Effective post-fire management – including flood mitigation, revegetation, and salvage logging – depends on timely and reliable burn-severity assessments that characterize impacts to vegetation and soils. These assessments are typically derived from satellite-based change detection but can be delayed or degraded by aerosols (i.e., dust or smoke), clouds, and snow. Across 9,129 large fires (≥404 ha) in Canada and the United States from 2016–2024, we quantified sources of post-fire data obstruction and evaluated observational latency – the time to acquire the first usable scene – for four freely available, moderate-resolution datasets: Landsat, Sentinel‑1, Sentinel‑2, and the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) product. For 77 fires with field-derived burn-severity indicators, we also assessed mapping accuracy in forested ecosystems and quantified variation over time. Cloud cover was the dominant cause of data obstruction, especially in mesic and coastal regions. Sentinel‑1 exhibited the shortest observational latency (median = 4 days), followed by HLS (7 days), Sentinel‑2 (10 days), and Landsat (17 days). Composite imagery from Sentinel‑1 (89.6%) and HLS (82.8%) achieved near‑complete coverage of most fires within one month, substantially better than Sentinel‑2 (70.5%) and Landsat (56.1%). HLS, Landsat, and Sentinel‑2 produced maps of stand-replacing disturbance that exceeded 80% accuracy within one month of fire, only slightly lower than maps generated after the following growing season. Sentinel‑1 had lower initial accuracy (<70%), but outperformed other sensors in winter and improved over time. High‑frequency multispectral datasets such as HLS facilitate timely, accurate post‑fire assessments, informing critical management activities that can prevent the loss of human life and minimize economic losses following fire.

Background: Understanding fire regimes is important for developing conservation strategies for drought-tolerant species with serotine cones; although, no fire-frequency studies have been undertaken in Pinus greggii a serotine species. Hypotheses: Fire occurrence in Pinus greggii stands are related to climatic conditions prior to and during the fire year, but fire regimes have changed in the last two decades induced by anthropogenic disturbances changing the fire regime. Studied species: Pinus greggii Engelm. Descriptive statistics of the fire regime. Superposed Epoch Analysis. Study site and dates: El Penitente, Cañón de las Norias, Cañón del Negro, in the municipalities of Arteaga and Saltillo, Coahuila. Year 2019. Methods: Samples from 99 fire-scarred trees at three sites in the Sierra de Zapalinamé Coahuila were collected and dated using dendrochronological techniques. Results: The fire regime was analyzed from 1840 to 2014. Most fires occurred in spring, except in CNO, where fires occurred in summer. The average fire interval for the three sites was 4-7 years with small fires, more extensive fires were less frequent (8-15 years). The occurrence of fires in TVE was significantly associated with indices of the Southern Oscillation (SOI). Fire frequencies have changed in recent decades, due to land-use changes at CNO and CNE, but not at TVE, the most isolated site with least human disturbance. Conclusions: The fire regime in populations of Pinus greggii was associated with natural climate variability and sites with greater human influence showed no significant association with climate.

Climate projections suggest ecosystems could face drastic changes due to global climate change, including more severe and frequent droughts than those recorded in the last century. Paleoclimatic series provide more extensive information than that available with instrumental records, allowing for the analysis of trends and recurrence of extreme events over a longer time periods. The objective of this research was to reconstruct the precipitation variability for southwestern Chihuahua, based on the tree-ring records of Pinus arizonica Engelm. and to assess the influence of ocean atmospheric circulations like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North American Monsoon (NAM) on both low- and high-frequency climate variability. We developed three dendrochronological series covering 214 years (1802–2015), 265 years (1750–2014) and 369 years (1647–2015), for the Talayotes (TAL), Predio Particular Las Chinas (PPC) and El Cuervo (CUE) sites, respectively. The 369-year regional chronology was significantly related to cumulative precipitation variability between January and September. Recurring droughts were observed at approximately 50-year intervals. This regional climate variability was significantly related (p < 0.05) to Niño 3 SST and PDSI (JJA) indices. Maximum and minimum extreme events reconstructed in the last 369 years were synchronized with ENSO events, both in the El Niño warm phase and the La Niña cold phase. These results suggest that P. arizonica tree rings record shared a common response to the regional climate that was significantly modulated by ENSO and the NAM. This is the first dendroclimatic study to reconstruct summer precipitation patterns in northern Mexico, which is valuable given the importance of this seasonal precipitation on the regional economy.

Background The decision making process undertaken during wildfire responses is complex and prone to uncertainty. In the US, decisions federal land managers make are influenced by numerous and often competing factors. Aims To assess and validate the presence of decision factors relevant to the wildfire decision making context that were previously known and to identify those that have emerged since the US federal wildfire policy was updated in 2009. Methods Interviews were conducted across the US while wildfires were actively burning to elucidate time-of-fire decision factors. Data were coded and thematically analysed. Key results Most previously known decision factors as well as numerous emergent factors were identified. Conclusions To contextualise decision factors within the decision making process, we offer a Wildfire Decision Framework that has value for policy makers seeking to improve decision making, managers improving their process and wildfire social science researchers. Implications Managers may gain a better understanding of their decision environment and use our framework as a tool to validate their deliberations. Researchers may use these data to help explain the various pressures and influences modern land and wildfire managers experience. Policy makers and agencies may take institutional steps to align the actions of their staff with desired wildfire outcomes.

Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia-locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings-may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity from 1180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States (US) (99,428 km2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to fire-driven transformation. We found that low pre-fire forest cover, flat slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions, spring-season burning, and areas affected by low- to moderate-severity fire within the previous 15 years were most commonly associated with refugia. Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, potential refugia were 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across forests that experienced recent fires, supporting the increased use of prescribed and resource objective fires during moderate weather conditions to promote fire-resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support post-fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing habitat for fire-sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in an increasingly fire-prone world.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Climate refugia, or places where habitats are expected to remain relatively buffered from regional climate extremes, provide an important focus for science and conservation planning. Within high-priority, multi-jurisdictional landscapes like the Madrean sky islands of the United States and México, efforts to identify and manage climate refugia are hindered by the lack of high-quality and consistent transboundary datasets. To fill these data gaps, we assembled a bi-national field dataset (n = 1416) for five pine species (Pinus spp.) and used generalized boosted regression to model pine habitats in relation to topographic variability as a basis for identifying potential microrefugia at local scales in the context of current species’ distribution patterns. We developed additional models to quantify climatic refugial attributes using coarse scale bioclimatic variables and finer scale seasonal remote sensing indices. Terrain metrics including ruggedness, slope position, and aspect defined microrefugia for pines within elevation ranges preferred by each species. Response to bioclimatic variables indicated that small shifts in climate were important to some species (e.g., P. chihuahuana, P. strobiformis), but others exhibited a broader tolerance (e.g., P. arizonica). Response to seasonal climate was particularly important in modeling microrefugia for species with open canopy structure and where regular fires occur (e.g., P. engelmannii and P. chihuahuana). Hotspots of microrefugia differed among species and were either limited to northern islands or occurred across central or southern latitudes. Mapping and validation of refugia and their ecological functions are necessary steps in developing regional conservation strategies that cross jurisdictional boundaries. A salient application will be incorporation of climate refugia in management of fire to restore and maintain pine ecology. Una versión en español de este artículo está disponible como descarga.

Prior research suggests that Indigenous fire management buffers climate influences on wildfires, but it is unclear whether these benefits accrue across geographic scales. We use a network of 4824 fire-scarred trees in Southwest United States dry forests to analyze up to 400 years of fire-climate relationships at local, landscape, and regional scales for traditional territories of three different Indigenous cultures. Comparison of fire-year and prior climate conditions for periods of intensive cultural use and less-intensive use indicates that Indigenous fire management weakened fire-climate relationships at local and landscape scales. This effect did not scale up across the entire region because land use was spatially and temporally heterogeneous at that scale. Restoring or emulating Indigenous fire practices could buffer climate impacts at local scales but would need to be repeatedly implemented at broad scales for broader regional benefits.

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America.

To sustainably manage forests, it is important to understand the historical fire regimes including the severity, frequency, seasonal timing of fires as well as the relationship between climate and fire in order to develop management plans that mimic and/or complements the natural disturbance pattern. The objectives of this study were to reconstruct the natural fire regime within a Pinus lumholtzii site in order to understand the fire regimes within this forest type as well as adjacent high timber value mixed-pine forests where historical fire regimes are not available due to past timber harvesting activities. Using 36 fire-scarred trees, we reconstructed the historical fire regimes in San Dimas, Durango, México for the last 238 years. We found a pattern of frequent fires but an absence of fire since 1962, with most fires (98%) being recorded in the spring season. The lack of fire for over six decades within these historically frequent fire forests could result in high fuel accumulation. Such conditions in combination with increasing temperatures and aridity in the region could increase the risk of high severity wildfires that could jeopardize the sustainability of these forests and the human communities that these forests support.

Background Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses, and outcomes. Results Participants in two workshops provided 11 descriptive case studies and 61 examples of VTC from their own field observations. These experiences demonstrate the extent and complexity of ecological reorganization across the region. High-severity fire was the predominant driver of VTC in semi-arid coniferous forests. By a large margin, these forests converted to shrubland, with fewer conversions to native or non-native herbaceous communities. Chaparral and sagebrush areas nearly always converted to non-native grasses through interactions among land use, climate, and fire. Management interventions in VTC areas most often attempted to reverse changes, although we found that these efforts cover only a small portion of high-severity burn areas undergoing VTC. Some areas incurred long (>10 years) observational periods prior to initiating interventions. Efforts to facilitate VTC were rare, but could cover large spatial areas. Conclusions Our findings underscore that type conversion is a common outcome of high-severity wildland fire in the southwestern US. Ecosystem managers are frontline observers of these far-reaching and potentially persistent changes, making their experiences valuable in further developing intervention strategies and research agendas. As its drivers increase with climate change, VTC appears increasingly likely in many ecological contexts and may require management paradigms to transition as well. Approaches to VTC potentially include developing new models of desired conditions, the use of experimentation by managers, and broader implementation of adaptive management strategies. Continuing to support and develop science-manager partnerships and peer learning groups will help to shape our response to ongoing rapid ecological transformations.

Managed wildfires, i.e., naturally ignited wildfires that are managed for resource benefits, have the potential to reduce fuel loads, minimize the effects of future wildfires, and restore critical natural processes across many forest landscapes. In the United States, the 2009 federal wildland fire policy guidance was designed to provide greater flexibility in the use of managed wildfires, but the effects of this policy on wildfires in the western US are not yet fully understood. Our goal was to compare managed and full suppression wildfires and to also analyze the differences between managed wildfires across space (Arizona/New Mexico and California) and time (before and after 2009) using four metrics for each wildfire: (1) distance to wilderness, (2) distance to the wildland–urban interface (WUI), (3) the percentage of area burned with high severity, and (4) the number of land management agencies. Across the study area, we found that managed wildfires were significantly closer to wilderness areas, were farther from the WUI, had a lower percentage of area that was burned at high severity, and had fewer agencies involved in managing the fire compared to full suppression wildfires. In California, managed wildfires occurred closer to wilderness and had a larger percentage of high-severity burn area compared to those in the southwest US (Arizona and New Mexico). Within each region, however, there were no significant geographic differences between managed wildfires before and after the implementation of the 2009 policy guidance. Despite the greater flexibility of the 2009 policy guidance, the basic geographic properties of managed wildfires in these two regions have not changed. As the climate warms and droughts intensify, the use of managed wildfires will need to expand during favorable weather conditions in order to address the threat of large and uncharacteristic wildfires to people and ecosystems.

Cofre de Perote National Park (CPNP) in Veracruz, Mexico is part of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt, and its Pinus hartwegii forests reflect a balance between the various natural factors that represent the region's climatology and hydrology. Like many other areas in this region, the historical fire regimes of these forests and their relationship with climate are unknown, but are needed for sustainable management plans. The main objectives of this study were to reconstruct the historical fire regime in a Pinus hartwegii forest and decipher the influenced of climate. Our investigation focused in two study areas, Valle la Teta (VT) and Barranca Honda (BH). The VT study area was divided into three sites based on humidity and elevation: 1) Humid (VTH), 2) Dry Low (VTDL) and 3) Dry High (VTDH). The approximated area for each site was ​​30, 30, 35 and 50 ha, for VTH, VTDL, VTDH and BH, respectively. We collected 162 fire scarred samples to reconstruct the fire history for the last 550 years (1461−2013). The fire scarred samples contained 1240 fire scars, with most fires occurring in spring (95 %) or summer (5%). Prior to 1973, these sites were characterized by a frequent surface fire regime. In all four sites, the mean fire intervals ranged from 5 to 6 years (for fires that scarred ≥ 10 % of the samples) and 13–23 years (for fires that scarred ≥ 25 % of the samples). Extensive fires (≥ 10 %) coincided with significantly dry conditions based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO). We also found a significant relationship between fire occurrence and ENSO, both in its warm phase, El Niño (21 fires ≥ 10 %) and in its cold phase, La Niña (32 fires ≥ 10 %). Synchronization of the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña) with the cold phase of the PDO (negative), facilitated severe drought conditions, resulting in fires with the greatest spatial extent. Since 1973, extensive fires have been absent from the study area most likely due to anthropogenic activities including active fire suppression. These results show a strong climate-fire relationship in these high elevation forests. The lack of fire in the last four decades is concerning and could potentially lead to unnatural stand-replacing fires, unless the historical fire regime is restored to maintain natural processes and increase forest resilience.

Context Spatial patterns of high-severity wildfire in forests affect vegetation recovery pathways, watershed dynamics, and wildlife habitat across landscapes. Yet, less is known about contemporary trends in landscape patterns of high-severity burn patches or how differing federal fire management strategies have influenced such patterns. Objectives We assessed fires managed for ecological/resource benefit and fires that are fully suppressed and investigated: (1) whether spatial patterns of high-severity patches differed by management strategy, (2) whether spatial patterns were related to fire size and percent high-severity fire, and (3) temporal trends in spatial patterns. Methods We examined high-severity spatial patterns within large fires using satellite-derived burn severity data from 735 fires that burned from 1984 to 2017 in Arizona and New Mexico, USA. We calculated a suite of spatial pattern metrics for each individual fire and developed a method to identify those which best explained variation among fires. Results Compared to managed fires, spatial pattern metrics in suppression fires showed greater patch homogeneity. All spatial pattern metrics showed significant relationships with fire size and percent high-severity fire for both management strategies. Mean annual spatiotemporal trends in suppression fires have moved toward smaller, more complex, fragmented patches since the early 2000s. Conclusions Increases in fire size and proportion high-severity fire are driving more homogenous patches regardless of management type, with percent high-severity more strongly driving average temporal trends. Anticipated shifts in fire size and severity will likely result in larger, more contiguous, and simple-shaped patches of high-severity fire within southwestern conifer forests.

Background Snags (standing dead trees) are important biological legacies in forest systems, providing numerous resources as well as a record of recent tree mortality. From 1997 to 2017, we monitored snag populations in drought-influenced mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) forests in northern Arizona. Results Snag density increased significantly in both forest types. This increase was driven largely by a pulse in snag recruitment that occurred between 2002 and 2007, following an extreme drought year in 2002, with snag recruitment returning to pre-pulse levels in subsequent time periods. Some later years during the study also were warmer and/or drier than average, but these years were not as extreme as 2002 and did not trigger the same level of snag recruitment. Snag recruitment was not equal across tree species and size classes, resulting in significant changes in species composition and size-class distributions of snag populations in both forest types. Because trees were far more abundant than snags in these forests, the effect of this mortality pulse on tree populations was far smaller than its effect on snag populations. Snag loss rates increased over time during the study, even though many snags were newly recruited. This may reflect the increasing prevalence of white fir snags and/or snags in the smaller size classes, which generally decay faster than snags of other species or larger snags. Thus, although total numbers of snags increased, many of the newly recruited snags may not persist long enough to be valuable as nesting substrates for native wildlife. Conclusions Increases in snag abundance appeared to be due to a short-term tree mortality “event” rather than a longer-term pattern of elevated tree mortality. This mortality event followed a dry and extremely warm year (2002) embedded within a longer-term megadrought. Climate models suggest that years like 2002 may occur with increasing frequency in the southwestern U.S. Such years may result in additional mortality pulses, which in turn may strongly affect trajectories in abundance, structure, and composition of snag populations. Relative effects on tree populations likely will be smaller, but, over time, also could be significant.

Background Fire regimes are shifting in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson)-dominated forests, raising concern regarding future vegetation patterns and forest resilience, particularly within high-severity burn patches. The southwestern US has recently experienced a marked increase in large fires that produce large, high-severity patch interiors, with few surviving trees. These areas could be more susceptible for forest loss and conversions to alternative vegetation types than areas closer to the forest edge with more available seed sources. To better understand forest recovery, we surveyed ponderosa pine regeneration within edge and core areas (>200 m from edge) of high-severity patches in ten fires that burned between 1996 to 2008 across Arizona and New Mexico, USA. Specifically, we compared regeneration density, height, and canopy cover in patch edge and core areas and used generalized linear models to investigate the abiotic and biotic factors that contribute to ponderosa pine seedling establishment and density. Results High-severity burn-patch edge and core plots were not significantly different in seedling density, height, or canopy cover across fires. Seedling establishment was more likely at higher-elevation mesic sites and less likely when Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii Nutt.) was more abundant. Seedling density was negatively impacted by shrub, grass, and Gambel oak cover. Conclusions Regeneration density varied among fires but analysis of regeneration in aggregated edge and core plots showed that abundance of seed availability was not the sole factor that limited ponderosa pine regeneration, probably because of surviving tree refugia within high-severity burn patches. Furthermore, our findings emphasize that ponderosa pine regeneration in our study area was significantly impacted by xeric topographic environments and vegetation competition. Continued warm and dry conditions and increased wildfire activity may delay the natural recovery of ponderosa pine forests, underscoring the importance of restoration efforts in large, high-severity burn patches.

The oyamel forests, as Abies dominated forests are commonly known as, register their largest distribution (95% of their population) along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). Although efforts have been made to study these forests with various approaches, dendrochronology-based studies have been limited, particularly in pure Abies forests in this region. The objective of this study was to reconstruct fire regimes in an Abies religiosa forest in the Sierra Norte in the state of Puebla, Mexico. Within an area of 50-ha, we collected 40 fire-scar samples, which were processed and analyzed using dendrochronological techniques to identify 153 fire scars. The fire history was reconstructed for a period of 118 years (1896–2013), with low severity surface fires occurring mainly during in the spring (92.8%) and summer (7.2%). Over the past century, fires were frequent, with an mean fire interval (MFI) and Weibull median probability of (WMPI) of five years when considering all fire scars and less than 10 years for fires covering larger areas (fires recorded by ≥25% of samples). Extensive fires were synchronized with drought conditions based on Ring Width Indexes, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). After 1983, we observed a change in fire frequencies attributed to regulated management. Longer fire intervals within the last several decades are likely leading to increased fuel accumulations and could potentially result in more severe fires in the future, threatening the sustainability of these forests. Based on our finding, we recommend management actions (silvicultural or prescribed fire) to reduce fuels and the risk of severe fires, particularly in the face of climatic changes.

The increasing incidence of wildfires across the southwestern United States (US) is altering the contemporary forest management template within historically frequent-fire conifer forests. An increasing fraction of southwestern conifer forests have recently burned, and many of these burned landscapes contain complex mosaics of surviving forest and severely burned patches without surviving conifer trees. These heterogeneous burned landscapes present unique social and ecological challenges. Severely burned patches can present numerous barriers to successful conifer regeneration, and often contain heavy downed fuels which have cascading effects on future fire behavior and conifer regeneration. Conversely, surviving forest patches are increasingly recognized for their value in postfire reforestation but often are overlooked from a management perspective. Here we present a decision-making framework for landscape-scale management of complex postfire landscapes that allows for adaptation to a warming climate and future fire. We focus specifically on historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern US but make connections to other forest types and other regions. Our framework depends on a spatially-explicit assessment of the mosaic of conifer forest and severely burned patches in the postfire landscape, evaluates likely vegetation trajectories, and identifies critical decision points to direct vegetation change via manipulations of fuels and live vegetation. This framework includes detailed considerations for postfire fuels management (e.g., edge hardening within live forest patches and repeat burning) and for reforestation (e.g., balancing tradeoffs between intensive and extensive planting strategies, establishing patches of seed trees, spatial planning to optimize reforestation success, and improving nursery capacity). In a future of increasing fire activity in forests where repeated low- to moderate-severity fire is essential to ecosystem resilience, the decision-making framework developed here can easily be integrated with existing postfire management strategies to optimize allocation of limited resources and more actively manage burned landscapes.

Several recent studies have documented how fire severity affects the density and spatial patterns of tree regeneration in western North American ponderosa pine forests. However, less is known about the effects of fire severity on fine-scale tree regeneration niche attributes such as understory plant composition and cover, surface fuel abundance, and soil properties, or how these attributes in turn affect regenerating ponderosa pine growth. Using 1-m(2) plots centered on 360 ponderosa pine seedlings that regenerated naturally after the Pumpkin Fire in 2000 in Arizona, we quantified regeneration niche attributes 13 years post-fire and measured their associations with seedling growth 11-16 years post-fire. Plots were established in a) unburned, b) moderate-severity, and two types of high-severity (100% tree mortality) burns, either c) adjacent to residual live forest edges (high-severity edge plots), or d) > 200 m from any residual live trees (high-severity interior plots). We found that all burned plots had greater understory plant species richness, percent cover of forbs, exotic plants and coarse wood, as well as higher soil pH, sand and gravel content, and lower soil clay content compared to unburned plots. High-severity burn plots had the greatest total understory plant and shrub cover, the most herbaceous fine fuel biomass, and tended to have the highest soil nitrogen content compared to other burn severity classes. Ponderosa pine growth (i.e., stem diameter at root collar (DRC) and length of terminal leader) was lowest in the unburned compared to burned plots, and ponderosa pine terminal leader growth was consistently greater in the high-severity edge plots compared to other seventies. Finally, niche characteristics such as overstory tree canopy cover ( - ), soil phosphate (+), and cover of coarse wood ( +), forbs (+), and the native grasses, mountain muhly (+) and squirreltail (-), were important explanatory variables of ponderosa pine growth. Exotic plant cover did not have a negative association with ponderosa pine growth. These results suggest that if ponderosa pine seeds can disperse and germinate, and if seedlings can survive the first few critical years after germination, then low overstory canopy cover and abundant forbs or coarse wood may be associated with increased growth rates. Alternatively, forbs may be responding to the same site benefits as the seedling; and abundant forbs, coarse wood, and fine fuels might also put seedlings at increased risk of mortality from subsequent fire, at least until they are taller and more fire resistant.

In 2009, new guidance for wildland fire management in the United States expanded the range of strategic options for managers working to reduce the threat of high-severity wildland fire, improve forest health and respond to a changing climate. Markedly, the new guidance provided greater flexibility to manage wildland fires to meet multiple resource objectives. We use Incident Status Summary reports to understand how wildland fire management strategies have differed across the western US in recent years and how management has changed since the 2009 Guidance for Implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. When controlling for confounding variation, we found the 2009 Policy Guidance along with other concurrent advances in fire management motivated an estimated 27 to 73% increase in the number of fires managed with expanded strategic options, with only limited evidence of an increase in size or annual area burned. Fire weather captured a manager’s intent and allocation of fire management resources relative to burning conditions, where a manager’s desire and ability to suppress is either complemented by fire weather, at odds with fire weather, or put aside due to other priorities. We highlight opportunities to expand the use of strategic options in fire-adapted forests to improve fuel heterogeneity.