The Holiday Farm Fire burned over 173,900 acres over Labor Day weekend in 2020 due to a combination of prolonged dry and hot conditions and an east-wind event. The June 2021 heat dome event followed the fire, and the two events provided an opportunity to study forest regeneration after large-scale fire and through a heat wave event. Data were collected in 33 plots across the footprint of the fire, four growing seasons after the fire. The objectives were (1) to model conifer seedling abundance four years after the fire based on the distance to nearest live mature tree (seed source), topographic index, fire severity and other factors, and (2) to investigate the species composition of the conifer regeneration. The models suggested that plots where there was a close live mature tree, that were topographically cool, and that burned at moderate- or high-severity had the most prolific conifer regeneration. Duff depth, litter cover, slope, and soil water storage may also play a role in seedling abundance. Most seedlings (91.4 %) measured were Pseudotsuga menziesii, and the rest were primarily Tsuga heterophylla, however moderate-severity plots had a mixture of P. menziesii and T. heterophylla seedlings, while high-severity plots had P. menziesii seedlings almost exclusively. The results suggest that so far the moist conifer forests of the western Cascades are resilient to severe wildfire and heat wave, however moderate-severity burned areas may lead to a more diverse overstory in the region.
Shifting phosphorus (P) dynamics after wildfires can have cascading impacts from terrestrial to aquatic environments. However, it is unclear whether shifts in P composition or P concentration are responsible for changes in P dynamics post-fire. We used laboratory leaching experiments of Douglas fir forest and sagebrush shrubland chars to examine how the potential mobility of P compounds is influenced by different burn severities. Burning produced a 6.9- and 29-fold increase in particulate P mobilization but a 3.8- and 30.5-fold decrease in aqueous P released for Douglas fir forest and sagebrush shrubland, respectively. The mechanisms driving particulate- and dissolved-phase P compound mobilization were contrasting. Phosphorus compound mobilization in the particulate phase was controlled by solid char total P concentrations, while the aqueous phase was driven by solubility changes of molecular species. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) on the solid chars indicated that organic orthophosphate monoester and diester species were thermally mineralized to inorganic P moieties with burning in both vegetation types, which decreases P solubility. This coincided with the production of calcium- and magnesium-bound inorganic P compounds. With increasing burn severity there were systematic shifts in P concentration and composition - higher-severity chars mobilized P compounds in the particulate phase, although the magnitude of change was vegetation-specific. Our results indicate a post-fire transformation to both the composition of the solid charred material and how P compounds are mobilized, which may influence its environmental cycling and fate.
Tree seedling and understory vegetation re-establishment following wildfires is fundamental to landscape recovery but highly variable, depending strongly on biophysical context at small spatial scales. Onsite regeneration surveys and monitoring have been traditionally viewed as a crucial part of sustainable forest management but can be extremely difficult and time-consuming. The objectives of this study were to use a combination of ground measurements and nonparametric hypothesis tests to quantify the ecological relationship between seedling abundance and microclimate by identifying optimal ranges of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and sun for seedling abundance in postfire environments in the McKenzie River watershed in Oregon. We followed this effort by evaluating how wildfire severity alters these optimal conditions, informing concepts of conifer regeneration under shifting fire regimes in the Pacific Northwest. LOESS modeling, nonparametric statistics, and geospatial analysis quantified the top–down relationship between wildfire severity, site factors, and seedling abundance in our case study. Using LOESS models, optimal VPD ranges were found at 1.1–1.7 kPa and optimal sun ranges were found at 31.2%–47.8% (PAR). Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to compare differences in seedling abundance and optimal VPD and sun ranges (p = 0.027; p = 0.045). Their combined effect on seedling abundance was also evaluated using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test (p = 0.012). Fire severity was not significant to seedling abundance occurrence, but high-severity areas had a higher occurrence of optimal environments. However, given seed source availability, moderate-fire-severity events are still favored for predictable postfire regeneration. These results give insight into the resilience of ecosystems postfire and can be used to assess reforestation needs and monitor forest recovery. Measurements and resulting applications will benefit land managers serving as prefire data for when, inevitably, the next wildfire burns. These concepts can help repair the relationship between humans and wildland fire.
The combined effects of Indigenous fire stewardship and lightning ignitions shaped historical fire regimes, landscape patterns, and available resources in many ecosystems globally. The resulting fire regimes created complex fire-vegetation dynamics that were further influenced by biophysical setting, disturbance history, and climate. While there is increasing recognition of Indigenous fire stewardship among western scientists and managers, the extent and purpose of cultural burning is generally absent from the landscape-fire modeling literature and our understanding of ecosystem processes and development. In collaboration with the Karuk Tribe Department of Natural Resources, we developed a transdisciplinary Monte Carlo simulation model of cultural ignition location, frequency, and timing to simulate spatially explicit cultural ignitions across a 264,399-ha landscape within Karuk Aboriginal Territory in northern California. Estimates of cultural ignition parameters were developed with Tribal members and knowledge holders using existing interviews, historical maps, ethnographies, recent ecological studies, contemporary maps, and generational knowledge. Spatial and temporal attributes of cultural burning were explicitly tied to the ecology of specific cultural resources, fuel receptivity, seasonal movement patterns, and spiritual practices. Prior to colonization, cultural burning practices were extensive across the study landscape with an estimated 6972 annual ignitions, averaging approximately 6.5 ignitions per Indigenous fire steward per year. The ignition characteristics we document align closely with data on historical fire regimes and vegetation but differ substantially from the location and timing of contemporary ignitions. This work demonstrates the importance of cultural burning for developing and maintaining the ecosystems present at the time of colonization and underscores the need to work collaboratively with Indigenous communities to restore ecocultural processes in these systems.
Wildfires produce solid residuals that have unique chemical and physical properties compared to unburned materials, which influence their cycling and fate in the natural environment. Visual burn severity assessment is used to evaluate post-fire alterations to the landscape in field-based studies, yet muffle furnace methods are commonly used in laboratory studies to assess molecular scale alterations along a temperature continuum. Here, we examined solid and leachable organic matter characteristics from chars visually characterized as low burn severity that were created either on an open air burn table or from low-temperature muffle furnace burns. We assessed how the different combustion conditions influence solid and dissolved organic matter chemistries and explored the potential influence of these results on the environmental fate and reactivity. Notably, muffle furnace chars produced less leachable carbon and nitrogen than open air chars across land cover types. Organic matter produced from muffle furnace burns was more homogeneous than open air chars. This work highlights chemical heterogeneities that exist within a single burn severity category, potentially influencing our conceptual understanding of pyrogenic organic matter cycling in the natural environment, including transport and processing in watersheds. Therefore, we suggest that open air burn studies are needed to further advance our understanding of pyrogenic organic matter's environmental reactivity and fate.
Increasing wildfire severity is of growing concern in the western United States, with consequences for the production, composition, and mobilization of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial to aquatic systems. Our current understanding of wildfire impacted DOM (often termed pyrogenic DOM) composition is largely built from temperature-based studies that can be difficult to extrapolate to field conditions, which are often defined by ‘burn severity’, or the post-wildfire impact observed at a site. Thus, burn severity can encapsulate a broader range of fire and environmental conditions not exclusive to temperature. Biogeochemical studies that describe DOM along burn severity continuums remain limited but are needed to better link DOM composition with field conditions post-fire. In this study, we addressed this need with an experimental open air burn simulation that generated chars from vegetation representative of major land cover types in the western United States. The chars were leached to simulate DOM mobilization potential. The DOM composition was characterized by ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry (HR-MS) and UV/VIS absorbance and fluorescence. Our results indicated that the shifts of DOM production and composition along a burn-severity gradient depends on the land cover type that was burned, with the degree of change dependent on the composition of the starting parent vegetation material. Fluorescence signatures indicated a strong convergence across land cover types to more aromatic DOM with increasing severity, while HR-MS indicated an increase in the production of aromatic nitrogen containing DOM with increasing severity. Results from this study enhance our ability to describe DOM composition in a framework that can be more directly related with field and remote-sensing based metrics.
As contemporary wildfire activity intensifies across the western United States, there is increasing recognition that a variety of forest management activities are necessary to restore ecosystem function and reduce wildfire hazard in dry forests. However, the pace and scale of current, active forest management is insufficient to address restoration needs. Managed wildfire and landscape-scale prescribed burns hold potential to achieve broad-scale goals but may not achieve desired outcomes where fire severity is too high or too low. To explore the potential for fire alone to restore dry forests, we developed a novel method to predict the range of fire severities most likely to restore historical forest basal area, density, and species composition in forests across eastern Oregon. First, we developed probabilistic tree mortality models for 24 species based on tree characteristics and remotely sensed fire severity from burned field plots. We applied these estimates to unburned stands in four national forests to predict post-fire conditions using multi-scale modeling in a Monte Carlo framework. We compared these results to historical reconstructions to identify fire severities with the highest restoration potential. Generally, we found basal area and density targets could be achieved by a relatively narrow range of moderate-severity fire (roughly 365-560 RdNBR). However, single fire events did not restore species composition in forests that were historically maintained by frequent, low-severity fire. Restorative fire severity ranges for stand basal area and density were strikingly similar for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and dry mixed-conifer forests across a broad geographic range, in part due to relatively high fire tolerance of large grand (Abies grandis) and white fir (Abies concolor). Our results suggest historical forest conditions created by recurrent fire are not readily restored by single fires and landscapes have likely passed thresholds that preclude the effectiveness of managed wildfire alone as a restoration tool.
Wildfire is an influential driver of social and ecological change that calls for adaptive governance on federal lands. We identify supporting and limiting elements of adaptive governance in the context of wildfire management on the Deschutes National Forest (DNF). We use key findings to propose actions and leverage points to increase the US Forest Service's ability to engage in adaptive governance. Our research suggests that key supporting elements of adaptive governance within the Forest Service are generally found at the local scale. These supportive elements can be tapped to shed national-scale rigidity traps that lock the Forest Service into actions that have had problematic outcomes. The governance framework we used could be helpful in other research that aims to explore supporting and limiting elements of adaptive governance and identify high leverage points for change.
The need for fuel reduction treatments and the restoration of ecosystem resilience has become widespread in forest management given fuel accumulation across many forested landscapes and a growing risk of high-intensity wildfire. However, there has been little research on methods of assessing the effectiveness of those treatments at landscape scales. Most research has involved small-scale opportunistic case studies focused on incidents where wildland fires encountered recent restoration projects. It is important to assess whether restoration practices are successful at a landscape scale so improvements may be made as treatments are expanded and their individual effectiveness ages. This study used LiDAR acquisitions taken before and after a large-scale forest restoration project in the Malheur National Forest in eastern Oregon to broadly assess changes in fuel structure. The results showed some areas where treatments appeared effective, and other areas where treatments appeared less effective. While some aspects could be modified to improve accuracy, the methods investigated in this study offer forest managers a new option for evaluating the effectiveness of fuel reduction treatments in reducing potential damage due to wildland fire.
Fire exclusion and a lengthening fire season has resulted in an era of megafires. Fuel reduction treatments in forested ecosystems are designed to guard against future extreme wildfire behavior. Treatments create a heterogenous landscape and facilitate ecosystem function and resilience in fire-adapted forests of the western United States. Despite widespread recognition that repeated fuel treatments are needed to maintain desired stand characteristics over time, few field studies have evaluated treatment longevity. The Blue Mountains Fire and Fire Surrogate site in northeastern Oregon presented an opportunity to investigate woody fuel loading 15–17 years after four treatments: mechanical thin, prescribed burn, both thin and burn, and no treatment control. The principal findings were: (1) fine fuel load 15 years post-burn remained slightly below pre-treatment values; (2) rotten coarse fuel load was reduced post-burn, but sound coarse fuel was not altered by any active treatment; and (3) total woody fuel load 15–17 years post-treatment was similar to pre-treatment values. Understanding surface fuel loading is essential for predicting fire behavior. Overall, the effects of fuel reduction treatments on woody surface fuels were transitory in dry mixed conifer forests. Frequent maintenance treatments are recommended to protect values at risk in areas with high fire hazards. Quantifying the persistence of changes in forest conditions aids in the planning and analysis of future fuel treatments, along with scheduling maintenance of existing treated areas.
Abstract Dendroecological studies of historical tree recruitment patterns suggest mixed‐severity fire effects are common in Douglas‐fir/western hemlock forests of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA, but empirical studies linking observed fire severity to tree regeneration response are needed to expand our understanding into the functional role of fire in this forest type. Recent increases in mixed‐severity fires offered this opportunity, so we quantified the abundance, spatial distribution, species richness, and community composition of regenerating trees across a mixed‐severity fire gradient (unburned–high‐severity fire) 10 and 22 yr post‐fire, and use our results to inform a discussion of fire's functional role in western Oregon Cascades Douglas‐fir forests. Regeneration abundance was unimodal across the fire severity gradient such that the greatest mean abundance followed moderate‐severity fire (25–75% basal area mortality). Similarly, the greatest number of species was present within the most 25‐m2 regeneration quadrants (most extensive distribution) following moderate‐severity fire, relative to any other fire severity class. On average, species richness also exhibited a unimodal distribution across the severity gradient, increasing by 100% in stands that experienced moderate‐severity fire relative to unburned forests or following high‐severity fire, as predicted by the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis. Several distinct regeneration communities emerged across the fire severity gradient, including early seral tree communities indicative of those observed in initial and relay floristics successional models for this forest type. Most significantly, moderate‐severity fire alters successional trajectories and facilitates the establishment of a more diverse tree regeneration community than observed following low‐ or high‐severity fire. These communities are reflective of the diverse overstory communities commonly encountered throughout this forest type. The emergence of these diverse forests is unlikely to develop or persist in the absence of moderate‐severity fire effects, and may be perpetuated longer by recurring moderate‐severity fire relative to experiencing stand replacing fire. Therefore, moderate‐severity fire may be the most functionally important fire effect in Douglas‐fir forests and should be better represented in successional models and more prominent in ecologically based fire and forest management.
The commercial use of low-value forest-origin biomass has long been considered for its potential to offset the cost of reducing wildfire hazard. The production of biochar simultaneously consumes low-value forest biomass and produces stable charcoal that, when applied to dryland agricultural soils, can increase water holding capacity and crop yield. In this way the production of forest-origin biochar has the potential to promote forest restoration, foster forest-related employment, increase agricultural competitiveness, and sequester carbon. Biochar offers the greatest opportunity where dryland food crops, limited water availability, existing energy transmission infrastructure, and high-fire hazard forests share the same landscape. In this paper we describe a landscape-level study based on this scenario to optimize wildfire hazard reduction treatments, biochar facility locations, and agroeconomic outcomes to evaluate the potential benefits needed to carry the costs of biochar production.
Pacific marten (Martes caurina) populations have become fragmented and constricted throughout their western range, often due to factors such as increased severity of wildfires and timber harvesting. Future population declines are predicted given decreasing snow packs and changes in vegetation communities. One element of marten habitat, rest and den structures, may be particularly vulnerable. These structures are used for protection from inclement weather and predation, as well as sites for parturition. Rest structures are often considered a limiting habitat element; characterizing their abundance, type, and distribution has been suggested as a way to evaluate habitat quality. We evaluated marten resting habitat, combining vegetation data from light detection and ranging technology (LiDAR) and ground-based surveys. From 2009-2013 and 2015-2017, we located 312 unique rest structures used by 31 martens (18 males, 13 females). With ground-based surveys, we examined selection of used structures by measuring the diameter at breast height for comparison of rest structures and trees located in random plots. For broader landscape-level predicted habitat, we paired used locations with 624 randomly-sampled locations, and optimized 14 habitat covariates at 12 spatial scales using case-controlled logistic regression. Each covariate's optimized scale was used to develop a series of a priori hypothesized multi scale habitat selection models. Martens selected woody structures that were larger than random structures (rest structures = 97.8 +/- 31.0 cm; random = 52.7 +/- 24.9 cm, (x) over bar +/- SD, t = 21.6, p < 0.001). Marten habitat selection was also positively associated with increased canopy cover and structural complexity within 270 m radius of suitable rest structures and increased tree cover at the broadest scale evaluated (990 m). Our models revealed elevation was positively correlated with predicted marten resting habitat; average elevation at our used sites was 1940 m. Finally, our model depicted areas of predicted habitat near road systems, but we assumed this was an artifact from our sampling bias. Because both canopy cover and structural complexity were optimized at a 270 m radius, this may be an appropriate scale to consider for management activities such as establishing leave islands or focal areas of restoration. We provide one of the first evaluations of marten habitat incorporating the use of LiDAR, which can be broadly and accurately extrapolated for management planning and restoration prioritization.
Southern European countries rely largely on fire suppression and ignition prevention to manage a growing wildfire problem. We explored a more wholistic, long-term approach based on priority maps for the implementation of diverse management options aimed at creating fire resilient landscapes, restoring cultural fire regimes, facilitating safe and efficient fire response, and creating fire-adapted communities. To illustrate this new comprehensive strategy for fire-prone Mediterranean areas, we developed and implemented the framework in Catalonia (northeastern Spain). We first used advanced simulation modeling methods to assess various wildfire exposure metrics across spatially changing fire-regime conditions, and these outputs were then combined with land use maps and historical fire occurrence data to prioritize different fuel and fire management options at the municipality level. Priority sites for fuel management programs concentrated in the central and northeastern high-hazard forestlands. The suitable areas for reintroducing fires in natural ecosystems located in scattered municipalities with ample lightning ignitions and minimal human presence. Priority areas for ignition prevention programs were mapped to populated coastal municipalities and main transportation corridors. Landscapes where fire suppression is the principal long-term strategy concentrated in agricultural plains with a high density of ignitions. Localized programs to build defensible space and improve self-protection on communities could be emphasized in the coastal wildland-urban interface and inner intermix areas from Barcelona and Gerona. We discuss how the results of this study can facilitate collaborative landscape planning and identify the constraints that prevent a longer term and more effective solution to better coexist with fire in southern European regions.
A major goal of managers in fire-prone forests is restoring historical structure and composition to promote resilience to future drought and disturbance. To accomplish this goal, managers require information about reference conditions in different forest types, as well as tools to determine which individual trees to retain or remove to approximate those reference conditions. We used dendroecological reconstructions and General Land Office records to quantify historical forest structure and composition within a 13,600ha study area in eastern Oregon where the USDA Forest Service is planning restoration treatments. Our analysis demonstrates that all forest types present in the study area, ranging from dry ponderosa pine-dominated forests to moist mixed conifer forests, are considerably denser (273-316% increase) and have much higher basal area (60-176% increase) today than at the end of the 19th century. Historically, both dry pine and mixed conifer forest types were dominated by shade-intolerant species. Today, shade-tolerant tree cover has increased in dry pine stands, while mixed conifer stands are now dominated by shade-tolerant species. Federal managers in eastern Oregon are currently required to retain all live trees >53 cm diameter at breast height in the course of forest management activities because this size class is assumed to be under-represented on the landscape relative to historical conditions. However, we found the same or greater number of live trees >53 cm today than in the late 19th century. Restoring historical conditions usually involves removing shade-tolerant trees that established since Euro-American management significantly altered natural disturbance regimes. We evaluated a wide range of tree morphological and environmental variables that could potentially predict the age of grand fir and Douglas-fir, the most abundant shade-tolerant species found within the study area. We describe several morphological characteristics that are diagnostic of tree age and developed decision trees that predict the approximate age of trees using morphological characteristics that are easy to measure in the field such as height to live foliage or height to dead branches. Information about structural and compositional change over time combined with tree-age prediction tools provides a flexible framework for restoring historical conditions and meeting other resource management objectives.
Plantation success in northeastern Oregon can be limited by poor survival for western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco) seedlings. Vegetation management treatments may increase soil moisture availability during the dry summer months, thereby increasing the probability of seedling survival. Chemical site preparation treatments were applied in spring 2007, summer 2007, and spring 2008 to determine if such treatments would improve survival and growth of bareroot Douglas-fir and bareroot and plug western larch seedlings on three sites near Elgin, Oregon. Although some herbicide treatments significantly increased survival, results were not consistent among sites. Overall, Douglas-fir had greater survival after 7–8 years than larch seedlings. Seedling size 7–8 years after planting was also highly variable among sites and treatments with larch seedlings being taller and larger than Douglas-fir seedlings, on the average. Size for all stock types was negatively correlated with vegetative cover and positively correlated with first-year soil moisture. Macro- and microclimatic conditions, including topography and soil depth, were likely contributors to differences in survival and growth.
Reforestation in the Inland Northwest, including northeastern Oregon, USA, is often limited by a dry climate and soil moisture availability during the summer months. Reduction of competing vegetative cover in forest plantations is a common method for retaining available soil moisture. Several spring and summer site preparation (applied prior to planting) herbicide treatments were evaluated to determine their efficacy in reducing competing cover, thus retaining soil moisture, on three sites in northeastern Oregon. Results varied by site, year, and season of application. In general, sulfometuron (0.14 kg ai ha(-1) alone and in various mixtures), imazapyr (0.42 ae kg ha(-1)), and hexazinone (1.68 kg ai ha(-1)) resulted in 3 to 17% cover of forbs and grasses in the first-year when applied in spring. Sulfometuron+glyphosate (2.2 kg ha(-1)) consistently reduced grasses and forbs for the first year when applied in summer, but forbs recovered in the second year on two of three sites. Aminopyralid (0.12 kg ae ha(-1))+sulfometuron applied in summer also led to comparable control of forb cover. In the second year after treatment, forb cover in treated plots was similar to levels in nontreated plots, and some species of forbs had increased relative to nontreated plots. Imazapyr (0.21 and 0.42 kg ha(-1)) at either rate, spring or summer 2007, or at lower rate (0.14 kg ha(-1)) with glyphosate in summer, provided the best control of shrubs, of which snowberry was the dominant species. Total vegetative cover was similar across all treatments seven and eight years after application, and differences in vegetation were related to site rather than treatment. In the first year after treatment, rates of soil moisture depletion in the 0- to 23-cm depth were correlated with vegetative cover, particularly late season soil moisture, suggesting increased water availability for tree seedling growth.
Many forest-dependent animals require complex branch and bole structural features as substrates for nesting, and these features may take decades or centuries to develop. In young forests, lack of suitable nest substrates may limit occurrence and abundance of arboreal rodents. To test this hypothesis, we measured the response of arboreal rodents to installation of 429 artificial nest platforms at 17 young forest sites in the Coast Range of Oregon, United States. We compared the percentage of 100-m(2) plots at sites containing nests before and after installation of nest platforms, and examined 5 a priori hypotheses of spatial patterns of use using logistic regression. One year after installation, we observed a 5.8-fold increase (95% CI = 2.4-9.2) in plots containing nests of red tree voles (Arborimus longicaudus) and a 2.9-fold increase (95% CI = 1.3-4.4) of tree squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis, Tamiasciurius douglasii). In addition, we captured 37 adult red tree voles (30 females, 7 males). Presence of conspecific nests < 75 m away increased the odds of use by red tree voles but not by tree squirrels. Our results support the hypothesis that lack of suitable nest substrates limits occurrence of red tree voles in young forests, but results were ambiguous for tree squirrels. Increasing the availability of nest substrates via installation of nest platforms may increase abundance of red tree voles in young forests. However, we do not know if this will allow red tree voles to persist in young forests that are subjected to repeated commercial thinning and clear-cut harvesting.
Wildland fire suppression practices in the western United States are being widely scrutinized by policymakers and scientists as costs escalate and large fires increasingly affect social and ecological values. One potential solution is to change current fire suppression tactics to intentionally increase the area burned under conditions when risks are acceptable to managers and fires can be used to achieve long-term restoration goals in fire adapted forests. We conducted experiments with the Envision landscape model to simulate increased levels of wildfire over a 50-year period on a 1.2 million ha landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon, USA. We hypothesized that at some level of burned area fuels would limit the growth of new fires, and fire effects on the composition and structure of forests would eventually reduce future fire intensity and severity. We found that doubling current rates of wildfire resulted in detectable feedbacks in area burned and fire intensity. Area burned in a given simulation year was reduced about 18% per unit area burned in the prior five years averaged across all scenarios. The reduction in area burned was accompanied by substantially lower fire severity, and vegetation shifted to open forest and grass-shrub conditions at the expense of old growth habitat. Negative fire feedbacks were slightly moderated by longer-term positive feedbacks, in which the effect of prior area burned diminished during the simulation. We discuss trade-offs between managing fuels with wildfire versus prescribed fire and mechanical fuel treatments from a social and policy standpoint. The study provides a useful modeling framework to consider the potential value of fire feedbacks as part of overall land management strategies to build fire resilient landscapes and reduce wildfire risk to communities in the western U.S. The results are also relevant to prior climate-wildfire studies that did not consider fire feedbacks in projections of future wildfire activity.