Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km(2) headwater catchment spanning the alpine-subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4 degrees C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (-15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind-scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.

The devastating 2015 earthquakes in Nepal highlighted the need for effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) in mountains, which are inherently subject to hazards and increasingly vulnerable to extreme events. As multiple UN policy frameworks stress, DRR is crucial to mitigate the mounting environmental and socioeconomic costs of disasters globally. However, specialized DRR guidelines are needed for biodiverse, multi-hazard regions like mountains. Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) emphasizes ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainable management as key elements for DRR. We propose that integrating the emerging field of Eco-DRR with community-based DRR (CB-DRR) will help address the increasing vulnerabilities of mountain people and ecosystems. Drawing on a global mountain synthesis, we present paradoxes that create challenges for DRR in mountains and examine these paradoxes through examples from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes. We propose four principles for integrated CB- and Eco-DRR that address these challenges: (1) governance and institutional arrangements that fit local needs; (2) empowerment and capacity-building to strengthen community resilience; (3) discovery and sharing of constructive practices that combine local and scientific knowledge; and (4) approaches focused on well-being and equity. We illustrate the reinforcing relationship between integrated CB- and Eco-DRR principles with examples from other mountain systems worldwide. Coordinated community and ecosystem-based actions offer a potential path to achieve DRR, climate adaptation, sustainable development, and biodiversity conservation for vulnerable ecosystems and communities worldwide.

There is a growing consensus that transdisciplinary environmental networks are required to generate knowledge of the dynamics of coupled human–natural systems ( CHAN s) and to assess societal and policy consequences of complex environmental issues. Few of the existing large environmental observatory networks collect much, if any, data on the CHAN s coupling mechanisms, reaffirming the need to develop observing approaches and structures that address the interoperability of the diverse data being obtained from these systems. We review the characteristics of existing environmental observatories and similar initiatives used to monitor CHAN s, and identify opportunities for interoperability among them. From a synthesis of the characteristics of environmental networks representing a wide spectrum of research approaches and applications, a conceptual framework of a typical Social–Ecological Observatory ( SEO ) is presented to support long‐term, multi‐scaled CHAN s observations through a common set of principles for organizing the observatories. Finally, we identify three areas of emphasis where progress is needed to support the use and application of SEO s.

A landscape characterization procedure is described as a first step in ecosystem management. Five attributes were used to characterize patterns at different scales of ecological organization from the plot to the region: climatic regions, ecoregions, biophysical environments, floristics, and vegetation. Examples of the characterization of selected attributes are presented for three western U.S. 268study areas. Other aspects of the characterization process are illustrated with examples from the Northern Region of the Forest Service and from forested locations in the southwestern U.S. Location of a study area within a climatic region provided an understanding of broad-scale climatic constraints operating on the biota. Assessment at the ecoregion level was used to examine finer scale environmental constraints due to landform effects. The ecoregion also provided a context for further analysis of biotic and environmental variability in a study area. Biophysical environments (combinations of environmental factors) were characterized within landscapes. The range of environmental variability in a landscape was compared to that of a larger region to determine the representation of regional environments in a landscape. Biotic variability was characterized at a relatively coarse spatial scale by examining plant species distributions among floristic types. Such an analysis provided information about the long-term ecological and evolutionary pressures exerted on species in an area. Variability in vegetation was characterized at a variety of scales by examining the distribution of types within the levels of a hierarchical vegetation classification for the western U.S. In addition, biotic distributions along environmental gradients were described using canonical correspondence analysis to determine within-type variability. Temporal variability in vegetation was assessed within a hierarchical ecosystem-based framework. Characterization of biotic-abiotic relationships is important in determining biotic responses to historical and current landscape conditions. We constructed statistical models to predict biotic responses to environmental factors using a powerful class of regression models, generalized linear models. Models developed for a plant community in the Southwest, the ponderosa pine series, revealed complex biotic responses to environmental factors. This result suggests that bioticabiotic relationships warrant careful characterization, and that some commonly used simple models may not accurately predict biotic responses to environmental change.

Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological "pathology": that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders' preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

Background: Current understanding of treeline or forest-alpine ecotone (FAE) dynamics does not fully explain past and present FAE patterns and their underlying processes, nor allow prediction of their response to climate change. Aims: We address the overarching hypothesis that the FAE is a mosaic of distinct landscape units of vegetation and landforms that result in differential responses to climate change. We focus on climate-related, landscape and vegetation characteristics, but also consider the effect of landscape heterogeneity on biogeochemistry and overall resilience of the FAE to climate change. Results: There are three distinct FAE land units at Niwot Ridge, generated by different interactions of climate with vegetation, landforms and topography. Within these FAEs, a process of self-organisation takes place from organism to patch to landscape scales, and is modulated by positive and negative feedback loops along an elevation gradient. The underlying controls cannot be attributed solely to temperature, but to a combination of interactions along a physical/biotic gradient. Conclusions: FAE dynamics result from interactions among mechanisms and processes at the microsite, patch and landscape scales: (1) tree persistence; (2) forest patch establishment; (3) drivers of patch forest configurations and (4) resilience, increasing along a gradient of biotic control.

Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) are (1) customized software applications that (2) apply analytical constructs to (3) spatial data layers, (4) for the purpose of informing specific decisions and decisions makers. What is special about them is how they enable transparent decision-making processes, effectiveness monitoring, adaptive management, and making better future decisions. Custom SDSS applications can be thought of as snapshots of the logic used to make a decision. As such, they are invaluable to grounding management and its edification through learning. An SDSS clearly reveals the logic and data that decision makers use to derive their best decision to solve a specific set of problems. But at best, it represents the hypothesis—‘this is how we thought to solve these problems, given available information’. Subsequent decisions can be informed by the portions of a decision that worked/did not work, with little effort to reconstruct the evaluation, only to adapt it. EMDS is a SDSS development tool. It was conceived for application to the decision-making process of ecosystem management because these decisions are typically complex, multi-layered, and difficult to track, once made. EMDS uses spatial data layers, and there is no real limit to the number of dimensions it can consider in decision making. Here, we summarize how EMDS has been used to date and discuss new directions for expanding its utility. We also discuss how users and applications have influenced, and continue to influence, EMDS development, and new versions will no doubt reflect the evolution of decision making and technology.

Core design components of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support system were used to develop and implement the integrated restoration and protection strategy of the Northern Region of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Scenarios that spatially optimized hazardous fuel reduction, protected developed recreation values, and improved watershed conditions are presented to illustrate how the evaluation and decision modeling capabilities of the decision support system can be used sequentially in both strategic and tactical planning.

The International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network can coordinate ecological research to provide observations of the ecosystem changes, and their socio-economic impacts on human societies at different scales. In this paper we demonstrate the importance of the ILTER network in the study and monitoring of environmental changes at a global level. We give examples of how biodiversity and ecosystem service data can be used to study impacts and adaptation options in response to climate change. Analysis of the 107 recent publications from LTER networks representing 21 countries show that LTER studies are often local and heterogeneous. There are some ecosystem types, such as agricultural or coastal ecosystems that are not covered with current ILTER network. Standardized monitoring schemes and techniques should be considered for future steering of ILTER collaboration. Integrating and synthesizing the collected data should be prioritized for future cooperation, and integrated in decision-making.

The availability of spatially continuous data layers can have a strong impact on selection of land units for conservation purposes. The suitability of ecological conditions for sustaining the targets of conservation is an important consideration in evaluating candidate conservation sites. We constructed two fuzzy logic-based knowledge bases to determine the conservation suitability of land units in the interior Columbia River basin using NetWeaver software in the Ecosystem Management Decision Support application framework. Our objective was to assess the sensitivity of suitability ratings, derived from evaluating the knowledge bases, to fuzzy logic function parameters and to the removal of data layers (land use condition, road density, disturbance regime change index, vegetation change index, land unit size, cover type size, and cover type change index). The amount and geographic distribution of suitable land polygons was most strongly altered by the removal of land use condition, road density, and land polygon size. Removal of land use condition changed suitability primarily on private or intensively-used public land. Removal of either road density or land polygon size most strongly affected suitability on higher-elevation US Forest Service land containing small-area biophysical environments. Data layers with the greatest influence differed in rank between the two knowledge bases. Our results reinforce the importance of including both biophysical and socio-economic attributes to determine the suitability of land units for conservation. The sensitivity tests provided information about knowledge base structuring and parameterization as well as prioritization for future data needs.

1 Ecologist, Plymouth State University, Center for the Environment, Russell House, Plymouth, NH 03264, USA 2 Ecologist, University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, UCB 450, 1560 30th St., Boulder, CO 80309, USA 3 Evolutionary biologist, Université René-Descartes Paris V, Centre de recherches interdisciplinaires (CRI), INSERM U571, Faculté de médecine, Site Cochin Port-Royal, 75014 Paris, France

1 Ecologist, Plymouth State University, Center for the Environment, Russell House, Plymouth, NH 03264, USA 2 Ecologist, University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, UCB 450, 1560 30th St., Boulder, CO 80309, USA 3 Evolutionary biologist, Universite Rene-Descartes Paris V, Centre de recherches interdisciplinaires (CRI), INSERM U571, Faculte de medecine, Site Cochin Port-Royal, 75014 Paris, France

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone-seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback-depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.