Natural and human-driven disasters are a significant challenge to the sustainable production of food security crops in the Great Lakes region of Africa. A relevant research gap is the effect of climate change on the distribution of pathogens and pests of food security crops in this region. We evaluated the current geographic risk of pathogens and pests in the production of four food security crops - banana, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato - in the region, and the potential future risk under climate change. First, cropland connectivity analysis identified locations likely important in the spread and establishment of crop-specific pathogens and pests for each crop, with locations in Rwanda and Burundi emerging as important across crops. Second, we surveyed 27 economically important pathogens and pests in Rwanda and Burundi, mapping their distribution across landscapes and quantifying patterns of association. Cropland density, cropland connectivity, altitude, and contemporary and long-term temperature and precipitation were strongly associated with disease severity and pest infestation. Among ten machine-learning algorithms evaluated, random forests and support vector machines generally performed best for predicting severity and infestation. Third, an increase in temperature across altitudes is projected under future climate change scenarios in this region. We found evidence that 44% of the pathogen and pest species we studied in banana, potato, and sweetpotato could become more common with warmer temperatures at higher altitudes, while 17% may become less common. Ongoing development of pathogen and pest forecasts can guide strategic surveillance, mitigation and adaptation to future epidemics and pest invasions in high-risk crop locations under climate change. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.

The potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella Zeller) is a major invasive pest of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) worldwide. Classical biological control using parasitoids had been of primary interest during the last decades to control this pest. More than twenty parasitoid species have been reported parasitizing P. operculella. Apanteles subandinus Blanchard had been successfully used in different countries. Determination of the parasitoid's temperature‐dependent development is crucial for better predicting the potential of the parasitoid to establish in a new region and to control the target pest. Therefore, the effect of temperature on the development and reproduction of A. subandinus was studied at five constant temperatures ranging from 11–30°C in its main host P. operculella. The Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software was used to fit nonlinear equations to collected life table data and to establish an overall phenology model to simulate life table parameters based on temperature. The parasitoid completed its life cycle at constant temperatures from 15 to 30°C. Temperature of 11°C was lethal to pupae, and at 35°C no larvae development was possible. The theoretical lower threshold temperatures for the development of egg‐larvae and pupae were 10.3°C and 11.8°C respectively. The model predicted limits for survival at around 12°C and 33°C. The lowest senescence rate was observed within the temperature range of 15–25°C. Oviposition time decreased significantly with increasing temperature from 12.2 days (15°C) to 1.8 days (30°C). The highest fertility was predicted at 27°C. Maximum population growth is expected around 26.78°C with a finite rate of increase, λ of 1.0445, which corresponds to a population doubling time of 15.9 days. The highest values for gross reproduction rate (GRR) and net reproduction rate (R0) were found between 24 and 25°C, and the shortest mean generation time (T) was observed at 30°C (23.48 d). The use of the phenology model in the context of classical biological control of P. operculella is discussed.

Ensuring the sustainable production of potato is an important challenge facing agriculture globally. Insect pests are major biotic constraints affecting potato yields and tuber quality. The high pesticide uses to control them is of high human and environmental health concern, and it is expected that this will be further exacerbated through impacts of climate change. The chapter provides an overview of the geographical distribution of potato insect pests and their importance in tropical, subtropical, and temperate potato production regions. Climate change will potentially contribute to expand their geographical range of distribution, and increasing populations will lead to greater crop and post-harvest losses. Good progress has been made in applying insect pest modeling in pest risk analysis of potato pests to inform and create better awareness of future pest risks under climate change. Potato pests include some of the species which have evolved resistance to a wide variety of chemicals; and potato growers have already experienced the situation that available chemicals failed to control their targets. This chapter emphasizes the development, use, and adaptation of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) across all potato-growing regions of the world. Ultimately, this will lead to sustainable and more resilient potato production systems not overly dependent on pesticides. IPM requires a good knowledge and understanding of individual potato production systems; identifying pest species, knowing their biology and symptoms of infestation is essential for making educated decisions on their integrated management. To address this need, the chapter provides detailed information for a total of 49 insect pests of potato and the status quo of their management around the world.

Biotic constraints cause major crop losses and, hence, food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa. This study documented the popularity, production constraints, pests and diseases, farmers’ perceptions on the severity of biotic constraints and the impact of related crop losses on household food security for the key root, tuber and banana (RTB) crops (cassava, potato, sweetpotato and banana). Farmer interviews were conducted in 2014 covering 811 households in Rwanda and Burundi. Farmers were asked to list their RTB crop production constraints, name insect pests and diseases of RTB crops, estimate crop loss due to pests and diseases, and mention if their household experienced any form of food insecurity due to pests and diseases. Cutworms and late blight in potato, banana weevils and banana Xanthomonas wilt in banana, cassava whitefly and cassava mosaic disease in cassava, sweetpotato weevils, and sweetpotato virus disease in sweetpotato were the most predominant pests and diseases reported. Crop losses due to pests and diseases for sweetpotato, banana, potato and cassava were estimated at 26%, 29%, 33%, and 36%, respectively, in Rwanda and 37%, 48%, 38%, and 37% in Burundi. Pests and diseases reduce the profitability of RTB crops, threaten food security, and constitute a disincentive for investment. Sustainable and affordable integrated pest management packages need to be developed.

Misuse and poor handling of chemical pesticides in agriculture is hazardous to the health of farmers, consumers, and to the environment. We studied the pest and disease management practices and the type of pesticides used in four root, tuber, and banana (RTB) crops in Rwanda and Burundi through in-depth interviews with a total of 811 smallholder farmers. No chemical pesticides were used in banana in either Rwanda and Burundi, whereas the use of insecticides and fungicides in potato was quite frequent. Nearly all insecticides and about one third of the fungicides used are moderately hazardous. Personal protective equipment was used by less than a half of the interviewed farmers in both countries. Reported cases of death due to self- or accidental-poisoning among humans and domestic animals in the previous 12 months were substantial in both countries. Training of farmers and agrochemical retailers in safe use of pesticide and handling and, use of integrated pest management approaches to reduce pest and disease damage is recommended.

Heavy infestations of stored potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) tubers by the two potato tuber moth species Symmetrischema tangolias (Gyen) and Tecia solanivora (Povolny) frequently occur in Andean potato‐growing regions of Ecuador. The aim of the study was to develop a biological control strategy for both species using powder formulations made of inert substances, Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) granulovirus (PhopGV) and Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner subsp. kurstaki (Btk). The LC50 of PhopGV on T. solanivora was 0.33 LE/L, and Btk caused 82.7% mortality at a concentration of 100 g/L in bioassays. The efficacy of talcum, kaolin, calcium carbonate and sand ranged between 76.2% and 98.7%. Calcium carbonate was highly effective to control both species; however, its efficacy was affected by the relative humidity and dropped to 55.4% at relative humidity of 100%. PhopGV at concentrations of five larvae equivalents (LE) per kg kaolin and Btk at a concentration of 60 g Btk/kg talcum caused 95.7% and 88.1% mortality of T. solanivora, respectively. In storage experiments, the efficacy of calcium carbonate alone and in combination with PhopGV (20 LE/kg) and Btk (15 g/kg) caused 95.0–99.8% mortality of T. solanivora in all treatments and reduced infestation on potato tubers by 83.6%–91.0%. In the case of S. tangolias, Btk significantly increased mortality to 96.5% compared with calcium carbonate alone and reduced tuber infestation by 83.4%. Storage of potato tubers in thin layers enhanced the efficacy of the calcium carbonate treatment compared with storage in bags. It was concluded that calcium carbonate alone seems to be appropriate for the control of T. solanivora, and an addition of 15 g Btk/kg would improve the control of S. tangolias. It is suggested to test these new formulations under on‐farm storage conditions.

The Andean region is the most important center of potato diversity in the world. The global warming trend which has taken place since the 1950s, that is 2-3 times the reported global warming and the continuous presence of extreme events makes this region a live laboratory to study the impact of climate change. In this review, we first present the current knowledge on climate change in the Andes, as compared to changes in other mountain areas, and the globe in general. Then, the review describes the ecophysiological strategies to cope and adapt to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, temperature and soil water availability. As climate change also has a significant effect on the magnitude and frequency of the incidence of pests and diseases, the current knowledge of the dynamics of vectors in the Andean region is discussed. The use of modeling techniques to describe changes in the range expansion and number of insect pest generations per year as affected by increases in temperature is also presented. Finally, the review deals with the use of crop modeling to analyze the likely impact of projected climate scenarios on potato yield and tuber initiation.

Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) is native to South America but has expanded its range and invaded many regions of the world, primarily on flowers and to a lesser extent on horticultural product shipments. As a result of initial invasion into an area, damage caused is usually significant but not necessarily sustained. Currently, it is an economic pest in selected native and invaded regions of the world. Adults cause damage by puncturing abaxial and adaxial leaf surfaces for feeding and egg laying sites. Larvae mine the leaf parenchyma tissues which can lead to leaves drying and wilting. We have recorded 365 host plant species from 49 families and more than 106 parasitoid species. In a subset of the Argentinian data, we found that parasitoid community composition attacking L. huidobrensis differs significantly in cultivated and uncultivated plants. No such effect was found at the world level, probably due to differences in collection methods in the different references. We review the existing knowledge as a means of setting the context for new and unpublished data. The main objective is to provide an update of widely dispersed and until now unpublished data, evaluate dispersion of the leafminer and management strategies in different regions of the world, and highlight the need to consider the possible effects of climate change on further regional invasions or expansions.

The Andean potato tuber moth, Symmetrischema tangolias (Gyen) [Lepidoptera, Gelechiidae], is an economically important pest of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in the mid‐elevated Andean region and an invasive pest of partially global importance. Determination of the pest's population life table parameters is essential for understanding population development and growth under a variety of climates and as part of a pest risk analysis. The development, mortality and reproduction were studied in two pest populations (from Peru and Ecuador) in which cohorts of each life stage were exposed to different constant temperatures ranging from 10°C to 28°C. Using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling software, nonlinear equations were fitted to the data and an overall phenology model established to simulate life table parameters based on temperature. The temperature‐dependent development curve was statistically well described for eggs by Ratkowsky's model and for larvae and pupae by Taylor's model. Variability in development time among individuals independent of temperature was significantly described by a log‐logistic model. Temperature effects on immature mortality were described using different nonlinear models. Optimal temperature for survival was between 14° and 17°C. Temperature effects on adult senescence and oviposition time were described by simple exponential models; within‐group variability was described by a Weibull distribution function. Fecundity per female due to temperature followed a nonlinear model indicating maximum reproduction at ~17°C. The established model revealed good convergence with historical life tables established at fluctuating temperatures. The results confirm that S. tangolias is more adapted to cooler temperature than the common potato tuber moth, Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller). S. tangolias develops at temperatures within the range of 8–28.8°C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (=1.053) at 21°C. The established process‐based physiological model can be used globally to simulate life table parameters for S. tangolias based on temperature and should prove helpful for evaluating the potential establishment risk and in adjusting pest management programmes.

In response to increased pest and disease problems, potato farmers use pesticides, which could raise environmental and health concerns. This study sought to promote proper and safe pesticide-handling practices by providing data needed to guide pesticide regulation policy and training for extension staff and farmers. A household survey was conducted in three major potato-growing agroecological zones of Uganda. Two hundred and four potato farmers were interviewed about the type and source of pesticides they use in potato cultivation, the frequency of applications, the use of protective clothing, and cases of pesticide poisoning. The types of pesticides used in potato were fungicides (72%), insecticides (62%), and herbicides (3%). Overall, use of personal protective equipment was low, that is, gumboots (73%), gloves (7%), face masks (16%), and long sleeve shirts (42%). Forty-three percent of farmers who applied pesticides reported having experienced skin itching, 25% skin burning sensation, 43% coughing, 60% a runny nose, 27% teary eyes, and 42% dizziness. An IPM approach involving only moderately to slightly hazardous pesticides when pest and disease incidence has reached economic injury levels and by considering all safety measures during application and storage would be environmentally recommendable and result in reduced health risks.

Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ilcym) software is an open-source computer-aided tool built on R and Java codes and linked to the uDig platform, which is a basic geographic information system (GIS). The software package consists of three modules: (i) the 'model builder'; (ii) the 'validation and simulations'; and (iii) the 'potential population distribution and risk mapping' module. ILCYM'S model builder contains a library of several empirical linear and non-linear models, including the derivations of biophysical models, which have been proposed to define critical temperature effects in insects' development. Several statistical measures are incorporated in this module for estimation of parameters and comparison of models. The validation and simulations module demonstrates the application of the phenology models for estimating and simulating insect population abundance under constant and fluctuating temperatures. Outputs of the simulations are demographic parameters that include: (i) net reproduction rate; (ii) mean generation time; (iii) intrinsic rate of increase; (iv) finite rate of increase; and (v) the doubling time. Through these analyses, the biology and temperature requirements of insects are defined, and the effects of different diets or host plants in insects' demographic are assessed. The ILCYM-GIS component estimates three indices (the establishment risk index (EI), the generation index (GI) and the activity index (AI)) that guide in assessing the potential population distribution and abundance of a particular species. Several functionalities for vector (dbf to shape, raster to points, raster to polygons, extract by points) and raster analysis (merge, cut, mask, aggregate/-disaggregate, re-class, describe, raster calculator) are part of the ILCYM-GIS component. Such features improve the manipulation of large data-sets and help ILCYM'S users in analysing and visualizing the risk assessment maps. The phenology model developed for the potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) a worldwide pest of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is used to demonstrate resulting modelling outputs.

The influence of temperature on the development, mortality, fecundity and life table parameters of two important noctuid African cereal pests, Busseola fusca and Sesamia calamistis was investigated under laboratory conditions. Experiments were carried out with larvae reared on artificial diet under eight constant temperatures (12°C, 15°C, 18°C, 20°C, 25°C, 28°C, 30°C and 35°C) and a 12L:12D photoperiod. Life table parameters were calculated using Insect Life Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) software. At 12°C and 35°C insects failed to develop. Mean development time for both species decreased with increasing temperature for all stages. Between 15°C and 30°C, mean larvae development time is divided by four for both species and adult mean longevity is divided by 1.5 and 2.5, for both sexes of S. calamistis and B. fusca, respectively. Fecundity varied according to temperature; the highest was estimated at 22°C and 24°C for B. fusca and S. calamistis, respectively. The lower thermal threshold for B. fusca and S. calamistis was, respectively, 6°C and 9°C, while the upper thermal threshold was 31°C and 32°C, respectively. The highest intrinsic rate of natural increase for B. fusca was obtained at 25°C while for S. calamistis it was obtained at 28°C. The highest net reproduction was obtained at 25°C for both species, but it was higher for S. calamistis than for B. fusca. The shortest population doubling time was observed at 25°C for B. fusca and at 28°C for S. calamistis. The optimum temperature range for development of both species was 25–28°C. The lower lower thermal threshold found for B. fusca than for S. calamistis and the higher upper thermal threshold found for S. calamistis than for B. fusca explain in part the observed distribution of both species in sub-Saharan Africa with S. calamistis occurring in all the agro-ecological zones but being usually more common than B. fusca in savannah lowland and B. fusca reported mainly from mid and high altitude areas.

Despite its theoretical prominence and sound principles, integrated pest management (IPM) continues to suffer from anemic adoption rates in developing countries. To shed light on the reasons, we surveyed the opinions of a large and diverse pool of IPM professionals and practitioners from 96 countries by using structured concept mapping. The first phase of this method elicited 413 open-ended responses on perceived obstacles to IPM. Analysis of responses revealed 51 unique statements on obstacles, the most frequent of which was "insufficient training and technical support to farmers." Cluster analyses, based on participant opinions, grouped these unique statements into six themes: research weaknesses, outreach weaknesses, IPM weaknesses, farmer weaknesses, pesticide industry interference, and weak adoption incentives. Subsequently, 163 participants rated the obstacles expressed in the 51 unique statements according to importance and remediation difficulty. Respondents from developing countries and high-income countries rated the obstacles differently. As a group, developing-country respondents rated "IPM requires collective action within a farming community" as their top obstacle to IPM adoption. Respondents from high-income countries prioritized instead the "shortage of well-qualified IPM experts and extensionists." Differential prioritization was also evident among developing-country regions, and when obstacle statements were grouped into themes. Results highlighted the need to improve the participation of stakeholders from developing countries in the IPM adoption debate, and also to situate the debate within specific regional contexts.

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 °C), relative humidity of 75±5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 °C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 °C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

<title>Abstract</title> This chapter describes the application of ILCYM (Insect Life Cycle Modelling) software, which supports the development of process-oriented temperature-driven and age-stage structured insect phenology/population models. ILCYM interactively leads the user through the steps for developing insect phenology models, for conducting simulations, and for producing potential population distribution and risk mapping under current or future temperature (climate change) scenarios. The phenology model developed for the potato tuber moth <italic>Phthorimaea operculella</italic> (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is used to demonstrate the resulting modelling outputs.

Aphids are phloem-sap sucking insects that cause important losses to potato crops, especially by virus transmission. Aphid development, their biological and physiological adaptations, and their feeding behavior are key attributes that pose major challenges to the management of aphid populations and virus spread in potato fields. These attributes are reviewed from a perspective of pest management.