Industrial distant-water fishing (DWF) fleets increasingly operate within the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of developing coastal states, raising critical concerns about ecological impacts, governance capacity, competition, and distributional equity. Yet assessments of DWF impacts frequently rely on aggregate catch metrics, potentially underestimating scale-dependent ecological pressure and institutional vulnerability. Here we develop a two-stage threat framework that integrates reconstructed catch data with a standardized Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing Index to evaluate DWF-related risk across Southeast Asia. While DWF fleets account for 11% of Southeast Asia’s total reconstructed catch, they concentrate over 70% of landings across five commercially vital taxa and directly compete for 18 species that domestic fleets also rely upon. Composite exposure–governance scores identify Indonesia and the Philippines as being at the highest-risk of threat from DWF, demonstrating that institutional vulnerability can significantly amplify the impact of moderate fishing pressure. Consequently, DWF impacts at the regional scale are highly uneven, remaining moderate in the aggregate but becoming ecologically concentrated and institutionally magnified within governance-constrained EEZs. These findings highlight the importance of integrating species-level ecological overlap with governance capacity when assessing the sustainability of industrial fishing, and underscore the need for transparent access agreements, strengthened monitoring systems, and coordinated regional oversight to reduce sustainability risks.

The growing presence of Distant Water Fishing (DWF) fleets has intensified competition for marine resources, particularly where domestic fisheries operate under weak governance. This study examines the interaction between DWF and domestic fleets in the Central Southwestern Atlantic Ocean using 15 years (2001–2016) of tuna fishery data from the Sea Around Us database. Key findings show that DWF fleets are more efficient, with higher catch per unit of effort (CPUE), and have increasingly encroached into the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and even the Territorial Seas of coastal nations, traditionally reserved for small-scale fishers. From 2012 to 2016, domestic fleets consistently showed lower fishing effort and received lower tuna prices than DWF fleets. The growing presence of DWF nearshore pressures domestic fleets to seek subsidies to remain viable. The study underscores the need for stronger national and global regulatory frameworks to protect developing nations’ fisheries and ensure equitable, sustainable ocean resource use.

The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio-economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio-economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio-cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic-demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a "plug-in-model" framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social-ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020 was a reminder of society’s vulnerability in the face of natural upheavals, leading to widespread unemployment and increased poverty. Simultaneously, human activities have precipitated large-scale environmental degradation and catastrophic climate change. Here, we conduct a global-scale, 186-country analysis examining the potential impact of basic income (BI) as a two-pronged solution to both sustainability and social resilience. We reveal BI’s potential to bolster economies, particularly in times of crisis. To lower the huge barrier imposed by implementation costs, we suggest a diverse array of strategies aimed at financing BI, strategically designed to concurrently alleviate economic insecurity while fostering nature conservation. We suggest that BI implementation is feasible and could be a potent tool in addressing the twin challenges of decreasing worldwide poverty while reducing environmental degradation—a nexus that arguably constitutes the paramount global challenge of our times.

Global pollution has exacerbated accumulation of toxicants like methylmercury (MeHg) in seafood. Human exposure to MeHg has been associated with long-term neurodevelopmental delays and impaired cardiovascular health, while many micronutrients in seafood are beneficial to health. The largest MeHg exposure source for many general populations originates from marine fish that are harvested from the global ocean and sold in the commercial seafood market. Here, we use high-resolution catch data for global fisheries and an empirically constrained spatial model for seafood MeHg to examine the spatial origins and magnitudes of MeHg extracted from the ocean. Results suggest that tropical and subtropical fisheries account for >70% of the MeHg extracted from the ocean because they are the major fishing grounds for large pelagic fishes and the natural biogeochemistry in this region facilitates seawater MeHg production. Compounding this issue, micronutrients (selenium and omega-3 fatty acids) are lowest in seafood harvested from warm, low-latitude regions and may be further depleted by future ocean warming. Our results imply that extensive harvests of large pelagic species by industrial fisheries, particularly in the tropics, drive global public health concerns related to MeHg exposure. We estimate that 84 to 99% of subsistence fishing entities globally likely exceed MeHg exposure thresholds based on typical rates of subsistence fish consumption. Results highlight the need for both stringent controls on global pollution and better accounting for human nutrition in fishing choices.

The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems are causing cascading impacts on livelihood, food security, and culture through fisheries. Such impacts interact and exacerbate the effects of overfishing on marine social-ecological systems, complicating the rebuilding of ecosystems to achieve desirable and sustainable ocean futures. Developing effective pathways for ecosystem rebuilding requires consideration of the co-benefits and trade-offs between ecological and social dimensions and between fishing sectors. However, the effects of intensifying climate change on such co-benefits or trade-offs are yet to be well understood, particularly in regions where ecosystem rebuilding is urgently needed. We applied a numerical optimization routine to define the scope for improvement toward the Pareto-frontier for ecological robustness and economic benefits of the northern South China Sea (NSCS) and the East China Sea (ECS) ecosystems. These two ecosystems were used to represent over-exploited low- and mid-latitude systems, respectively, and the optimization aimed to improve their status through fisheries management. We find that the ECS ecosystem has the possibility of increasing the economic benefits generated by the fisheries it supports under climate change by 2050 while increasing the uncertainty of achieving biodiversity objectives. Nevertheless, climate change is projected to reduce the scope to restore ecosystem structures and the potential economic benefits in the NSCS ecosystem. This study highlights the contrasting impacts of climate change on the co-benefits/trade-offs in ecosystem rebuilding and the benefits obtainable by different fishing sectors even in neighboring ecosystems. We conclude that consideration at the nexus of climate-biodiversity-fisheries is a key to developing effective ecosystem rebuilding plan.

Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already highly dependent on seafood-derived nutrients. At 4 oC of warming, nutrient availability is projected to decline by ~30% by 2100 in low income countries, while at 1.5-2.0 oC warming, decreases are projected to be ~10%. We demonstrate the importance of effective mitigation to support nutritional security of vulnerable nations and global health equity.

Climate-induced projected range shifts of exploited species would lead to a redistribution of stocks. Evaluating the combined ecological and socio-economic consequences of projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries due to climate change has remained largely unexplored. This study aims to identify the most affected stocks by climate change and more vulnerable countries in the region. Thus, we calculated the species specific sensitivity per country for 17 harvested species of significant importance. Then, we evaluated the vulnerability index for Mediterranean countries. Results show that temperate-cold species, i.e., Sprattus sprattus and Solea solea appear the most sensitive species. In contrast, temperate-warm species like the bogue showed the lowest sensitivity. Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya are the most vulnerable countries due to their comparatively high exposure to global warming and low adaptive capacity. At the same time, Slovenia, France, and Croatia have the lowest vulnerability because of their low exposure and sensitivity and remarkably high adaptive capacity. The southern Mediterranean countries would be the most vulnerable to climate-induced effects on marine fisheries. The region seriously needs adequate and adopted on-time adaptation and mitigation policies to lessen potential risks to harvested species and stocks and guarantee the contribution of fisheries to the economy and food security in the long-term.

Despite a tremendous growth and the huge commercial size at present, the Chinese bay scallop aquaculture is quite data-poor, which induces a series of vacuum, inefficiency, and mismatch in management and heavily impedes its transformation and upgrading. Here, we conduct the value chain analysis on it using an innovative approach that performs quantitative evaluations from micro-perspective to present the more detailed picture without relying on official statistics. We find that one parent scallop costs 0.14 USD and is given a value increase of 84.94 USD, equivalent to over 600 times higher than its initial value, by four production nodes of the value chain. There is no obvious regularity reflected in value increase among nodes due to the complexity conspired by variable increment rates and growing cardinal numbers, but a downward trend of profitability along the value chain looms. We recognize that it is not an individual case and closely related to high transaction costs, suggesting that, enhancing the horizontal integration of businesses in a certain node can not make the aquaculture production more efficient, while there remains a need for the vertical integration of different nodes to improve management effectiveness.

The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over‐exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio‐economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21st century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid‐century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21st century. More than 25% of mariculture‐producing nations are projected to lose 40%–90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5‐8.5 by mid‐century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non‐feed‐based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate‐resilient mariculture development.

Previous studies have shown that multiple-environmental stressors are expected to have significant and geographically differential impacts on the health and abundance of marine species. In this paper, we analyze the combined impacts of ocean warming, overfishing and mercury pollution in European waters by projecting the impacts of climatic and non-climate drivers on marine species in European waters. Our findings suggest that the impacts vary widely depending on different species and their mean temperature tolerance (MTT). We find for instance, that more than 5 temperate benthopelagic species including, bobtail squids (Sepiida) frogfishes (Lophius) great Atlantic scallop (Pecten maximus) red mullet (Mullus barbatus barbatus) and common octopus (Octopus vulgaris) are affected (i.e., weakens their resilience to climate change) by the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) under RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2100. Mercury contamination was estimated to increase in some species (e.g., ∼50% in swordfish), exceeding mercury consumption guideline thresholds (>1 mg/kg). This negative impact may limit the capacity of fisheries and marine ecosystem to respond to the current climate induced pollution sensitivity. An implication of our study is that the international community should strengthen a global ban on mercury emissions under the mandate of the Minamata Convention, comparable to the United Nations framework for persistent organic pollutant emission sources. Ongoing global efforts aimed at minimizing carbon footprint and mercury emissions need to be enhanced in concert with a reduction in fishing intensity to maintain effective conservation measures that promote increased resilience of fisheries to climate change and other stressors.

Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.

Marine fisheries in African waters contribute substantially to food security and local economies in African coastal nations. Recently, there are growing concerns about the sustainability of living marine resources in these countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZs) due to increased risks from climate change, pollution and potential over-exploitation of fisheries resources by non-African (foreign) countries. To effectively manage fishing activities and sustain marine resources in African waters, we need useful tools for characterizing the fishing activities in African waters. Here, we assess the utility of the Automatic Identification System (AIS) derived data for describing the spatial characteristics of African and foreign industrial fishing activities within the EEZs of African coastal nations. The results show that the AIS-derived spatial pattern of industrial fishing activities in African waters is consistent with that of industrial catches derived from the Sea Around Us database. Across African EEZs, the spatial correlations between primary productivity and fishing effort highly vary by gear types, which emphasizes the importance of investigating specific fishing strategies when studying the effects of bottom-up drivers on fishing effort. We find an EEZ-specific spatial pattern for fishing efforts across African waters and identify some socioeconomic, political and geographic factors that likely affect the decision of fleets to fish in specific African EEZs. We conclude that AIS-derived fishing data can be a useful complementary tool for characterizing the spatial pattern of industrial fishing efforts in African waters.

Following a brief review of their biology, this contribution is an attempt to provide a global overview of the catches of mesopelagic fishes (of which 2.68 million tonnes were officially reported to the FAO) throughout the world ocean from 1950 to 2018, to serve as a baseline to a future development of these fisheries. The overview is based on a thorough scanning of the literature dealing with commercial or experimental fisheries for mesopelagics and their catches, and/or the mesopelagic bycatch of other fisheries. All commercial (industrial and artisanal) fisheries for mesopelagic fishes were included, as well as experimental fisheries of which we were aware, while catches performed only to obtain scientific samples were omitted. The processes of generating bycatch and causing discards are discussed, with emphasis on Russian fisheries. From peer-reviewed and gray literature, we lifted information on mesopelagic fisheries and assembled it into one document, which we then summarized into two text tables with catch data, one by country/region, the other by species or species groups.

Coral reefs worldwide are facing impacts from climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution. The cumulative effect of these impacts on global capacity of coral reefs to provide ecosystem services is unknown. Here, we evaluate global changes in extent of coral reef habitat, coral reef fishery catches and effort, Indigenous consumption of coral reef fishes, and coral-reef-associated biodiversity. Global coverage of living coral has declined by half since the 1950s. Catches of coral-reef-associated fishes peaked in 2002 and are in decline despite increasing fishing effort, and catch-per-unit effort has decreased by 60% since 1950. At least 63% of coral-reef-associated biodiversity has declined with loss of coral extent. With projected continued degradation of coral reefs and associated loss of biodiversity and fisheries catches, the well-being and sustainable coastal development of human communities that depend on coral reef ecosystem services are threatened.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key to averting continued loss of species and ecosystem services in our oceans, but concerns around economic trade-offs hamper progress. Here we provide optimized planning scenarios for global MPA networks that secure species habitat while minimizing impacts on fisheries revenues. We found that MPA coverage requirements differ vastly among nations, and that two-thirds of nations benefit economically from a collaborative approach. Immediate global protection of marine biodiversity habitat comes with losses of ~19% of total fisheries revenues, but international cooperation in concert with high seas protection improves economic losses for most countries, safeguards all species, and could save ~5B USD annually worldwide. Nations and fishery economies both share benefits from a coordinated approach to conserving marine biodiversity, with direct relevance to current international policies.

Aquatic foods from marine and freshwater systems are critical to the nutrition, health, livelihoods, economies and cultures of billions of people worldwide, but climate-related hazards may compromise their ability to provide these benefits. Here, we estimate national-level aquatic food system climate risk using an integrative food systems approach that connects climate hazards impacting marine and freshwater capture fisheries and aquaculture to their contributions to sustainable food system outcomes. We show that without mitigation, climate hazards pose high risks to nutritional, social, economic and environmental outcomes worldwide—especially for wild-capture fisheries in Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Small Island Developing States. For countries projected to experience compound climate risks, reducing societal vulnerabilities can lower climate risk by margins similar to meeting Paris Agreement mitigation targets. System-level interventions addressing dimensions such as governance, gender equity and poverty are needed to enhance aquatic and terrestrial food system resilience and provide investments with large co-benefits towards meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.

The impacts of banning wild spat collection are crucial for the future development of the Zhikong scallop fishery. Failure to the quantitative analysis of economic impacts obstructs the understanding of policy performance. Using key parameters extracted from the data and information through field research, we estimate the financial losses in spat collection, mariculture, and processing sectors. Our results show that the local ban should spark a chain reaction on the national Zhikong scallop fishery and potentially cause substantial economic consequences. The decreasing profitability and growing negative externalities of traditional mariculture are the main reasons for the local government to overhaul its marine development strategy. These findings have implications for some problems in the current marine management system or, from a more positive perspective, the crisis of the Zhikong scallop fishery providing China an opportunity to accelerate reforms for sustainable mariculture.

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a ‘blue economy’—socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries 1 , 2 . However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity—not just resource availability—are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors 1 , 3 , 4 . Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.

Effective fisheries management is necessary for the long-term sustainability of fisheries and the economic benefits that they provide, but focusing only on ecological sustainability risks disregarding ultimate goals related to well-being that must be achieved through broader social policy. An analysis of global landings data shows that average fishing wages in 36%-67% of countries, home to 69%-95% of fishers worldwide, are likely below their nationally determined minimum living wage (which accounts for costs of food, shelter, clothing, health and education). Furthermore, even if all fisheries in every country were perfectly managed to achieve their Maximum Sustainable Yield, a common sustainability target, average incomes of fishers in up to 49 countries-70% of fishers worldwide-would still not meet minimum living wages. Access to decent work and livelihoods are fundamental human rights, including for all fisherfolk around the world, and strategies to support their well-being must therefore integrate a much wider set of perspectives, disciplines and institutions. Key first steps for fisheries researchers are to more fully recognize and estimate fisheries benefits to households-including income from women and/or alternative employment, unreported landings, or shadow values of subsistence catch-and to help identify and learn from economic equity outcomes in rebuilt fisheries around the world.