2020年5月2日,黔西南出现中β尺度的强对流天气,安龙钱相出现42 m·s-1灾害性大风,最大冰雹直径普安罗汉25 mm,最大小时雨强册亨站66 mm·h-1.对常规地面观测资料、高空观测资料、多普勒天气雷达资料以及NOAA的HYSPLIT模式同期驱动资料等分析,结果表明:①本次过程主要受高空槽、中低层切变线、地面辐合线、云南热低压等系统共同影响;②大气不稳定层结明显,抬升凝结高度较低,20时百色探空呈"沙漏"结构,0～6 km强垂直风切变、高干暖盖指数、对流层中层为明显干层、高层动量下传均利于雷暴大风的形成;湿球温度0℃层高度和-20℃层高度利于大冰雹生长;水汽充沛有利于短时强降水,后向轨迹模式HYSPLIT模拟出4条兴仁站水汽输送路径:本地、西、西南、东北路径;③过程中卫星红外云图上为椭圆形雹暴云团发展移动,TBB中心低于-60℃,对流云顶伸展较高;④3条回波路径均为西北—东南方向;大冰雹发生时,雷达回波呈现"钩状"、三体散射长钉、回波悬垂、风暴顶强辐散、垂直液态含水量跃增、高回波顶高等特征;短时强降水发生时,存在回波质心低、低层强烈径向辐合、雷达产品雨强大等特点;⑤安龙钱相发生灾害性大风时,65 dBz反射率因子核位于6 km,回波梯度大,反射率因子核迅速下降,存在侧向入流槽口、径向正负速度对、深厚中层径向辐合、风暴顶强烈辐散、明显旋转等特征,正速度模糊达35 m·s-1;特殊地形的"狭管效应"对产生本次灾害性大风有增幅作用.

本文利用了fnl再分析资料(水平分辨率1°*1°)以及贵州省黔西南州8个国家级站点及376个区域站(逐年更替)地面观测资料主要包括温度、气压、风速、风向、湿度及相关物理量,利用中国国家卫星中心提供的FY-2D和FY-2E卫星云图和云顶红外亮温TBB资料等对2015年至2017年出现在黔西南州的63次暴雨过程进行统计分析.发现6次特大暴雨过程中有3次特大暴雨是由MCC系统影响造成的;切变线系统是诱发黔西南州MCC暴雨的主要影响系统,地面弱冷空气的影响以及地面辐合线的维持使得MCC系统消散的同时得以不断快速发展同时影响MCC系统稳定少动,造成局地的特大暴雨天气过程;普安县与盘县的交界处是产生影响黔西南州MCC云团的主要触发地,对流云团的移动决定了降雨的关键区;TBB低值区与强降雨发生的区域相对应,本研究对预报的预警意义:大多数影响黔西南州的MCC云团生成与午后13—18时,并在当日23时至次日03时加强,此规律对暴雨预报和短临预警的发布有很好的指示意义.

利用1963-2011年贵州81个测站逐日降水资料,分析了近49年贵州不同等级降水日数的气候特征,探讨了不同等级降水日数在降水变化中的作用.结果表明,随着降水等级的上升,对应该等级的雨日迅速减少;贵州总雨日及小雨日呈西多东少的分布,而中雨日、大雨日及暴雨日则呈南多北少分布;近49年贵州总雨日、小雨日、中雨日、大雨日整体上都呈减少趋势,而暴雨日却呈一定的增加趋势;小雨日与总雨日都是在20世纪80年代初期之后逐步减少,21世纪初期之后降幅更加明显,而中雨日在20世纪60-80年代初多波动,在21世纪初后迅速下降,大雨日和暴雨日均经历了两次较明显的波动;随着降水等级的上升,雨日与降水量的相关系数迅速增大,小雨日与降水量的相关性最差,暴雨日与降水量的相关性最好;降水偏多年各个等级的降水日数明显偏多,小雨日、中雨日及大雨日变化较为显著,暴雨日变化不显著,降水偏少年各个等级雨日则明显减少,中雨日变化最为显著,其次为大雨日、暴雨日,小雨日变化不显著,因此,贵州地区总降水量增加主要是由于小雨日、中雨日、大雨日的增加引起的,降水量减少则主要是由于中雨日、大雨日及暴雨日的减少引起的,比较各个等级的降水日数,无论是在降水偏多年还是偏少年,中雨日和大雨日的变化都较显著.

Using FNL( NCEP / NCAR) 1 ° × 1 °reanalyzed data,through four time tracking analysis of a large-hail process occurred in the southwester Guizhou Province on April 27,2013,the hail formation,development,maturity,dissipation,atmosphere physical vertical structure were revealed. The results showed that: there is a strong vertical wind shear in the high and low altitude before the formation of hail 3- 6 hours,constitute the secondary circulation superimposed on the basic flow,to provide a strong external uplift force to the outbreak of instability energy; atmospheric low-middle rise appeared a short-term strong water-vapor convergence zone,the maximum of convergence of moisture flux near 700 h Pa,moisture flux value is- 2. 5 × 10- 6g /( cm2·h Pa·s); there are diminishing frontal zone with height in the profile of the potential pseudo-equivalent temperature and the temperature,it showed that the atmosphere baroclinic instability enhanced to provide a lot of energy in the hail occurred unstable areas; the thickness between- 20 ℃ and 0 ℃ layer height was appropriate and conducive to generate large-hail; end of the first moisture convergence transport to atmospheric moisture divergence in the middle-high level,the hail process is over.

利用常规观测资料、NCEP1°×1°再分析资料以及加密区域自动站降水资料,对2012年7月16日贵州西部局地暴雨天气过程的环境条件和动力条件进行诊断分析。结果表明:暴雨发生前,500 hPa层有高空槽东南移,700 hPa层有西南低涡沿切变线向南移动;大气层处于高能不稳定的状态下,水汽输送通道畅通,有充沛的水汽向暴雨区上空输送,有利于强降水的持续。在此次局地暴雨过程中,韭菜坪主峰(2 901 m)引导天气系统由其东侧向下游移动,同时贵州西部的水城东部与六枝西部之间为河谷地形,使水汽在此处积聚,有利于此处的上升运动增强;700 hPa上的西南低涡沿切变线移动是造成暴雨的直接系统。结合加密区域自动站降水资料分析,该中小尺度天气系统的演变对贵州西部局地强降水落区具有重要的指示意义。

Using the re-analysis grid datasets of NCEP /NCAR 1° × 1°,the physical factor of vertical structure to the weather process of typical southwest hot low pressure packing which caused the rainstorm was analyzed by 4 times tracking,the results are as follows: during the packing of the southwest hot low pressure,the above of 700 hPa had no obvious cold air,but there were cold air on the surface of earth formatting static front; Under the action of common forcing atmospheric baroclinic and non geotropic,the warm air in the south climbed along static front to 800- 600 hPa,formatting a strong ascending area of convergence which center value reached- 2. 1 × 10-3hPa / s,meanwhile,there was a strong area of divergence sinking in 550- 200 hPa which center value reached 0. 9 × 10-3hPa / s and caused strong ascending motion and drawing-in effect. Superimposed on the basic flow of the secondary circulation,resulting in strong ascending motion; the air humidity in the high level increased early than these in the low level,this result indicated the surface warm air began to coagulate when it climbed to 850- 700 hPa along static front; the rainstorm appeared in the area of steam convergence; the steam convergence in the high level ended,then converted to steam divergence,then the rainstorm ended,the air became stable and the hot low pressure was packed.

利用常规气象资料,对2011年5月1日黔西南州出现强对流天气的天气系统以及各种物理量场特征进行了分析。结果表明,这次强对流是产生在中低层对流不稳定、高能舌和低层暖平流、高层冷平流以及低层辐合、高层辐散的上升运动区。对流有效位能和中高层正涡度对强对流的产生起主要作用。

2011年5月1日黔西南部分地区遭受了不同程度的灾害性天气,通过兴义多普勒天气雷达观测表明是超级单体风暴所致。利用兴义多普勒天气雷达探测资料及自动站观测资料对这次典型超级单体的基本产品及导出产品进行了分析。结果表明：风暴表现为单体自身发展型,基本属于右移风暴,风暴从发展到消亡的各个阶段其强度、最大强中心高度、垂直累积液态水含量、顶高、中气旋等产品均有不同的演变特征,风暴成熟阶段表现为典型的超级单体特征,有界弱回波区（BW-ER）及弱回波区（WER）明显,回波强中心高度及顶高上升明显,垂直流场表现为低层气旋性辐合,高层气流辐散。

According to the automatic weather stations(AWS) data,conventional weather data,FY-2c infrared satellite images and NCEP reanalysis data,the continuous heavy rainstorm process happened from June 27 to 30,2010 in southwest Guizhou Province was analyzed.The results indicated that this continuous heavy rainstorm process was caused by southwest vortex;as shown in the 500hp aerial map,there was a stable through between Lake Balkhash and Lake Baikal,some small through and cyclonic circulation kept splitting off in front of the through,gliding,transferring and supplementing the southwest vortex in Szechwan Basin along the extended path of ladder through at the eastern part of plateau,which maintained the southwest vortex at the western Guizhou Province,and extended it to 200 hPa,the stagnation of the southwest vortex over western Guizhou Province for 72 h resulted in the heavy rainstorm which lasted for three days in this area.

利用常规气象资料，对黔西南州2009入汛后出现的第2场区域性大暴雨天气过程，从天气环流形势、影响系统、物理量场、雷达回波以及数值预报产品的检验等方面进行了综合分析，结果表明：这次区域性大暴雨天气过程是受高空低涡切变与地面辐合线共同影响而产生的，同时从物理量场还分析出在暴雨区存在较大的潜在不稳定能量。

The serious low temperature and frost disaster occurred from 13 to 14 March,2009 was studied by analyzing the meteorological data to enhance the cognition to frost disaster and strengthen the work of defending low temperature and frost in Qianxinan prefecture.The results showed that Xingren,Xingyi,Anlong,Pu'an and Qinglong counties were the worst disaster counties in Qianxinan prefecture because of greatly lowering the temperature,and the frost disaster in Zhenfeng,Wangmo and Cehen counties was the worse in Qianxinan prefecture because its small range of temperature drop.The harmful degree caused by the frost is vegetables with leaves,spring tea and fruit trees at flowering stage >emerged potato seedlings >wheat and rape in Qianxinan prefecture.

望谟县2006-06-12-13的大暴雨过程,造成了80a一遇的特大洪涝灾害.此次大暴雨天气过程在高空、地面形势图上无明显的暴雨形势.通过采用对称不稳定判据对这次大暴雨天气过程进行分析,结果表明:这次大暴雨是产生在对称不稳定大气中.

2008年5月27日~28日贵州省黔西南州出现强对流天气,全州普降暴雨局地大暴雨,局地雷雨中伴有大风、冰雹,造成严重灾灾害。利用各种常规高空、地面常规资料、EC、T213数值产品分析资料以及卫星云图、多普勒雷达资料等,从不同角度分析了这次强对流天气天气过程,分析得出这次过程是在有利的环流背景下产生的:从高原东部有弱冷空气扩散南下,与副高边缘西侧的西南急流在黔西南州上空相遇,导致强烈的抬升运动,是这次强对流天气产生的主要原因。从数值产品分析的各种物理量场分析出:黔西南州处在高能、高湿、深厚的不稳定区,从而产生中尺度对流复合体MCC。卫星云图、雷达回波揭示了这次强对流天气的中尺度特征。

铜仁地区位于贵州东北部,处于亚热带显著的季风区.每年春夏,由于特殊的地形作用,气流无论从偏东还是偏西方向进入,均会在中部偏西部或偏东产生明显的气流辐合区,辐合区的D、ξ十分有利于上升运动.中小尺度系统移入后,与地形辐合叠加,形成黔东北地区强烈的对流天气.通过对15个强对流天气个例进行分析和探索,归纳出铜仁地区强对流天气的背景,并建立强对流产生和移动路径的临近预报模式,对提高铜仁地区的强对流天气预测预警能力,尤其是冰雹落区的临近预报,具有十分重要的价值.

从天气、气候等方面论证了黔西南州是一个暴雨洪涝多发区,并进一步统计分析了黔西南州暴雨洪涝出现的气候规律,最后提出了一些防御措施及对策.

主要从气象数值产品,即气压场、高度场、温度场、涡度场、露点温度差(T-Td)等,来初步探讨分析辐射雾形成的气象条件,以便提高辐射雾的预报准确率,作好气象服务.