We study critical lithosphere/atmosphere /ionosphere coupling processes that precede earthquake events. Soon after the M7.8 and M7.5 in Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye on Feb 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, we started collecting and processing multi-parameter data from ground, atmosphere, and satellite observations, such as 1/ Vertical static pendulums data from the European network; 2/ Hydrogeochemical data for electrical conductivity and major ion contents from the spring water samples near Kahramanmaraş ; 3/ Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR) obtained from satellites NPOESS; 4/ Ionospheric plasma observations from China/Italy Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES1);5/Electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC) and 6/ Atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) obtained from NASA assimilation models. We have detected two temporal groups of pre-earthquake anomalies: A/few months in advance - hydrogeochemical anomalies lasting up to six months and vertical static pendulums lasting two months ahead of the seismic rupture and B/few days in advance - OLR and ACP anomalies showed an abnormal increase on Jan 15-30, along with the plasma electron and oxygen ion density from the CSES1 satellite which is highly correlated with electron density variations in the ionosphere from GPS/TEC. Two groups of identified anomalies relate to different stages of Kahramanmaraş earthquake preparation processes. The first type was linked to the crustal deformation phase and was associated primarily with the coupling processes of the lithosphere-atmosphere. Based on the cross-event analysis of major seismicity in the regions, we found similarities in the pre-earthquake pattern occurrence between the M7.8/M7.5 2023 Kahramanmaraş sequence and the M7.2 Van Earthquake of 2011 and two other major events.We show that we could extract new information about the different stages of earthquake preparation processes by combining ground and near-space data according to the physical concept of LAIC.
<p>We present a study on temporal and spatial characteristics of Thermal Radiation anomalies (TRA) and ionospheric total electron content (TEC) pre-earthquake abnormalities associated with the occurred in 2022 &#8220;anniversary&#8221; earthquakes. &#8220;Anniversary&#8221;&#160; is a quake occurring on the same date and following the years after the main earthquake, plus or minus several days.</p> <p>We studied eleven large earthquakes in four regions:&#160;i/Japan: M7.3 of 03.16.2022 and M9.0 of 03.11.2011&#160;East Coast&#160;Honshu;&#160;ii/Mexico: M7.6 of 09.19.2022&#160;Michoacan; M7.1 of 09.19.2017 Puebla and M8.0 of 09.19.1985 Mexico City;/iii Chile:&#160;M5.7 02.28.2022&#160;Bio-Bio&#160;and M8.8 02.27.2010&#160;Maule&#160;and&#160;/iv Taiwan: M6.9 of 09.18.2022 Taitung and M7.7 of 09.21.1999 Chi-Chil and M6.7 of 03.22.2022 Taitung and M6 of 03.27.2013 Nantou earthquake.</p> <p>We analyzed for TRA and TEC anomalies concerning the earthquake preparation zone (EPZ). For EPZ estimates, we use Dobrovolsky et al. (1979), and Bowman et al. (1998) estimates where the EPZ radius scales exponentially with earthquake magnitude, especially from Mw &#8805; 6.0 onwards, and gives an extended coverage at larger magnitudes to examine TRA and ionospheric TEC anomalies. The main goals of this study were: 1/to understand the seismotectonic conditions that preceded the earthquake re-occurrence in the same place and on the same day(s): 2/ to perform a validation study about pre-earthquake signal occurrences in the same atmospheric and solar-geophysical conditions and 3/ to understand the potential triggering mechanism. Our preliminary results show synergetic coordination between the appearance of pre-earthquake transients&#8217; effects in the atmosphere and ionosphere (with a short time lag, from hours up to a few days). The spatial characteristics of pre-earthquake anomalies were associated with the large area but inside the preparation region estimated by Dobrovolsky-Bowman. The pre-earthquake nature of the signals in the atmosphere and ionosphere was revealed by simultaneous analysis of satellite, GPS/TEC, and Satellite Earth observations. The &#8220;anniversary&#8221; events are recognized with common pre-earthquake transient re-occurrence patterns in the atmosphere/ionosphere within EPZ, scaled to the extent of the earthquake magnitude.</p>
Since the early 2000s, sea ice has experienced an increased rate of decline in thickness, extent and age. This new regime, coined the ‘New Arctic’, is accompanied by a reshuffling of energy flows at the surface. Understanding of the magnitude and nature of this reshuffling and the feedbacks therein remains limited. A novel database is presented that combines satellite observations, model output, and reanalysis data with sea ice parcel drift tracks in a Lagrangian framework. This dataset consists of daily time series of sea ice parcel locations, sea ice and snow conditions, and atmospheric states, including remotely sensed surface energy budget terms. Additionally, flags indicate when sea ice parcels travel within cyclones, recording cyclone intensity and distance from the cyclone center. The quality of the ice parcel database was evaluated by comparison with sea ice mass balance buoys and correlations are high, which highlights the reliability of this database in capturing the seasonal changes and evolution of sea ice. This database has multiple applications for the scientific community; it can be used to study the processes that influence individual sea ice parcel time series, or to explore generalized summary statistics and trends across the Arctic.
(1) Chapman University, Physics, Orange, United States (kafatos@chapman.edu), (2) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,MD, United States (Dimitar.P.Ouzounov@nasa.gov), (3) Fiodorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow, Russian Federation (pulse1549@gmail.com), (4) Chiba University,Chiba, Japan (hattori@earth.s.chiba-u.ac.jp), (5) National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan (jyliu@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw), (6) LPC2E/CNRS Orleans, France (Michel.Parrot@cnrs-orleans.fr), (7) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt,MD, United States (Patrick.T.Taylor@nasa.gov)
This collection of technical papers aims to bring recent data from many sources into the study of natural hazards. They represent a multi-instrumental approach using both ground observations: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS); and Low Earth Orbiting Electromagnetic (LEO EM) satellites missions together with Earth Observations (EO), which could reveal new information. Results from latest satellite missions, [(NPP/NASA/NOAA(US), CENTINEL, Swarm/ESA (EU), HIMAWARI (JMA, Japan), FORMOSAT-5 (Taiwan, August 2017), CSES1 (China/Italy, Feb 2018), and FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (Taiwan/United States, May 2019)], are represented in this volume. In addition, these results expand the analysis of assessing natural hazards using the latest geospace observations and by presenting the latest results with cross-disciplinary studies of earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, and hurricanes/typhoons. These significant results advance existing interdisciplinary studies of several processes: for example, the lithosphere-atmosphereionosphere coupling processes. Data from LEO satellites provide a comprehensive, global view of the variability of near-Earth space and complement ground-based observations that lack local coverage. These observations follow the earlier DEMETER (CNES, 2004–2010) satellite mission, specifically designed to make measurements in the thermosphere-ionosphere to investigate ionospheric anomalies and relate them to geohazards and space weather. We are taking advantage of the broad scope of observable electromagnetic activities by integrating ground-based observations and LEO satellites, helping to clarify the missing scientific knowledge in studying the genesis and evolution of the significant natural hazard events from space. All the studies presented are covered within the scope of Research Topics represented by two reviews, one brief research report, and nine original research papers and carried out by the community of international experts from 15 countries working in Geospace and natural hazards studies and reviewed by 28 peers, to whom we are graciously thankful. Since the late seventies, many space observations have recorded signals associated with earthquakes. The DEMETER mission has constituted a milestone for space-based investigations of seismo-associated phenomena. A critical review of space-based observations covering a wide range of observations from electromagnetic field components (in a large band of frequencies) to plasmas parameters and from particles detection to thermal anomalies were summarized by (Picozza et al.). Along with a historical review, there is an assessment of the latest developments of the most recent mission investigating the near-Earth electromagnetic environment–CSES-01 satellite—developed within a Sino-Italian and Austrian collaboration. The second review paper (Conti et al.) provided a detailed summary of the observations carried out on the ground to identify pre-earthquake activity by distinguishing them from the background characterized by natural electromagnetic and artificial Edited and reviewed by: Alexander Kokhanovsky, Telespazio Belgium, Germany
James Ransom Heirtzler passed away in Silver Spring, Maryland, on 15 July 2022, at age 96. He was born in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on 16 September 1925. James served in the U.S. Navy in the tropical and western Pacific during 1944–1946. He graduated from New York University obtaining a Ph.D. in Physics in 1953 and taught at the American University of Beirut 1953–1956. Dr. Heirtzler was at Columbia University 1960–1969, at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 1969–1985, and then at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center until retiring in 2004. He authored or coauthored 168 scientific articles, edited numerous books and participated in the production of the documentary movie “Where the Earth Turns Inside Out.” James was a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the Geological Society of America, and the American Physical Society. He led scientific cruises in all the oceans of the world and had expeditions in both Polar Regions. Dr. Heirtzler has two Antarctic geological features and a microfossil named for him: the Heirtzler Ice Piedmont (72°34′S and 61°25′W), the Heirtzler Fracture Zone (63°30′S and 162°30′E), and the microfossil “Pithonella heirtzleri.”
<p>We are studying the transient lunar phenomena (TLP) as an indicator of lunar tectonics. Seismic events can be used as a direct indicator of some tectonic activities of the planets. The Moon-Earth gravitational interaction has been studied extensively as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes. However, this is a controversial topic. Our present study investigated the reverse Earth-Moon interaction concerning the TLP activities. The lunar outgassing is potentially the leading source of TLP activities. We have investigated both Earth venting and earthquakes and have found that radon was frequently activated before significant seismic events due to the Moon-Sun interaction with the Earth (Ouzounov et al., 2018). Earthquake lights, an associated phenomenon reported before some major earthquakes, are analogous to TLP activities on the Moon. In 1972, N. Kozyrev suggested a possible lunar response to the significant seismic events on the Earth. To understand whether TLP's have any possible connection with earthquakes, we performed a statistical review between significant earthquakes, using the NEIC catalog and TLPs during 1907-1977, for four lunar areas: Aristarchus, Plato, Gassendi, and Alphonsus. We used TLP catalogs published by Middlehurst et al. 1968; Cameron, 2006; and Crotts, 2008.&#160; Our results revealed a causal relationship between significant earthquakes and TLP events. However, the strength of this relationship varies from the location and depth of the earthquakes. Deformation on the Moon triggers the degassing process, and TLPs are indicators for those underlying activities. Our work can provide new information about the origin of TLP and the existence of a possible relationship between the tectonic processes of Earth and the Moon. The Earth causes crustal tides on the Moon, and the Moon produces tides on the Earth.</p><p>&#160;</p>
The forefront of science now is in bridging fields and making connections across different disciplines, challenging our current understanding of the Earth's changes and overall state. Some of the most challenging science questions now have to do with warnings for significant geohazards and Earth-Space systems' response to climate variability affecting adaptation processes, such as geosphere changes due to climate change and resultant strategies. In recent years, the study of pre-earthquake processes has led for example to developing the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-coupling concept. This in turn provides new information about the Earth's energy balance (Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011). From space-born NASA and NOAA Earth observation of atmospheric conditions, we have shown the consistent occurrence of radiative emission anomalies in the atmosphere near or over regions of earthquakes, volcanoes, and geothermal fluxes. Our assessment shows that the latent heat released before major earthquakes is larger than the seismic energy released during the quake (Ouzounov et al., 2018). We find that the associated pre-earthquake phenomena for large events may create an additional thermodynamic contribution in the atmosphere and impact on climate, caused by sources of Earth de-gassing in the lithosphere and followed by ionization processes. Because of these findings, we start exploring major global geodynamics activities and their impact on atmospheric processes and climate through the geosphere coupling channels as a potential forward process of interaction between geohazards and climate adaptation. The reverse mechanism of climate adaptation's impact on geohazards is based on the initial idea that climate adaptation could force additional geohazards activities (McGuire, 2010). The removal of ice sheets may somehow or likely have permitted the release of stresses that had accumulated on previously confined faults, triggering earthquakes in the US, Canada, and Europe. How realistically is it to expect a change in the existing earthquake patterns in Europe, the USA, and Canada during climate change processes? It is plausible, but we do not yet know the answer. Our goal is to explore the coupling between geohazards processes and climate change processes through the lithosphere-atmosphere framework, focusing on dynamic environments, exhibiting a change in physical and thermodynamics processes over relatively small-time scales.
We present a multi parameters analysis of satellite and ground data that revealed a transient phenomenon in the atmosphere before the M6.4 earthquake in Albania on Nov 26, 2019. The observational methodology consists of data from five physical measurements: (1) Satellite Thermal Anomalies (data obtained from NOAA) on the top of the atmosphere; (2); Atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) obtained from the NASA assimilation models; (3); Measurement of Radon level variations (two gamma stations in Central Italy); (4) VHF propagation in the lower atmosphere from ground observations and; (5) Electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC) On Nov 21, 2019 our NOAA STA daily analysis over the Mediterranean detected a strong abnormal pattern between Italy and Albania. We estimated that a possible earthquake could occur in the Adriatic Sea between Italy and Albania with M5.5+ and start cross parameter validation with other observations. On Nov 26 an earthquake occurred near STA anomaly of Nov 21. The epicenter of the M6.4 earthquake in Albania is situated about 500 kilometers NE of the two-radon monitoring stations in Central Italy. Real-time hourly data show an increase in both sensors on Nov 20 (6 days before the M6.4 of Nov 26, 2019). From the satellite data these increases in radon coincide with an increase in the atmospheric chemical potential (on Nov 21), measured near the epicentral area. VHF data observed from two stations located 300 km from the epicenter in Northeast Bulgaria, indicated an intensity modulation about 90 hours (3.5 days) before the mainshock. The GPS/Total Electron Content data indicated an increase of electron concentration in the ionosphere 1-2 days before the M6.4 earthquake. We observed a synergetic abnormal response from ground and satellite data, although the ground data (radon and VHF) sensors were far from the epicenter (500 and 300 km, respectively). Starting six days before the M6.4 Nov 26 earthquake, the anomalous patterns were inside the Dobrovolsky-Bowman area of preparation. We examined the possible correlation between different pre-earthquake anomalies and the relationship between magnitude and the spatial size of the preparation zone in the framework of the Lithosphere -Atmosphere -Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) concept.
The science community is still looking for pre-earthquake indicators of major seismic events in order to minimize the loss of human life. Recent advances in satellite technology have helped to increase the scientific understanding of the nature of pre-earthquake phenomena in the atmosphere and their relationship with transitional thermal anomalies. It was realized that the thermal heat fluxes over areas of earthquake preparation are a result of air ionization by Rn 222 , its isotopes and progenies and consequent water vapor condensation on newly formed ions. Latent heat (LH) is released as a result of this process and leads to the formation of local thermal radiation anomalies (TRA) known as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). We recorded data from the most recent major earthquakes in California (2014) Nepal (2015) that allowed us to summaries TRA's main morphological features. It was also established that the TRA is part of a more complex chain of the short - term earthquake precursors, which are explained within the framework of a Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model.
Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical warming patterns and global mean values. The inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature and society. This paper focuses on uncovering the feedbacks responsible for the WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose global mean values also explain 98.7% of the global warming spread (GWS). We show that the ice-albedo feedback spread explains uncertainties in polar regions while the water vapor feedback spread explains uncertainties elsewhere. Other processes, including the cloud feedback, contribute less to the WPS as their spreads tend to cancel each other out in a model-dependent manner. Our findings suggest that the WPS and GWS could be significantly reduced by narrowing the inter-model spreads of ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks, and better understanding the spatial coupling between feedbacks.
Fourteen types of geophysical instruments deployed at the Apollo 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17 sites by the astronauts for long-term observation were collectively called the Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Package (ALSEP). These instruments were active from the times of their deployment (November 1969–December 1972) to September 1977. At the conclusion of the experiments, the raw instrument data received from the Moon prior to March 1976 were left unarchived. Portions of the data processed by the principal investigators (PIs) of these experiments had been archived at the NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive (NSSDCA) in various formats. The unarchived data, residing then on open-reel magnetic tapes, became lost in the decades since, along with much of the metadata (the supporting documents for these data). We have recently recovered 440 of the previously lost tapes, containing raw ALSEP instrument data from April through June of 1975. Here we describe the data extracted from these tapes and summarize the data products generated for archiving at the NASA Planetary Data System (PDS) and NSSDCA, along with their historical narrative. In addition, we have reformatted many of the datasets delivered to NSSDCA by the PIs in the 1970s for archiving at the PDS. Finally, we have compiled an online searchable repository of ALSEP-related documents by optically scanning tens of thousands of pages of them kept at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Texas.
We present an interdisciplinary study of observations of pre-earthquake processes associated with major earthquakes based on integrating space and ground- data. Recent large magnitude earthquakes in Asia and Europe have emphasized the various observations of multiple types of pre-earthquake signals recorded either on the ground or from space. Four physical parameters were measured from ground and satellite and used in our simulation models: 1) Ground Radon variation; 2) Outgoing Long-Wavelength Radiation (OLR) obtained from NPOES, NASA/AQUA) on top of the atmosphere (TOA); 3) Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) obtained from NASA assimilation models and; 4) electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). For this analysis we selected six large earthquakes from the last decade with differing geographic and seismo-tectonics regions: (1) M9.3, Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra, Dec 26, 2004; (2) M9.0 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Japan, March 11, 2011; (3) and (4) M7.8 and M7.3 Gorkha, Nepal, 2015; (5); M8.2 Tehuantepec, Mexico, September 8, 2017 and; (6) M7.1, Puebla central Mexico earthquakes, September 19, 2017. Our preliminary results indicate an enhancements of radon (about a week to ten days prior) coincident (with some delay) with an increase in the atmospheric chemical potential measured near the epicenter from both satellite and subsequently with an increase of outgoing infrared radiation (OLR) observed on the TOA from NOAA/NASA (a week in advance). Finally GPS/TEC data indicate an increase of electron concentration 1-4 days before the earthquakes. Although the radon variations and some of satellite OLR anomalies were observed far (>2000km) from the epicenter areas the anomalies were always inside the estimates of the Dobrovolsky-Bowman area of preparation. We examined the possible correlation between magnitude and the spatial size of earthquake preparation zone in the framework of the Lithosphere –Atmosphere -Ionosphere Coupling hypothesis. The reliable detection of pre-earthquake signals for both sea and land earthquakes was possible only by integrating satellite and ground observations. A detail summary of our approach to this study of pre-earthquake research has just been published as AGU/Wiley Geophysical Monograph Series No. 234.
The Apollo heat flow experiment (HFE) was conducted at landing sites 15 and 17. On Apollo 15, surface and subsurface temperatures were monitored from July 1971 to January 1977. On Apollo 17, monitoring took place from December 1972 to September 1977. The investigators involved in the HFE examined and archived only data from the time of deployment to December 1974. The present authors recovered and restored major portions of the previously unarchived HFE data from January 1975 through September 1977. The HFE investigators noted that temperature of the regolith well below the reach of insolation cycles (similar to 1m) rose gradually through December 1974 at both sites. The restored data showed that the subsurface warming continued until the end of observations in 1977. Simultaneously, the thermal gradient decreased, because the warming was more pronounced at shallower depths. The present study has examined potential causes for the warming. Recently acquired images of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera over the two landing sites show that the regolith on the paths of the astronauts turned darker, lowering the albedo. We suggest that, as a result of the astronauts' activities, solar heat intake by the regolith increased slightly on average, and that resulted in the observed warming. Simple analytical heat conduction models with constant regolith thermal properties can show that an abrupt increase in surface temperature of 1.6 to 3.5K at the time of probe deployment best duplicates the magnitude and the timing of the observed subsurface warmings at both Apollo sites.
Introduction: Heat flow probes were deployed successfully as part of the Apollo Lunar Surface Experiment Package (ALSEP) at the Apollo 15 and 17 landing sites [1]. The heat flow value obtained for the Apollo 15 site (21 mW/m2) was greater than the one for the Apollo 17 site (16 mW/m2). Later, data from the gamma-ray spectrometers onboard the Lunar Prospector [2] and Kaguya missions [3] showed that the surface of the Procellarum KREEP terrane (PKT), which includes the Apollo 15 site, is more abundant in heat-producing elements, K, Th, and U than the rest of the lunar surface (Fig. 1). These observations lead to the hypothesis that heat flow in the PKT is higher than in the surrounding areas due to the higher concentration of the heat-producing elements in its crust [4]. There have been no additional heat flow measurements on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972, but some robotic lunar-landing missions are being planned for the near future. The teams competing for Google’s Lunar X-prize are in their final stage of preparation. NASA may also send spacecraft to the Moon in response to President Trump’s directive of last December to send humans back to the Moon. Some future missions, such as the Resource Prospector [5], Deepspace Gateway, and the Lunar Geophysical Network [6], are already under consideration. With an anticipation that some of these future lunar missions will carry out heat flow measurements, here we present recommendations for additional measurement sites and the methodology based on the lessons learned from the Apollo and more recent lunar missions. Sites for Future Heat Flow Measurements: Even though the lunar surface has been mapped globally in terms of its abundance of heat-producing elements [2,3], their subsurface vertical distribution is unknown. Based on our current knowledge of the thermal evolution of the Moon [7], we expect that the elements are more heavily concentrated in the crust than in the mantle. We also expect that, within the crust, the elemental concentration may decrease with depth. The crust’s contribution to the Moon’s total heat budget is still relatively unknown, and that has been a major hindrance in the effort to further constrain the thermal structure of the interior. For future robotic lunar-landing missions, we propose that heat flow measurements be made in areas where the lunar crust is known to be very thin and also outside the PKT. Crustal heat production in such areas should be minimal, and thus heat flow measurements there should yield values close to the flow originating from the mantle. One might argue that the measurements reported at the Apollo 17 site serve such a purpose, but that area is likely underlain by Th-rich ejecta from the PKT basins and craters [8]. Further, the Apollo 17 site was located in a valley in a transition zone between highland and maria. The heat flow through the lunar surface there may have been affected by the sharp lithologic variation in the regolith and the underlying crust [9]. For future measurements, we suggest sites further away from the PKT on the flat central floor of mare basins, such as Mare Crisium and Mare Nectaris (Fig. 1). Crustal thickness in these basins is less than 10 km in their central parts, according to the estimates from the GRAIL mission [10]. Heat flow measurement sites should be at least 100 km from the basin rim in order to avoid the aforementioned edge effect.