十九大报告指出要以"一带一路"建设为重点,推动形成全面开放的新格局,而金融投资机制对于该战略的落地意义重大.以"一带一路"沿线21个国家为样本,具体考察了我国的对外金融合作对沿线国家的经济增长效应.研究结果表明,金融合作显著提升了"一带一路"沿线国家的人均实际GDP,其中中资银行海外数量和货币互换具有稳健的经济增长效应;进一步的研究还表明金融合作的经济增长效应具有区域性特征,金融合作对东南亚国家经济增长的促进作用更明显,对于非东南亚国家而言作用较弱.

This paper selects quarterly data of national social security fund and supplementary pension's shareholding and uses instrumental variable method to investigate the dynamic effect of pension fund's changing shareholding ratio on corporate performance and performance improve-ment.This paper finds:(1)pension fund only acts as"value discoverer",they won't be"value creator";(2)when other conditions remain unchanged,performance of these companies,which national social security fund increases shareholding ratios,holding more shares or holding shares in the long run,is better than other companies,but their performance improvement is worse. While,there are no significant difference in performance and its improvement whether national social security fund becomes topt en shareholders or not;(3)The performance of these compa-nies,which supplementary pension increases shareholding ratios or holds more shares,is better than other companies.The conclusion of this paper is of important theoretical and practical signif-icance in further improving the pension fund investment and management system.

This paper explores market timing abilities of Chinese mutual fund managers from the three dimensions: market return, volatility, and liquidity. Using a sample of equity funds from July 2005 to June 2016, we find strong evidence that mutual funds can time the market volatility and liquidity. Our results show that only growth-oriental funds have the ability to time the market returns. We also find that among funds with different investment objectives, balance funds have the most significant volatility timing while growth funds have the most significant liquidity timing ability. Our findings are robust to alternative explanations, including style timing, illiquid holdings, and market reaction. Bootstrap analysis indicates that the evidence cannot be attributable to luck. For all three forms of market timing, a successful timer tends to have higher turnover rate. Finally, we find that Chinese equity mutual funds are able to demonstrate market volatility and liquidity timing persistence in the out-of-sample test. No evidence is found for the presence of return timing persistence.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">本文选取2009²011年间沪深IPO公司为样本,系统地研究了公司的媒体信息管理行为对于IPO一级市场定价和抑价率的影响及其作用路径。在控制了其他影响因素后,我们发现公司的媒体信息管理行为在提高IPO发行价的同时,降低了IPO抑价水平,提高了资本市场的定价效率,公司在上市造势期内的媒体新闻报道每增加1篇,其IPO抑价率平均会降低0.3%左右。进一步,我们发现,媒体关注度对首日换手率无显著影响,表明媒体提高IPO定价效率主要依赖其信息传播作用,而非通过影响投资者情绪来实现。本文研究表明,上市公司能有效借助媒体这一信息传导渠道,适时主动地释放公司定价信息,有效地提高了市场的定价效率。</span>

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">本文利用2003至2011年期间,中国主流财经媒体对上市公司报道的数据,考察了媒体报道对分析师预测行为的影响。文章发现,媒体对上市公司关注度的提升能够显著降低分析师的预测乐观度和预测偏差,而这种影响对于财务信息透明度较差的公司更加明显。进一步的研究发现,媒体关注越高则分歧越小,而媒体分歧的下降能够显著降低分析师预测.乐观度和预测偏差。当我们同时控制了媒体分歧之后,媒体关注度对分析师预测精度的提升作用就不复存在。以上的结果表明,媒体关注对分析师预测行为的影响是通过两个渠道实现的:从上市公司角度而言,媒体报道数量的增加能够有效提高公司信息质量,降低分析师预测偏差;从媒体报道自身角度而言,报道数量的增加能够降低媒体分歧,改善分析师预测精度。</span>

本文以88个发展中国家为样本(1974-2010年),考察了资本账户自由化对发展中国家汇率制度选择的影响.研究发现,不同的资本账户自由化测算方法是影响这种关系的重要因素:采用名义测算方法衡量资本账户自由化程度时,资本账户自由化程度越高的发展中国家越可能采用更有弹性的汇率制度;采用事实测算方法衡量资本账户自由化程度时,资本账户自由化程度越高的发展中国家则越可能采用更缺乏弹性的汇率制度.本文随后采用两种方法测度了政府对资本流动的实际控制程度,并以此为基础展开进一步的实证研究.实证结果支持本文提出的理论假说,即实际资本控制程度越高的经济体越可能采用更有弹性的汇率制度,而实际资本控制程度越低的经济体则越不可能提高汇率弹性.

对于我国商业银行而言,财务杠杆、贷款增长率、坏账率、资本充足率和利息差对不同业绩考核指标均存在不同程度的影响。考察股东结构对我国商业银行的业绩影响发现,董事会的政府和专业背景以及海外股东均会对业绩指标产生较大影响。

This article firstly amends the theoretical model of the relationship between economic sanctions and reputational loss- es in the financial market. Based on this, we use the event study methodology to test the market reaction of the companies which violate the regulations during the period 2001-2011. Further wore , we decompose the market reactions into the effect of the economic penalties and the reputational losses., We investigate the relationship between economic sanctions and reputational losses. The results show that there is a significant effect of loss of reputation, and the amount of the economic sanctions has no significant effect on the reputation losses. At last, we propose the policy implications."

本文修正了CLR和多重套利两个重要理论模型,运用2000年1月至2011年12月的月度数据实证检验了人民币汇率、股票市场和热钱之间的互动关系。研究表明:不管是在长期还是短期,人民币汇率与热钱的流入具有相互的因果关系;但研究结果并没有表明热钱和股市之间存在显著的相互关系。

This paper amends currency mismatch model from two aspects.On the one hand,based on the existing estimates this paper introduces the foreign currency assets and liabilities out of the balance sheet and derivative foreign currency instruments in the financial sector.On the other hand,based on the existing research this paper further explicitly proposes using GDP to eliminate the influence of economies scale.Accordingly,the paper estimates the degree of the currency mismatch in Chinese financial sector by using modified ACMAQ model and the data of 24 listed companies in financial sector.It is found that there is slight claims-based currency mismatch in financial sector from 2001 to 2004,but serious claims-based currency mismatch since 2005.Finally, based on the foregoing analysis this paper raises the corresponding policy recommendations.

Any one of the international monetary system to simultaneously achieve internal and external price stability should meet the basic conditions, the conflict caused by which in internal and external stability is the root of the instability, even the collapse of the international monetary system. The short-term reform of the international monetary system calls for the United States to impose monetary policy discipline. The substantial restrictions on the center state of irresponsible monetary policy efforts and long-term reform of the international monetary system need the efforts of international community.

随着信息技术的发展与进步，社交媒体从一开始的社交工具和讨论平台逐渐演变成传递信息和情绪且越来越具有社会影响力的媒体渠道。为考察社交媒体和新闻媒体对股票市场的不同影响，本文选取2008年1月至2020年12月沪深两市A股上市公司数据作为研究样本。本文研究表明：（1）与传统新闻媒体对股票市场的影响相比，社交媒体对股票波动、换手率和收益率的影响更大。且采用工具变量法和替换媒体关注度指标等稳健性检验方法，依然没有改变本文的基本结论。（2）异质性分析表明，社交媒体和新闻媒体的关注对股票市场的影响会受到不同市场行情、不同公司市值和不同行业公司数量分布的影响。（3）面板向量自回归模型能够较好地模拟社交媒体和新闻媒体关注对未来股票市场的冲击。此外，在市场层面，发现媒体关注度对股票市场的影响存在不对称性。