Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.

Identifying the factors driving juvenile recruitment is crucial for predicting the response of populations to environmental change. Importantly, how early life conditions carry over to influence recruitment may be highly dependent on the context in which they occur. For example, the effects of challenging early life conditions may be more pronounced under high densities or when young are born late in the season. We examined the ecological factors influencing local recruitment spanning three decades in Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) breeding on Kent Island, NB, Canada. The effect of nestling mass on recruitment depended on both population density and fledging date. At low-population densities or early in the breeding season, nestling mass had little effect on recruitment probability. At high-population densities or later in the breeding season, mass had a stronger effect, with heavier individuals more likely to recruit. Lighter fledglings may have lower recruitment under challenging conditions due to lower competitive ability, lower mobility and greater susceptibility to resource limitation relative to heavier fledglings. Our findings have important implications for life-history evolution and selection on body size in a changing world, highlighting the relationships between population density, timing of breeding and offspring recruitment.

In birds, rearing multiple broods per season can substantially increase the annual number of fledglings produced. However, the contribution of double-brooding to lifetime fitness is unclear because the number of recruits arising from single- and double-brooded females is rarely measured. Poor estimates of fitness also make it challenging to document potential trade-offs between double-brooding and survival or future reproductive output. To understand the contribution of double-brooding to lifetime fitness and whether double-brooding was associated with life-history trade-offs, we used 30 years of reproductive data on female Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) breeding on Kent Island, New Brunswick. Estimates of fitness included an analysis of recruitment of both F1 (first generation) and F2 (second generation) offspring from females that did and did not raise a second brood. We detected no net costs of double-brooding. Double-brooded females had higher annual apparent survival rates than single-brooded females and F1 offspring from first broods of double-brooded females were more likely to recruit into the population than F1 offspring from single-brooded females. Double-brooding also improved lifetime fitness. Recruitment of F1 offspring was positively related to the number of seasons that a female double-brooded and, as a result, there was a higher number of F2 recruits from F1 offspring arising from double-brooded females than from F1 offspring arising from single-brooded females. Our results provide strong evidence that double-brooding is a beneficial reproductive strategy for Savannah sparrows and suggests that double-brooding females are likely high-quality individuals capable of rearing two broods a season with no net fitness costs.

The evolution of mating systems reflects a balance of the often-conflicting interests of males and females. Polygyny, a mating system in which males have multiple mates, presents a fitness benefit to males, but the consequences for females are less clear. Females with polygynous social mates may suffer reduced fitness, especially secondary females who typically receive less male support. We used 32 yr of detailed reproductive data on a population of Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) breeding on Kent Island, NB, Canada, to investigate the effects of females' social mating status on 6 indices of female fitness: survival, clutch size, fledging success, number of fledglings produced per nest and annually, and recruitment of offspring. Secondary females produced fewer fledglings per nest and annually than did monogamous or primary females, and their young were less likely to recruit into the breeding population. Yearling secondary females also had lower survival rates than older secondary females. Combined with higher rates of partial brood loss among secondary females, our results suggest that secondary females are unable to provide enough care to consistently fledge all nestlings in their broods, likely due to reduced male provisioning. Given that the sex ratio of breeders in the population is female-biased, we suggest that polygyny persists despite its fitness costs because some females must mate polygynously to "make the best of a bad situation." Our study demonstrates the value of detailed, long-term population monitoring data for understanding mating systems and using multiple indices of fitness to analyze the costs of polygyny.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Lay Summary center dot Nestling Savannah Sparrows and Tree Swallows, which occur in the same habitat on Kent Island, New Brunswick, Canada, were affected differently by the same weather conditions, likely because of differences in the way their parents forage for food. center dot Nestling Tree Swallows, whose parents depend on capturing small insects in flight, were highly sensitive to rain and wind, whereas weather had relatively little effect on nestling Savannah Sparrows, which forage mainly on the ground. center dot As a consequence, Tree Swallows and other aerial insectivores may be especially vulnerable to climate change. Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) and Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) breed and forage in the same habitat on Kent Island, a boreal island in the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick, but respond differently to the same weather conditions. The 2 passerines are similar in body size but because Tree Swallows depend upon small flying insects captured on the wing, they may be more sensitive to weather than Savannah Sparrows, which forage on insects and seeds on the ground and in shrubs and trees. To compare how reproductive success in the 2 species was affected by weather conditions, we took advantage of an 18-year dataset and used a model-building approach that controlled for year, adult sex and age, and field where they nested. We focused on 3 measures of reproductive success (hatching success, fledging success, and nestling condition) and different time periods (3- to 18-day time windows) before hatching or fledging. The responses of the 2 species differed in magnitude and direction. In Tree Swallows, adding weather variables to the basic model increased the explanatory power of fixed effects by 19.1%, illustrating the swallows' sensitivity to weather. In contrast, in Savannah Sparrows, the addition of weather variables only increased the model's explanatory power by 0.4% and the proportion of variation attributed to fixed factors by only 1.5%, which reflected the species' hardiness in the face of inclement weather. Our results suggest that how a bird species forages and the nature of its prey may influence its sensitivity to weather and indicate that increased rainfall, strong winds and other events associated with climate change may affect Tree Swallows and other aerial insectivores more than ground-foraging birds such as Savannah Sparrows.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to adjust the timing of life-history events in response to environmental and demographic conditions. Shifts by individuals in the timing of breeding with respect to variation in age and temperature are well documented in nature, and these changes are known to scale to affect population dynamics. However, relatively little is known about how organisms alter phenology in response to other demographic and environmental factors. We investigated how pre-breeding temperature, breeding population density, age, and rainfall in the first month of life influenced the timing and plasticity of lay date in a population of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) monitored over 33 yr (1987-2019). Females that experienced warmer pre-breeding temperatures tended to lay eggs earlier, as did older females, but breeding population density had no effect on lay date. Natal precipitation interacted with age to influence lay date plasticity, with females that experienced high precipitation levels as nestlings advancing lay dates more strongly over the course of their lives. We also found evidence for varied pace of life; females that experienced high natal precipitation had shorter lifespans and reduced fecundity, but more nesting attempts over their lifetimes. Rainfall during the nestling period increased through time, while population density and fecundity declined, suggesting that increased precipitation on the breeding grounds may be detrimental to breeding females and ultimately the viability of the population as a whole. Our results suggest that females adjust their laying date in response to pre-breeding temperature, and as they age, while presenting new evidence that environmental conditions during the natal period can affect phenological plasticity and generate downstream, population-level effects.

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and auto-correlation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Different components of learned birdsongs change at different rates across generations, and the rate of change may correspond to the information carried by each component. To characterize the role of the buzz segment of Savannah sparrow songs, we examined recordings from southeastern Canada and the northeastern US and fully characterized buzz segments in songs recorded from two populations: one on Kent Island, NB, Canada and another in Williamstown, MA, USA. Buzzes varied geographically: Kent Island buzzes had higher mean frequencies and shorter pulse periods than Williamstown buzzes and the differences between the two populations persisted over time. Population-specific buzz characteristics also appeared to be resistant to change. Variants appeared on Kent Island in the late 1980s and were learned by some younger birds; however, these buzz variants disappeared by 2011. We conducted a playback experiment and found that males from both populations had longer responses to local buzzes. Therefore, buzz structure varies geographically; population characteristics of the buzz persist through time despite the introduction of variant forms; and territorial males discriminate between buzzes from different populations. The learned buzz segment of the song may thus serve as a population marker for Savannah sparrows.

AbstractClimate change can drive population declines for many species, often through changes to their food supply. These changes can involve a mis‐timing between periods of high food demand and peak food availability, typically from advances in breeding phenology, and/or an overall reduction in food availability. Aerial insectivores, birds that feed on insects caught in flight, are experiencing steep population declines possibly because of shifts in the timing and/or abundance of aerial insects. We determined whether changes in breeding performance over time could account for declines in Bank Riparia riparia, Barn Hirundo rustica, Cliff Petrochelidon pyrrhonota, and Tree Tachycineta bicolor Swallows, and if so, whether changes were related to shifts in breeding phenology and/or climate change. We compared breeding performance and phenology in Maritime Canada before (1962–1972) and after (2006–2016) the onset of steep population declines during the mid‐1980s, to determine whether breeding performance was reduced or phenology was advanced. Then, we modeled relationships between temperature, precipitation, breeding phenology, and performance for Barn and Tree Swallows, the only species with sufficient data, from 1960 to 2016, to determine whether phenology and performance were related to climatic conditions. Between the two time periods, we found significantly lower performance in Bank Swallows, higher performance in Barn and Tree Swallows, and unchanged performance in Cliff Swallows. We also found clutch initiation dates advanced by 8–10 d for all species except Bank Swallows. On the breeding grounds, warmer winter temperatures for Tree Swallows and less winter precipitation for Barn and Tree Swallows in a given year were associated with earlier breeding, and for Tree Swallows, changes in nestling survival. Otherwise, Barn and Tree Swallow breeding performance was unaffected by winter temperature and precipitation. Our results suggest that in this region poorer breeding performance could contribute to population declines for Bank Swallows but not for the other three species.

ABSTRACT Diagnosing causes of population declines requires an understanding of the contributions of demographic vital rates to interannual variability and long-term changes in population size. At Kent Island, New Brunswick, Canada, an isolated population of Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) collapsed between 1987 and 2010, providing a unique opportunity to reconstruct how demographic rates drive population dynamics. We fit an integrated population model to 24 yr of population count, reproductive success, and capture–recapture data to generate annual estimates of productivity, juvenile and adult survival, immigration, and the finite rate of population change (λ). The Kent Island population declined from 202 to 12 breeding adults over 24 yr, with a geometric mean decline of 11.6% per year. Annual apparent survival of adults averaged 56% across sexes, whereas annual survival and recruitment of juveniles never exceeded 6%. Transient life table response experiments revealed that variation in male and female immigration rates were the major contributors to both overall and interannual variation in λ, followed by female and male adult survival. Local recruitment and reproductive rates had little effect on variation in λ. Given broad-scale regional declines in Tree Swallows, our study shows how declines of isolated populations can be driven by reductions in immigration, especially when coupled with variation in adult survival and low local recruitment.

Telomeres are highly conserved regions of DNA that protect the ends of linear chromosomes. The loss of telomeres can signal an irreversible change to a cell's state, including cellular senescence. Senescent cells no longer divide and can damage nearby healthy cells, thus potentially placing them at the crossroads of cancer and ageing. While the epidemiology, cellular and molecular biology of telomeres are well studied, a newer field exploring telomere biology in the context of ecology and evolution is just emerging. With work to date focusing on how telomere shortening relates to individual mortality, less is known about how telomeres relate to ageing rates across species. Here, we investigated telomere length in cross-sectional samples from 19 bird species to determine how rates of telomere loss relate to interspecific variation in maximum lifespan. We found that bird species with longer lifespans lose fewer telomeric repeats each year compared with species with shorter lifespans. In addition, phylogenetic analysis revealed that the rate of telomere loss is evolutionarily conserved within bird families. This suggests that the physiological causes of telomere shortening, or the ability to maintain telomeres, are features that may be responsible for, or co-evolved with, different lifespans observed across species. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Understanding diversity in telomere dynamics'.

Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals.

Knowledge of the density-dependent processes that regulate animal populations is key to understanding, predicting, and conserving populations. In migratory birds, density-dependence is most often studied during the breeding season, yet we still lack a robust understanding of the reproductive traits through which density influences individual reproductive success. We used 27-yr of detailed, individual-level productivity data from an island-breeding population of Savannah sparrows Passerculus sandwichensis to evaluate effects of local and total annual population density on female reproductive success. Local density (number of neighbors within 50 m of a female's nest) had stronger effects on the number of young fledged than did total annual population density. Females nesting in areas of high local density were more likely to suffer nest predation and less likely to initiate and fledge a second clutch, which led to fewer young fledged in a season. Fledging fewer young subsequently decreased the likelihood of a female recruiting offspring into the breeding population in a subsequent year. Collectively, these results provide insight into the scale and reproductive mechanisms mediating density-dependent reproductive success and fitness in songbirds.