Recent reform in China has made a subset of Chinese stocks available to foreign investors, partially opening up China's stock market. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that this liberalization reform boosts investments in investable firms relative to noninvestable ones, with results robust to various sensitivity analyses. Besides capital inflows and risk sharing, a potential but underexplored channel is improved corporate governance due to direct and indirect pressures from foreign investors, which lowers the cost of capital and improves capital allocation efficiency. Consistent with this corporate governance channel, we find that the liberalization reform reduces investable firms’ agency costs, increases their investment efficiency and total factor productivity, and improves their operating performance. Further analysis finds that the positive investment effect from the liberalization reform is stronger among firms that were poorly governed before the reform.

In the context of the economy entering the new normal and promoting high-quality development,the role that the government should play is not only an important question that the academia urgently needs to an-swer,and but also one of the issues that policymakers and reform practitioners are most concerned about.This paper distinguishes between two different styles of governance:Pompous and steady,captured through text a-nalysis of government work reports.After verifying the rationality of this quantitative method,this study focu-ses on zombie firms,using the data of Chinese industrial enterprises as samples to empirically test the role played by the government's governance style.The study found that the more pompous the style of governance of local governments,the higher the degree of zombification of local enterprises.Further analysis reveals that when the social importance of zombie firms is higher or the difficulty of debt disposal is greater,the positive re-lationship between the pompous government governance style and the zombie firms is more pronounced.The existence of zombie enterprises not only distorts the market competition mechanism of survival of the fittest,but also damages the efficiency of market resource allocation.The research has practical significance for exploring how to transform government functions under the new normal,accelerating the implementation of bankruptcy,reorganization and revitalization of zombie enterprises,optimizing the allocation of market resources and achie-ving high-quality economic development.

为了考察全国性整体经济波动和地区性的经济波动对各地经济发展的不同贡献,该文基于中国地区化经济发展不平衡的现状,将Bayes动态隐变量模型引入中国宏观经济的研究.通过从可观测到的宏观经济变量中识别出隐含经济变量,该文将中国宏观经济的整体波动分解为3个部分:全国因子、地区因子和各经济变量独有的波动项.通过对中国经济在1980-2015年的变动历史的分析,发现地区的产出和投资主要受全国因子波动的影响,而地区消费的波动主要受地区因子的影响.另外,通过对中国“西部大开发”战略实施前后经济变动的分析,发现该战略提高了全国因子对西部地区的影响,特别是对投资影响最大.

小微企业贷款难是中国经济发展的顽疾,也是中国试图建设多层次资本市场的一个重要原因,而上市公司投资小额贷款公司提供了一种解决这个问题的市场化途径.通过投资小贷公司,上市公司拓宽了公司利润增长点,并通过隐性担保解决了银行与小微企业信息不对称问题,利用其在传统资本市场上的融资优势为小微企业提供了资金.本文基于所有沪深上市公司2008—2014年的年报及相关决议,手动收集了所有上市公司投资小额贷款公司的数据,通过Probit模型对上市公司投资小额贷款公司的行为进行研究,结果显示上市公司的投资意愿、投资能力、区域金融环境是影响上市公司投资小额贷款公司决策最重要的因素.

信用评级研究对于信息发现、资产定价和金融监管有重要的学术和应用价值.本文回顾了信用评级理论和实证研究文献.信用评级的主要功能包括信息发现,监督协调和监管区分.文献发现了几类重要的影响评级质量的因素:市场竞争与声誉机制,利益冲突,监管对评级的依赖和被评级产品的复杂性.本文探讨了如何从决利益冲突、监管方法以及评级方式等角度提升评级质量.

This paper manually collected data of analysts' recommendations published in the three largest Chinese security newspaper and investigates the potential investment value and market impact of media recommendations.Empirical results show that: 1) media recommendations have significant impacts on the trading behaviors of individual investors;2) there are significant negative abnormal returns after the release of media recommendations, which is particularly prominent in the bearish market;3) media recommendations affect the transfer of market wealth and lead to a direct loss of individual investors.Our study indicates that security analysts in the Chinese market have a poor ability in discovering market information and that there is a possibility of insider trading and interest transfer behavior in the emerging markets.

本文选取了2010年至2014年间上市公司作为收购方参与的并购事件,检验目标公司的私募机构投资背景是否会对收购方的短期并购绩效产生影响.运用事件研究法得到的结果表明,收购方的股票价格在并购公告发布之后显著上涨,如果目标公司具有私募背景,则收购方股价上涨幅度更大.进一步分析表明,当私募机构持股比例增加时,这一正向收益会下降.另外,私募投资机构的声誉对并购绩效没有显著的影响.本文对这些发现提出了一些可能的解释.

The upsurge of shadow banking is typically driven by rising financing demand from certain real sectors. In China, the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2009 was behind the rapid growth of shadow banking after 2012, expediting the development of Chinese corporate bond markets in the poststimulus period. Chinese local governments financed the stimulus through bank loans in 2009 and then resorted to nonbank debt financing after 2012 when faced with rollover pressure from bank debt coming due. Cross-sectionally, using a political-economy-based instrument, we show that provinces with greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more municipal corporate bond issuance during 2012–2015, together with more shadow banking activities including trustloans and wealth management products. China’s poststimulus experience exhibits similarities to financial market development during the US National Banking Era.

依赖出口的中国经济在2007-2008年全球金融危机中遭受重创,GDP增长率一度由2008年第三季度的9.5％跌落至2009年第一季度的6.4％.为刺激内需、避免经济硬着陆,国务院于2008年11月颁布了一项前所未有的"四万亿"经济刺激计划,涵盖民生工程、基础设施、生态环境建设和灾后重建等多个方面.该计划取得了立竿见影的效果,中国的GDP增速在2009年第四季度迅速恢复至11.9％的高增长率.

本文建立了考察金融基础设施对经济发展推动作用的评估模型,并以金融基础设施中极为重要的征信系统为例,量化评估了金融基础设施对我国宏观经济的促进作用.通过模型对中国人民银行征信中心所有底层数据以及针对21家全国性银行和257家地方性金融机构的调查问卷数据进行分析,我们发现征信系统促进了宏观经济中的总消费和总投资,并估算出征信系统对GDP增长的贡献占比为4.28％,相当于0.33个百分点的GDP增长率.

互联网金融正在中国经济体制下迅猛发展,对整个金融生态产生积极影响,P2P网贷平台是其中最有活力和代表性的业务模式,而定价策略是其成功的核心要素.该文借鉴传统双边市场定价理论,建立竞争条件下P2P平台的定价模型,并就模型均衡状态的经济意义进行探讨.建模分析结果表明:均衡状态下,平台对投资人的定价低于平台对借款人的定价;平台的利润与平台的差异化程度正相关;平台低于竞争对手定价时,将赢得更多的市场份额.相关理论结果可很好地解释现存P2P平台的不对称定价、产品差异化和价格战等实践.

It is difficult to extract effective scattering features or describe data using simple statistical distribution for classification of polarimetric SAR. Deep learning is effective in generating complex data model since it use network graph to model data. In this paper, a classification scheme is proposed based on deep learning algorithm, and a hierarchical structure is used to classify data based on the deep learning classifier and polarimetric feature selection when there are a variety of land covers. The classification scheme is accessed using polarimetric SAR images acquired by RADARSAT-2 sensor over Singapore-area. Experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed classification method.

互联网金融的兴起带动P2P网贷平台迅猛发展,而定价策略是其成功的核心要素。本文在传统双边市场定价理论基础之上,首次建立垄断条件下P2P平台的定价模型,并就平台向投资人、借款人收费的多种定价方式组合展开讨论。建模分析结果表明:均衡状态下,平台对投资人的定价低于平台对借款人的定价;平台对投资人（借款人）的定价与投资人（借款人）的综合网络效应负相关,且相关理论结果可很好地解释现存P2P平台的不对称定价和补偿定价策略等实践。

China's economy has maintained a rapid growth rate over the past two decades; however, its stock market has exhibited a very different level of performance during financial crises. In this paper, we try to explain this phenomenon and answer two important questions: Is there financial contagion in China? Can economic integration aggravate financial contagion? We construct a composite index of economic integration by reviewing the incremental reform and opening-up process in China's financial markets. We utilize a dynamic conditional correlation model to capture the correlations between stock returns of China and those of other important markets around the world. The empirical results provide positive evidence for the aforementioned two questions.

This study investigates the effect of marketing expenses on fund asset flows based on the Chinese open-end fund market data in the period of 2005-2010 using a fixed effect panel data regression model. The results show that, compared with the factors of fund rating, fund performance, and institutional investor holding that may impact fund asset flows as shown in existed literature, fund marketing expenses have more prominent influence on investors' purchase and redemption behavior and net fund asset flows. The results also show that the increase of fund marketing expenses may hurt fund performance.

随着互联网的逐渐普及,越来越多的消费者开始在网上进行购前调研行为,而搜索引擎使得捕捉和追踪这些购前调研行为成为可能.文章以汽车行业为例,首次通过互联网搜索量频率数据设计并构建中国汽车需求先导景气指数“GCAI”,并基于此对中国汽车消费者的购前调研行为进行研究.实证分析发现该先导指数有较强的预测力,不仅可以提高预测精度,还可以增强预测的时效性.同时,我们发现搜索量可以度量消费者的“关注”,而且汽车行业消费者的购前网上调研行为是分阶段的,有明显的“U”形规律.

Using panel data of open-end mutual funds from 2005 to 2011,this paper investigates how the volatility of mutual fund performance affects investors' sensitivity to its performance.After validating the positive relationship between mutual fund flow and performance,we find that:(1)the volatility of performance will dampen mutual funds' positive "flow-performance" relationship: the more volatile the past performance is,the less strongly the flows respond to it;(2)The dampening effect of volatility on mutual funds' "flow-performance" relationship is not the same for mutual funds in different performance ranges: it is strongest in funds with inferior performance and weaker in funds with middle performance,for star funds with superior performance the volatility even has a strengthening effect.

The analysts' forecasting behavior often has bias.In the stock market bubble period,the analysts are often irrational and over-optimistic.When the bubble crashes,the analysts issue the opposite earnings forecasts and downgrade stock recommendations.Traditional theories can't explain this fact clearly.This paper tries to introduce the catering theory and applies a reputation game model to analyze the analysts' catering behavior.The theoretical model shows that,because investors can't obtain the feedback timely,they will infer analysts' reputation according to their prior beliefs and the analysts' forecasts.In order to build a good reputation,the analysts are likely to cater investors' prior beliefs and issue biased forecasts.The evidence based on China also shows that analysts' forecasts are affected by the investors' prior beliefs,i.e.,sentiment,which exhibits obvious catering behavior.This supports the theoretical expectations of the reputation game model.

Investors often behave in irrational ways when making decisions in financial markets.It is important to answer the question of how to help investors learn their ways out of the irrational behavior patterns.Based on survival analysis method and COX 's proportional hazard model,this study investigates the probability of fund investors redemption.Not only can this model avoid setting a specific probability distribution for survival time,but also provide a convenient way to involve the time-dependent covariates to test the changes to the survival time due to a change in an independent variable.Using trading data for 6,290 institutional investors and 1,014,425 individual investors from 2002 to 2010,we find that investor sophistication and trading experiences can greatly alleviate and even eliminate their behavior biases in financial markets.We further document that the impact of investor sophistication and trading experiences on the disposition effect is asymmetric.

2012年的世界政治经济是充满不确定性的一年.欧债危机还在阵痛中动荡演变.美国经济复苏的速度也不尽如人意,但文章经过大量的调研数据与分析,认为经济的基本面并没有明显的恶化.欧洲经济阵痛中调整体现在:私人部门资产负债表正逐渐改善;整体公共财政状况有所改善;短期经济衰退的风险下降.美国经济也在缓慢企稳主要体现为制造业产能回复且就业回升在即、房地产市场缓慢回温.2012年下半年中国经济将呈现U型回升.