Small islands are highly vulnerable to climate change as rising sea levels, warming temperatures and ocean acidification threaten marine ecosystems, livelihoods and traditional way of life. The Australian Torres Strait Islands are a low-lying archipelago between northern Australia and Papua New Guinea and face existential threats akin to small island developing states in the Pacific. We analyse trends in ocean and atmospheric variables and synthesise changes that occurred in key Torres Strait marine habitats and resources since the 1970 s. We find increasing trends in temperature, marine heatwaves, sea surface height and dry-season wind run. Other variables including solar exposure, rainfall, river discharge and net primary productivity show variability but no trend, and are typically aligned with large El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Habitats such as mangroves, seagrass meadows and coral reefs are naturally variable, but sensitive to compounding climate extremes, including ENSO-related anomalies and sustained ocean warming. Our study further explores the dependence of commercial and cultural fisheries on these foundation habitats, highlighting that habitat fluctuations combined with ocean warming are already impacting some fisheries (e.g. tropical rock lobster). Cultural totemic species such as dugongs and green turtle are also under pressure from climate change. Our synthesis informs efforts to respond and adapt to climate change. Moreover, we highlight that several interconnected initiatives are needed, including long-term monitoring, climate change communication, adaptive strategies for fisheries and communities, as well as strong governance and policy support alongside continued efforts to empower communities through capacity building, education, and equitable engagement.

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a global call for action to sustain humans, the planet and prosperity. SDG14 (Sustaining Life below water) focuses on oceans, their conservation and sustainable use. Since committing to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, there have been several calls to take stock of progress and encourage decisive action to build a sustainable future. Here we evaluate progress against achieving each of the SDG14 goals using as an example Australia’s Torres Strait tropical rock lobster (TRL) Panulirus ornatus fishery because of the very strong dependence of Indigenous fishers and local communities on this resource. Our evaluation draws on 40 years of research, highlighting how changes have improved alignment or are on-track to meet the 2030 targets. We assessed that all targets were achieved to 2025 due to the small fishery ecological footprint, sound sustainable fishery and ecosystem management, science-based management plans, economic benefits derived though sustainable management, growth in research capacity as well as access for small-scale artisanal fishers to marine resources and markets. Our case-study therefore complements best practices examples in achieving SDG14 for a regionally important fishery. To meet 2030 aspirational goals, progress was assessed as on-track to address impacts of ocean acidification, enhanced transfer of marine technology and need to work with global partners to encourage market access for sustainable fisheries that are vital in supporting Indigenous and regional livelihoods. Overall, we calculated a conservative score of 3.5 reflecting very high achievement ( 88

Fishery-independent scientific surveys are highly valuable for monitoring lobsters and other fisheries. Yet, there are relatively few long-term monitoring surveys to support the provision of management advice. A number of challenges can prevent the continuity of long-term monitoring series. This paper uses the 35-year continuous annual dive surveys for Australia’s Torres Strait tropical rock lobster (TRL) to overview strengths and limitations of a long-term scientific survey, as well as lessons learnt from having overcome a range of challenges. Fishery-independent surveys are more reliable than fishery-dependent data and are more robust to external shocks such as market drivers and fuel prices. The primary purpose of the surveys is to provide a reliable index of stock abundance together with data to inform on size and age structure, plus model parameters and reference points. Here, we also highlight additional survey benefits including: yielding positive gains relative to cost, facilitating an adaptive management approach that serves as an early warning system, reducing and resolving inter-sector conflicts, reduced frequency of stock assessments, providing data from associated habitat monitoring, improved stakeholder buy-in, utility for development of Operating Models for Management Strategy Evaluation, contribution to achieving certification, contributing to biodiversity agreements and consistent cross-jurisdictional monitoring. We analyse lessons learnt from challenges such as changes in resource management, budget cuts, increased health and safety requirements, maintenance of capability and staff capacity, stakeholder buy-in, need to validate survey results, a pandemic and changing climate. Our experiences highlight why long-term scientific surveys are considered the gold standard for fisheries monitoring and we provide insights for building and maintaining key marine monitoring series.

Coastal nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized for their multiple benefits to socio-ecological systems, including climate mitigation and adaptation (e.g. conservation, restoration and sustainable management of coastal ecosystems for climate). National climate plans, such as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) developed under the Paris Agreement, include coastal NbS as a practical and effective action to help countries achieve their climate and biodiversity targets. However, the absence of a standardized NDC structure and the lack of guidance about how NbS should be included in NDCs can hinder access to external funding for developing countries and prevent transparent reporting on progress at the international level. In this context, our aim is to understand how coastal NbS are currently included in NDCs by evaluating their alignment with the IUCN Global Standard for NbS. Our analysis focuses on the description of coastal NbS in the NDCs of Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS), as they are among the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. Overall, we find that, for the 22 coastal NbS examined in the NDCs of PSIDS, the degree of alignment with the eight criteria of the IUCN Global Standard is insufficient or partial, with slightly better alignment with the standard in revised NDCs than in original NDCs. We discuss opportunities provided by the standardization of the description of coastal NbS in NDCs, in terms of access to funding and stock taking to monitor the effectiveness of implementation and progress towards long-term goals. We also discuss the relevance of using the IUCN Global Standard for reporting on NbS in NDCs for PSIDS.

A growing number of global ocean conflict studies over the last decade have set out to advance sustainability in the Anthropocene. Many of these research projects use multiple case studies to extract lessons for wider contexts. The methods used by these studies, and the extent to which their results have validity beyond the individual case study, often remain unclear. This paper explores the challenges in performing cross-case analysis within what we denote as case-based globally focussed sustainability projects (CB-GSPs) and indicates solutions by combining information from semi-structured interviews with leading scientists from eight CB-GSPs. We identify six distinct challenges that are common across these studies with regard to generating actionable knowledge through cross-case analysis. Based on these findings, we propose a set of best practice recommendations for scientists, project partners, and funders to co-produce actionable knowledge for global projects on ocean conflict.

Co-design, co-development, and co-delivery (Co-3D for short) are activities within the co-production research pathway that are increasingly being used in climate change science and adaptation projects. However, the research community is still coming to understand how best to incorporate Co-3D in practice, as each project has a specific context around stakeholder relationships, governance arrangements, and capacity to actively participate. This paper outlines five case studies from Australia as examples of different projects engaging with Co-3D in different ways in order to explore how Co-3D is being used and might be improved. Crucially, we include the perceptions and experiences of researchers, funders and end users, as well as our own critical reflections. Each of the projects self-describes as using ‘co-production’, but the extent and format varies widely with different combinations of co-design, co-development and/or co-delivery used in each. Our findings show that without clear understanding of Co-3D within the co-production process, aspects of Co-3D may not be properly considered in planning or implementation. Co-3D activities are not completely distinct, rather they form a continuum of engagement and integration across phases of project work. Thus, the specific definitions and delineations between these terms may not be required for them to be applied. However, practical and explicit negotiation of what ‘co-production’ means in different project contexts is needed so that all parties understand their roles and responsibilities. Further, more evaluations of outcomes and stakeholder experiences are required. We provide seven principles of Co-3D that should be considered when embarking on co-production projects.

The coral reefs of the Pitcairn Islands are in one of the most remote areas of the Pacific Ocean, and yet they are exposed to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. The Pitcairn Islands Marine Protected Area was designated in 2016 and is one of the largest in the world, but the marine environment around these highly isolated islands remains poorly documented. Evidence collated here indicates that while the Pitcairn Islands' reefs have thus far been relatively sheltered from the effect of warming sea temperatures, there is substantial risk of future coral decalcification due to ocean acidification. The projected acceleration in the rate of sea level rise, and the reefs' exposure to risks from distant ocean swells and cold-water intrusions, add further uncertainty as to whether these islands and their reefs will continue to adapt and persist into the future. Coordinated action within the context of the Pitcairn Islands Marine Protected Area can help enhance the resilience of the reefs in the Pitcairn Islands. Options include management of other human pressures, control of invasive species and active reef interventions. More research, however, is needed in order to better assess what are the most appropriate and feasible options to protect these reefs.

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) ‘Business as Usual’—a continuation of current trajectories and (b) ‘More Sustainable Future’—optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

The Torres Strait tropical rock lobster Panulirus ornatus (TRL) fishery is of immense social, cultural and economic importance to the region's Indigenous fishers from both Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). During 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacted this fishery as well as a number of other fisheries reliant on international export markets. The TRL fishery is managed using an empirical (databased) Harvest Control Rule (eHCR) to rapidly provide a recommended biological catch (RBC), based on catch, fishery-independent survey indices and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE). Here, we summarize the impacts of COVID-19 on each of these critical data inputs and discuss whether the eHCR was considered adequately resilient to this unprecedented disruption to the system. Next, we use a quantitative supply chain index to analyze the impact of disruptions to the supply chain, and inform on potential adaptation strategies. The catch and CPUE data were impacted to varying degrees by external constraints influencing fishing effort, but the fishery-independent survey wasn't affected and hence there remains an unbroken survey time-series for the fishery extending back to 1989. The eHCR was shown to be reasonably robust because it incorporates longer-term trends over a 5-year period, and accords substantially more weighting (80%) to the fishery-independent survey rather than CPUE data which can be affected by trade and other disruptions. Despite the eHCR not having been tested for scenarios such as a global pandemic, this robustness is a positive given the types of disruptions we will likely face in future climate. The weak links identified in the supply chain were the same as those previously highlighted as sensitive to climate change disruptions. Our supply chain analysis quantifies the impact on system resilience of alternative paths connecting producers to consumers and reinforces that supply chains may be particularly vulnerable to external disruptions if they are not sufficiently diverse.

Food from the sea can make a larger contribution to healthy and sustainable diets, and to addressing hunger and malnutrition, through improvements in production, distribution and equitable access to wild harvest and mariculture resources and products. The supply and consumption of seafood is influenced by a range of ‘drivers’ including ecosystem change and ocean regulation, the influence of corporations and evolving consumer demand, as well as the growing focus on the importance of seafood for meeting nutritional needs. These drivers need to be examined in a holistic way to develop an informed understanding of the needs, potential impacts and solutions that align seafood production and consumption with relevant 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper uses an evidence-based narrative approach to examine how the anticipated global trends for seafood might be experienced by people in different social, geographical and economic situations over the next ten years. Key drivers influencing seafood within the global food system are identified and used to construct a future scenario based on our current trajectory (Business-as-usual 2030). Descriptive pathways and actions are then presented for a more sustainable future scenario that strives towards achieving the SDGs as far as technically possible (More sustainable 2030). Prioritising actions that not only sustainably produce more seafood, but consider aspects of access and utilisation, particularly for people affected by food insecurity and malnutrition, is an essential part of designing sustainable and secure future seafood systems.

Coral reefs in the tropical Pacific region are exposed to a range of anthropogenic local pressures. Climate change is exacerbating local impacts, causing unprecedented declines in coral reef habitats and bringing negative socio-economic consequences to Pacific communities who depend heavily on coral reefs for food, income and livelihoods. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions will drive future climate change, which will accelerate coral reef degradation. Traditional systems of resource governance in Pacific island nations provide a foundation to address local pressures and build reef resilience to climate change. Management and adaptation options should build on the regional diversity of governance systems and traditional knowledge to support community-based initiatives and cross-sectoral cooperation to address local pressures and minimize climate change impacts. Such an inclusive approach will offer enhanced opportunities to develop and implement transformative adaptation solutions, particularly in remote and regional areas where centralized management does not extend.

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a “foresighting/hindcasting” technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The “business-as-usual” future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:

This study describes the origin and characteristics of unconsolidated coral reef sediments from Maui Bay (Coral Coast, Viti Levu Island, Fiji), a site declared under customary law as Marine Protected Area (MPA) by traditional owners in Tagaqe village since the year 2000. Sediment samples were collected from five transect lines and analysed in the laboratory through drying process and sieving to fractional sizes. The results show that sediments from Maui Bay MPA are composed of very coarse sand (mean sediment size of 1.5 mm) mostly constituted of coral fragments (e.g. Seriatopora spp. and Porites spp.; coral fragments in >= 50% of grains) followed by other smaller particles of calcareous organisms (foraminifera and molluscs, 10-36% of the grains). As expected, siliciclastic sediments are most abundant near the mouth of a creek which brings in sediments from the mountainous hinterland. A comparison of Maui Bay with a non-protected fringing reef with very similar bathymetry at Tabua Sands (qualitative data) along the Coral Coast shows that the non-protected site is rich in brown algae with mostly dead corals. The darkish colour and smell of rotten eggs emanating from sediments collected at Tabua Sands suggests anoxic conditions at shallow sediment depth. This is in contrast to the clean white sediments encountered at Maui Bay indicating healthier coral reefs, which shows the importance and success of protection measures implemented here.

Design practice, at its contemporary state, contributes to replicating a homogenizing ontology that subjugates aesthetic, functional, and cultural values of non-Western design. In so doing, it becomes an instrument of colonialism and reaffirmation of a Western-centric view of the world. Decolonial Design arises as a reaction to this, proposing the integration of decolonial thought into design theory and philosophy. This study proposes a collaborative approach to design that brings the philosophy of Decolonial Design into practice, positioning design as a vehicle for rethinking problems through creative processes and initiatives, and as a transformative tool through which design can decolonize itself (and designers) while in action. This approach is demonstrated through a case study in the Yavusa Navakavu, Rewa Province, Viti Levu, Fiji, where researchers, designers, and the local community co-designed initiatives to promote the environmental conservation of their protected marine area.

Highly valuable and easily accessible marine natural resources fished under traditional “open access” arrangements pose immense challenges for sustainable management. This is particularly the case for communities struggling to balance food security, conservation and economic trade-offs. Sea cucumber (bêche-de-mer) fisheries across the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean are mostly fished for economic benefit (exported predominantly to Asian markets), and many species are considered heavily overfished. Most of these fisheries are data-poor and management is challenged by the dispersed and small-scale nature of fishing operations, and sometimes inadequate buy-in to sustainable harvest practices from stakeholders. In this study we developed a tiered harvest strategy for a commercial Indigenous-owned multi-species sea cucumber fishery in Torres Strait, northern Australia. The harvest strategy specifies pre-agreed, transparent rules for monitoring and use of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data as inputs to decision rules to regulate the fishery. The strategy outlines a tiered, step-wise approach for how data can be used to adjust the fishery take while managing risks to a resource and supporting community aspirations. This creates incentives for data collection to support the fishery. The strategy encourages voluntary application of customary and traditional laws at the local scale. It advances attempts for modern fisheries management approaches to be cognisant of the history of Indigenous Community’s stewardship knowledge in order to reinforce compliance and improve sustainable outcomes. The tiered harvest strategy framework has been implemented in Torres Strait and is also likely to be applicable to other sea cucumber and data-poor fisheries.

Climate-driven trends in ocean temperature and primary productivity are projected to differ greatly across the globe, triggering variable levels of concern for marine biota and ecosystems. Quantifying these changes, and the complex ways in which resource-dependent communities will need to respond, is inherently difficult. Existing uncertainty about the structure, function and responses of marine ecosystems, means that a multi-model or ensemble model approach is the most prudent means of assessing the potential ecosystem responses to climate change. In this study, climate-ecological projections of 13 marine ecosystem models for regions around Australia were evaluated. Model types included dynamic food web, spatial whole of ecosystem, intermediate complexity, species distribution, and size spectrum models and were all forced by high-resolution ocean model data. Each Australian region and fishery will face its own challenges in terms of ecosystem shifts and fisheries management responses over the next 30 years. Across regions, demersal systems appear to be more strongly affected by climate change than pelagic systems, with invertebrate species in shallow waters likely to respond first and to a larger degree. With the assistance of qualitative confidence evaluations, the multi-model approach was useful for identifying the likely state of concern for each functional group and thus adaptive management and research priorities. Largest model discrepancies were found between the regional ecosystem models that represent trophic interactions and the species distribution models, with implications for future assessments and adaption planning. Study results highlight that fisheries and their management will need to foster pro-active and flexible adaptation options to make the most of coming opportunities and to minimize risks or negative outcomes.

In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitative approach to develop and rank 14 foresight scenarios across a range of general and marine-relevant science domains. Indicators for each foresight were used to assess the time-specific probability of each scenario being realized. Assessments by scientists in 2 consecutive years showed foresight scoring consistency and revealed surprises. Despite high variation among scientists in scoring the year that each indicator would occur, there was overall consistency across the foresights between years. We show that foresighting can be quantitative and that individual performance and changes in likelihood can be evaluated. This approach can motivate and guide strategic planning and investment decisions by scientific institutions in response to different anticipated futures and build skills in futures thinking.

Marine social-ecological systems are influenced by the way humans interact with their environment, and external forces, which change and re-shape the environment. In many regions, exploitation of marine resources and climate change are two of the primary drivers shifting the abundance and distribution of marine living resources, with negative effects on marine-dependent communities. Governance systems determine 'who' makes decisions, 'what' are their powers and responsibilities, and 'how' they are exercised. Understanding the connections between the actors comprising governance systems and influences between governance and the environment is therefore critical to support successful transitions to novel forms of governance required to deal with environmental changes. The paper provides an analytical framework with a practical example from Vanuatu, for mapping and assessment of the governance system providing for management of coral reef fish resources. The framework enables a rapid analysis of governance systems to identify factors that can encourage, or hinder, the adaptation of communities to changes in abundance or availability of marine resources.

As atmospheric CO 2 levels continue to rise so too does the risk of severe impacts. Scientists clearly have an important role to play in preparing for and responding to climate change impacts; however, calls by scientists for global action have not led to the required changes. It is timely, therefore, for scientists to critically consider their own approach toward climate change research, particularly if we are to ameliorate or adapt to unwanted outcomes. Here we present three different pathways that allow scientists and scientific institutions to conceptualize the implications of their responses to climate change scenarios. These pathways are illustrated via three plausible futures for the marine environment under climate change. This approach allows future responsibilities, outcomes, and implication to be explored within and across pathways and can be applied to different scenarios for scientists and scientific institutions to anticipate and better prepare to contribute effectively to the future.