本报告深入研究了中国奶类消费现状和特征,从供给端和消费端分析我国奶类消费制约因素.提出我国奶业通过创建中国奶业 20 强企业发展平台,加大产品创新,拓展消费渠道,加快数字化发展,推广国家学生饮用奶计划,开展中国小康牛奶行动等方式积极促进消费提升,并给出未来进一步扩大国内需求、提升消费水平的建议和措施.

Environmental attitude, value and awareness are widely believed to help reach the goal of cutting global food waste, but these psychological and cognitive factors are not always good predictors of wasteful behaviours. Notably, it is still unclear how the role of pro-environmental attitude (PEA) in reducing household food waste (HFW) changes with grocery shopping distance. To this end, using 7319 households survey data from China, this study investigates the moderating effect of shopping distance on the link between PEA and HFW behaviour. The results of Tobit regressions show that PEA is an important predictor of actual HFW behaviour in the absence of the constraint of shopping distance. However, the expansion of shopping distance will weaken the positive role of PEA in reducing HFW. It indicates that, due to the temporal and financial constraints generated by shopping distance, there is a certain degree of hypothetical deviation between the wasteful behaviours that individuals actually exhibit and their stated PEA. Our findings, from the perspective of the moderating effect of shopping distance, explain why some individuals deviate from their stated PEA in HFW behaviour, which provides a new insight into the generation of 'attitude-behaviour' gap. Therefore, policy interventions that merely enhancing environmental education may have limited effect on reducing food waste; instead, the promotion of citizen environmental ethics should be combined with efforts to improve the accessibility of retail infrastructures.

Food loss and waste (FLW) has been identified as a significant impediment to achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Addressing FLW requires comprehensive data to adequately prioritize FLW reduction and evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain interventions. However, the nutritional and economic losses associated with FLW in China are poorly understood. We used multiple indicators to assess FLW in China from nutritional and economic perspectives and conducted a scenario analysis of the benefits of its reduction. The national annual per capita FLW contains sufficient nutrients to provide one person with 66.2 days of a nutritious diet. Daily losses of vitamin K, copper, and vitamin C are particularly high, accounting for more than 74 % of the dietary reference intake (DRI). The economic loss caused by FLW is up to $263.55 billion ($188.48 per capita per year), with vegetables (48.7 %) causing the most losses, followed by meat (21.0 %). From a nutritional-economic perspective, vegetables are most affected by inefficiencies in the food supply chain, followed by meat, grains, and fruits. Additionally, post-harvest handling & storage and consumption are supply chain stages with the greatest potential to reduce FLW in nutritional and economic terms. The findings of this study assist in raising public awareness and supporting decision-making by providing a nutritional and economic loss analysis of FLW. Stakeholder cooperation will be essential to carry out successful policies and practices designed to reduce FLW in China.

Addressing food loss along the supply chain in developing countries is often hindered by low quantity and quality of food loss data. This is particularly important for the animal products supply chain of China, the world's most populous country that is experiencing dietary structure change towards more animal-based food. Here, we aim to address this important gap based on primary data obtained from a large-scale field survey conducted during 2015–2019, which covers the entire supply chain of major animal products (pork, beef, lamb, poultry, aquatic products, dairy products, and eggs). In the survey, a stratified sampling method was used and eventually over 510 sampled enterprises in 23 provinces across China were included in the questionnaire survey and semi-structured one-on-one interviews. We show that the normalized total loss rate of meat, aquatic products, dairy products, and eggs were 6.4%, 10.2%, 5.6%, and 4.1%, respectively, of their total production. Such losses would add up to 4.9 million tons, 3.8 million tons, 1.7 million tons, and 1.1 million tons, respectively, based on China's average production of meat, aquatic products, dairy products, and eggs between 2015 and 2019. Considering the Chinese Dietary Reference Intakes for adults, these losses equal to an energy feeding potential of 26.2 million adults and a protein feeding potential of 56.4 million adults. While China's animal product loss rate is comparably lower than that of industrialized countries, addressing such increasing loss still deserves special attention and mitigation efforts, considering further dietary structure change and pressing environmental challenges in the future.

乳制品消费对于提高居民营养水平和改善饮食结构具有积极影响.日本人均奶类消费量达95 kg,研究日本奶类消费历史、现状并总结经验对于促进中国居民奶类消费具有重要意义.从消费数量与结构、产品价格与消费支出、分人群消费情况、自给率等方面分析了日本奶类消费特征,并总结了日本奶类消费促进经验.研究发现,日本居民奶类消费趋于稳定,消费结构完成了以液体奶为主向液态奶、奶酪等多品类平衡消费的转变,奶酪产品是日本奶类消费的主要增长点,不同年龄段消费者奶类消费分化,奶类产品自给率呈下降趋势.借鉴日本经验,建议从食育政策、学生奶计划、标签管理与应用、优化奶类产品结构、控制乳品价格等方面加大工作力度,促进中国居民奶类消费增长,推动奶业持续健康发展.

牛奶是人类不可或缺的全营养食品,能够满足居民食物消费结构升级的营养需求,同时也是健康中国、强壮民族的重要产业.近年来,奶业受到国家高度重视,其发展也取得了显著性成效.本文回顾了2021年奶业总体形势,从生产、加工、贸易和消费视角进行分析,对2022年奶业发展形势进行展望,同时对国内外主要乳制品价格走势进行分析,并提出奶业当前值得关注的问题,为行业发展提供参考.

中国奶业步入高质量发展阶段,在市场的推动和奶业振兴政策引导下,2021年,我国奶类产量、各类乳制品进口量、乳品工业总产量分别为3777万t、390万t(不含酪蛋白,折合原料奶计约2231万t)、3032万t,同比分别增加7.0％、18.8％、9.4％,国内生产、加工、进口"三量齐增",一致反映出国内奶类消费需求旺盛.近年来,我国奶类消费量保持增长,消费结构逐渐优化,随着消费者对营养健康关注度不断提高,对奶类有利于提高免疫力观点的认可度增强,预计2022年奶类消费仍将保持一定比例的刚性增长,需求增速有所回落,全年奶类消费量将增至6311万t,增幅约5.0％,人均奶类消费量44.7 kg.

近年来,国内西式餐饮、烘焙等新业态呈现快速发展势头,奶酪为主的干乳制品占我国乳制品消费的比重逐年提升,奶酪消费增长潜力很大,中国奶酪市场将进入黄金发展时期.本研究基于全国6座典型城市3000个奶类消费调研微观数据,总结目前中国居民奶酪消费现状及异质性特征.最后提出推动居民由"喝奶"向"吃奶"转变,促进我国奶酪消费的三点建议,一是多渠道普及奶酪营养价值,提高居民认可度;二是增加学生奶产品种类,从小培育奶酪消费习惯;三是发展奶豆腐等特色奶酪,丰富消费者选择.

乳制品价格与居民收入已成为限制居民奶类消费增长的重要因素,当任何一种乳制品价格上涨,城镇居民会倾向于购买其他乳制品替代.本文基于2018年中国6座典型城市3000户居民的调查数据,运用QUAIDS模型分析由巴氏杀菌乳、灭菌乳、常温酸奶、低温酸奶、奶粉、奶酪和奶油的价格变化所导致的需求变化特征,并进一步采用Tobit模型考察收入对乳制品消费结构的替代影响.结果 表明,收入和价格是影响城镇居民乳制品消费增长的主要因素,各类乳制品之间的相互替代性较强,随着居民收入水平的持续提高,消费者更偏好于奶酪、奶油、巴氏杀菌乳消费,各类乳制品的消费量也将进一步增长,巴氏杀菌乳增长将快于其他乳制品.

Background: Skeletal muscle atrophy is an important and independent predictor of survival after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Our previous study found that soy-whey blended protein (SWP) can improve muscle mass in acute leukemia patients. Objective: We aimed to explore potential factors that influence muscle outcomes after nutritional intervention. Methods: In this case-control study, 13 patients who received HSCT and failed to improve muscle function within half a year were included. After two months of SWP intervention, the subjects were divided into two groups (MSI: muscle status improved; MNI: muscle status not improved). 16S rDNA sequencing, principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and the PICRUSt algorithm were used to analyze the composition, structure and function of the intestinal microbiota between the groups. This study was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR 1800017765). Results: SWP significantly improved muscle status (muscle area: from 330.4 mm(2) to 384.8 mm(2), p = 0.02; muscle strength: from 19.2 kg to 21.3 kg, p = 0.04). However, there were a small number of subjects whose muscle status was not effectively improved. After SWP intervention, the diversity (Shannon: from 1.7 to 3.8, p = 0.01; Simpson: from 0.6 to 0.8, p = 0.015) of the intestinal microbiota in the MSI group increased significantly, whereas that in the MNI group did not. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed separate groupings of the microbiota of the Baseline-MSI and Endpoint-MSI time points in the MSI group. Opposite patterns of microbial abundance change were found between the MSI group (75% of changed genera were increased) and the MNI group (80% of changed genera were decreased). Three bacterial taxa (negative correlation: Streptococcus; positive correlations: Ruminococcus and Veillonella) were significantly related to muscle improvement outcomes. Both pentose phosphate (p = 0.048) and amino acid biosynthesis (p = 0.039), which are related to muscle metabolism, were found to be significantly changed in the MSI group through PICRUSt algorithm prediction. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the intestinal microbiota plays important roles in the regulation of muscle metabolism. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

2020年新冠肺炎疫情(简称"疫情")爆发后,我国乳制品消费量一度下降,随着疫情逐步得到控制,液态乳制品销售量于4月后开始恢复为同比正向增长,此后乳制品消费总量加快增长,消费结构不断优化,尤其是低温鲜奶消费一枝独秀.近年来,我国低温鲜奶消费呈加速增长趋势,2020年同比增幅达25.6％,增速创历史新高.总的看,近年来在政策鼓励、技术创新、市场培育三大因素推动下,低温鲜奶消费持续较快增长,而疫情下消费者对营养健康的关注度提高大大助推了这一进程,预计这一趋势仍将持续,建议顺应消费升级趋势,加大奶源生产基地和冷链设施建设,构筑乳业高质量发展的基础.

基于国内外文献,提出营养干预、经济学评价基本方法的概念,分析其基本内涵和类型并从成本-效果分析、成本-效用分析、成本-效益分析等评价方法的角度综述近年国内外营养干预经济学评价开展的研究进展,并基于营养经济学发展背景,根据我国营养干预经济学评价研究现存评价指标单一、评价方法体系较不成熟等问题,对我国营养干预经济学评价研究方向提出展望.

为进一步了解当前我国居民牛奶饮用情况,提高居民牛奶消费量,基于6省(区、市)886份问卷调查数据,详细分析了我国城乡居民牛奶饮用现状、对牛奶产品常识了解程度、对牛奶的营养认知状况.研究发现,当前居民尚未养成牛奶消费习惯,牛奶饮用量远低于《中国居民膳食指南2016》推荐标准,居民对牛奶产品常识的了解程度不深,营养认知水平有待提升,若要提高居民牛奶消费量需从培养消费习惯,提高营养认知水平等方面着手.

近10年,大陆地区奶类消费需求明显增长,但本土乳品消费不足,进口乳品占新增消费市场的80％.为增强国内奶业竞争优势、提升国产乳品品质,大陆地区把发展巴氏奶作为一条重要举措.台湾地区在奶业生产、消费等多方面与大陆类似,借鉴其巴氏奶推广与消费引导做法与经验,对促进大陆巴氏奶产业发展、助力奶业振兴具有重要现实意义.本文研究发现:台湾地区选择低温巴氏奶为当地奶业主要方向,通过推广"鲜乳标章"管理和"鲜乳CAS制度",明显提升消费者对本地巴氏奶消费信心,增强本地乳品竞争优势,带动奶牛养殖提质增效和生鲜乳产量快速提高,优化乳品生产结构,在价格明显高于进口奶的情况下,本地巴氏奶自给率长期保持在70％左右.最后,借鉴台湾地区巴氏奶产业发展经验与做法,立足大陆地区巴氏奶发展现状及居民消费需求,提出对大陆巴氏奶发展的5点启示.

奶业是健康中国、强壮民族不可或缺的产业,在居民食物消费和营养供给中承担重要角色,2019年中国居民人均奶类消费量①35.9kg,是全球人均奶类消费量的1/3,仅相当于奶类推荐摄入量的32.8％,未来奶类消费仍有较大增长空间.判断中国奶类消费增长潜力、预测奶业消费峰值对提前谋划布局国内奶业生产、保障奶类供给具有重要意义.本文综合运用微观调研、国家统计、国际统计3方数据,从人均奶类消费角度研究分析未来人均奶类消费增长空间及消费峰值.研究结果表明,中国人均奶类消费将在2037年达到59kg峰值水平,进一步考虑人口变化,全国奶类消费总量将于2037年达到峰值8272万t.如果按照 《2020年奶业规划》中奶源自给率70％测算,届时奶类总产量需达到5790万t,比2019年增加2483万t.目前,中国人均奶类消费水平较低,保障长期国内奶业供给安全亟待加强消费引导,提升奶类消费数量,保障奶类消费继续增长的良好局面.

As Japan's food and nutrition management agency, Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (JMHW) have carried out a series of effective practices and guiding measures in nutrition and diet education, chronic disease prevention as well as food nutrition and health. Research shows that standardized Japanese nutrition management system has launched a series of specific works, including the national health and nutrition survey, dietary recommendations and nutritionist training. By implementing the national health plan, establishing the physical examination and health care system, and improving the living habits, the rise of the incidence of chronic diseases have effectively curbed. Meanwhile, "diet education" is even more prominent in Japan's food and nutrition policies and measures promotion. This paper summarizes the practice and experiences of Japan, as well as puts forward some enlightenments and references for China in combination with the outstanding problems of food nutrition management. The work of "food and education" is even more prominent in Japan's food and nutrition policies.

以吉林省某高校的学生为研究对象,以肉类和奶类为畜产品代表,采用有序Logit模型深入分析膳食营养知识对畜产品消费影响.研究发现,我国大学生群体的营养知识水平一般,在总分为55分的营养知识问卷测量中得分平均分为35.618分.大学生对食物消费和人体健康、疾病的关系了解得较为清楚.肉类消费的平均频率为每周2～3次,牛奶的消费频次的平均值为2.016.性别、年级、生活费、城乡等都会影响大学生的畜产品消费.营养知识水平提高会显著增加肉类的消费,而对牛奶的消费没有明显影响.

为了解粪污资源化利用对生猪产业的影响及粪污资源化利用中存在的问题,本文对河南、广东、浙江与吉林4省大型生猪养殖企业进行了调研.结果表明:粪污资源化利用对生猪产业区域布局、养殖成本、养殖规模与产销对接方式均会产生影响,具体表现为区域内布局逐步优化,区域间"南猪北养西进";养殖成本适度增加;大中型养殖企业占比增加以及家庭牧场涌现;跨区域冷鲜肉调运部分替代活猪和热鲜肉调运.建议政府加大对生猪粪污资源化利用的政策支持,积极培育有机肥市场,对养殖企业、社会专业治理企业、种植主体等多方进行引导,促进粪污-有机肥生产-有机肥消纳产业链条的良性运转.

对照联合国以恩格尔系数大小划分的世界各国生活水平的标准,2017年我国开始步入富足阶段.居民对食物消费数量刚性增长的同时,对产品结构、质量与营养也提出了更高的要求.随着对食物营养健康意识的提升,居民饮奶意识不断增强,我国人均乳制品表观年消费量由2000年的7.1千克增长到2018年的34.3千克,18年间翻了4.8倍.但是相比全球平均水平,我国目前人均乳制品消费量仍然不足.综合运用微观调研、国家统计、国际数据等三方数据,分析当前我国乳制品的消费特征、消费结构以及未来消费趋势,并提出消费引导建议.

[目的]我国是肉类生产和消费大国,2 017年我国肉类产量达到8 588.1万t.从全产业链的视角看,肉类从生产者到消费者餐桌要经历养殖、屠宰、排酸、分割、运输、零售、储藏等多个环节,每个环节都会发生不同程度的损耗,是对资源和环境的巨大浪费,尤其是从屠宰后到终端消费所经历的环节.本研究将聚焦猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉四个基于全产业调研大肉类产品,重点关注分割、遇冷排酸、运输、零售、批发、冷冻等动物性产品从屠宰到消费的重要环节,明确猪、牛、羊、鸡四种肉类产品在主要环节中的食物损耗量,并在此基础上计算出不同肉类产品的可食用比例.[方法]基于系统分析的思路,从全产业链视角将肉类从生产到消费终端链条中可能会产生损耗的环节划分成分割、运输、销售终端、预冷排酸、冷冻储藏五个环节,通过全产业链跟踪调查的方法,分别收集猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉产业链条以上各环节的损耗数量.考虑到冷鲜肉、热鲜肉、冷冻肉的三种消费形态产业链条的差异性,笔者以不同消费形态的市场占比为权重,在获得每类消费形态全产业链损耗基础上计算综合损耗率.可食用比例则基于经营主体长期屠宰分割后的实际数据计算得到.在典型区域的选取上以主产省为重点,选取不同规模的企业、商超、农贸市场等经营主体,通过一对一访谈调研,获取一手数据.[结果]通过对北京、四川、重庆、山东、河南、广东、广西、吉林、内蒙、新疆等10个省(市),19个一体化企业、7个屠宰分割企业和1 6个终端销售市场的调研可知,当前我国猪肉、鸡肉、牛肉和羊肉全环节损耗率分别是8.1％、11.22％、1.47％和7.45％.从肉类流通消费形态划分,猪肉热鲜肉、冷鲜肉和冷冻肉的损耗分别是2.69％、4.12％、8.10％;牛肉热鲜肉、冷鲜肉和冷冻肉的损耗分别是7.17％、8.68％、11.47％;羊肉热鲜肉、冷鲜肉和冷冻肉的损耗分别是4.63％、6.53％、7.45％;禽肉冷鲜肉和冷冻肉的损耗分别是6.31％、11.22％.结合不同流通形态的占比计算可知猪牛羊禽的全产业链综合损耗率分别为4.36％、9.55％、5.94％、9.30％;胴体可食用率分别是78.48％、81.26％、73.72％、68.55％;整体可食用率分别是90.29％、94.84％、96.46％、78.91％.[结论]由于饮食习惯的差异,整体上看中国肉类损耗要显著低于欧美、日本等其他国家,食物利用率高.然而肉类全产业链依然存在中小规模企业加工、分割技术水平较低,批发和零售环节冷藏设备的不到位,冷冻肉以及国内很多地区居民依然偏好热鲜肉品等原因,均是目前中国肉类损耗的主要原因.从长远看,随着冷鲜肉消费比重的增加,屠宰分割环节技术水平的提升,以及冷藏和储运设施设备的完善,我国肉类全产业链减损降耗依然存在较大的提升空间.