Thomas Rawski challenges recent quantitative studies that find declining Chinese GDP per capita during 1700-1850 and suggests that the error margins around the component series for per capita grain supply should be widened, which would make it possible to accommodate stagnation, growth or decline. We show that there are good reasons to reject Rawski's wider error margins. We also reject Rawski's claim that there has previously been a consensus view of eighteenth-century Qing prosperity and demonstrate that trends in the other variables examined by Rawski tend to support declining per capita grain supply.

We examine regional variation in Chinese GDP per head for five benchmark years from the Song dynasty to the Qing. For the Ming and Qing dynasties, we provide a breakdown of regional GDP per head across seven macro regions, establishing that East Central China was the richest macro region. In addition, we provide data on the Yangzi Delta, the core of East Central China, widely seen as the richest part of China since 1400. Yangzi Delta GDP per head was 64 to 67 per cent higher than in China as a whole for three of the four Ming and Qing benchmarks, and 52 per cent higher during the late Ming. For the Northern Song dynasty, although it is not possible to derive a full regional breakdown, we provide data for Kaifeng Fu, the region containing the capital city as well as the Yangzi Delta. GDP per head in Kaifeng Fu was more than twice the level of China as a whole and higher than in the Yangzi Delta. Combined with aggregate data for GDP per head, these estimates suggest that China was the leading economy in the world during the Song dynasty and that the Great Divergence began around 1700 as the leading region of China fell decisively behind the leading region of Europe. They are also consistent with a shift in the economic centre of gravity from the north to the south between the Northern Song and Ming dynasties.

Following the Mongol invasion of China, the Yuan (1260–1368) dynasty was the first political regime to introduce a precious metal standard and deploy paper money as the sole legal tender. Drawing on a new dataset on money issues, prices, warfare, imperial grants, taxation, natural disasters, and population, we find that a silver standard initially consolidated the Chinese currency market. However, persistent fiscal pressures eventually compelled rulers to ease the monetary standard, and a fiat standard was adopted. We show that inflation was high in the early and late periods of the dynasty but remained moderate for nearly half a century. We find that military pressure, particularly civil war, generated fiscal demands that led to the over‐issuance of money. By contrast, natural disasters and imperial grants did not trigger the over‐issue of money. Warfare was much more likely to increase paper money issues under the fiat standard than during the silver standard period.

Peter Solar highlights some shortcomings of our treatment of government spending. However, correcting for these shortcomings using data rather than assumptions confirms our principal findings. GDP per capita in the leading region of China remained around the same level as in the leading region of Europe until the eighteenth century before declining substantially during the Qing dynasty. The Great Divergence thus began around 1700, earlier than originally suggested by the California School, but later than implied by earlier writers. The new data do not support Solar’s novel chronology with its Great Crossing, Great Convergence and Greater Divergence.

1978年改革开放以来,中国经济更深地卷入了全球化,由于在贸易中较好地符合了比较优势理论,中国很长时间里经常账户处于盈余状态,由此积累了较大规模的外汇储备.本文在更长远的历史视角下考察中国的贸易盈余和外汇储备.首先,查找和计算1636年以来的进出口,相对应的白银流入和流出,以及重要年份的白银存量数据.其次,基于同一年份的货币购买力,将历史上的贸易和白银存量与新中国成立后,特别是1978年改革开放后的贸易和外汇储备进行比较.最后,计算人均进出口额和贸易盈余或者赤字,并进行长时段比较.研究发现:1636年到新中国成立前,中国的贸易规模不断扩大,新中国成立初期贸易额稍有下降,改革开放后贸易额大幅度增加,加入WTO后增速更快.以1990年美元计值,明代贸易带来的白银净流入高于清代,也高于民国初期和改革开放前,但显著低于改革开放后和加入WTO后的外汇储备.新中国成立前,人均贸易额不断增加,1948-1978年间人均贸易额有所下降,改革开放后,人均贸易额进一步增加.本文的发现有助于从长期视角考察改革开放后的经常账户和资本账户,得到更加全面和客观的认识.

本文从县志中搜集整理了千余县土改前后地权分配的数据,并从多个维度(基尼系数、第一泰尔指数、地主富农占地百分比和不平等指数)测度了土改前后地权分配的不平等状况.根据县志数据,全国地主、富农、中农和贫雇农的人口占比分别为4.95％、3.68％、34.7％和48.56％.文章首先计算了县级层面的地权分配不平等程度,然后将衡量县级地权分配不平等的各项指标加总到省、地区及全国层面,最后进行区域之间的对比和土改前后的对比.研究表明,土地改革极大地降低了我国地权分配的不平等程度.从县级层面来看,土改前,样本中地权分配基尼系数大于0.4的县数占55.77％;土改后,样本中基尼系数小于0.2的县数占91.35％.从全国层面来看,土改前,地权分配不平等程度较高,基尼系数均值为0.47,第一泰尔指数均值为0.59,不平等指数为0.53,地主富农占地42.8％,各地区和省的不平等程度差异较大,其中地权分配最集中的地区是东北和西南地区,最分散的是西北地区;土改后,各地区和各省的地权基本实现平均分配,全国基尼系数均值为0.10,第一泰尔指数均值为0.05,地主富农占地百分比之和为10.73％.文末利用其他官方统计数据计算出的地权分配基尼系数与本文基于县志数据的计算结果进行比较,证实了县志数据的可信度,而县志数据更加系统,这为今后的研究提供了更好的微观基础.

从19世纪60年代第一批现代企业建立至今,中国的工业化经历了一个半世纪.本文首次将历史工业调查数据库和当代工业调查数据库合并,并结合宏观统计数据,研究我国工业化的发展历程及在世界上相对地位的演变.研究发现,我国的工业规模及在世界工业产值中所占比重都在2011年达到世界第一,目前是世界上工业门类最齐全的国家.工业在总GDP中所占比重1977年超过农业居于第一,并在2003年达到最高(60.11％),此后开始下降,并在2012年被服务业超过,这反映了我国整体产业结构的不断升级;工业总产值中先进制造业所占比重的不断提高也说明了这一点.20世纪以来我国工业区位的分布呈现了从扩散到集聚,再扩散到再集聚的过程,这一特点很大程度上与政府在某些时期对工业化的主导有关,工业部门内部轻重工业相对比重的变化很大程度上也与政府政策有关.工业部门的劳动生产率经历了从1912—1952年的负增长到1952—2017年正增长的转变,体现了我国工业从劳动密集型生产转为资本密集型生产及技术水平的提高.制造业企业的全要素生产率经历了从1933年的较低水平到20世纪80年代至90年代的迅速增长,此后也维持在较高水平,并且在不同时期的不同地区呈现出较大差异.本文的研究结论有助于更好地理解我国的工业化历程,并对下一阶段深入推进新型工业化道路提供一定借鉴.

一个文明在世界上影响力的重要测度是其经济活动在世界经济中的相对地位,因而深刻认识中华文明的历史影响力以及1978年以来改革开放对中华民族复兴的意义,有必要对中国经济在世界经济中相对地位的演变进行长时段研究.已有研究大多引用麦迪逊估算,其准确性值得商榷.本文应用国际学术界前沿的历史国民收入核算方法得到的最新世界各国GDP数据,结合中国原始历史记载,大幅校准了基于麦迪逊人均GDP猜估值得到的中国在世界经济中的相对地位,重新认识了中国在世界经济中相对地位的演变.研究发现:第一,公元1000-1978年,中国GDP在世界总GDP中的比重先升后降,峰值为1600年的34.6％,而不是麦迪逊估算的1600年和1820年两次高峰,1600年34.6％的峰值高于麦迪逊32.9％的最高峰估计.西方国家工业革命后,中国GDP在世界总GDP中的比重断崖式下降,1952年和1978年分别仅占5.2％和4.9％.第二,改革开放后,中国GDP占世界GDP的比重迅速恢复,2017年达到18.2％.第三,以人均GDP衡量,中国从18世纪上半期开始,生活水平开始落后于主要欧洲国家,中西大分流已经出现,而非加州学派认为的工业革命后.本文研究表明,1978年改革开放开启的是自公元1600以来中国经济的首次历史性复兴.

元代是我国历史上最早且唯一统一将纸币作为法定流通货币的朝代,是价值尺度从铜钱转为白银的转折点,并由此形成了世界历史上最早的银本位货币体系.元代纸币的运行机制表明:其发行初期,由于银本位制度的作用而运行良好,币值稳定;中期后,迫于财政压力,政府不得不诉诸超发纸币以弥补财政赤字,本位制度名存实亡,通货膨胀不可避免.实证检验发现,多省起义产生的财政压力是纸币发行数量持续增加的重要原因,赏赐对纸币超发的作用并不显著,而随着银本位执行力度的减弱,尤其是钞本由金银变为纸币后,财政压力促使货币超发的效应更为突出.因而,严格的银本位有利于维持纸币的发行和流通,但在军事活动造成的财政压力下,稳定的贵金属本位制度难以长期维系.元代纸币经历了从币值稳定到温和通胀,再到恶性通胀的阶段,这在我国古代历史上具有一般性.

As a result of recent advances in historical national accounting, estimates of GDP per capita are now available for a number of European economies back to the medieval period, including Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain. The approach has also been extended to Asian economies, including India and Japan. So far, however, China, which has been at the center of the Great Divergence debate, has been absent from this approach. This article adds China to the picture, showing that the Great Divergence began earlier than originally suggested by the California School, but later than implied by older Eurocentric writers.

"The Yuan was the first dynasty both in Chinese and world history to use paper money as its sole medium of circulation, and also established the earliest silver standard. This paper explores the impact of paper money in Yuan China. We find that: (1) At the beginning of its regime, due to the strict constraints of the silver standard on money issuances, the value of paper money was stable. (2) Since the middle stage of the dynasty, the central government had to finance fiscal deficits by issuing more paper money, and inflation was thus unavoidable. Our empirical results also demonstrate that fiscal pressure from multiple provincial rebellions was the most important factor driving the government to issue more paper money; however, the emperor’s largesse, which had been viewed as another source of fiscal deficits by most traditional historians, had no significant effect on the over-issuance of paper money. (3) When the monetary standard switched from silver to paper money, the impact of fiscal deficits, which were driving more paper money issuances, became much more severe. Based on these findings, we argue that the experience of Yuan China verified that metal standards could serve as a discipline on paper money over-issuances. This episode in Yuan China predates the money over-issuances observed during the era of the classic gold standard found in western countries by six centuries."

View help for Summary This is the replication package for" China, Europe and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical national Accounting". As a result of recent advances in historical national accounting, estimates of GDP per capita are now available for a number of European economies back to the medieval period, including Britain, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain. The approach has also been extended to Asian economies, including India and Japan. So far, however, China, which has been at the center of the Great Divergence debate, has been absent from this approach. This paper adds China to the picture and shows that the Great Divergence began earlier than originally suggested by the California School, but later than implied by older Eurocentric writers.

Chinese GDP per capita fluctuated at a high level during the Northern Song and Ming dynasties before trending downwards during the Qing dynasty. China led the world in living standards during the Northern Song dynasty, but had fallen behind Italy by 1300. At this stage, it is possible that parts of China were still on a par with the richest parts of Europe, but by 1750 the gap was too large to be bridged by regional variation within China and the Great Divergence had already begun before the Industrial Revolution.

1978年之后我国的经济转型相对于前苏联及东欧国家激发了更大的增长动力.对此,学术界有一种代表性观点解释为,由于新中国成立后,中国的中央与地方财政关系曾出现多次变动,特别是财政分权政策的实施,客观上为改革开放后的地方竞争奠定了基础.本文基于已有的财政史研究成果,追溯了我国财政分权的历史渊源,包括秦汉至近代中央与地方的财政关系,例如征税方式、收入分成模式、支出模式、中央与地方对财权及事权的划分等.文章发现:第一,在中国,财政分权属于历史现象,无论财政承包还是分税制历史上都曾施行过;第二,财政集权和财政分权呈现出明显的周期性特征;第三,绝大多数历史时期财政分权与政治集权相伴随;第四,虽然财政分权古已有之,但为地方政府提供经济发展的激励却是当代才出现的.

The Yuan dynasty was the only dynasty to use paper money as its sole medium of circulation, which also marked a turning point in the measure of value from copper coin to silver ingot in medieval China. The Yuan dynasty was also the first national government in world history to use paper money nationwide and established the earliest silver standard monetary system. This paper explores the mechanism of paper money in Yuan China and finds the following. (1) At the beginning of its regime, due to the strict constraints of the silver standard on money issuance, the value of paper money was stable. (2) After the middle stage, the central government had to finance fiscal deficits by issuing more paper money, and inflation was thus unavoidable. Empirical research also finds that the fiscal pressure from multiple provincial rebellions was the most important factor driving the government to issue more paper money; however, contrary to the view of most traditional historians, the emperor’s largesse had no significant effect on the over-insurance of paper money. (3) When the monetary standard switched from silver to paper money, the impact of fiscal deficits, which were driving more paper money issuances, became more severe. Metal standards could restrict money over-issuances, but since there was ever-increasing fiscal pressure caused by warfare, a stable metal standard was unsustainable. Notably, paper money in Yuan China experienced three stages, beginning with stable monetary value to inflation and then to hyperinflation; moreover, this pattern can be generalized to other dynasties.

本文基于货币史文献和相关历史数据，研究世界上最早的纸币北宋交子和南宋会子的运行机制，重点在阐明政府维持币值稳定的措施，及战争造成的财政压力在货币超发中所起的作用。研究发现，发行初期，由于本位制度和回赎机制的作用，纸币运行良好。中后期，由于战争频繁，政府不得不诉诸于发行纸币为战争支出融资，回赎机制不再能良好运行，货币超发和通货膨胀不可避免。本文比较了交子实际发行额和严格本位制度下的发行额，发现最高时前者为后者的35.4倍。除缺乏本位制度外，会子的运行机制和流通状况与交子基本相同。

我国最早发明纸币,建立了世界历史上最早和最完备的纸币管理条例,其货币演变史受到经济学家的关注却不多.本文基于中国历史学家和经济史学家的已有文献,以及作者在这一领域的初步研究,概述宋元纸币流通状况及其在世界货币史上的地位,并简论中西方货币史演变路径的差异.宋元纸币的经历都说明,发行初期政府为了维持币值稳定,采取了多种措施,如建立法偿地位,实行本位制度,将纸币币值锚定某种金属货币,以及定期回赎等,因而纸币流通状况良好.后期币值下降,主要是因为战争带来的财政压力,不得不依赖发行纸币为赤字融资.我国货币体制从宋元明初以纸币为主演变到明中后期及清以白银为主,与世界货币史演变的主流是相悖的,是一种倒退,导致经济的交易成本提高,这是我国历史上经济不发展的原因之一.

基于理论模型与历史事实,并利用1850-2009年的跨国数据,本文实证分析了19世纪中叶以来两次不同背景的经济全球化对政府规模的影响.研究发现:(1)一战前(1850-1913年),经济开放导致政府规模相对收缩,这是由于古典自由主义时期政府扮演“守夜人”角色,其承担的社会保障职能较少,关税收入等税收因素主导了政府规模的变动;(2)二战后(1950-2009年),经济开放促使政府规模显著扩张,原因是政府转型成为“保育员”,通过扩大公共支出规模,全方位地构建“社会安全网”,以应对伴随全球化进程不断加大的外部风险和社会不稳定;(3)基于OECD国家的拓展分析,进一步印证了上述结论.从历史纵深看,经济开放对政府规模的影响并非一成不变,政府职能在其中起着关键作用.本文的研究有助于科学解读政府扩张等现实问题.