Using data from the CHFS between 2015 and 2019, this study examines how debt burdens influence household net wealth. The results indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship, where moderate debt promotes wealth accumulation, but excessive debt reduces household net wealth. The mechanism analysis highlights that liquidity constraints and potential investment are key channels. This nonlinear relationship is especially pronounced among urban, highly educated and affluent households. Younger and older households show slightly greater sensitivity, while economically disadvantaged households can experience increased net wealth even with higher debt levels. Additionally, the growth of digital finance and real estate markets intensifies both the positive impact of moderate borrowing and the negative consequences of excessive debt. The analysis also demonstrates that informal private lending significantly reduces household wealth, formal credit from banks and credit cards supports wealth accumulation, and the effect of internet-based lending remains uncertain.

Using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study demonstrates the impact of married women's labor participation on household financial vulnerability. The results show that married women's labor participation significantly reduces household financial vulnerability. Using regression analysis, the study finds that raising household savings rate, promoting insurance participation, and enhancing social interaction are the main channels. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of married women's labor participation on household financial vulnerability is more significant in households with low-education, low-income, low-asset, rural areas, and with children or elderly people. Further analysis finds that married women participating in non-agricultural labor and rural married women continuing to participate non-agricultural labor after reaching retirement age can significantly reduce household financial vulnerability. This study not only enriches the literature on both labor economics and household finance, but also provides a reference basis for the formulation of policies related to preventing and resolving household financial risks.

Understanding the relationship between air pollution and poverty is essential for improving livelihoods and fostering common prosperity. While existing studies have concentrated on the impact of extreme climate and natural disasters on poverty, the adverse effects of air pollution are neglected. Using the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2016 to 2018, this study investigates air pollution's effect on household vulnerability to poverty, including the mechanisms and heterogeneity. Results shows that air pollution significantly heightens household vulnerability to poverty. This effect stems from air pollution lowering incomes and increasing healthcare burden. Heterogeneity analysis shows that air pollution negatively impacts households with low wealth and poorly educated, weak social networks, and those in developing, non-coastal, and high-terrain cities. Furthermore, air pollution more severely affects households with high consumption volatility and low wealth compared to those with low vulnerability. We also discover that the adverse effects of air pollution on household vulnerability to poverty diminish with increased physical capital. Local governments are encouraged to intensify efforts in reducing emissions through improved environmental regulations, protecting residents from pollution-induced harm.

With ongoing advancements in financial technology, digital finance has experienced rapid development in China, leveraging big data, cloud computing, and social platforms. Service consumption plays a crucial role as an indicator of households' ability to achieve consumption upgrades and overall happiness. Internet financing and payment represent two primary types of digital finance. This article aims to assess their impacts on household service consumption. Both types of digital finance have a significant potential to increase household service consumption, which is categorized into seven distinct categories in this article. Digital finance demonstrates a notable ability to enhance consumption in various categories, including daily services, transportation and communication, healthcare, education, entertainment, and tourism. However, it has no significant impact on medical consumption. Finally, the empirical results reveal that digital finance exhibits heterogeneous effects on the service consumption of households with different characteristics.

Expanding and enhancing the quality of consumption is crucial to satisfy the increasing demand for a higher standard of living. However, the rising risk of chronic diseases impacts not only the level of consumption but also impedes the optimization of consumption patterns. This research utilizes Staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences (DDD) models to evaluate the effects of chronic disease shocks on both the levels and structures of household consumption, leveraging data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) across four survey waves from 2012 to 2018. Additionally, the study examines the effects and mechanisms of the multi-level health insurance system in mitigating the impact of chronic disease shocks. The study discerns a significant decrease in household consumption expenditure, obstruction in the enhancement of consumption structures, and a constriction of consumption diversity attributable to chronic disease shocks. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that the impact of chronic shocks varies across factors such as age, capital endowment, urban versus rural residence, and the availability of healthcare resources. Moreover, the analysis highlights the heterogeneous mitigating effects of the multi-level health insurance system, particularly through diminishing out-of-pocket medical expenses and the propensity for precautionary savings. The findings accentuate the imperative for the enhancement and equalization of the multi-level health insurance system to fortify household consumption, offering significant policy insights for the realization of the “Healthy China” vision. JEL Classification : P36, D12.

The household sector in China faces economic risks resulting from uncertainties in the internal and external envi-ronment and urgently needs a measure to provide early warning of them.In contrast to the approach of measurement methods that start from the sources of risk,this study focuses on illustrating the outcomes generated by economic risks.Indeed,the study constructs a model to measure economic vulnerability that reflects changes in the living standards of heterogeneous households.Combining the data collected by the CHFS over the three survey in the period from 2015 to 2019,a picture of the economic vulnerability of Chinese households is obtained,which ultimately provides a general direction for the prevention and mitigation of economic risks at the regional and household levels. The measurements revealed the following:(1)From the national perspective,households in China were generally eco-nomically vulnerable after 2015,among which the proportion of households with poverty vulnerability decreased from period to period,while the proportion of economically vulnerable households with high living standards increased rapidly;(2)From the regional perspective,the horizontal gap between regions in the proportion of economically vulnerable households was evi-dent in 2015,and then the gap decreased from period to period.Meanwhile,households'vertical economic vulnerability sta-tus in most regions was comparable to the national level.Different levels of economic development resulted in different direc-tions in preventing and eliminating economic risks in different regions;(3)Regarding household composition characteristics,the impact of gender of the household head on household economic vulnerability gradually decreased.However,as the house-holder's education,financial literacy and health increased,there was a trend towards a mitigated general economic vulnerabil-ity.Thus,the study proposes some essential factors in preventing and mitigating household economic risks at the household level,include reducing the urban-rural divide,improving household members'education and financial literacy,improving the medical insurance system,guiding households to make moderate investments,and adequately maintaining social relation-ships.

促进居民消费提质扩容是畅通国内大循环和有效应对"三重压力"的重要战略基点.本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观数据考察了金融素养对居民消费结构升级的影响.研究发现:金融素养提升有效促进居民消费支出增加和结构升级,有助于降低消费结构中基础型消费而对发展型消费起到显著促进作用.基于异质性的分析表明,中等收入群体家庭素养提升更有助于促进家庭总体消费和发展型消费,通货膨胀认知消费促进效应主要集中在发展型消费领域,金融素养提升更有助于中老年家庭消费潜力释放和优化升级.金融素养主要通过缓解信贷约束、增强风险防范能力及提升投资收益等渠道对居民家庭消费支出和结构升级发挥作用,此外不同于一般认知能力,金融素养消费效应充分体现了金融知识属性和金融决策内涵.通过采用评分累加金融素养指标和剔除耐用品的消费指标,从样本中剔除拥有金融投资经验家庭及利用工具变量法克服模型内生性等做法,验证研究结果稳健可靠.本文研究为有针对性地提升居民金融素养、充分释放居民消费潜力和畅通国内大循环提供了有益启示.

本文基于 2017 年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,采用加权平均夏普比率和索提诺比率两个衡量指标,探究社会养老保险对家庭投资组合有效性的影响.研究结果显示,社会养老保险能够显著促进家庭参与风险金融市场和提高家庭投资组合有效性.机制分析表明,社会养老保险主要通过减少预防性储蓄路径优化家庭投资组合.异质性分析表明,社会养老保险对家庭投资组合的优化作用在农村地区、西部地区及低收入水平家庭中更加显著.进一步分析发现,社会养老保险对家庭投资组合有效性的边际影响具有生命周期效应,相较处于其他生命周期阶段的家庭,更能够显著提升老年家庭的投资组合有效性.相关结论有助于厘清社会养老保险作用于家庭投资行为的影响机制,为加快全民养老保险体系的改革、提高政策精准程度、缩小居民金融资源鸿沟、增加家庭财产性收入、实现国内大循环的目标提供政策参考.

本文根据家庭流动性资产配置行为将异质性消费者识别为受流动性约束(hand-to-mouth)家庭与不受流动性约束(non-hand-to-mouth)家庭,探讨了住房资产对家庭消费的影响是否在这两类家庭中存在显著差异,以及产生差异的原因,并进一步讨论了住房资产如何影响这两类家庭之间的转换.使用中国家庭金融调查2015-2019年三轮追踪数据进行实证分析,结果表明,样本期内总体上住房资产对城镇家庭消费的影响显著为正,但不受流动性约束家庭显著高于受流动性约束家庭,说明持有较多流动性资产家庭的住房资产对消费的正向影响更大.从机制上分析,相较于受流动性约束家庭,不受流动性约束家庭住房资产提升信贷可得性的效应更大,并且更能通过财产性收入的获取来促进家庭消费.异质性家庭动态转换的分析印证了住房资产的增长有助于受流动性约束家庭转换为不受流动性约束家庭,并通过这种转换进一步促进家庭消费能力增长,而住房债务负担则需保持在一定限度内,才能发挥促进消费的作用.

以2011年在上海和重庆两地推行的房产税改革试点作为准自然实验,基于CFPS家庭微观数据采用倍差法实证分析了房产税改革对城镇居民家庭消费支出的影响和具体作用渠道.研究发现,总体上看,房产税改革试点政策对城镇居民家庭消费支出具有显著的负向影响,这种抑制作用对重庆城镇家庭和有且仅有一套房家庭的消费支出尤其明显.房产税改革试点政策的收入效应、预防性储蓄效应和负向财富效应是其影响城镇居民家庭消费支出的作用渠道,通过降低城镇居民家庭的可支配收入、增加预防性储蓄以及减少住房资产价值,进而挤出其家庭消费支出.研究结论对于未来房产税的推广和居民消费潜力的释放提供了政策启示.

充分释放居民消费潜力是加快构建新发展格局的重要战略基点.基于中国消费金融现状及投资者教育调查数据,探析了新发展格局下居民消费潜力释放机制与路径.研究结果表明,中国居民金融素养水平普遍较低且呈现典型结构性异质性特征;金融素养主要通过消费借贷、风险规避和资产配置机制影响居民消费行为;在较低消费水平上金融素养对消费的促进效应呈现增加趋势,而在中高水平上表现出逐步衰减态势;进一步地,低收入群体金融素养提升有助于释放更大消费潜力,且金融素养对消费结构中通讯与医疗保健支出呈现出更强效应.因此,应通过有效拓展普惠金融服务边界和构筑金融知识常态化普及机制等措施,切实 提升居民金融素养水平和优化结构,以期为畅通国内大循环、形成国内强大市场和构建新发展格局提供有益启示.

(上接2023年第1期) 社会保障作为满足居民多层次物质需求的基础性保障手段,对于促进居民消费水平提升和实现国家经济高质量发展具有重要意义.具体而言,社会保障政策的风险缓解效应可以通过降低居民未来的风险预期及收支不确定性来提升当期消费能力.此外,正如前文第三部分论述的那样,收入分配不均是导致我国消费需求整体低迷的重要因素[53][112].而国内各项社会保障的政策实践均证明了社会保障对收入再分配的重要影响[113],其资源分配效应在调节收入差距过程中具有较高的贡献率,对于提升低收入人群的边际消费倾向和防止社会财富两极分化具有积极作用,进而能够推动社会资源公平配置和缓解"待遇差"问题,在增强居民风险应对能力的过程中提振消费信心,营造良好的市场经济环境.然而,与发达国家相比,我国的社会保障支出水平相对较低.2020年,我国社会保障与就业支出仅相当于GDP的3.2％.而同年美国的社会福利开支相当于GDP的18.8％,日本的这一数据为22.02％,德国为26.57％,同为新兴经济体的韩国为8.85％①,均远高于我国的支出水平.在此背景下,国内学者们主要围绕社会保险与社会救助这两大类对不同类型的社会保障与居民消费的关系展开了针对性的研究,探索好钢用在刀刃上的路径.

利用2001-2016年我国制造业27个行业的数据,从结构合理化与高级化两个维度探讨产业政策和贸易政策协同作用对制造业结构优化升级的影响.研究发现:产业政策和贸易政策的协同作用不仅显著提高了制造业的结构合理化和高级化程度,还会强化二者的单独作用效果.进一步研究表明:制造业行业技术水平的差异会影响产业政策和贸易政策的作用效果,产业政策和贸易政策的协同对高端技术行业的结构合理化促进作用显著,而在中端技术行业中的这种促进作用则体现在结构高级化.

我国"多轨制"养老金与消费不平等特征共存.本文利用中国家庭金融调查2013年、2015年和2017年面板数据实证分析"多轨制"养老金对家庭消费相对剥夺的影响.研究发现,"多轨制"养老金不平衡显著加剧了家庭消费相对剥夺.影响机制为:不同养老保险制度降低家庭收入相对剥夺的程度存在较大差异,进而加剧了家庭消费相对剥夺.这种影响在食品、生活用品及服务和医疗保健等消费类型上更显著.异质性分析表明,"多轨制"养老金对女性户主、养老金依赖度高、农村和中西部地区的家庭消费相对剥夺影响更大.扩展分析结果显示,"多轨制"养老金通过预期效应加剧了未退休家庭的消费相对剥夺,养老金制度并轨改革通过调节效应减弱了未退休家庭的预期效应.因此,应加快健全覆盖全民、统筹城乡、公平统一的多层次社会养老保障体系.

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2015和2017年的数据,采用PSM和PSM-DID等方法分析了是否获得私人转移支付以及私人转移支付规模对家庭消费的影响.研究发现:私人转移支付为促进消费带来了正向的边际效应;获得私人转移支付有助于促进家庭消费结构升级,尤其是促进发展和享受型消费支出占总消费支出比例的提升;农村家庭、户主年龄越小的家庭、户主受教育程度越高的家庭、低财富家庭、高债务收入比家庭、中高消费家庭以及流动性资产不足的家庭获得私人转移支付对其消费支出的促进作用更大.机制分析表明,私人转移支付可以通过缓减流动性约束、提升主观幸福感两种机制促进家庭消费支出.研究有助于理解转移支付给家庭带来的经济影响,也有助于健全多层次收入转移视域下宏观政策体系,为新时期通过转移支付手段提高人民福利水平、推动全体人民共同富裕提供了参考依据.

边际消费倾向是反映消费增长潜力的重要依据.本文基于中国家庭金融调查数据,使用门槛回归估计了流动性比率的阈值,提供了关于月光族(hand-to-mouth)家庭的替代识别标准,并重点分析了家庭杠杆率、信贷可得性和流动性比率对暂时性收入变化下边际消费倾向的影响.研究发现,居民边际消费倾向存在异质性,家庭拥有的信贷缓冲和资产缓冲是边际消费倾向异质性的重要来源.高杠杆率家庭的边际消费倾向高于低杠杆率家庭.相比没有信贷的家庭而言,有信贷的家庭的边际消费倾向更高.我国至少有36％的家庭是月光族家庭,且富裕型月光族家庭的边际消费倾向高于非月光族家庭,尤其是具有高杠杆率的富裕型月光族家庭对暂时性收入变化的敏感性比其他家庭更高.这意味着家庭信贷和资产配置在消费对收入变化的反应中发挥着重要的调节作用.本文结论对于评估和优化消费刺激政策效果具有一定的参考价值,也为全面促进消费提供了新思路.

鉴于尚未有文献基于中国的微观数据探讨外部关税减让如何影响家庭消费这一极具现实意义的话题,基于1997-2009年城镇住户调查(UHS)微观数据,利用各行业外部关税税率差异以及各城市加入WTO前的产业结构差异,本文构建了城市层面的外部关税水平指标,并采用双重差分法识别了外部关税减让对家庭消费的影响.研究发现:①外部关税减让促进了家庭消费支出的增长和家庭人均消费支出的增长,降低了平均消费倾向,并促进了家庭消费结构升级.该结论在替换核心解释变量、预期效应检验、考虑其他因素的干扰、安慰剂检验、更换样本等条件下依旧稳健.②潜在的影响机制在于,外部关税减让通过影响家庭收入水平、收入不平等程度和物价水平三个路径,进而影响了家庭消费.③异质性检验结果显示,外部关税减让对家庭消费的影响在不同地区、不同房屋产权的家庭、不同就业部门的家庭和不同收入结构的家庭之间存在一定的差异.最后,依据本文结论提出了加快"正在谈判的自贸区"的相关进程并切实推进双边关税减让安排、推动"一带一路"倡议与自贸区战略更好结合的政策建议.

鉴于鲜有文献基于中国的微观数据探讨贸易 自由化如何影响家庭消费这一极具现实意义的话题,本文基于1997-2009年城镇住户调查(UHS)微观数据,利用各行业关税税率差异以及加入WTO前各城市产业结构差异,构建了地区层面的初始关税水平指标,并采用双重差分法识别了贸易 自由化对家庭消费的影响.研究发现,关税削减冲击抑制了家庭消费支出和家庭人均消费支出的增长,抑制了平均消费倾向,并抑制了家庭消费结构升级.该结论在替换核心解释变量、预期效应检验、考虑其他因素的干扰、安慰剂检验、更换样本等条件下依旧稳健.潜在的影响机制分析发现,关税削减冲击通过影响家庭收入水平、收入不平等程度和物价水平三个路径来影响家庭消费.异质性检验结果显示,关税削减冲击对家庭消费的影响在不同地区、不同家庭之间存在一定的差异.本文据此提出了建立与关税削减冲击挂钩的津贴保障制度、着力引导劳动力要素合理畅通有序流动、不断提升高等教育公共服务能力和水平,以及引导非正规就业规范化发展的政策建议.

网络消费作为一种新型消费业态和模式,已成为扩大内需的新力量.本文应用Probit模型及处理效应等方法,在普惠金融发展视角下研究了家庭的网络消费行为.结果显示,普惠金融发展显著正向地提升了网络消费家庭的比例和频率,且经过渐进的增长,网络消费家庭的总消费水平更高、消费结构较优,在城镇家庭里更明显.而通过便利支付、缓解流动性约束、提高家庭收入三种机制,普惠金融发展还提升了这些家庭的网络消费支出额.异质性分析也得出了一系列丰富的结论.加深家庭金融参与程度,加快地区数字普惠金融的发展,帮助老年群体、低收入群体迈过数字鸿沟,能更大程度上普及网络消费,进一步扩大内需.

本文从家庭金融资产配置多样性和家庭金融资产配置有效性两个维度,使用2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,基于移动支付的视角,探讨数字金融对居民家庭金融资产配置的影响.通过研究发现,移动支付能够显著提高家庭金融资产配置多样性和有效性程度.机制分析表明,移动支付能够通过提高金融知识水平、提高财产性收入水平及缓解流动性约束等路径优化家庭金融资产配置.异质性分析表明,移动支付对家庭金融资产配置的优化作用在城镇地区、东部地区、受教育程度较高及金融知识水平较高的家庭中更加显著.得出相关结论有助于厘清数字金融作用于家庭投资行为的影响机制,有利于政府及金融机构制定相应的促进金融创新举措,提高政策精准程度,增加居民财产性收入,提升家庭福祉水平,促进国内大循环目标的实现.