The paper examines the impact of climate change in the South of Western Siberia on human health, recreational activities and a number of economic sectors: transport, construction, agriculture, and thermal power engineering.

The analysis of the agroclimatic resources of the Siberian Federal District in the warming climate has revealed statistically significant (most pronounced in the last two decades) increasing trends in the sum of active temperatures and the growing-season length due to the earlier (by 5–7 days) dates of the stable 5°C crossing in spring and the later ones (by 2–4 days) in autumn. In most of the territory, the changes in total precipitation are statistically insignificant, except for a few stations. The frequency of late and early frosts has not changed and remained within the climatological normal. The maximum growth of green biomass, which was estimated by the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values, is facilitated by an early beginning of the growing season and a rapid transition to the period of active vegetation. The influence of meteorological conditions on the growth is significant at the beginning of the growing season and is quickly leveled by mid-summer.

Thunderstorms in the Arctic sector of the Russian Federation are a key indicator of climate change, as they signal a temperature rise in this cold region. The paper considers the variability of the number of days with thunderstorms in the Asian part of the Russian Arctic for 2015–2021 based on ground-based observations. No rapid increase in the number of days with thunderstorms as compared to the long-term data was found. However, an increase in the frequency of thunderstorm activity is registered at some stations. A verification of the Total Totals instability index values obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis product with the same name and rawinsonde data did not show critical differences. The best fit was demonstrated for Yakutsk station (1.4 %); at Turukhansk and Vanavara stations, the percentage of inconsistency was 3.1 and 3.5 %, respectively. The use of the ERA5 Total Totals product in the Arctic regions is relevant for the retrospective determination of the presence of thunderstorms and their localization in sparsely populated areas. Keywords: Arctic, number of days with thunderstorm, verification, Total Totals, rawinsonde Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Sevastopol, Russia

На фоне глобального потепления климата над юго-востоком Западной Сибири участились случаи выпадения града. В работе проанализированы аэросиноптические условия образования града за 2013–2022 гг. Получено, что наибольшая повторяемость града формируется в циклонах, приходящих на исследуемую территорию с юго-запада (22 %), запада (20 %), и в циклонах местного происхождения (14 %). Чаще всего град образуется на холодных фронтах (30 %) и фронтах окклюзии (22 %). Согласно данным аэрологического зондирования, высота верхней границы конвективной облачности в дни с градом меняется в пределах 5,5–7,0 км. Максимальные значения высоты верхней границы облаков в дни с выпадением града наблюдаются в ­июле и достигают 12 км. Средние значения вертикальной мощности градовых облаков меняются в пределах 4,5–7,0 км. Against the background of global warming over the south-east of Western Siberia, hail has become more frequent. The paper analyzes the aerosynoptic conditions of hail formation for the period 2013–2022. It was found that the hail is formed with highest frequency in cyclones coming to the study area from the southwest (22 %), west (20 %) and in cyclones of local origin (14 %). Most often, hail is formed on cold fronts (30 %) and occlusion fronts (22 %). According to aerological sounding data, the height of the upper limit of convective cloudiness on days with hail varies within 5.5–7.0 km. The maximum values of the height of the upper boundary of the clouds on days with hail fall are observed in July and reach 12 km. The average values of the vertical power of hail clouds vary within 4.5–7.0 km.

Given the various consequences associated with thunderstorms, accurate forecasts of the time and location of thunderstorms can potentially have a wide range of benefits for industries such as industry, energy, transportation, agriculture, etc. In recent decades, in some regions of Russia, visual and aural methods of thunderstorm observation have been supplemented with instrumental monitoring (ground-based lightning detection systems). Global lightning systems include the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), which detects electrical discharges such as cloud-to-ground and cloud-to-cloud with a 24-hour recording of the time and coordinates of lightning discharges. The aim is a spatio-temporal analysis of lightning discharge density distribution over the territory of Western Siberia using the WWLLN data and comparison of high-density centers with the fields of K-index values. Based on WWLLN data, the number of lightning discharges was calculated for a grid with 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees cells by longitude and latitude for the areas of 50-64N and 60-95E for the period 2016-2020. The area of each cell was then calculated, and the density of lightning discharges. was calculated [discharge/(km(2)xyear)]. Analysis of temporal variability (multi-year and seasonal) of lightning activity was carried out both for the whole territory under study and for individual settlements. Calculation of lightning density was carried out for 5 km radius zones in the center of each settlement. K-Index ERA5 reanalysis product was used to estimate the degree of atmospheric instability; reanalysis data processing and visualization were performed in the MATLAB mathematical package using the author's script. Five regions with an average annual lightning density exceeding the values of the neighboring regions by a factor of three were singled out within the investigated area. These regions are located over Kondinsky lowland (rho(max) similar to 1,4 discharge/(km(2)xyear)), Sredneobskaya lowland, Ob-Irtysh interfluves (rho(max) similar to 1 discharge/(km(2)xyear)), the eastern periphery of the Southern Urals and the northwestern periphery of the Altai-Sayan mountain country (rho(max) similar to 0,8 discharge/(km(2)xyear)). The following lightning discharge densities were recorded for the largest settlements in Western Siberia's central and southern regions: Khanty-Mansiysk (0.76 discharge/(km(2)xyear)) had the highest value, while Kyzyl city (0.08 discharge/(km(2)xyear)) had the lowest. The average lightning discharge density across all sites was 0.25 discharge/(km(2)xyear). The basic intensity of lightning activity falls in June-August (about 88 %). Even during this period, the number of lightning strikes in neighboring territories can vary by four or more times. The spatial location of the band of increased thunderstorm activity is generally consistent with the location of the northern periphery of the zone with average KIND values >= 30 degrees.

The spatial and temporal variability of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia during the summer months of 1990–2019 was analyzed using Total Totals index values computed from ERA5 (ECMWF) data. For a 30-year period and specific decades, the spatial variability of the mean Total Totals values calculated for high atmospheric instability (by values above the 75th percentile) has been estimated. Centers with maximum values of the Total Totals index were localized for the 6, 9, and 12 UTC that approximately correspond to the beginning, maximum, and end of active convection under intra-mass conditions. The intra-decadal variability of the atmospheric convective potential was evaluated based on the Total Totals index over Western Siberia. Under changing climate conditions, the areas with the greatest changes in convective potential were identified.

Реферат.Целью работы является анализ изменений климатических параметров, которые оказывают большое влияние на безопасное функционирование транспорта и сохранность дорог.Исследованы временная и пространственная изменчивости следующих климатических характеристик: средние и экстремальные значения температуры воздуха и атмосферных осадков, частота переходов средней суточной температуры воздуха через 0°С, характеристики снежного покрова, направление и скорость ветра, повторяемость метелей и гололедно-изморозевых явлений.Установлено, что на развитие транспортной системы оказывают негативное воздействие:•Выросшая экстремальность климата.•Смещение дат устойчивого перехода средних суточных температур воздуха через 0 и 5°С.Весной они смещаются на более ранние, а осенью -на более поздние сроки.Поэтому сокращается период использования «зимников», увеличивается и число переходов температуры воздуха через 0°С.•Повсеместный рост сумм годовых осадков от 5 мм/10 лет до 20 мм/10 лет.Уменьшение периодов с кратковременными осадками (1-5 дней) и увеличение более продолжительных (6-10 дней), с преобладанием ливневых.•Увеличение числа и средней продолжительности периодов зимней скользкости (с вероятностью 95%), особенно заметное в северных районах области, где актуально строительство новых дорог.К благоприятным для развития транспортной инфраструктуры факторам относятся:•Уменьшение ветровых нагрузок.Число дней с ветром 15 м/с и более сократилось на 70-80 %, варьируя в диапазоне 5-15 дней.•Сокращение числа и продолжительности метелей в 1.5-2 раза.•Уменьшение продолжительности залегания снежного покрова, обусловленное изменением сроков его залегания и разрушения, которые способствуют уменьшению снегопереноса.Из анализа совокупности факторов можно утверждать, что изменения климата не становятся более благоприятными для развития транспортной

Представлены результаты сравнительного анализа пространственно-временной изменчивости конвективной неустойчивости на юге Западной Сибири по данным индексов неустойчивости K-Index и Total Totals, полученных из реанализа ERA5. Показано, что по значениям обоих индексов максимум конвективной неустойчивости над югом Западной Сибири приходится на Кулундинскую равнину и пойму верхнего течения р. Иртыш. Кроме того, высокие значения индексов наблюдаются над юго-востоком Урала и северо-востоком Васюганской равнины. Северная граница со значениями KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C и TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, указывающими на вероятность образования гроз 70%, простирается до 62◦ и 61◦ с.ш. соответственно. За период 1990–2019 гг. в динамике среднегодовых значений KIQ1, в целом по территории, преобладает положительный тренд, а в динамике TTQ1 на большей части территории значимые изменения отсутствуют, однако отмечается цикличность с периодом ∼ 10 лет.

Представлены результаты сравнительного анализа пространственно-временной изменчивости конвективной неустойчивости на юге Западной Сибири по данным индексов неустойчивости K-Index и Total Totals, полученных из реанализа ERA5. Показано, что по значениям обоих индексов максимум конвективной неустойчивости над югом Западной Сибири приходится на Кулундинскую равнину и пойму верхнего течения р. Иртыш. Кроме того, высокие значения индексов наблюдаются над юго-востоком Урала и северо-востоком Васюганской равнины. Северная граница со значениями KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C и TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, указывающими на вероятность образования гроз 70%, простирается до 62◦ и 61◦ с.ш. соответственно. За период 1990–2019 гг. в динамике среднегодовых значений KIQ1, в целом по территории, преобладает положительный тренд, а в динамике TTQ1 на большей части территории значимые изменения отсутствуют, однако отмечается цикличность с периодом ∼ 10 лет. A comparative analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia according to the K-Index and Total Totals index obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis is presented. Related to both indices, the Kulunda plain and the upper Irtysh River floodplain have the highest level of convective instability in the south of Western Siberia. In addition, high index values are observed over the southeastern Urals and the northeastern Vasyugan plain. The northern boundary extends to 62◦ and 61◦ N, respectively, with KIQ1 ≥ 30 ◦C and TTQ1 ≥ 50 ◦C, indicating a thunderstorm probability greater than 70%. The dynamics of annual average KIQ1 values for the territory as a whole are dominated by a positive trend for the period 1990–2019, and there are no significant changes in TTQ1 dynamics for most of the territory, but there is cyclicality with a period of ∼ 10 years.

In the process of warming, the atmosphere of Western Siberia gets warmer and wetter due to local sources of moisture. This is accompanied with amplification of convection processes in the warm seasons and increasing frequency of extreme weather phenomena. Trends in atmospheric instability and their causes on a territory located in the Ob-Irtysh interfluve and limited by 50–64 °N, 60–95 °E, including the Vasyugan Swamp, are analyzed. The swamp boundaries distinctly marked on temperature maps in the last decade indicate changes in the thermal radiation of the swamp surface. These changes in heterogeneity of heating and heat exchange are reflected in changes in atmospheric instability as well. The greatest changes in the atmospheric temperature mode have been observed in the Great Vasyugan Swamp.

Improving the identification accuracy of spatial distribution of hazardous convective phenomena has relevant meaning for territories are not covered by lightning detection systems. We perform comparison on set of instances of registered lightning discharges by a Boltek single-point lightning detector with spatial instability fields. To determine the areas of atmospheric instability over the southeast of Western Siberia, Total Totals and K-index have been used. Values for the indices were calculated from balloon sounding data and ERA5 reanalysis. The results demonstrate an acceptable spatial agreement between the fields with high instability indices according to ERA5 reanalysis data and actual positions of thunderstorm cells. A validation of ERA5 indices values with upper-air data showed that a smaller consistency error correspond to Total Totals index. Therefore, to predict the spatial position of convective clouds producing thunderstorms over the southeast of Western Siberia, it is promising to use Total Totals index, which is calculated using either aerological measurements or satellite remote sensing data.

Current climate changes in Russia are attended by the increase in frequency of dangerous weather events. This chapter researches long-term variations of the dangerous weather's events on Western Siberia and to reveal general regularity, which can be associated with forest fires. The researches have been carried out for the territories of southeast of Western Siberia. The duration of the fire season increases due to climate change. This is due both to the earlier snowfall and the onset of the phenological spring, and to the increase in the duration of the thunderstorm period. Thunderstorms in Siberia are a much more frequent cause of forest fires (28%) than in other territories. Wildfire frequency is correlated with air temperature and drought anomalies.

Due to the fact that the recent decades have become the warmest in the history of meteorological observations for the territory of Northern Eurasia, it is relevant to assess the long-term variability of the convective potential of the atmosphere in changing climate. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the characteristics of atmospheric instability and the frequency of occurrence of convective hazards such as thunderstorm and hail in Western Siberia are analyzed. The northward displacement of the boundaries of active convection estimated by the temperature and humidity parameters of the atmosphere has been registered in the recent decade. The duration of the thunderstorm season and the number of days with a thunderstorm per year increased, as well as the number of days with durable hail and large hail. The height of cumulonimbus clouds generated by vast thunderstorm cells is determined.

Западно-Сибирское управление по гидрометеорологии и мониторингу окружающей среды, РФ, 630099, Новосибирск, ул.Советская, 30Реферат.Одним из эффектов современного глобального потепления является изменение частоты и/или интенсивности внетропических циклонов.Западная Сибирь является территорией активной циклонической деятельности.Одной из особенностей региона является повышенный циклогенез в междуречье Обь-Иртыш (50-64°с.ш., 60-90°в.д.), в котором расположен уникальный природный объект -Большое Васюганское Болото (БВБ).Над этой территорией образуется около 20% всех циклонов, определяющих погоду региона.В работе представлены особенности пространственного расположения циклонов, образовавшихся над территорией Западной Сибири и совокупность их характеристик за период 1976-2017 гг

The warming for the Siberian territory has more rapid growth, than for Northern Hemisphere, in general. The purpose of the work is the description of characteristics of a snow cover for the south-east territory of the Western Siberia, which is great importance for many branches of the economy of Siberia. Date of appearance of snow cover, duration of a steady snow cover, thickness were analyzed in present research. The presented results are: the increase in duration of the presence the snow cover is revealed. The reason is the increase in amount of precipitation during the winter period.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of climate determining snow accumulation at the motor roads of Tomsk region in 1966-2017 are analyzed in the study.Results of the analysis of snow cover, wind and snowstorm conditions are presented.A certain increase in snow-cover depth is found in the south of Tomsk Region, while decrease is detected in the northern part.Both number of days with snowstorm and average duration of snowstorms have decreases due to reduction in the wind speed.

It is important to study cyclone formation and its further development in various fields, and cyclone energy is of special interest. This paper presents an analysis of energy characteristics of the atmosphere in days of local cyclogenesis over Western Siberia in 2016–2017. The following types of energy important for synoptic-scale atmospheric processes are calculated: 1) kinetic energy of horizontal motion; 2) potential energy; 3) internal energy; and 4) total potential energy. The results can be used to develop software and algorithmic support for the assessment of the probabilities of local cyclogenesis and possible emergence of hazardous weather phenomena in the West-Siberian territory.

Aim. To evaluate the specifics and dynamics of acute coronary pathology in the period of the year with anomaly hot weather.Material and methods. The study is based upon integration of clinical and epidemiological data from the “Registry of acute myocardial infarction” with meteorological data by Tomsk city for last 25 years. Taken the weather report data, summer months of 2012 were taken for further assessment on myocardial infarction (MI) course in extreme weather heat. Into the study, all patients included that had MI in summer of 2012 and registered in the “Acute MI Registry” (n=241). Comparison group consisted of MI patients in the 2010 summer (n=198).Results. The part of females increased, as of senile and older age persons, among the cohort of MI patients during the heat. The increase of the number found, of atypical acute coronary pathology course at extreme weather conditions. In 2012, MI developed more frequently in those drunk or at the next day, comparing to 2010. All-cause mortality among all MI patients was registered in several days of the heat wave beginning. During anomaly hot period mortality rate was comparable with the time frames of similar mean temperatures, and after the end of the heat wave, mortality tended to decline, mostly by reduction of sudden cardiac deaths.Conclusion. Adverse tendencies in mortality and morbidity of MI are being registered in several days before the onset of anomalous heat. Taken that on-time healthcare influence is depended on the correctness of weather forecast, it is impossible to perform situational prevention events in response to the onset of extreme weather conditions, which demands for the long-term type organizational activities. Development of MI in alcohol intoxication or after this, as the high number of atypical clinical forms of MI demands for the improvement of information in general population.

The spatial distribution of the thunderstorm activity was obtained for the territory of Western Siberia. In the paper three characteristics are considered. They are density of lightning discharges to the ground, the average number of days with a thunderstorm and the average duration of thunderstorms in hours. The observations of the network of 52 weather station and satellite information on the number of lightning discharges are used for the mapping thunderstorm activity characteristics. The obtained maps are qualitatively compared with each other and with the results of other studies.

The peculiarities of the development of strong convection in the atmosphere of Western Siberia, Gorny Altay and the Far East were studied on grounds of some characteristics. First of all, it is dynamics of parameters describing temperature stratification of the atmosphere up to the height of 5 km. The integrated characteristics, which, in addition to temperature stratification, include the estimation of humidity of different atmospheric layers, make up the second group. The third group of characteristics is indices evaluating the energy of convective potential of atmosphere. The forth group comprises indices describing vertical and horizontal flows in the atmosphere. The threshold values of some indices at which the thunderstorms are formed are defined.