The Mediterranean basin represents a hot spot area for short-term O-3 distribution and anthropogenic contributions to it. This is why we analysed in this work the surface O-3 variability observed at Mt. Cimone WMO/GAW global station (CMN, 44 degrees 12' N, 10 degrees 42' E, 2165 m a.s.l., Italy) from 1991 to 2011. The measurements performed at this mountain observatory represent the longest surface O-3 record at a baseline site in the Mediterranean basin.Monthly O-3 averages at CMN show a typical seasonal cycle characterised by a winter minimum and a spring - summer maxima. The shape of the mean annual variation of O-3 is well comparable with those observed at other four baseline sites in the Alps and in the Mediterranean region: Jungfraujoch - Swiss Alps, Sonnblick - Austrian Alps, Mt Krvavec- Slovenia and Giordan Lightouse - Island of Gozo, Malta. In general, O-3 levels at CMN show higher values during warm months, which is likely to be related both to vertical transport of polluted air-masses at regional and continental scales and to enhanced photochemistry.Here, we also investigate the influence of specific atmospheric processes (i.e. the occurrence of heat-waves, North Atlantic Oscillation, thermal transport of air-masses from the regional PBL and strato-spheric intrusions) in affecting O-3 variability at CMN.Overall, a significant positive (95% confidence level) linear trend in monthly O-3 mole fraction was observed over the period 1991-2011 (0.21 +/- 0.10 nmol/mol yr(-1)) while no trend (-0.02 +/- 0.12 nmol/ mol yr(-1)) was detected for the 1996-2011, when measurements were carried out by an homogeneous set-up. On a seasonal basis, a positive trend has been observed for 1996-2011 (0.34 +/- 032 nmol/mol yr(-1)) only for spring. Significant decreases of the seasonal O-3 growth-rates have been detected at CMN during 1991-2011 from winter to spring and only for summer during 1996-2011. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Preliminary attempts of quantifying the stratospheric ozone contribution in the observations at the Zugspitze summit (2962 m a.s.l.) next to Garmisch-Partenkirchen in the German Alps had yielded an approximate doubling of the stratospheric fraction of the Zugspitze ozone during the time period 1978 to 2004. These investigations had been based on data filtering by using low relative humidity (RH) and elevated 7Be as the criteria for selecting half-hour intervals of ozone data representative of stratospheric intrusion air. To quantify the residual stratospheric component in stratospherically influenced air masses, however, the mixing of tropospheric air into the stratospheric intrusion layers must be taken into account. In fact, the dewpoint mirror instrument at the Zugspitze summit station rarely registers RH values lower than 10% in stratospheric air intrusions. Since 2007 a programme of routine lidar sounding of ozone, water vapour and aerosol has been conducted in the Garmisch-Partenkirchen area. The lidar results demonstrate that the intrusion layers are drier by roughly one order of magnitude than indicated in the in situ measurements. Even in thin layers RH values clearly below 1% have frequently been observed. These thin, undiluted layers present an important challenge for atmospheric modelling. Although the ozone values never reach values typical of the lower-stratosphere it becomes, thus, obvious that, without strong wind shear or convective processes, mixing of stratospheric and tropospheric air must be very slow in most of the free troposphere. As a consequence, the analysis the Zugspitze data can be assumed to be more reliable than anticipated. Finally, the concentrations of Zugspitze carbon monoxide rarely drop inside intrusion layers and normally stay clearly above full stratospheric values. This indicates that most of the CO, and thus the intrusion air mass, originates in the shallow "mixing layer" around the thermal tropopause. The CO mixing ratio in these descending layers between 1990 and 2004 exhibits a slightly positive trend indicating some Asian influence on the lowermost stratosphere in the high-latitude source region of most intrusions reaching the station.
The International Halocarbons in Air Comparison Experiment (IHALACE) was conducted to document relationships between calibration scales among various laboratories that measure atmospheric greenhouse and ozone depleting gases. This study included trace gases such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), as well as nitrous oxide, methane, sulfur hexafluoride, very short-lived halocompounds, and carbonyl sulfide. Many of these gases are present in the unpolluted atmosphere at pmol mol−1 (parts per trillion) or nmol mol−1 (parts per billion) levels. Six stainless steel cylinders containing natural and modified natural air samples were circulated among 19 laboratories. Results from this experiment reveal relatively good agreement (within a few percent) among commonly used calibration scales. Scale relationships for some gases, such as CFC-12 and CCl4, were found to be consistent with those derived from estimates of global mean mole fractions, while others, such as halon-1211 and CH3Br, revealed discrepancies. The transfer of calibration scales among laboratories was problematic in many cases, meaning that measurements tied to a particular scale may not, in fact, be compatible. Large scale transfer errors were observed for CH3CCl3 (10–100%) and CCl4 (2–30%), while much smaller scale transfer errors (< 1%) were observed for halon-1211, HCFC-22, and HCFC-142b. These results reveal substantial improvements in calibration over previous comparisons. However, there is room for improvement in communication and coordination of calibration activities with respect to the measurement of halogenated and related trace gases.
Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.
Two recent papers have quantified long‐term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry‐climate models (NCAR CAM‐chem, GFDL‐CM3, and GISS‐E2‐R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by ~5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only ~50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture ~25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long‐term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present‐day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.
At northern midlatitudes the abundance of tropospheric O 3 has increased by a factor of approximately 2 since the 1950s. The cause of this increase is generally attributed to increasing anthropogenic precursor emissions, but present chemical and transport models cannot quantitatively reproduce its magnitude. Here we show another manifestation of changes in O 3 abundance—a shift of the seasonal cycle at northern midlatitudes so that the observed peak concentrations now appear earlier in the year than in previous decades. The rate of this shift has been 3 to 6 days per decade since the 1970s. We examine possible reasons to explain this shift and suggest it is due to changes in atmospheric transport patterns combined with spatial and temporal changes in emissions. Detailed modeling is necessary to test these hypotheses; this investigation will provide useful guidance for improving global chemistry‐climate models and stringent tests of the model results.
We use ozone observations from sondes, regular aircraft, and alpine surface sites in a self‐consistent analysis to determine robust changes in the time evolution of ozone over Europe. The data are most coherent since 1998, with similar interannual variability and trends. Ozone has decreased slowly since 1998, with an annual mean trend of −0.15 ppb yr−1 at ∼3 km and the largest decrease in summer. There are some substantial differences between the sondes and other data, particularly in the early 1990s. The alpine and aircraft data show that ozone increased from late 1994 until 1998, but the sonde data do not. Time series of differences in ozone between pairs of locations reveal inconsistencies in various data sets. Differences as small as few ppb for 2–3 years lead to different trends for 1995–2008, when all data sets overlap. Sonde data from Hohenpeissenberg and in situ data from nearby Zugspitze show ozone increased by ∼1 ppb yr−1 during 1978–1989. We construct a mean alpine time series using data for Jungfraujoch, Zugspitze, and Sonnblick. Using Zugspitze data for 1978–1989, and the mean time series since 1990, we find that the ozone increased by 6.5–10 ppb in 1978–1989 and 2.5–4.5 ppb in the 1990s and decreased by 4 ppb in the 2000s in summer with no significant changes in other seasons. It is hard to reconcile all these changes with trends in emissions of ozone precursors, and in ozone in the lowermost stratosphere. We recommend data sets that are suitable for evaluation of model hindcasts.
(1) World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, (2) WMO World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases, c/o Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan (3) NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA , (4) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia, (5) South African Weather Service, Stellenbosch, South Africa, (6) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Abstract. Changes in baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) tropospheric O3 concentrations that have occurred at northern mid-latitudes over the past six decades are quantified from available measurement records with the goal of providing benchmarks to which retrospective model calculations of the global O3 distribution can be compared. Eleven data sets (ten ground-based and one airborne) including six European (beginning in the 1950's and before), three North American (beginning in 1984) and two Asian (beginning in 1991) are analyzed. When the full time periods of the data records are considered a consistent picture emerges; O3 has increased at all sites in all seasons at approximately 1% yr−1 relative to the site's 2000 yr mixing ratio in each season. For perspective, this rate of increase sustained from 1950 to 2000 corresponds to an approximate doubling. There is little if any evidence for statistically significant differences in average rates of increase among the sites, regardless of varying length of data records. At most sites (most definitively at the European sites) the rate of increase has slowed over the last decade (possibly longer), to the extent that at present O3 is decreasing at some sites in some seasons, particularly in summer. The average rate of increase before 2000 shows significant seasonal differences (1.08 ± 0.09, 0.89 ± 0.10, 0.85 ± 0.11 and 1.21 ± 0.12% yr−1 in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, over North America and Europe).
Longer-term (i.e., 20–40 years) tropospheric ozone (O3) time series obtained from surface and ozonesonde observations have been analyzed to assess possible changes with time through 2010. The time series have been selected to reflect relatively broad geographic regions and where possible minimize local scale influences, generally avoiding sites close to larger urban areas. Several approaches have been used to describe the changes with time, including application of a time series model, running 15-year trends, and changes in the distribution by month in the O3 mixing ratio. Changes have been investigated utilizing monthly averages, as well as exposure metrics that focus on specific parts of the distribution of hourly average concentrations (e.g., low-, mid-, and high-level concentration ranges). Many of the longer time series (∼30 years) in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, including those in Japan, show a pattern of significant increase in the earlier portion of the record, with a flattening over the last 10–15 years. It is uncertain if the flattening of the O3 change over Japan reflects the impact of O3 transported from continental East Asia in light of reported O3 increases in China. In the Canadian Arctic, declines from the beginning of the ozonesonde record in 1980 have mostly rebounded with little overall change over the period of record. The limited data in the tropical Pacific suggest very little change over the entire record. In the southern hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes, the significant increase observed in the early part of the record has leveled off in the most recent decade. At the South Pole, a decline observed during the first half of the 35-year record has reversed, and O3 has recovered to levels similar to the beginning of the record. Our understanding of the causes of the longer-term changes is limited, although it appears that in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, controls on O3 precursors have likely been a factor in the leveling off or decline from earlier O3 increases.
Over the past decades, scientists around the world have gathered evidence showing that atmospheric change is taking place on a global scale. While the problems related to stratospheric ozone depletion are now widely accepted as being established fact, the debate on whether global climate change is real or not.
Based on daily predictions of stratospheric air intrusions, obtained from trajectory calculations by ETH Zürich with wind fields from ECMWF forecasts, a high number of measurements with the ozone lidar at IMK-IFU (Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany) were carried out in 2001. The lidar measurements show a large variety of rather different cases reflecting the full complexity of intrusion episodes that is not visible in classical case studies. In part, tropopause folds could be fully captured. The frequency of intrusion cases forecasted and verified by vertical sounding or in the in-situ data recorded at the nearby Zugspitze summit (2962 m a.s.l.) exceed that in previous work by more than a factor of two. Three cases mapped with the lidar were selected to validate the results for the corresponding time periods extracted from a one-year run with the new hemispheric version of the chemistry-transport model EURAD. Due to the high spatial resolution chosen for these simulations the agreement with the lidar measurements is satisfactory. The Zugspitze ozone data from 1978 to 2004 were recently filtered by applying different criteria for stratospheric air, based on the 7 Be and humidity measurements. Here, by using the daily model forecasts during the time period 2001–2005, we examine three criteria and determine how well they represent the stratospheric air intrusions reaching the mountain site. Seasonal cycles for the period 2001–2005 were derived for the forecasts as well as the intrusion frequency per month for the forecasted intrusions and each of the criteria, distinguishing eight different characteristic transport pathways. In most cases a winter maximum and a summer minimum was obtained , but in the case of cyclonic arrival of intrusions starting over Greenland a late-spring maximum is seen. Two of the filtering criteria examined, based on combining a relative-humidity (RH) threshold of 60% with either a 7 Be threshold of 5.5 mBq m −3 or the requirement for RH≤30% within ±6 h, rather reliably predict periods of deep intrusions reaching the Zugspitze station. An " or " combination of both these criteria yields slightly more cases and covers 77.9% of the intrusions identified. The lack of observations in the complementary 22.1% are mostly explained by overpasses. In this way the long-term trend of stratospheric ozone observed at this site as well as the corresponding ozone budget may be derived on the basis of measurements only. This effort will be the subject of a subsequent publication.
Clean maritime air from South Atlantic Site Characteristics Cape Point (CPT): 34° S, 18° E; 230 m asl. Time zone UT+2. Global station within the WMO/Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network. Trajectories indicate a major contribution from subsiding air masses. Background levels of the major greenhouse gases are usually prevailing for more than 60 % of the time. Statistical data filters are applied for respective data selection. Goals of the Measurements Long-term trends and seasonal variations of trace species under conditions representative of southern hemispheric mid-latitudes. Note that the temporal variability of trend curves and growth rates is dependent on the degree of smoothing chosen for the calculations. Trends of regional air pollution. Case studies of pollution episodes, notably biomass burning. Currently efforts for distinguishing between maritime and continental background levels. Methane (CH4): Long-term increase (trend) with overall decrease in growth-rates between 1983 and 2003. Stabilization until 2006. Recent increase again. Possible causes (increase in emissions in both hemispheres, drop in hydroxyl radical concentration) still under discussion (e.g., Rigby et al. (2008), Geophys. Res. Lett. 35). Seasonal variations with maximum around September/October and minimum in February. Stronger CH4 increase measured under non-background conditions since the mid-1990s. Probably related to growing local sources to the north of the station. Refer to plots of wind sector-dependent growth rates. Carbon dioxide (CO2): Continuous rise of CO2. Fluctuation of growth rates between 1.5 and 2.2 ppm yr-1 (5year smoothing), however, with an overall increase: Linear fit ranging from 1.6 ppm yr-1 in early 1993 to 2.1 ppm yr-1 at the end of 2008. Indication of recent stabilization around 2 ppm yr-1. Little seasonal variations (not shown) with an average amplitude of 0.6 ppm between maximum in August and minimum in March. Growth rates of CO2 [ppm yr-1] and CH4 [ppb yr-1] as a function of wind direction for the periods 1999 – 2005 and 2006 – 2008 are maximal for the northerly sector. This reveals increasing anthropogenic sources associated with the recent expansion of the greater Cape Town area. Carbon monoxide (CO): No significant long-term trend. However, pronounced interannual variability. Since 2003 a slight overall decline of the CO concentrations with abnormally low annual mean values for 2006 and 2008. Causes still under investigation. Note: In spite of thorough instrumental checks, the possibility of recent analytical artefacts cannot be ruled out. Seasonal variations with maximum in September/October and minimum in February. Surface ozone (O3): Positive trend between 1990 and 2002, accompanied by an increase in seasonal peakto-peak amplitudes. Since 2003 the increase has levelled off. Seasonal variations with flat July-September maximum and minimum in January.