IntroductionEnhancing cost efficiency and minimizing production expenses are pivotal for the long-term sustainability of China’s rapeseed industry. This study takes a comprehensive approach by integrating the Cobb–Douglas production function model with an advanced cost function model to empirically assess the influence of farm operation scale on the cost efficiency of rapeseed cultivation. Results reveal a non-linear relationship between the scale of operation and the average cost per mu: as the operational scale expanded, the average cost per mu initially decreased, then increased. Furthermore, economies of scale exhibit regional and topographical heterogeneity.MethodsDrawing on a robust dataset from 3,144 farmers across 14 key rapeseed-producing provinces in China, spanning from 2018 to 2021, our analysis uncovers a nuanced relationship between operational scale and production costs.Results and discussionThe findings indicate that as the scale of operation increases, the unit production cost initially declines, reaching a critical threshold before rising again, reflecting shifts in the production cost structure. This pattern is mirrored in the average cost efficiency loss per kilogram of rapeseed, which also shows an initial decrease followed by a subsequent increase. An analysis of regional heterogeneity reveals that in the eastern plains, the expansion of farm scale effectively curtails the excessive use of labor and seed inputs, leading to greater cost efficiency. Moreover, the findings also reveal that cost efficiency losses are consistently lower in the eastern regions compared to their central and western counterparts, and similarly, plains regions outperform non-plains regions in terms of cost efficiency. These insights offer valuable implications for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders aiming to optimize production practices and enhance the economic sustainability of rapeseed farming in China.

In order to better understand the fluctuation patterns of oilseed product prices and enhance the level of domestic research on oilseed product prices.Taking soybean,rapeseed and peanut as typical representatives of oilseed crops and using the monthly price data of each link in the oilseed industry chain from February 2011 to December 2019 as the basis,a trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1)model was adopted to study the price spillover effect of the upstream,midstream and downstream sectors of the oilseed industry chain.The results showed that there was a price mean spillover effect among all links in the soybean industry chain,and there was no price mean spillover effect between the upstream and midstream sectors of the rapeseed industry chain,and there was no price mean spillover effect between the upstream and downstream sectors of the peanut industry chain.The bidirectional price volatility spillover effects among the various links in the soybean,rapeseed and peanut industry chains was more significant.The government should promote the coordinated development of the relevant agricultural industry chain by establishing a price monitoring system for the agricultural industry chain,a diversified price monitoring system,and a stable market adjustment mechanism.

The relationship between farm size expansion and efficiency is a key topic in agricultural economics, especially for achieving sustainable land use and food security. While existing literature focuses on land productivity, technical efficiency, and total factor productivity, the link between farm size and cost efficiency remains less explored. Cost efficiency is a critical indicator of production effectiveness and directly impacts agricultural sustainability and food security. This paper analyzes how farm size expansion affects the cost efficiency of Chinese rapeseed production, with a particular emphasis on sustainable agricultural production and food security. Our findings indicate an average cost efficiency of 0.740 for rapeseed in China, suggesting potential for improvement. We observe an inverted U-shaped relationship between farm size and rapeseed cost efficiency, with variations based on regional and topographic conditions. Optimal rapeseed farm size is between 10 and 30 mu in eastern and central China, and smaller than 10 mu in western China. Interestingly, in central China and plains regions, larger farm sizes have a less negative impact on cost efficiency. Finally, increasing plot size positively moderates the relationship between farm size and rapeseed cost efficiency, suggesting benefits from expanding both plot and farm sizes simultaneously. These findings provide empirical evidence to inform policy decisions related to sustainable land use, cost-efficient agriculture, and food security.

This study was conducted to examine the effects of agricultural subsidies on the technical efficiency of agricultural production technology and on factor input. It utilized a random frontier production function, instrumental variable method, and threshold regression model. The data used for this analysis consisted of 609 field yield measurements from the National Rapeseed Industry Technology System in 2020. The findings indicate that agricultural subsidies have a substantial impacts and it increases the technical efficiency of production process. Specifically, these subsidies encourage the use of land resources while inhibiting the use of chemical fertilizers. However, this does not have a significant effect on the utilization of labor and capital resources. Furthermore, the impact of agricultural subsidies on production technology efficiency varies depending on the scale of the farming operation. The subsidies significantly enhance the production technology efficiency of farmers with a business scale of less than 0.67 ha, but do not significantly improve the production technology efficiency of farmers with a business scale exceeding 0.67 ha. To optimize the effectiveness of agricultural subsidy policy, three methods and recommendations are proposed: increasing the overall amount of subsidies, expanding and diversifying the types of subsidies, and refining the process of disbursing subsidies.

[目的]农业保险具有防灾减灾的功能,是重要的农村金融工具,体现了惠农富农的政策导向.随着农业保险进入高质量发展阶段,从微观农户层面研究农业保险的收入效应具有重要的现实价值.[方法]文章基于2019年湖北、湖南和河南3省808份微观调查数据,运用多元线性回归模型和分位数回归模型,系统分析了农业保险对农户农业收入水平的影响.[结果]农业保险会显著增加农户的农业收入水平,在使用工具变量方法处理互为因果问题,PSM方法纠正选择性偏误,以及截尾和缩尾处理后,结论依旧稳健.农业保险对不同收入农户的作用效果存在显著的异质性,随着分位数水平的提高,农业保险的增收效果逐渐减弱.[结论]为充分发挥农业保险的保收增收功能,从强政策宣传,提高保险密度与深度;加大财政支持力度,完善保险体系建设;以及实施倾斜性保费补贴和赔偿机制三方面提出相关政策建议.

[目的]从农业生产系统均衡协调发展角度考虑,正确认识生产技术效率与化肥施用效率二者间的辩证关系,实现生产技术效率与化肥施用效率的协调发展,是保障我国粮食安全和推进农业绿色发展的有力举措.[方法]文章基于1978-2019年中国15个油菜生产省(市)的面板数据,运用基于超越对数生产函数的随机前沿分析模型、耦合协调度模型及空间相关性分析探究中国油菜生产技术效率、化肥施用效率及两者间耦合协调度的时空分异特征.[结果](1)1978-2019年中国油菜生产技术效率保持平稳增长态势,且长江下游产区(0.777)＞长江上游产区(0.765)＞春油菜产区(0.741)＞长江中游产区(0.620);(2)1978-2019年中国油菜化肥施用效率整体呈现波动上升趋势,具有明显时段特征,但整体水平不高,明显低于油菜生产技术效率;(3)1978-2019年中国油菜生产技术效率与化肥施用效率耦合协调度稳步增长,且长江下游产区(0.457)＞长江上游产区(0.440)＞春油菜产区(0.396)＞长江中游产区(0.349);(4)中国油菜生产技术效率存在正向空间相关关系,化肥施用效率不存在空间自相关关系,两者间的耦合协调度仅在部分年份存在正向空间自相关关系.[结论]中国油菜生产技术效率和化肥施用效率的耦合协调度经历了由中度失调至濒临失调的发展阶段,且整体呈现向协调方向发展的趋势.

Direct drilling and transplanting are the main cultivation methods of rape, and their popularization has an important impact on rape yield. Based on 446 field yield data of national rape industry technology system from 2020 to 2021, the impact of direct drilling and transplanting on rape yield was analyzed from the perspective of economics, by using Cobb-Douglas production function, multiple linear regression and propensity score matching respectively. The results showed that 60.54% of farmers chose direct drilling and 39.46% chose transplanting to plant rape. Direct drilling and transplanting have a significant impact on rape yield. compared with direct drilling,the rape yield from farmers using transplanting was about 266.16 kg/hm~2 higher. In order to further improve rape yield, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on strengthening direct drilling and supporting technical guidance services, strengthening the breeding and promotion of excellent varieties, and increasing the research and development of precision cultivation technology.

China’s agricultural development urgently needs dynamic transformation and green transformation, from a traditional extensive mode of production to a moderately intensive mode of production that meets the requirements of the new era, with efficiency improvement as the guide to promote green, low-carbon, and sustainable development. Based on the micro-data of farmers in Hunan province from 2015 to 2020, this paper uses the data envelopment analysis method to measure the cost efficiency of rapeseed production and then decompose the cost-efficiency. The Tobit model is used to analyze the influencing factors and cost-efficiency differentials. First, there is considerable room for improvement in the overall cost efficiency of Chinese rapeseed production. The technical efficiency (TE), allocation efficiency (AE), and cost efficiency (CE) of rapeseed production in the survey area are 0.869, 0.701, and 0.609, respectively. Second, allocative efficiency is an important factor affecting the improvement of cost efficiency. The expansion of farmers’ operation scales does not necessarily improve their allocative efficiency, but increases their input of chemical fertilizer and other elements, which may lead to agricultural non-point source pollution. This is not conducive to sustainable environmental development. Third, the relationship between the cost efficiency of crop production and farmers’ operation scale is of an “inverted U-type” curve. That is to say, with the expansion of farmer operation scale, cost-efficiency shows an “increasing first and decreasing later” trend peaking at (6.67,13.33) hm 2 . Fourthly, the distinguishing factors which affect cost efficiency show obvious similarities while reserving differences. Finally, we also suggest countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of R & D investment, industrial support, regional exchange and cooperation, reasonable input of resource factors, and awareness of agricultural green production to promote green and low-carbon development of the rapeseed industry in China.

当前,油菜种植收益下降成为挫伤农户种植积极性、阻碍我国油菜产业发展的直接因素.油菜多功能开发为提高油菜种植收益提供了潜在可行出路.对此,本研究从油菜观光视角展开了油菜种植收益提升路径探索.利用全国油菜产业经济研究室的油菜固定观察点数据,借助逆概率加权回归调整法(IPWRA)分析发现:油菜观光对我国农户的油菜种植收益具有显著促进作用,且该促进作用是通过提高油菜产品商品化率、提高油菜产品质量和优化油菜种植规模三条路径实现的.基于研究结论,本文提出如下政策建议:第一,持续推进适度的油菜"种旅融合",即兼顾油菜种植的产品供给和旅游观光属性.第二,多措并举,打通油菜观光的三条作用机制,放大其增收效应.

为探讨影响油菜产品价格波动的关键金融因素,本研究利用2004年1月至2020年7月的油菜产品的月度价格数据,选取油脂类农产品期货交易额、货币流动性、国际原油价格、人民币汇率和短期资本流动等金融指标构建TVP-SV-VAR模型,分析了五类金融化因素对三种油菜价格波动的影响及时变效应.结果表明,五类金融化因素对油菜产品价格波动具有明显的时变特征.首先,等间隔的脉冲响应表明,五类金融化因素对油菜产品价格的冲击影响主要集中在短期,并且油脂类农产品期货有利于平抑外部冲击对油菜产品价格的影响.第二,时点脉冲响应表明,货币流动性对三种油菜产品现货价格都有显著的拉动作用,国际原油价格对油菜籽和菜籽粕价格有较大的正向影响,对菜籽油价格波动的影响较小,人民币汇率和短期资本流动对油菜产品价格的影响具有较强的时变性和结构性突变.基于上述分析,本研究提出继续完善油菜产品"保险+期货"金融预警体系来稳定价格预期、建立油菜产品价格信息机制为油菜产品市场提供有效信息,以绿色和规模化导向来完善油菜补贴制度等政策建议.

基于促进农民收入增长的目标,分析农机服务、劳动力转移以及农民收入增长三者间关系,并同时纳入不同农户经营规模条件进行分组讨论.考虑到3种变量可能是互为因果关系,构建农机服务、农村劳动力转移与农民收入增长的分析框架,采用PVAR模型分析三者之间的动态影响关系,借用省级面板数据,来验证三者之间的变化关系.结果显示,农机服务是劳动力转移的Granger原因,说明农机服务对劳动力转移具有一定贡献度,此外,大规模区域的粮食农机服务对劳动力转移的贡献度为3.7％,小规模区域为1.1％,说明这种影响关系,在大规模区域与小规模区域之间存在显著差异,大规模区域的农机服务对劳动力转移方差贡献率,明显大于小规模区域,这可能是由于服务规模化并不足以完全替代土地的规模化,其作用大小恰恰会依赖于土地经营规模的发展状况.由此得出政策启示:在推崇服务规模化过程中,不能完全忽视土地规模化发展,反而需要增加二者协调互促,从而更有助于推动农民收入增长.

市场整合是衡量市场机制效率的重要指标,研究国内油料作物空间市场整合关系有利于宏观把握市场的运行情况,对优化地区分工和提高资源配置效率具有重要意义.本文以油菜籽、花生和芝麻为例,依次使用Jo?hansen协整分析、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验,系统分析了国内油料作物的空间市场整合关系.研究表明:从长期来看,油菜籽、花生和芝麻的市场价格之间关联较为密切,国内油料作物市场存在长期整合关系;从短期来看,国内油料作物市场的短期整合程度较高,根据调整速度,从高到低依次是花生、油菜籽和芝麻;从因果关系来看,70％的油菜籽、57.14％的花生和30％的芝麻市场价格之间存在双向因果关系,说明市场价格信息并非完全对称传递.为提高国内油料作物市场整合程度,本文分别提出了改善市场环境、完善信息平台建设和加强构建现代物流体系的建议.

为了解农户对油菜品种不同性状主观需求的群体间差异与未来变化趋势,为油菜品种选育提供决策依据,本研究基于2009-2020年国家油菜产业技术体系农户固定观察点18个省份17701个样本的农户调查数据,使用描述性统计方法分析了农户对9个油菜品种性状主观需求的年度变化趋势,研究了不同地区、农地经营规模、地形区域、年龄和受教育程度农户对油菜品种不同性状主观需求的群体间差异.结果显示:(1)农户对不同油菜品种性状的主观需求程度存在显著差异,按全国年均情况排序,依次为:产量(86.15％)、抗病性(68.02％)、出油率(62.28％)、抗倒性(61.43％)、发芽率(43.47％)、抗虫性(41.41％)、是否适合机械化(35.63％)、是否"双低"(35.60％)、种子价格(30.98％);(2)2009-2020年农户对产量的主观需求下降了6.68％,出油率上升了28.30％,抗虫性下降了17.30％,抗病性下降了1.98％,抗倒性上升了15.61％,种子价格下降了17.60％;2015-2020年农户对发芽率的主观需求上升了33.13％,是否"双低"上升了9.29％,是否适合机械化上升了2.71％;(3)不同农户群体间对油菜品种性状的主观需求存在明显差异.建议从农户需求角度出发,未来在进一步选育高产和高出油率油菜品种的基础上,继续加强具有抗性性状的油菜品种选育,有针对性地进行双低品种、高发芽率品种和适合机械化品种的选育和推广,可以推出一批优质高价油菜品种,增加油菜育种人员科研收益.

采用国家油菜产业技术体系农户固定观测点 2016－2019 年 15 个省 1069 个油菜种植户2890 个样本的非平衡面板数据,建立超越对数生产函数模型,测算了蜂农授粉外部性效果对油菜产量的产出弹性和要素贡献率,并分析了其在平原地区和丘陵山区之间的区域差异.结果表明:蜂农授粉对油菜年产量有显著正向影响,在样本均值处的产出弹性为0.136,仅次于土地(0.861),高于劳动力(－0.009)、化肥(0.043)和其他生产投入(0.076),期间对油菜产量增长贡献为2.885%;各因素对油菜年产量增长的贡献率差异较大,由大到小依次为土地、其他生产投入、化肥、蜂农授粉、劳动力;蜂农授粉对油菜年产量的影响存在明显的区域差异,在平原县表现出更高的产出弹性和贡献率.因此,未来应将农业补贴资金适度向蜂业倾斜,加强蜂业知识宣传,引导种植业与养蜂业建立紧密型合作关系.

为了有效应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击及后续影响,推动油菜产业稳定健康发展,基于国家油菜产业技术体系所提供的微观调研数据,使用描述性统计方法从农户生活、油菜生产、油菜籽加工等维度,分析新冠肺炎疫情对中国油菜产业的影响.结果显示:在种植户生活方面,仅有0.98％的受访户出现食用植物油短缺现象,76.06％的受访户反映家庭总收入完全没有影响或影响很小,但乡村观光旅游同比下降10.24个百分点、蜂农采蜜同比下降4.6个百分点;在油菜生产环节,85.47％的受访户反映田间管理工作量"没有变化"和"小幅度减少";90.38％的受访户反映油菜生产雇工"无影响"和"影响较小";79.06％的受访户反映农用物资价格"总体稳定";98.48％的受访户认为对最终产量的影响较小;但18.21％的受访户反映有"虫害",较2018-2019年度上升4.99个百分点;在油菜籽加工环节,油菜籽加工企业开机率、企业面临的具体困难以及希望获得的政府支持政策均呈现地区差异性.基于此,今后应完善我国油料储备体系建设,注重进口来源多元化,加大科研创新和技术推广力度,优化市场营销体系和推进信息平台建设,制定"一揽子"补贴方案,从而保障中国油菜产业健康发展.

转出土地不再从事农业生产的农民却领取根据农户土地承包面积发放的农业补贴,这引起了不小的批评.本文从补贴的分配效应、农地经营规模、非农就业、市场扭曲、基层政府的工作难度、WTO农业补贴规则、当前土地流转比例、农民心理感受和代际补偿性等方面,以当前实行的耕地地力保护补贴和适度规模经营补贴为例,讨论了按照承包面积发放补贴的合理性与局限性.研究发现,2016年中国农业"三项补贴"改革之后,实行的主要农业补贴项目的 发放方式是恰当的.基于研究结论,对未来"十四五"期间的补贴发放方式提出以下建议:(1)耕地地力保护补贴继续在主要根据农户承包面积发放的基础上,压实耕地地力保护责任;(2)适度规模经营补贴继续在依据规模农业经营主体实际经营面积发放的基础上,采取更加多元灵活的发放方式;(3)其它按照土地面积发放补贴的项目参照农业"三项补贴"改革思路,对普通农户与当期生产面积脱钩,按照固定的基期生产面积进行补贴,对规模农业经营主体按照当期生产面积进行补贴,并将增量补贴资金向其适度倾斜.

为了研判中国油菜的未来变化趋势,分析我国近12年的油菜生产趋势,为品种选育提供借鉴.基于2008-2019年国家油菜产业技术体系农户固定观察点18省份7916个样本的油菜成熟期田间测产数据,使用描述性统计方法汇报和分析了我国油菜的播栽方式、种植密度、株高、分枝、结实、单位面积产量和灾害情况等生产性状在12年间的变化趋势.结果显示,12年间,油菜直播比例上升30.74个百分点,种植密度上升56.66％,有效分枝数下降16.05％,分枝部位高度上升50.20％,株高上升8.82％,全株有效角果数下降22.14％,每角粒数上升3.02％,千粒重下降0.62％,单株平均产量下降22.38％,理论单产上升15.00％,实际单产上升14.03％,冻害指数下降13.57个百分点,菌核病指数下降0.83个百分点,其它病虫害发病率上升2.34个百分点.建议未来在着力选育高产油菜优良品种的基础上,继续加强耐密植、有效分枝多、全株角果数多以及更适应环境的油菜品种选育,同时结合各地实际情况对农户油菜栽培方式进行宣传引导,合理确定种植密度.

为探究"服务规模化"与"土地规模化"二者间的关系,以及进一步明晰我国农业规模化发展方向与路径.基于全国省级层面2000-2016年期间的面板数据,从不同土地规模的视角,分析农机服务对粮食生产技术效率的影响.研究结果表明:农机服务对粮食生产技术效率有显著的正向影响,其中,农机服务1的影响系数为0.0501,农机服务2的影响系数为0.0339.此外,农机服务对粮食生产技术效率影响程度与农户的土地规模呈正比,在大规模区域,农机服务1和农机服务2的影响系数分别为0.0619、0.0459,在小规模区域,对应的影响系数分别是0.0587、0.0278,说明农机服务对粮食生产技术效率的影响会受限于土地规模大小.由此可以得出,"服务规模化"并不能完全的替代"土地规模化",反而,土地规模会反过来影响农机服务的作用效果.由此可以得到的政策启示是,在积极推进我国农机服务发展的同时,也应注重推动土地规模化进程,避免过分强调服务规模化进而走向另一种极端的倾向.

基于安徽省、江西省、湖北省、湖南省4个长江中游粮食主产省份979户农户的微观调查数据,利用Ordered Probit模型,实证分析了经营规模对异质性生态生产行为的影响.结果 表明:(1)农户生态生产行为可分为投入减量型生态生产行为和技术采用型生态生产行为.(2)经营规模与投入减量型生态生产行为呈U型关系,与技术采用型生态生产行为呈正比例关系.(3)进一步区分不同经营主体,农户投入减量型生态生产行为的影响因素在小农户与种粮大户间存在差异,而技术采用型生态生产行为的影响因素在小农户与种粮大户间差异较小.对此,政府应加强公益性农民施药用肥的知识与技能培训,并在对象选择上,考虑农户土地经营规模的区间及其经营主体类型;在内容倚重上,不仅要强化农户学习科学的施药用肥技术,更要普及过量施用农药化肥的负外部性的相关知识.