Since the onset of the U.S.–China trade conflict in 2018, the United States has repeatedly imposed import tariffs on Chinese goods, and China has responded with retaliatory measures. Within a deeply interconnected global economy, we examine the role of the third country in shaping the macroeconomic effects of U.S.–China trade conflicts. In particular, when also subject to U.S. import tariffs, how does the third country’s behavior influence the effectiveness of China’s retaliatory measures? Using a three-country DSGE model that includes China, the United States, and the rest of the world (RoW), we find that U.S. tariffs reduce China’s exports to the United States; however, China partially offsets this decline by increasing exports to third-country markets, thereby mitigating the overall adverse effects. Under the U.S. “reciprocal tariff” policy, both China and the third country incur economic losses, and the effectiveness of China’s retaliation depends critically on the third country’s response. If the third country also retaliates, bilateral trade between China and the third country increases significantly, leading to substantial improvements in both economies, while the United States becomes the largest loser due to a deterioration in its global trade position.

Asset price crashes and banking credit crunches are synchronized events. This paper develops a New Keynesian model with rational bubbles and endogenous banking frictions and identifies a two-way feedback loop: banking frictions increase the liquidity premium of bubbles, while bubbles serve as essential collateral for banking credit. A crash in bubble price reduces credit demand, which in turn deteriorates the banking balance sheet and increases credit spread. Policy analysis reveals a substitution effect: central bank credit guarantees reduce the liquidity demand for bubbles, dampening the effectiveness of bubble-support policies.

This paper examines how external risk shocks transmit to China's macroeconomy and identifies the dominant transmission channel. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with crossborder risk contagion, estimated via Bayesian methods using China-U.S. data. Simulations show that external risk shocks raise China's domestic market risk, increase corporate risk premia, reduce cross-border capital inflows, and weaken trade, investment, and output. We then estimate a structural vector autoregression model and find consistent evidence that risk contagion, credit, cross-border capital flows, and trade serve as key transmission channels. Variance decomposition indicates that risk contagion is the most important channel, accounting for about 17% of output fluctuations. Counterfactual analysis further shows that weakening this channel substantially reduces the macroeconomic effects of external shocks. These findings suggest that macroprudential tools and financial market reforms that insulate the domestic economy from external risk can effectively safeguard macroeconomic stability.

This study gathered rating data from diverse countries and regions between 1995 and 2022 to assess the influence of the level of political and economic interactions with the United States on credit ratings. It employs a random-effects ordered logit model for empirical analysis. The findings reveal that for countries aligned with the United States or members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, sovereign credit ratings reflect their economic alliance with the United States. Specifically, higher levels of direct investment and bilateral trade with the United States correlate with enhanced sovereign credit ratings. Conversely, for other countries, sovereign credit ratings primarily reflect the United States' political stance. This is evident when a lower human rights index, indicating serious human rights concerns perceived by the United States, results in a downgrade of the sovereign credit rating.

In financially segmented economies, declining risk-free rates may fail to stimulate corporate credit. Documenting a severed transmission mechanism in China, this analysis shows that flight-to-safety shocks paradoxically tighten corporate credit. A multi-sector DSGE model with safe-asset scarcity and institutional segmentation demonstrates that safe-asset demand induces deposit outflows, forcing constrained intermediaries to contract corporate lending. This financial crowding-out channel explains the coexistence of record-low Treasury yields and elevated corporate spreads. Targeted "buy-short, sell-long" operations effectively accommodate safety demand and stabilize credit, whereas conventional longbond purchases during scarcity traps exacerbate intermediary stress, thereby inducing a suspension of such operations.

China's increasing use of structural monetary policy raises questions about its optimal role. This study investigates when and how SMP should be deployed using a multisector DSGE model incorporating distinct financing conditions and intermediary constraints for SOEs and POEs. We find that credit tightening disproportionately raises POE credit spreads, which conventional policy struggles to correct. Credit shocks significantly amplify resource misallocation and necessitate active SMP to address these specific distortions, stabilize the economy, and mitigate associated welfare losses. Our findings indicate that the justification for SMP is strongest when credit shocks significantly interact with underlying financial asymmetries between sectors.

Financial cycles involving asset bubbles frequently coincide with the cyclical expansion and contraction of credit conditions. The collapse of asset and credit bubbles frequently precedes financial crises and economic recessions. We develop a small open economy DSGE model that incorporates asset bubbles and banking frictions. Credit-constrained firms trade in intrinsically useless bubble assets. Financial intermediaries, constrained by their balance sheets, introduce banking friction into financial markets. The static analysis suggests that increases in foreign interest rates unfavorably impact the formation of domestic bubbles. Dynamic analysis indicates that asset bubbles amplify macroeconomic fluctuations, with banking leverage constraints intensifying this effect. Therefore, asset bubbles amplify and propagate economic fluctuations. Unconventional monetary policy, macroprudential policy, and bubbly bailout policy could mitigate the amplification effects of banking leverage constraints and asset bubble bursts on macroeconomic fluctuations, which are mediated through reducing risk premiums, curbing capital outflows, and sustaining asset bubble channels, respectively. Finally, combining unconventional monetary policies with bubbly bailout policies and macroprudential policies yields superior outcomes.

The term premium of Chinese corporate bonds has become an important factor driving up the long-term financing rate, which is also highly synchronized with the US policy rate. We establish a Proxy SVAR model to investigate US monetary policy spillovers on the term premium, and we find that tightening US monetary policy leads to capital outflow from China, increasing the term premium, high long-term financing costs, and ultimately decreasing investment and output. We further construct a multi-sector open-economy DSGE model with financial friction to explain empirical findings. Results show that after a rise in the US policy rate, capital flows out from China and the balance sheet of financial intermediaries deteriorates, thereby causing a decline in long-term asset allocation and an increase in the term premium. Counterfactual analysis indicates that US monetary policy spillovers are amplified by maturity mismatch regarding the expansion of short-term foreign debt, holding of longer-duration bonds, and tightening of borrowing constraints. Finally, we compare the effects of short-term rate policy, asset purchase, and macro-prudential stabilization tax policy.

Real estate is a major component of China's national wealth, serving as a key store of value. Property taxes potentially influence households' belief in the stability of the housing market, resulting in varying effects of such taxes. This paper constructs an equilibrium model of stores of value to examine these effects under diverse beliefs. The results show that property taxes can constrain the growth of housing prices if households maintain their belief in the future stability of housing values. However, damaging this belief would lead to a safety trap with a decline in output. The paper also demonstrates that using tax revenue to finance government bond issuance can be an effective way to lower housing prices and increase output.

This paper quantifies the spillover effects and explores the transmission channels in a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Using a panel local projection model to identify Chinese monetary policy shock by the change in the 7-day repo rate in the interest rate swap market, we find that China's monetary tightening causes a significant drop in global output, with a larger decline in emerging economies than in advanced economies. Moreover, spillovers of Chinese monetary policy mainly depend on the trade channel, while the exchange rate channel and the financial channel are insignificant. To further explain empirical findings, we develop a basic two-country model and unveil the inherent logic.

Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world. This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies, taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks. The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables. Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output. This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies, while the transmission path did not change. The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle, although it does not drive the global financial cycle.

中国与美国货币政策外溢效应是否存在差异?作用渠道是否不同?为了回答这些问题,本文建立了 一个SVAR模型,同时纳入两国宏观经济金融变量,实证检验了中国和美国货币政策的相互溢出效应.研究发现,两国货币政策的外溢存在明显的非对称性.进一步地,本文充分考虑两国贸易结构、资本管制程度和金融市场摩擦程度的差异,构建了一个包含金融摩擦的两国DSGE模型,探讨非对称性的内在逻辑.具体而言,中国货币政策的贸易渠道溢出效应更为明显,即中国提高利率后,国内经济活动收缩,投资和产出下降,进而导致中国从美国的投资品进口下降,使得美国的产出下降;而美国货币政策的金融渠道溢出效应更为明显,即美国提高利率后,资本流出中国,进而导致中国企业融资成本上升,企业净值下降,在金融加速器作用下,企业外部融资风险溢价进一步上升,从而加剧中国产出下滑.在当前中美货币政策分化的背景下,本文研究旨在厘清两国货币政策的跨国传导机制,为实现中国经济平稳增长提供政策启示.

2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,世界面临的不确定性迅速上升,新冠疫情的暴发更是给世界经济带来前所未有的冲击,多重风险叠加严重影响了新兴经济体宏观经济的平稳运行.本文采用面板局部投影法,考察风险冲击对新兴经济体的影响,发现杠杆率较高、金融市场摩擦较大、经济周期处于衰退阶段的新兴经济体,会遭受更严重的负面冲击.基于此,本文构建一个小国开放DSGE模型,详细分析全球金融风险冲击影响新兴经济体宏观经济波动的影响机制.研究发现:对于杠杆率较高和金融市场摩擦程度较大的新兴经济体,风险冲击会使企业风险溢价上升幅度更大,对经济造成更严重的负面影响;对于资本流动顺周期性较强的新兴经济体,风险冲击会显著抬高国家主权风险溢价,使国内基准利率上升,放大风险冲击的负面影响.因此,本文认为,新兴经济体通过控制宏观杠杆率、完善金融基础设施、逆周期调节跨境资本流动等手段,能够有效降低风险冲击带来的负面影响.

本文基于DSGE范式发现房价波动会导致宏观经济的结构性波动,金融摩擦和土地用途分割在传导机制中扮演关键作用.因此,房价调控政策应兼顾平抑房价和调节宏观经济结构双重目标.本文对比了六种房地产调控政策,研究发现:需求侧调控能较好地矫正经济结构但会抑制福利,供给侧调控可提高福利但需要较多投入,政策间的协调搭配是必要的;短期增加商品房供应反而会刺激投资性购房行为,导致更强扭曲效应,提高无产权保障性住房的供给可克服供给侧政策的两难困境.

This article analyzes cross-country data encompassing 130 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019 to investigate the correlation between financial crises, labor market frictions, and economic volatility. The empirical findings demonstrate that financial crises have a milder impact on real gross domestic product (GDP) in developing countries with flexible labor markets. This trend also applies to non-eurozone developed countries, where labor market flexibility aids crisis mitigation. However, this pattern doesn't hold for eurozone countries. Further examination of developing nations reveals that those with heightened labor market flexibility tend to experience reduced adverse effects on non-tradable sectors, thereby mitigating the impact on real GDP.

In an era of financial globalization, cross-border capital flows hugely affect a country’s economic conditions, but their cyclical properties remain controversial. This paper takes terrorist attacks as exogenous shocks to study whether financial openness helps an economy recover from a crisis through inducing capital inflows, or amplifies the adverse effects by allowing for capital flight. With a panel dataset from 1990 to 2016, we show that cross-border capital flows are largely pro-cyclical, especially for non-OECD countries. A higher level of financial openness is associated with net capital outflows in response to terrorist incidents, mainly due to the decrease of the aggregate capital inflows by foreign investors. This mechanism also applies to disaggregate cross-border capital flows such as FDI, portfolio investment and debt investment. Furthermore, there is no sign that exchange rate adjustment insulates non-OECD countries from net capital outflows following a terrorist attack.

本文通过构建一个多部门的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析减税降费的作用路径和效果,挖掘提升其效果的最优策略和政策搭配措施.研究发现,一方面,减税降费的效果与企业融资约束程度高度相关,对于融资约束较强的企业,减税降费改善了企业净值和借贷成本,并通过"金融加速器效应"撬动了企业投资和产出提升,而对融资约束较低的企业减税降费政策拉动作用则相对较小.另一方面,如果大量依靠政府债务来支撑,减税降费可能会抬高市场利率、挤出企业投资.为了减缓这种挤出效应,应通过降低存款准备金或者对金融机构财政注资,降低企业融资成本.

2008年以来,在中国GDP下滑和TFP对经济增长的贡献度下降的同时,地方政府对土地财政的依赖度越来越大.对此本文构建了一个含有基建和非基建部门的增长模型,研究发现房价上涨为地方政府带来了大规模的土地收益,这笔资金流向基建部门导致其投资和劳动力投入过度增加,降低了资源配置效率,放缓了经济转型和经济增速.数值模拟的结果表明,将资金投向生产率更高或者正外部性更大的部门,能在一定程度上缓解土地财政带来的负面影响.

Scholars have focused on macroeconomic fundamentals and speculative value to understand China's housing boom; however, this study empirically finds that great economic uncertainty and bleak economic prospects increase housing prices. We study this flight-to-housing effect in a two-regional model with housing. The results indicate that a bubble burst shock contributed to the safe-asset shortage in China following the 2008 global financial crisis, prompting households' demand for housing assets as stores of value and generating a housing boom. The financial market collapse and economic slowdown intensified the shortage and fueled the housing boom. Moreover, our findings suggest that the "housing purchase restriction policy" cannot curb the housing boom; the policy transfers the boom from one region to the other. This study provides a systematic framework to understand China's housing boom from the new standpoint of housing as a safe asset.