Energy is a basic need for humanity. The more a country is developed, the more it is dependent on energy sources. After the industrial revolution in 1850 in Europe simple one-to-one energy sources like human power, animal, wood, water and wind power, changed into the use of one-tomany energy sources coming from fossil sources such as oil, gas and coal. This resulted in an accelerated development of the income of the people in these countries. Next to positive aspects of the development of energy there are negative aspects of non-renewable fossil sources causing pollution. Nuclear power energy appear to be a safety threat because of radioactivity. Therefore one searches for new or renewable energy sources such as water-, wind-, bioand sun energy. These sources seem to produce in a safer and less polluting way energy. Many countries depend on other countries for their need of energy. This creates vulnerable political situations, such as the dependency of European countries on gas from Russia and the dependency of the USA on oil of Arabian countries. The latter dependency was the main cause of the two Iraq wars in the last decennia (New York Times, period 2003-2008). Much of the energy people use comes from private energy companies. However, for these companies the cost-effect of new technological developments as wind, water and sun energy or biogases must be profitable. Non-renewable fossil sources, pollution, safety threats, political vulnerability, dependency of commercial privatized industries make the energy field complicated and complex. The many phenomena and actors in this field are in a complicated way related to each other by non-linear feedback loops. The consequence is that the system becomes a complex system. Easy sustainable solutions are hard to find and even more difficult to implement. The energy issue is a complex societal problem. In order to find new sustainable energy the problem has be to approached as a complex societal problem and handled along the lines of the field of methodology of societal complexity. Therefore the Compram methodology can be used. In the first step of the methodology experts of different fields with knowledge of different aspects of the energy problem are invited to discuss the problem. These can be experts with technological,
AbstractThe methodology of the social sciences has developed in the 21st century to a sub-optimal state and in this way research programs for handling complex societal problems are frustrated. To manage this deadlock the author returns to the original aims of the social sciences. He shows that in the past, concepts and aims were developed that goes beyond this regression. Those original starting points are connected to modern ideas of advanced interdisciplinary research, such as practiced in action science, system dynamics and computer simulation. With this exploration a more advanced methodology for social change and organisational transformation is outlined.
Although it is well known that during adolescence the delinquent involvement of females is consistently less when compared to male involvement, it remains an important question whether the development of delinquency has a similar trajectory for both sexes. The main hypothesis tested is whether sex differences in delinquency, specifically growth, peak age, and decline, are constant. An autoregression model in continuous time, implemented as a structural equation model, is used for the description of the development of delinquency in males and females. The data are collected in an overlapping cohort design, and both within-person and between-persons data are integrated into a single model. The result shows that the involvement with delinquency over time is different for males and females. The main difference increases up to the age of 16, and decreases thereafter. The model indicates that both sexes reach the maximum in delinquency at the same age. It is concluded that males and females differ both in their start level at age 12 and in the amount of change with age.
Purpose - To demonstrate that the past of the social sciences contains all the elements of sociocybernetics and that those elements combined with the logic of modem interdisciplinary simulation research will meet challenges modem society poses to those sciences.Design/methodology/approach - A historical analysis, leading to an outline of advanced logic of social science research, shows the way to modern (computer) simulation research.Findings - When the theoretical principles of sociocybernetics are put into practice by doing (empirically based) simulation research, it can handle in a scientifically valid way a number of research questions modem complex society poses, such as how processes of self-organization in individuals, groups and institutes can be described and understood; self-organization of autobiographic memory of individuals can be simulated in a computer, these individual memories are related to collective memories of generations; these different generations of social researchers can work together and balance in a creative synergy between the wisdom of the past and surprising hypotheses of the future.Research limitations/implications - Social sciences researchers have to work with advanced logic of research such as is propagated in simulation research and by sociocybernetics.Practical implications - Different generations of sociocyberneticians here to work together in (empirically based) simulation research to demonstrate the usefulness of sociocybernetical theory and logic.Originality/value - Sociocybernetics is not an exotic field but a normal legitimate constituent of the social sciences.
The Value Added Tax (VAT) policy of Bangladesh will be analyzed here applying General Systems Theory (GST). The VAT policy will be found to be a VAT system. The VAT system will be verified in terms of the basic features of GST i.e., ‘hierarchy’, ‘homeostasis’, ‘equifinality’ and ‘non-summativity’. From structural and functional perspectives of GST, the VAT system will be seen. ‘Hierarchy’ and ‘homeostasis’ falls under structural perspective while ‘equifinality’ and ‘non-summativity’ falls under functional perspective. Hierarchy is a structural feature of a general system. It refers to an ascending order by which the components of a system remain arranged. The hierarchy theory studies the hierarchical structures within a system and the relations between the structures. Hierarchy theory can be applied to understand and develop the complex systems like the VAT system of Bangladesh. There is an administrative hierarchy, a policy hierarchy, and so on in the VAT system of Bangladesh. There are levels in each of these hierarchies. Relations among these levels will be examined and problem areas will be identified. Homeostasis has been another structural aspect of general system. It refers to the tendency of a system of maintaining steady state. A homeostatic system maintains stability by means of a multiplicity of dynamic equilibria rigorously controlled by interdependent regulation mechanisms. Homeostasis is there in highly complex open systems, e.g., ecological, biological, social, economic, political system etc. Once the homeostatic function is understood, with proper inputs in the system a desired output can be obtained. Equifinality has been a functional principle of general system, which states that the same final condition (output) of a system may be reached from different initial conditions (inputs) and in different ways (transformations). According to the principle of equifinality, there are many different ways that an open system such as a person, team or organization can behave and still achieve the same outcome. This holds true with regard to many other systems, particularly natural, man-made, open, dynamic, or conceptual systems like the VAT system of Bangladesh. Applying the concept equifinality in the VAT system of Bangladesh, we can maximize revenue output with minimum cost. To achieve a desired level of revenue growth, costs of several inputs can be assessed; their outcomes can be evaluated and one option can be chosen for adpotion. The principle of non-summativity has been another functional aspect of general system that emphasizes upon understanding the hole. It asserts that the system output is greater than the sum total of the outputs of its parts. This is because of the functional relationships among the components of the system. Such principle of system is called non-summativity. In the VAT system of Bangladesh if such relations among components or levels can be properly established, the total revenue generated by the VAT system can be much higher than the revenue given by all units in totality. Those are some points pursuing which, limitations with the VAT system of Bangladesh can be identified. The findings taken care of by the policy makers, there can be significant growth in the revenue generation of Bangladesh.
Romanian adoptees have a background of severe neglect. International research has shown that this can give rise to symptoms of autistic behavior. Rutter et al . (1999, Journal of Child Psychology Psychiatry, 40 (4), 537–549.) refers to “quasi-autistic patterns”, and Federici (1998, Help for the hopelss child: A guide for families . Alexandria: Federici & Assocoates.) to Post-Institutional Autistic Syndrome (PIAS). Eighty Romanian adoptees, averaging 8 years of age, who had resided in the Netherlands for 5 years were studied. Parent interviews and the Auti-R scale showed the extent to which the children exhibited PIAS. In one third of these children we observed (in addition to other behavioral problems) stereotypic behaviors and communication and language disorders. Our findings resembled the Rutter et al . (1999, Journal of Child Psychology Psychiatry, 40 (4), 537–549). data. Six of the children were classified within the autistic spectrum pursuant to the Auti-R, and seven within the so-called intermediate group. No difference was found between the girls and the boys. Children who had been in their adoptive families for 5 years or more showed fewer behavior problems than children who had been in their adoptive families for four or less years.
This study of male and female adolescent delinquency trajectories focuses on the prediction of late adolescence delinquency, based on earlier delinquency and social support. In this 3-wave longitudinal survey, 270 Dutch adolescents (113 males and 157 females) ages 12 to 14, were followed for a period of 6 years. For males, the level of delinquent activity in late adolescence strongly depends on earlier delinquent activities (R2 = .33, p < .0005). In contrast, the level of female delinquency in late adolescence is far less predictable (R2 = .18, p < .001), and could not be predicted from delinquent activities during pre and early adolescence, while support from the mother during late adolescence was associated with reduced delinquency for females. Different models may be needed to explain the development of delinquency for males versus females.
A study was conducted on 72 families with 80 children adopted from Romania. The average age at adoption was 2 years, 10 months, and at time of study 8 years. Adoptive parents experienced more family stress than a comparable group of non-adoptive parents. Divided into a group that did not (N = 29) and that did (N = 51) seek professional help, both groups showed less family stress than comparable non-adoptive groups. However, the group of 51 experienced more family stress than the groups (adoptive and non-adoptive) that didn't seek help. Adoptive parents are committed to their task, and resilient to their children's problem behavior. Parental stress and adoption satisfaction are negatively influenced if the child displays behavioral problems, but the age or the health of the child at arrival in the family were not related to parenting stress or adoption satisfaction. (C) 2006 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.
This comparative study (i.e., three age groups, three measures) explores the distribution of retrospective and prospective autobiographical memory data across the lifespan, in particular the bump pattern of disproportionally higher recall of memories from the ages 10 to 30, as generally observed in older age groups, in conjunction with the well-known recency effect. The memory data patterns of the Life-line Interview Method (LIM, the measure of this study, were compared to the published data patterns of two other memory measures (i.e., the Time Line and Life event sorting task). The results of this comparative study confirm the universality of the bump for older adults, as well as the recency effect. From the LIM data patterns it is hypothesized that both bump and recency effects play a part not only in middle-aged and older adults but also in younger people. In search for an explanation of these patterns, a theoretical outline is presented for the study of autobiographical memory as a dynamic system of both retrospective and prospective memory, subject to continuous changes across the lifespan.
Seventy-two Dutch adoptive parents of 80 Romanian children completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), the Nijmegen Questionnaire for the Upbringing Situation (NQUS), and participated in a semistructured interview (response 83%). Thirty-four percent of the adopted children scored in the clinical range on Externalizing and 36 % on Total Problems scales. Significantly more children who were at least two years at placement and had stayed less than five years in the adoptive family received scores in the clinical range on almost all CBCL clinical clusters. Nevertheless, the adoptive parents judge their upbringing situation positive (NQUS).