This study examines how southern wintering areas may contribute to organochlorine (OCs) loads in arctic seabirds during breeding. Light-sensitive geolocators (GLS loggers) were deployed on Arctic skuas (Stercorarius parasiticus) in one high arctic and two subarctic colonies. Hexcahlorobenzene (HCB), chlordanes, mirex, p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloro-ethylene (p,p'-DDE), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in the blood of breeding adults at the nest (58 individuals, a total of 128 samples) in northern Norway and Svalbard between 2009 and 2015. We compared OC concentrations and OC profiles among nesting skuas wintering in five Atlantic regions, determined by the GLS loggers: the coast of Argentina, the Caribbean, off West Africa, off the coast of southern Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea. As predicted, HCB, which is semi-volatile and has high long-range transport potential, showed high prevalence in birds wintering in all regions except the Mediterranean. Mirex showed the highest prevalence in birds wintering off the coasts of Argentina and southern Africa, in accordance with high background levels previously documented in the Southern Ocean. Chlordanes were particularly prevalent in skuas wintering off southern Africa, whereas p,p'-DDE seemed relatively evenly distributed among wintering areas. As predicted, the prevalence of PCBs was much higher in birds wintering in the Mediterranean Sea than in birds from other regions. This study thus suggests that the Mediterranean Sea and the mid- and southern Atlantic are essential sources of different OCs in the blood of Arctic skuas breeding in the European Arctic.

Small pelagic fish (SPF) play a vital role in marine ecosystems, transferring energy from plankton to higher trophic levels. However, SPF dynamics in shallow coastal areas are often under-studied, despite their importance as crucial prey near breeding sites of fish-eating birds such as common terns (Sterna hirundo). This study had two connected objectives: to map the pelagic fish food landscape in the inlets of the Dutch Wadden Sea and to describe its use by common terns. Two hydro-acoustic fish surveys were conducted in May and October 2022, while tern distribution was assessed using aerial counts and GPS tracking. Prey selection was analyzed through camera traps and DNA analysis of faeces. Herring and sprat were the predominant species in the SPF community, with sandeel also abundant in May. Smelt was most common in freshwater-influenced areas. Most fish were below 12 cm, fitting the preferred size range for common terns. SPF energy density ranged from 20.1 to 22.1 kJ/g dry weight, with sprat having the highest values. SPF biomass showed significant spatiotemporal variability across transects, inlets, and seasons. Common terns foraged frequently around the gullies, feeding mostly on herring. A significant correlation was found between fish biomass and common tern density, indicating food landscape may be a good predictor of tern distribution and vice versa. This study presents the first integrated biomass estimates of SPF in the subtidal areas of Dutch Wadden Sea for both spring and autumn, providing essential data for future energy budget models and management strategies.

1. Matrix models are often used to assess and predict the impact of human activities on wild populations. These models require input values of demographic parameters, that is survival and fecundity. However, empirical estimates of these parameters are often not available, particularly for survival. 2. We built matrix population models for 25 species of marine birds in the north-east Atlantic. These models were based on long-term monitoring data on abundance and breeding productivity, collated for an environmental status assessment under the OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the North-East Atlantic. We started with literature-based values of age-specific survival and tuned these values to fit the observed population growth rate. 3. This database presents tuned values of age-specific survival for 25 species in four regions of the north-east Atlantic, a total of 54 regional populations. In addition, we report modelled generation time as well as the level of breeding productivity required to maintain a stable population for the same populations. 4. Practical implication. Our tuned values of age-specific survival should be used as starting values in future modelling exercises. They represent means over relatively large scales and long timespans and may need adjusting to local conditions.

Background Migratory birds generally have tightly scheduled annual cycles, in which delays can have carry-over effects on the timing of later events, ultimately impacting reproductive output. Whether temporal carry-over effects are more pronounced among migrations over larger distances, with tighter schedules, is a largely unexplored question. Methods We tracked individual Arctic Skuas Stercorarius parasiticus , a long-distance migratory seabird, from eight breeding populations between Greenland and Siberia using light-level geolocators. We tested whether migration schedules among breeding populations differ as a function of their use of seven widely divergent wintering areas across the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. Results Breeding at higher latitudes led not only to later reproduction and migration, but also faster spring migration and shorter time between return to the breeding area and clutch initiation. Wintering area was consistent within individuals among years; and more distant areas were associated with more time spent on migration and less time in the wintering areas. Skuas adjusted the period spent in the wintering area, regardless of migration distance, which buffered the variation in timing of autumn migration. Choice of wintering area had only minor effects on timing of return at the breeding area and timing of breeding and these effects were not consistent between breeding populations. Conclusion The lack of a consistent effect of wintering area on timing of return between breeding areas indicates that individuals synchronize their arrival with others in their population despite extensive individual differences in migration strategies.

Anthropogenic change is impacting ecosystems globally, causing declines in biodiversity. Long-distance migrants are particularly susceptible, as they depend on conditions over large geographical scales and are likely to experience a greater range of pressures. One long-distance migrant that has experienced substantial declines across the North-East Atlantic is the Arctic skua Stercorarius parasiticus. However, little is known about their migratory routes or strategies. We tracked 131 Arctic skuas from Scotland, the Faroe Islands, Norway and Svalbard between 2009 and 2019 using geolocators. To investigate migration strategies, we applied a hidden Markov model, using saltwater immersion data to infer stopovers and transit flights. Skuas used several discrete staging areas during migration, with an area of high marine productivity in the mid-North Atlantic being of high importance. Individuals from the different breeding populations overlapped extensively in staging areas, resulting in weak spatial connectivity between breeding and staging areas during southbound (r(M) = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.09-0.42; 0 = weak connectivity, 1 = strong connectivity) and northbound (r(M) = 0.16, 95% CI = -0.02 to 0.33) migration. Variation in migration strategies was driven by individuals from Svalbard, which belong to a population that is declining less than the other populations tracked. The relative location of wintering areas also influenced migration strategies. Individuals migrating further spent a smaller proportion of their migration at stopovers than those wintering closer. Identifying the non-breeding distribution, migration strategies and weak migratory connectivity of Arctic skuas provides a vital step towards linking conditions during migration to population dynamics and prioritising future research and conservation actions.

The release of captive-bred or translocated individuals is a strategy used worldwide to support threatened animal populations. By capture-recapture analysis, we examined the survival of released individuals when reinforcing a critically endangered Lesser White-fronted Goose population. Our analysis includes data from 646 birds, released 1984-2017, including two different age classes, divided in two distinct periods when different techniques were used. Fledglings were released with foster parents of Barnacle Geese in the first period and by a soft release without support of foster parenting in the second period. Yearlings were released by soft release in both periods. We find that use of foster parents enhances survival rates, but these differences were detectable only in the first year of life. Fledglings supported by foster parents showed significantly higher survival compared to yearlings released by soft release, but this difference was not clear when soft release was applied to both groups. Resighting data suggest that most losses occurred during the acclimation period following the release. Foster parenting may enhance survival rates due to social learning enabling the transfer of crucial behaviors (e.g. feeding, anti-predator, and migration) to released individuals. However, these conservation benefits need to be balanced against costs and potential inherent risks related to foster parenting, including the imprinting of undesired behaviors in released individuals, such as hybridization. Based on our results, we advise conservationists to carefully consider foster parenting as one method to improve survival probability, especially if capacity to produce individuals to be released is a limiting factor.

Human-driven change is impacting ecosystems globally, with consequential declines in biodiversity. Long-distance migrants are particularly susceptible as they depend on conditions over large geographical scales and are more likely to experience a greater range of pressures. One long-distance migrant that has experienced substantial declines across the North-East Atlantic is the Arctic Skua Stercorarius parasiticus however, little is known about their migratory behaviour or the routes they undertake. We used geolocators with salt-water switches to track Arctic Skuas from four breeding populations. To investigate migration strategies, we developed a Hidden Markov Model approach that used saltwater immersion data to classify stopovers and transit flights. We found that the skuas used several discrete staging areas during their south and northbound migrations with an area of apparent high marine productivity in the mid-North Atlantic being of high importance. Extensive overlap of individuals from different breeding populations occurred in staging areas, resulting in weak spatial connectivity between breeding and staging areas, further emphasizing their importance. At the population-level, variation in migration strategies was driven by individuals from Svalbard, which is declining less than the other populations tracked. Relative location of wintering areas also influenced migration strategies, with individuals migrating further spending a smaller proportion of their migration at stopovers compared to those wintering closer, and instead employed a fly-and-forage strategy. Identifying the complex non-breeding distribution, weak migratory connectivity and highly conserved migration strategies of Arctic Skuas is a vital step to link how conditions experienced during migration influences population dynamics and to prioritise future research and conservation actions.

Background Migratory birds generally have tightly scheduled annual cycles, in which delays can have carry-over effects on the timing of later events, ultimately impacting reproductive output. Whether temporal carry-over effects are more pronounced among migrations over larger distances, with tighter schedules, is a largely unexplored question. Methods We tracked individual Arctic Skuas Stercorarius parasiticus , a long-distance migratory seabird, from eight breeding populations between Greenland and Siberia using light-level geolocators. We tested whether migration schedules among breeding populations differ as a function of their use of seven widely divergent wintering areas across the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. Results Breeding at higher latitudes led not only to later reproduction and migration, but also faster spring migration and shorter time between return to the breeding area and clutch initiation. Wintering area was consistent within individuals among years; and more distant areas were associated with more time spent on migration and less time in the wintering areas. Skuas adjusted the period spent in the wintering area, regardless of migration distance, which buffered the variation in timing of autumn migration. Choice of wintering area had only minor effects on timing of return at the breeding area and timing of breeding and these effects were not consistent between breeding populations. Conclusion The lack of a consistent effect of wintering area on timing of return between breeding areas indicates that individuals synchronize their arrival with others in their population despite extensive individual differences in migration strategies. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.

Vertebrate populations are often monitored as part of broader assessments of ecosystem status, where they are expected to provide information on the ability of the ecosystem to support higher‐level predators. However, because many vertebrates are long‐lived and often only subsets of their populations can be monitored, abundance may not be sufficiently responsive to ecosystem status to provide early warnings of impending changes. Marine birds are often used as indicators of ecosystem status but, due to their long lifespan and delayed recruitment to the breeding population, changes in abundance are generally slow and often difficult to interpret. Their breeding productivity is, however, also widely monitored and much more responsive to ecosystem status, but the relevance of variation in productivity may be difficult to assess. We propose a model‐based indicator that integrates monitoring of abundance and breeding productivity through demographic matrix models. The metric of the proposed indicator is the expected population growth rate, given the observed level of breeding productivity. This expected growth rate is then compared with a threshold derived from the criteria employed for red‐listing of threatened species by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. We demonstrate the suggested approach using data from Black‐legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in the Greater North Sea region, Northwest Europe. The proposed indicator shows that the current level of breeding productivity is expected to lead to a population decline of 3–4% per year, which is equivalent to a red‐list status as Endangered for the species in this region. Our indicator approach is used in OSPAR's Quality Status Report 2023 and is expected to be used by European Union member states for reporting under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in 2024. Our approach represents a major step forward in assessing the status of marine bird populations; the ideal next step would be to develop a coherent Integrated Population Modelling (IPM) framework that would allow inclusion of all data on population abundance and demography collected across the large and diverse marine ecosystems involved.

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Data on the breeding success of several characteristic coastal breeding bird species in the Wadden Sea have been collected each year since 2015. Ten bird species considered representative of specific habitats and food groups are being monitored. The monitoring scheme on breeding success in coastal breeding birds is run as an ‘early warning system’ to follow the reproductive capacity of the bird populations in the Wadden Sea and understand the processes underlying fluctuations in populations. It is a valuable addition to the monitoring of population numbers and is carried out under a trilateral agreement with Germany and Denmark (TMAP). The data are also included in the OSPAR biodiversity indicator B3 under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The 2019 results indicate that little has changed in the poor breeding success observed in previous years, although there were some positive exceptions locally and for some species, partly related to special conservation measures.

Capsule The number of breeding pairs of Europe's largest Arctic Skua Stercorarius parasiticus colony at Slettnes, Norway, showed a dramatic decline of at least 50% over two decades, with food shortage in four years and increasing predation by Red Fox Vulpes vulpes leading to total breeding failure in five out of six recent study years. Aims To document the decline of Europe's largest Arctic Skua colony and quantify bottom-up and top-down effects on reproduction. Methods We compared nest counts between 1997-1998 and 2014-2019 and collected data on egg size, clutch size and nest success for all years, and adult body mass, nest attendance, at-sea activity, aggressive nest defence, Red Fox Vulpes vulpes encounters, daily nest survival and adult survival for 2014-2019. We deployed nest cameras to identify predators in 2018-2019. In addition, we developed a demographic model to estimate the fecundity required for a stable population. Results A higher proportion of time spent at sea, small eggs, low adult female body mass and indirect assessment of foraging fish availability suggested food shortages in four of six recent study years. At the same time, nest predation by Red Foxes, the likely predator involved, increased during the six-year study. The combined effects of food shortage and nest predation led to total breeding failures in 2017-2019. Conclusion We provide evidence of both bottom-up (food shortage) and top-down (predation) effects on reproductive investment and hatching success in this colony. The reproductive output in recent years is far too low to sustain a stable population. The severe decline of the Arctic Skua colony at Slettnes fits reported trends for this species across most of its European breeding range, as well as for its important host species, the Arctic Tern Sterna paradisaea and the Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla.

The relative number of adult males to females in a population, the adult sex ratio (ASR), is an important demographic variable in populations, which plays a role in, for instance, mating systems and viability of populations. The origins of variation in ASR between populations are often unclear. A skewed ASR in a local population may result from a skewed sex ratio among fledglings, sex differences in survival or dispersal or a combination of these. Meta-analyses show that ASRs across bird species are mostly male-biased and that male-biased survival is the main contributor to this bias. Here, we examine the origins of a female-biased ASR in a small population (3–24 breeding females in 2007–2017) of a passerine, the Northern Wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe. Because 95% of all fledglings were sexed, 88% of the individuals were colour-banded and because this species is highly philopatric, we could accurately examine: (1) fledgling sex ratio, (2) sex-specific first year and adult apparent survival and (3) sex-specific dispersal. It appeared that survival was not sex-biased for either age cohort but that fledgling sex ratio was male-biased, especially so among late broods. In addition, natal dispersal out of the breeding population was likely male-biased, in contrast to the general pattern of female-bias in avian dispersal. So, perhaps females are more common in our relict population solely because more males disperse from the population than females, without being compensated by male-biased fledgling sex ratio or survival and without compensation from immigrating males. Likely, the population sex ratio (including both adults and young) at the end of the breeding season is male-biased, because of a pronounced male-biased sex ratio among fledglings from late nests. Perhaps this male-bias induces prospecting young males to settle elsewhere to avoid competition next year, but at the same time convinces prospecting females to settle particularly in this area.

Despite the protective measures that have been implemented to increase the productivity of meadow birds, populations are still declining in most breeding and wintering areas. We therefore still do not know how large the protective efforts need to be to curb the decline of the meadow bird populations. By taking advantage of monitoring data from the populations of lapwings in the Netherlands (NL) and one region in Germany [Schleswig-Holstein (SH)], we investigated the demographic drivers responsible for the decline of the populations and evaluated the impact of protective measures. In these populations, some nests are marked with sticks such that they are not destroyed by farming activity. We analyzed the data with integrated population models and show that average demographic rates were similar in the two populations. Retrospective analyses demonstrated that variation in productivity most strongly impacted population dynamics and that its variation was influenced by the local environments. Our results confirmed that low productivity (0.55 and 0.46 fledglings per pairs in SH and NL, respectively) was the main reason for the decline of the lapwing populations. Productivity of 0.76 (SH) and 0.91 (NL) fledglings per pairs would be required to stabilize the populations. The implemented nest protection had a positive effect on nest success, but did not improve chick survival, and consequently the effect on population growth rates remained insufficient. The population growth rate in NL would increase by only 2% if all nests were protected. Our results suggest that protective measures should prioritize the reduction in predation and the improvement of chick habitat by promoting heterogeneous swards combining tall vegetation for hiding and short and open vegetation for foraging.