changing character of contemporary conflict shapes its dynamics and outcomes.
This article introduces the Peace Observatory, a new global dataset that captures over 10,000 rounds of peace negotiations in interstate, intrastate, and non-state conflicts between 1989 and 2023 with regular updates planned for additional years. The Peace Observatory disaggregates peacemaking into distinct negotiation rounds. To demonstrate the value of the dataset, the article examines how the involvement of autocratic states as mediators is associated with negotiation outcomes across different phases of the peace process. Unlike many existing datasets that operate at the conflict-year level and do not systematically distinguish between stages of peacemaking, the Peace Observatory records the specific phase of each negotiation round – prenegotiation, negotiation, or implementation. This enables analysis of whether mediator characteristics matter differently at distinct stages of the process. The analysis shows that autocratic involvement is positively associated with the conclusion of peace agreements during the negotiation phase, but not in the prenegotiation or implementation phase.
Existing scholarship on the legacies of state violence treats families as the primary vehicles through which repression shapes political behavior. Yet individuals are embedded in multiple social groups; a robust literature shows that both kin and non-kin relationships are consequential for political socialization. This paper examines the comparative effects of direct repression and the repression of family members, friends, and community members on subsequent political behavior. We draw on an original nationally representative survey of 1,200 adult Tunisians, supplemented by a targeted sample of 175 sibling pairs. We find that individuals who reported themselves or family members as repressed under the Ben Ali and Bourguiba dictatorships (1956–2011) are significantly more likely to report protest participation. Those who reported repressed friends and community members are more likely to report both recent protest attendance and electoral turnout. Analyses of the sibling pairs show that the relationship between repression of friends and communities and protest participation remains significant when controlling for unobservable family characteristics. Additional analyses indicate that political discussion with friends is a key mechanism through which repression’s behavioral effects are transmitted. These findings suggest that scholars who focus on familial networks risk underestimating the broader reach of repression’s political legacies.
Most research on the diversionary use of force focuses on timing of conflict initiation and target selection, often treating the public as passive observers ready to take the bait. This article challenges this assumption by examining how leaders strategically elevate foreign policy issues in public discourse before resorting to the use of force. We argue that economic downturns lead to anticipatory rhetorical agenda-setting, through which leaders increase the salience of foreign policy in shaping the conditions under which military actions become feasible. Using a large language model, we measure foreign policy salience in 29,286 US presidential addresses and remarks between 1945 and 2019. Combining these data with monthly inflation and US military interventions, we examine whether patterns in presidential rhetoric are consistent with a rhetorical pathway linking economic distress to the use of force. The results are consistent with our theoretical expectation. Higher inflation is associated with increased foreign policy salience in presidential speeches and heightened salience is, in turn, associated with a greater likelihood of military intervention, while inflation itself exhibits no robust direct relationship with the use of force. Our findings align with the expectation that diversionary dynamics may unfold as a mediated process in which leaders place greater rhetorical emphasis on foreign policy issues prior to the use of force. By highlighting the role of anticipatory agenda-setting, this study offers a nuanced perspective on diversionary conflict and highlights the importance of presidential rhetoric as a key component of foreign policy outcome.
NATO enlargement and Russian occupation of Crimea marked crucial turning points in the process that eventually resulted in the Ukraine war. According to one narrative, that Russian move was part of a plan to re-establish dominion over Eastern Europe. According to a rival view, it was an attempt to counter a U.S. plan to subjugate Russia. This paper scrutinizes the logical requirements of those narratives in a multi-stage game of incomplete information that produces equilibrium play such that first NATO is enlarged and then Russia attacks Ukraine. The two competing narratives correspond to two different separating equilibria. Conditions for their existence inform about the consistency and plausibility of the associated narratives.
