Increasing green total factor productivity of grain (GGTFP) is crucial for overcoming resource and environmental constraints and achieving the SDGs. However, targeted research on GGTFP remains limited. This study employed the global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index method based on the super-SBM function to calculate China's GGTFP from 2003 to 2023, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and regional differences, and explored the influencing factors of GGTFP from the "production-living-ecology" (PLE) functional perspective. Results showed that: (1) China's GGTFP fluctuated upward from 2003 to 2023, driven mainly by green technological change, with a weak "catching-up effect" from technological efficiency. (2) Spatial distribution became more concentrated, and the "convergence effect" within grain functional areas was strengthened. (3) The centers of gravity of GGTFP in China's 31 provinces migrated toward the northwest as a whole, with intensified spatial agglomeration. (4) Regional differences in GGTFP gradually diminished from 2003 to 2023, with transvariation density as the primary source. (5) Ecological function was the dominant influencing factor, followed by production function, which exhibited spatiotemporal heterogeneity and "threshold effects". Therefore, some policy implications are proposed regarding refined management, intensive utilization, and multi-objective trade-offs and synergies in policy-making. These findings can offer valuable insights into global sustainable grain production, coordinated development of grain functional areas, and food security from the supply side.

The use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets (CMADS) for runoff simulation research is of great significance for regional flood prevention and control. Therefore, from the perspective of production-living-ecological space, this article combined multi-source data such as DEM, soil texture and land use type, in order to construct scenarios of territorial spatial change (TSC) across distinct periods. Based on the CMADS-L40 data and the SWAT model, it simulated the runoff dynamics in the Xitiaoxi River Basin, and analyzed the hydrological response characteristics under different TSCs. The results showed that The SWAT model, driven by CMADS-L40 data, demonstrated robust performance in monthly runoff simulation. The coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and the absolute value of percentage bias (|PBIAS|) during the calibration and validation period all met the accuracy requirements of the model, which validated the applicability of CMADS-L40 data and the SWAT model for runoff simulation at the watershed scale. Changes in territorial spatial patterns are closely correlated with runoff variation. Changes in agricultural production space and forest ecological space show statistically significant negative correlation with runoff change, while industrial production space change exhibits a significant positive correlation with runoff change. The expansion of production space, particularly industrial production space, leads to increased runoff, whereas the enlargement of agricultural production space and forest ecological space can reduce runoff. This article contributes to highlighting the role of land use policy in hydrological regulation, providing a scientific basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning to mitigate flood risks and protect water resources.

Under the rural revitalization strategy, traditional rural development models are increasingly less aligned with the practical needs of the current stage. So optimizing rural transformation models is essential to promote rural revitalization and urban-rural integration development. This study constructs a theoretical framework of rural transformation based on ESE (Economic centrality - Space agglomeration - Environment livability), with an empirical focus on villages in the Wujin District of China. It uses the combination weighting method and gravity model to quantitatively measure village suitability and centrality. Results show that Wujin’ village suitability weakens from the north to the south: highly-suitable villages are mainly located around the urban core area, moderately suitable ones cluster on the periphery, and over 50

The purpose of this study is to test the response of rural–urban migration to land endowment while recognizing the heterogeneity of land tenure security perceptions. Based on the survey data of 751 migrant workers in Nanjing City, the latent class model identifies the secured group and unsecured group, with a particular focus on how heterogeneous concepts of land tenure security mediate the above relationships. Empirical modeling explores how land endowment affects household labor distribution and individual migration decisions, taking the heterogeneity of tenure expectations into account. The key findings reveal the following: (1) an inverse U-shaped relationship between land endowment and household labor distribution, but not between land endowment and individual migrant decisions; (2) farm households who perceive land tenure as unsecured tend to send fewer household members as job-seeking migrants, even as their land endowment increases; (3) however, individual migration decisions under conditions of a secured land tenure reduce the risk of losing land and induce migrant workers to stay in cities. The findings contribute to advancing the institutional analysis of the impact of land endowment on household labor allocation and how land tenure security affects immigration decisions, providing empirical evidence for China’s rural revitalization policies, which would support reforms that secure land tenure, such as the second-round contracting renewal policy and the rural revitalization plan in China.

This study explores the social risks associated with the urbanization of migrant workers, using the Eastern part of China as a case study. Ten key risk factors were identified: social integration, urban living environment, rural land withdrawal, political participation, social network, social psychology, rural social contact, family relationships, urban enterprise employee insurance, and rural land role cognition. Among these, social integration risk, social network risk, rural social contact risk, and family relationship risk emerged as the most significant contributors to the overall risk profile. Risk assessments show consistent results, regardless of whether individual characteristics were controlled, highlighting the widespread nature of these challenges. A central risk scenario is the “urbanization dilemma,' where migrant workers face barriers to full urban integration while losing rural ties. This dilemma is driven by government policies, enterprise practices, and individual circumstances, leading to potential outcomes such as social disharmony, labor-capital conflicts, and risks of land loss and unemployment. To address these risks, a dual strategy of pre-prevention and post-control is proposed. Pre-prevention measures include promoting social integration, reforming land policies, and strengthening community support systems. Post-control focuses on conflict resolution, reskilling programs, and ongoing monitoring. These interventions aim to enhance social resilience, ensure migrant well-being, and foster sustainable urbanization.

Migrant workers in China are experiencing social isolation caused by institutional and non-institutional barriers. This paper explores the relationship between social isolation and migrants' smoking behavior as well as gender differences in smoking. Migrants' social isolation is systematically measured from the structural and qualitative perspective. Using the survey data of 2,188 rural-to-urban migrants in China in 2016, the prevalence of smoking among migrants is 38.21%, with 51.70% for males and 4.06% for females. Migrants with social isolation, such as migration instability, lack of ties with family and fellow migrants, and life dissatisfaction in migrant cities, are more likely to smoke and the impacts vary by gender. The income and price elasticities of cigarette demand show that male migrant smokers are more sensitive to income and price changes than female migrant smokers. Boosting rural migrants' integration into the local community will reduce smoking prevalence, improving the overall health of the society.

China’s rural population flowing into highly urbanized areas has led to the spatial reconstruction of urban–rural land use. Exploring the laws and trends of urban–rural land use in highly urbanized areas is of great significance in promoting rural transformation. This paper takes the southern Jiangsu region as a research area and uses a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the demand for different land types based on economic, social, policy, and environmental (ESPE) factors. Future land use simulation (FLUS) is used to simulate the spatial evolution trend of urban–rural land use based on point–axis elements. The results show that the agricultural production space is severely squeezed by the urban living space. Under the scenario of rapid expansion, the decrease in arable land quantity and the demand area for rural residential areas are the largest. Under the scenario of high-quality development, the decrease in arable land area and the demand for land in rural residential areas are lowest. Based on the spatial simulation, it is reported that the areas with more intense land use spatial reconstruction in the three scenarios are mainly concentrated in the region’s urban–rural border areas. The future evolution of urban–rural land is summarized into three models: (1) single-center-driving expansion, (2) patchy expansion near the city center, and (3) multi-center-driving expansion. This paper proposes targeted policy recommendations to provide a scientific reference for solving the conflict between urban and rural land use.

加强和规范农村集体经济组织成员管理,事关农村改革发展稳定大局.近期笔者对江苏省常州市武进区强化集体经济组织成员管理的实践进行了调研.2004 年,武进区在全国率先探索农村集体经济组织成员资格认定管理路径,截至目前已经确认集体经济组织成员 65.7 万人,确权农户 18 万户,建立了较为完备的成员管理制度体系,形成了农村集体经济组织建设与管理全要素实践样本,为保障成员权益、强化还权赋能、实现有效治理提供了有力支撑.

乡村治理体系现代化是国家治理体系现代化的重要组成部分,网格化社会治理机制是创新社会治理体系的重要举措.常州市武进区的探索为网格化社会治理与村民自治相融合共同推进宅基地制度改革提供了崭新样本,因此本文笔者对常州市武进区农村社区网格化管理进行了"区—镇—村"三级调研,并就创设村级宅基地协管员的必要性与可行性也做了同步调研.调查结果表明:(1)从宅基地管理职责看,创设村级宅基地协管员对优化行政村的小微权力是非常必要的;(2)从"网格+"社会治理融合趋势和现有资源条件两个方面看,宅基地管理纳入网格化社会治理体系具有可行性;(3)武进区小微权力清单化与基层治理网格化多功能叠加融合,网格员与协管员两位一体赋权赋能,走出了一条网格化管理技术和村级宅基地协管融合的道路.在此基础上形成的总体判断是,从武进区经验的推广价值看,我国农村已形成网格化社会治理的制度基础,网格化社会治理做好"网格+"的融合工作可以为当前农村宅基地制度改革提供重要抓手.村民自治与小微权力配置,是基于社会治理体系的村级宅基地协管制度创新的关键,同时也是农村社区治理能力建设的关键.但是,农村社区小微权力配置在"一竿子插到底"的治理路径下呈现出行政化倾向,网格化管理所具有的整合条线资源任务落地优势进一步地固化了基层对行政权力下沉的依赖性.结果导致了网格化管理过度行政化主导与社会治理的多元化主体共治的矛盾,造成了村民自治事项与政府委托事项难以区分的冲突.总之,今后探索"网格+"宅基地协管的制度创新,既要充分利用网格化管理所具有的整合条线资源任务落地优势,又要考虑到行政化影响村民自治的不利因素.从具体场景看,注重协管员专职与兼职相结合,加强条线与网格之间的协同联动;长远来看,立法规范村民自治事项与政府委托事项,科学合理配置小微权力是目标,推动从"管治融合"到"两治融合"治理转型,实现行政限权与乡治分权相结合.

基于1990年、2000年、2010年和2018年土地利用现状遥感监测数据,利用转移矩阵对中国"生产—生活—生态"结构转型的时空演化特征进行研究,引入生态环境质量指数和土地利用转型的生态贡献率分析中国1990—2018年"三生空间"变化的生态环境效应,利用地理加权回归模型（GWR）对中国生态环境效应的主要影响因素及其作用效应的空间分异进行识别。结果表明:（1）研究期内中国生产、生活空间增加,生态空间减少,总体呈现"入不敷出"的态势。（2）中国1990—2018年生态环境质量的高值区以中国的南部和东北部为主,低值区主要分布在胡焕庸线西北部;其他生态空间和农业生产空间对草地和林地生态空间的挤占是导致研究期内生态环境质量恶化的重要原因。（3）坡度、年平均降水量、土地利用强度、海拔、地形起伏度、人口密度和年平均气温等是中国生态环境质量格局的主要影响因素,且各因素作用效应的空间差异明显。未来中国的政策制定和经济发展应考虑"三生空间"转型的生态环境效应及其主导影响因素,促进"三生空间"用地结构的合理分布,推进中国的生态文明建设。

农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点是向农民还权赋能的改革,承担了扩大农民财产权能、激活僵化资产的使命.尽管在理论上农民住房财产权抵押贷款有助于激活农村金融市场,但从实践效果来看,这项改革试点并不如理论预期.从农民住房财产权抵押贷款政策出台和落实的前提角度而言,农户贷款意愿确实关乎改革持续推进的基础,而意愿为何不高并没有得到充分的解释.本研究通过对改革试点地区——武进区的普通农户、两权抵押的新型农业经营主体、商业银行、人民银行武进支行以及农村宅基地制度改革试点办公室等个人或机构的调研,试图对意愿为何不高的解释构建一个相对完整的拼图.研究发现:(1)金融机构作为抵押贷款业务的供给方,意愿不高、顾虑重重的原因在于目前法律、规范、操作等方面都不完善,他们对于农户的偿还能力、风险把控和抵押物的处置存在顾虑,希望政府在涉农贷款的政策支撑、市场培育、纠纷协调、风险托底方面提供制度支撑和业务流程规范;(2)现阶段并非所有农户都存在融资需求,且融资需求主要受微观层面的个体特征要素的影响,经济观念保守、抵御风险能力低、新房抵押无凭、旧房价值不高等也是农户贷款意愿不高的原因;(3)农民住房财产权抵押业务的运行仍然要依赖于区级财政提供的风险担保,不能够凭借制度支撑自主运行,依然处于需要扶持的初级阶段,与农民住房财产权抵押制度的常态化运行尚存距离.因此在后续的工作中要做到"主导在区、主抓在镇、主体在村、主动在民",发挥政府主导作用,激发农户主体意识,提高金融机构服务意识,引导村民委员会做好"润滑剂",注重内外结合,更好激活农村金融市场.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">以广西壮族自治区农户调查为例,验证土地成本对农户耕地质量保护行为有何影响。基于Binary Probit和Biprobit模型,研究发现:土地租金越高时,农户反而更可能采纳测土配方与秸秆还田这两类耕地质量保护行为。分样本回归发现,相对规模较小的农户,土地成本会促使经营规模较大农户更积极的采纳测土配方和秸秆还田两类绿色技术类保护措施。进一步的研究表明,农户之所以更倾向于施测土配方肥,是因为这类保护性措施能显著降低农业生产成本和有效提升农业经营性收入,更倾向于采纳秸秆还田技术则是因为这类耕地质量保护行为能够显著提升农业经营性收入。说明高地租并不必然导致农户消耗地利,面对地租成本压力,采纳绿色技术类耕地质量保护措施也是农户的可能选择之一。</span>

本文基于对温州农户的调查,考察确权颁证如何影响宅基地流转.研究表明,确权能显著促进农户参与宅基地流转.异质性分析发现,确权能显著提升较年轻农户和居住在城郊农村农户的宅基地流转概率,但无法激励年龄较大农户和居住在非城郊农村的农户参与流转.机制分析表明,确权能够有效促进宅基地流转,一方面是因为确权强化了宅基地私有观念,提升了农户流转意愿;另一方面,是因为确权让农户更可能获得农房抵押贷款,拓宽了使用权流转渠道.本文的政策含义在于,对交易标的物进行产权界定能够起到激活农村宅基地流转市场的作用,但在落实这一政策时须考虑农户异质性带来的效果分化,并制定更有针对性的宅基地管理政策.

为深化对宅基地“三权分置”的理解和认知,本文对宅基地和承包地“三权分置”进行了对比分析,并重点探讨了两类三权权属特征和目标指向的异同.研究发现:(1)宅基地三权和承包地三权在所有权强度、资格权或承包权的法定期限、使用权和经营权的残缺度方面有显著差异.(2)两类“三权分置”均教力于提升农户收入和便利农村劳动力流动,但在乡村和城市两个维度有较大差异.乡村维度,宅基地“三权分置”更多服务于乡村振兴,而承包地“三权分置”更加聚焦农业产业的升级转型.城镇雏度,宅基地“三权分置”还担负起探索多元主体供应、推动建设租购并举的住房体系的社会责任,而这一点是承包地“三权分置”所不具备的.基于此,本文得出宅基地三权和承包地三权有相似也有差异,需要进一步辨析两类“三权分置”,以更好地释放宅基地制度变革效应的结论与启示.

中国作为农业大国和自然灾害最严重的国家之一,自然灾害会对农作物和耕地造成严重影响.基于1978～2017年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)农作物受灾面积与灾毁耕地面积等灾情数据,结合气温、降水等气象数据和地形数据,采用计量分析、Morlet小波分析和空间分析等方法,分析我国农作物和耕地受灾的时空分布特征,并探究农作物受灾面积的周期性以及农作物受灾面积、灾毁耕地面积与气温、降水和地形之间的关系.结果 表明:1978～2017年农作物受灾主要以旱灾和水灾为主,农作物受灾面积和灾毁耕地面积均呈下降趋势,且农作物受灾面积有30年左右的显著变化周期;不同灾种的空间分布存在差异,其中农作物受灾较大的区域主要是华北平原、东北平原和长江中下游平原等农业较为发达区域,灾毁耕地面积主要分布在毗邻胡焕庸线两侧的省份(直辖市、自治区),且以西南地区为最,洪涝、滑坡、泥石流是造成灾毁耕地的主要原因;农作物水、旱灾害与降水,农作物冷冻灾害与气温,灾毁耕地与平均坡度、坡度大于15度面积比在置信区间呈现正、负、负、正、正的相关关系.在政策设计上掌握农作物和耕地受灾的时空特征和发生规律,将对减少农业自然灾害损失和提高防灾减灾能力具有重要的意义.

宅基地制度是关乎广大农民切身利益的重要制度安排,是全面深化农村土地制度改革的关键环节.武进区作为乡镇企业的发祥地之一,一直都是中国农村改革的"试验田",具有优良的改革创新传统.在上轮改革中,武进区承担过农村宅基地制度改革以及统筹推进"三项试点"的重要任务.本研究以常州市武进区为对象,回顾了武进区农村宅基地制度改革的进展.通过NVivo质性研究等方法分析其围绕保障"户有宜居"、完善宅基地抵押权能、探索有偿使用和退出及"三权分置"等方面开展的实践探索,总结武进区农村宅基地制度改革实践和制度经验.具体而言,通过构建制度体系、四大综合管理平台及有效的推进机制,为改革奠定了坚实的基础.通过引导宅基地有偿退出、构建农民住房财产权抵押机制,探索了宅基地还权、赋能、强能的实现途径.通过编制村庄规划,加强宅基地管理,引导集中居住区建设,优化了村庄布局.通过完善土地收益分配机制,保障农民公平分享土地增值收益,探索了增加农民财产性收入的路径.通过研究具有物权属性宅基地使用权的不动产登记实现形式,确定资格权人的宅基地使用权和非资格权人的宅基地使用权登记操作办法,探索了宅基地"三权分置"实现形式.通过农村宅基地制度改革,武进区改善了人居环境,盘活了农村闲置资源,为农村产业的发展拓宽了空间.但改革并非尽善尽美,还存在部分规划难落实、住房财产权抵押和宅基地退出推进缓慢、宅基地"三权分置"探索有待深入、试点范围需进一步扩大、重城轻乡的体制惯性等问题需进一步研究解决.

基于江苏省北中南的赣榆、仪征和常熟三县2009年、2012年和2016年三期遥感影像、土地利用变更调查数据及社会经济统计数据,运用GIS和SPSS分析了三县2009 ～ 2016年土地利用转型的时空特征,并对三县五种主要土地利用类型转换的影响因素进行辨识.结果 表明:(1)土地利用转型的时空特征方面,三县的主要土地利用类型转换和时空分布特征差异显著,三县的建设用地均呈增加趋势,但增加的主要来源不同.(2)土地利用转型的影响因素方面,三县土地利用类型转换是多种人文和自然因素共同作用的结果,人均GDP、农民人均纯收入、第二产业增加值、第三产业增加值、距主要铁路距离及距主要河流距离是五种土地利用转型的主要驱动因子,但三县不同土地利用类型转换的主要影响因素存在差异.通过对不同区域土地利用转型的时空特征及影响因素进行对比研究,能够辨识土地利用类型转换的主要驱动因子,对土地利用的可持续发展具有重要意义.

利用中国家庭动态追踪调查CFPS2012全国大样本数据,实证分析了成员外出务工和家庭人口结构对农户土地流转行为的影响。解决内生性问题后,结果表明:1)随着家庭成员外出务工率的提升,农户更倾向于转出土地;2)与以往成果不一致,本研究并没有发现外出务工对农户家庭土地转入行为有显著负面影响。3)家庭人口结构老年化会负向影响农户土地转出行为和土地转出率,而家庭人口结构女性化对农户是否流转土地和流转参与率均没有显著影响。4)进一步的研究表明,外出务工之所以不再负向影响农地转入,关键在于农业机械很好的替代了流失劳动力。