近年来,中国生育水平持续走低,提高育龄女性的生育意愿对实现适度生育水平、促进人口长期均衡发展意义重大.文章基于深度媒介化的背景,融合了培养理论与计划行为理论以探究主动寻求信息和偶然接触信息两种信息获取模式对育龄女性生育意愿的影响,并比较了相应影响在未婚未育与已婚未育群体间的差异.结果显示,信息获取对生育意愿的"培养"并非简单的线性过程,而是经由中介机制.主动寻求信息对已婚女性的影响更大,与之相比,偶然接触信息看似成本较低且缺乏动机,实则对两个群体均产生了"强效应".个体生育态度和感知外部行为控制在主动寻求信息与已婚女性生育意愿之间起到中介作用;就偶然接触信息对生育意愿的影响而言,个体生育态度和社会规范感知具有重要中介作用,且在未婚和已婚女性中均得到证实.感知内部行为控制的中介效应对未婚女性更为显著,而感知外部行为控制的中介效应则对已婚女性显著.基于实证结论,文章对新闻媒体进行生育相关的议程设置以及有关部门完善生育友好政策提出建议.
Along with the rapid development of information and communication technology（ICT）, mobile internet is becoming increasingly popular in rural China, which brings about accelerating consumption transformations. Adopting a two-dimensional perspective embracing consumption structure and diversity, this study explores the impact of mobile internet use on the consumption of rural households using data from the China Household Finance Survey（CHFS）. An endogenous switching regression（ESR） model is built to estimate the effect. We find that the use of mobile internet significantly enhances the household consumption structure and consumption diversity. According to the ESR model estimates, the rural households not using mobile internet are expected to increase their share of development-and-enjoyment-type consumption by 0.03 provided that they use it, and the consumption diversity are expected to increase by 0.34. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of mobile internet use on the consumption upgrading is more significant for the rural households in the western region, and those with low income and low social capital. The conclusion still holds after a series of robust checks. The study highlights the importance of promoting digital rural construction and extending online consumption channels, so as to facilitate the rural household consumption upgrading and unleash its consumption potential.
Using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2012 to 2017, this paper examines the effects of digital economy on labor migration and the occupational allocation among migrant workers. The results suggest that the development of digital economy tends to attract labor migrants, and the occupational allocation in the destination depends largely on the feature of local digital economy. While the development of production digitization tends to attract migrant workers to technology-based occupations, the development of local life digitization increases the likelihood of migrant workers to work in service occupations, rather than production occupations. The development of digital economy is more likely to attract male, young and middle-aged, and highly-educated migrants. More specifically, the development of production digitalization is more likely to attract young and middle-aged, and high-educated migrants to technology-based occupations, and the life digitalization decreases the likelihood of young and middle-aged, and high-educated migrants to work in production occupations. Further analyses using data from the China Labor Force Dynamics Survey show that the development of digital economy helped to equalize the employment opportunity between migrants and urban citizens, but not for the wage or life happiness. This paper contends that it is necessary to strengthen digital skills cultivation in the labor force while promoting the development of digital economy, protect the employment equities of migrants, and promote high-quality full employment.
Using data from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey（CLASS） data in 2014, 2016, and 2018, this study examines the traits and dynamics of the elderly’s participation in volunteer services in China, and explores its impacts on the elderly’s well-being. The results indicate that the elderly people’s participation in volunteer activities can significantly improve their health, reduce the risk of depression, enhance social adaptability, and increase life satisfaction, thereby effectively improving their well-being. Mechanism analysis shows that the elderly people increase their role identification, skill, and social interaction through participating in volunteer services, and four channels are identified in the mechanisms which are in line with the role theory, activity theory, continuity theory, and social integration theory. Heterogeneity analysis results show that older people living in rural areas, with lower education, or not living with their children benefit more from volunteer participation, while gender and age do not make any significant difference. The conclusive remark is made on facilitating broader participation in volunteer services, so as to fully tap into the elderly’s knowledge, experience, and skills, or the so-called "silver-haired resources", and to promote active aging.
This study examines the impact of the digital technology on the employment income of migrant workers and its heterogeneity using data from the China Labor Force Dynamic Survey in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. The research shows that the development of the digital technology has significant positive impacts on the improvement of employment income and the welfare of migrant workers. The wage effect of digital technology is skill-biased, while no difference is observed for the effects in respect of migrant workers’ social and psychological capitals. Further tests on the subgroups using machine learning algorithms show that the increase in employment income is greater for the migrant workers with higher comprehensive endowments. Digital technology affects the employment income and welfare of migrant workers through channels such as the rationalization of industrial structure, the advancement of industrial structure, and the digital transformation of the industry. This study suggests that the government should further deepen the integration of digital technology in traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and improve the income of migrant workers. At the same time, it should focus on improving the human capital of socioeconomically disadvantaged migrant workers to solve the problem of disparate income distribution.
Viewing from the perspective of demographic dividend transformation, this paper analyzes the impact of digital economy on labor productivity convergence using China’s inter-provincial panel data. We find that:（1） The development of digital economy in the study period accelerates the growth of labor productivity and promotes its convergence.（2） The strengthening effect of digital economy on labor productivity convergence is driven mainly by industrial digitalization and its influence on labor productivity in service industry.（3） In terms of its implication on labor employment, digital economy has both employment creation effect and employment substitution effect, which work together to optimize labor employment structure and promote regional labor productivity convergence.（4） Along with the demographic dividend declining, the digital economy shows a significant single threshold effect on labor productivity convergence. Once the threshold is passed, the strengthening effect of digital economy in enabling labor productivity convergence increases marginally, which indicates that the development of digital economy can eliminate the potential negative impact of declining demographic dividend on the labor productivity convergence. The paper concludes that, in view of the declining demographic dividend, the digital economy development is promising to accelerate labor productivity convergence and push regional labor productivity towards its balanced growth path. And this will help to promote a coordinated high-quality interregional development.
Based on the experimental design of conjoint analysis in the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey, this study explores fertility norms by estimating the causal effects of social determinants on fertility potential among Chinese people aged between 18 and 50 years old. The heterogeneous effects of the determinants are also estimated. The results reveal the variability of fertility potential across contexts. Economic resources significantly increase fertility potential, implying that fertility takes a stronger connotation of consumption in China. Fertility potential is also significantly increased by the availability of childcare resources. In terms of stimulating the second-child and third-child fertility potential, childcare provided by parents and parents-in-law is equivalent to a 125 and 62.9 thousand yuan increase in annual household income. The stimulating effect of both low-cost public and private childcare services on the second-child fertility potential is equivalent to an increase in annual household income of 138.6 thousand yuan.In contrast, public childcare is rated higher than private childcare in improving the third-child fertility potential, with low-cost public and private childcare services equivalent to an increase in annual household income of 88.7 and 66.1thousand yuan, respectively. In addition, the preferences for economic resources, family childcare, and market childcare differed slightly by gender, education level, and fertility intention. However, son preference has no significant effect on fertility potential, demonstrating the weakened traditional fertility norm in China. In light of China’s low fertility today, our study suggests that childbearing will become more diversified by socioeconomic status. Future fertility-supportive policies need to focus more on improving economic and market childcare resources.
Health promotion for children from low-income families is a common concern of the government, society and academia. This paper examines the effect of health literacy promotion demonstration county construction on the health status of children in low-income families using a Time-varying Difference-in-Differences model based on data from six waves of the CFPS Survey from 2010 to 2020. Also, the impact mechanisms are examined. The results showed that the construction of health literacy promotion demonstration counties can effectively promote the growth and development of children from low-income families and significantly reduce the problem of severe low weight.Health literacy promotion demonstration counties work through three main channels: changing health attitude, increasing preventive health service utilization, and promoting health behaviors. Interventions from the health literacy dimension are not only beneficial to improve health benefits, but also to promote health equity. Promoting the early health development of children from low-income families by improving health literacy can achieve long-term sustainable improvement at a low cost and realize the development goal of“Healthy China”.
人才是各地推动区域经济发展、提升综合竞争力的重要支撑,各地政府试图通过制定各种形式的人才政策吸引并留住人才.不过,关于人才政策实际效能的研究较为匮乏.文章利用"58同城"的个人简历数据,以2010～2019年长三角城市群26个城市的人才流动为案例,分析了长三角城市群人才流动的网络结构和空间格局,着重探讨人才政策对人才跨区域流动的影响,以及在不同经济发展水平和收入水平下人才政策的边际效应.研究结果表明:(1)长三角城市群城际人才流动十分频繁,经济基础较好、工资收入高、产业结构和市场环境较好的城市是人才流动的辐射聚合高地;(2)长三角城市群的人才流动围绕上海、南京、苏州、杭州、合肥形成"Z"字形的空间格局,人才流向由大城市间流动演变为大城市间流动和邻近城市间流动并重的局面;(3)人才政策能够很好地吸引人才流入本地,但只有当区域经济发展水平和收入水平较高时,人才政策才会发挥作用.当经济发展水平和收入水平较低时,人才政策对人才流入影响不显著.文章据此提出了政策建议,为相关政府部门决策提供参考.
文章基于中国劳动力动态调查数据,探究了数字经济对劳动者职业流动及其收入回报的影响和作用机制.研究发现,数字经济不仅提高了劳动者的职业流动概率,还有效提升了职业流动后的收入回报.异质性分析结果显示,数字经济对女性、农村户籍和低学历劳动者的职业流动及其收入回报的影响更加显著.进一步分析结果表明,数字经济主要通过拓宽就业信息获取渠道、促进灵活就业和推动产业结构服务化转型三个途径,影响劳动者职业流动及其收入回报.文章以职业动态转换为切入点,拓展了数字经济对劳动就业影响的研究视角,为数字经济背景下畅通职业流动渠道,推动劳动力转岗提质就业提供了理论依据.
在人口老龄化程度日益加深的背景下,准确把握健康老龄化服务效能对于优化服务体系、实现健康老龄化目标具有重要意义.文章运用德尔菲法,基于"结构—过程—结果"的三维评价模型遴选了 3个一级指标、10个二级指标、55个三级指标以衡量健康老龄化服务效能,并据此开展指标评价和实证分析.结果表明:中国健康老龄化服务效能整体偏低,在服务结构、服务过程和服务产出3个子系统中,服务结构(服务资源配置或服务能力)属于短板;健康老龄化服务效能水平存在明显的省际差异,呈现东高、西低、中部塌陷的空间分布格局.文章建议,提升中国健康老龄化服务效能要以优化服务结构为重心,并立足省际差异,在促进各省补齐短板的同时,加大对中西部地区的服务资源投入和服务过程管理,推动各省健康老龄化服务均衡发展.
文章采用队列分析视角,利用七普资料重构中国城乡女性出生队列的初婚进度.研究结果表明:(1)列克西斯平面图可以较为清晰地展现中国女性初婚变动历程中年龄、时期、队列3个维度的特征.从时期效应看,2010年以来女性初婚风险率快速下降、初婚年龄不断推迟,农村女性因起步晚而变动更快;从队列效应看,1986年以后出生的年轻队列初婚风险率整体降低,终身曾婚比例可能与较早队列存在较大差异.(2)七普数据表明2019年城乡女性初婚率大幅降低,调查误差不足以解释这一变动,婚姻市场性别失衡、女性教育提升及性别观念改变可能造成女性初婚率和终身曾婚比例的真实下降.(3)利用初婚年龄分布参数模型进行的外推预测结果表明,1980年之后出生队列终身未婚比例将较快上升,到1990年队列预计达到4.6％～9.0％;其中城市女性更高,预计达到4.5％～13.8％;乡村女性异质性更强,社会压力很难扩散而趋弱,终身未婚比例在1985年之后队列上升很快,将超过镇女性.较晚队列晚婚和不婚的趋势难以逆转,将深刻影响生育水平和婚姻家庭.
文章利用2011、2014和2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据(CLHLS),实证检验社区照料服务可及性对城市老年人生活满意度的影响.研究发现:(1)社区照料服务可及性显著提升了老年人生活满意度评价为"很好"和"好"的概率,降低了"一般"和"不好、很不好"的概率.(2)异质性检验结果表明,社区照料服务可及性对于自我健康感知较差、对非家庭成员有社会依赖、仅与子女同住或与配偶及子女共同居住的老年人生活满意度提升效果更显著.(3)对于目前尚无照料需求的老人,社区照料服务可及性减轻了其焦虑程度,进而提高了生活满意度;对于有实际照料需求的老人,在家庭照料未满足时社区照料服务可及性能够显著提升其生活满意度.文章认为,应充分认识社区照料服务对老年人幸福晚年的价值和作用,提供全方位的社区照料服务,实现老有所护、老有所安,提升老年群体服务获得感、照料满足感和生活幸福感.
文章通过构建家庭财务脆弱性指标,借助健康状态转移概率、预期余寿与失能护理成本测算结果,估计不同财务脆弱性家庭老年护理的保障缺口,并模拟长期护理保险制度扩面的政策效果.测算结果显示,中国中度或重度失能家庭会面临居家护理与机构护理的保障缺口,长期护理保险可以有效控制居家护理模式下家庭失能风险敞口,但无法完全弥合机构护理保障缺口,因此居家护理保障模式可能是大部分失能家庭的较优选择.长期护理保险有助于缩小家庭居家护理保障缺口的城乡差距,对同时负担多位失能父母居家护理支出的家庭予以有效保障.据此,文章建议将长期护理保险的保障范围扩大至中度失能老人,建立健全统筹城乡、覆盖全民的长期护理保险制度,并将家庭财务脆弱性纳入制度考量范围,构建涵盖社会救助、基本长期护理保险与商业长期护理保险的多层次长期护理保障体系.
减税降费是帮助企业纾困减负、稳岗促就业的重要举措,也是落实就业优先战略、促进更高质量更充分就业的重要措施.文章建立企业用工形式决策模型,基于2015年中国小微企业调查(CMES)数据,考察了养老保险费率对小微企业用工形式的影响.研究发现,法定养老保险费率越高,小微企业中非正式员工雇佣占比越高.在正式员工工资较高、正式员工与非正式员工工资差距较大、私营及融资约束程度较高的企业中,上述效应更为明显,而在高新技术企业和园区企业中则相对较弱.机制分析表明,养老保险费使得企业对正式员工的缴费负担上升更多、工资转嫁幅度较低,因而企业选择更多雇用非正式员工,并倾向于雇用60岁以上老年人作为非正式员工.进一步分析表明,养老保险费率对用工结构调整的影响体现在性别、健康、技术和管理等多个维度,男性、残疾员工、专业技术人员和管理人员离职风险明显更低.文章表明,下调养老保险费率、降低企业融资成本,有利于促进更高质量、更充分、更稳定的就业,实现经济高质量发展.
文章通过引入灰色预测GM(1,1)模型改进Double-Gap方法对寿命差距进行建模,并将预测结果与传统Double-Gap方法、Lee-Carter模型和贝叶斯分层模型进行比较,以探寻适合中国人口预期寿命预测的科学方法.研究结果表明:(1)从建模原理看,Double-Gap方法不仅能在建模中将中国人口预期寿命与人类最优表现预期寿命进行关联,还能避免Lee-Carter模型等间接预测法中死亡模式固定的缺陷,同时方法客观、可操作性较强.(2)从模型的拟合与短期预测效果看,改进Double-Gap方法具有较小的平均绝对百分误差,并能有效弥补Lee-Carter模型在人口预期寿命预测中出现的过拟合问题.(3)从模型长期预测效果看,Lee-Carter模型和贝叶斯分层模型在预测中国人口预期寿命时较为保守,而Double-Gap方法预测的中国人口预期寿命能保持与最优表现预期寿命之间的合理变动趋势,并且改进D-G方法预测的出生人口平均预期寿命增长趋势的斜率值小于传统D-G方法,能够更好地反映出人口死亡率降低到一定程度后寿命增长减速的趋势.
2014年以来，中国实施了城乡居民基本养老保险一体化改革，促进了基本养老保障体系的城乡均等化，为增强人民群众的获得感、幸福感与安全感，实现物质文明和精神文明相协调的中国式现代化奠定了基础。文章利用2011～2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据，使用多期双重差分方法考察了城乡居民基本养老保险一体化改革对居民主观福利的影响。研究发现，城乡居民基本养老保险一体化改革显著改善了居民的主观福利水平，使其生活满意度提高了0.064，抑郁指数降低了0.420；而且该效应在女性、受教育程度较低、原新农保参保群体、已经在领取养老金的群体与东部地区居民中更为突出。渠道分析发现，改革主要通过提高养老金收入影响已在领取养老金群体的主观福利。为进一步完善城乡居保制度，文章建议健全缴费激励机制、逐步提高统筹层次、积极推动跨区域整合，缩小社会保障领域的三大差异。
在人口老龄化不断加深的背景下，研究居住安排对老年人生活质量的影响具有重要现实意义。文章使用2017～2018年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查（CLHLS）数据，实证检验了居住安排对老年人自评生活质量的影响。研究发现，相比于居住在养老机构的老年人，与家人同住的老年人自评生活质量更高，而独居老年人的自评生活质量没有明显差异。机构养老对少子女或无子女、高龄空巢的老年人积极意义更加明显。日常照料、精神慰藉和医疗服务可及性是提升老年人自评生活质量的三种重要的机制。其中，机构养老的短板是精神慰藉功能较弱，非机构居住的不足在于医疗服务可及性相对较差。对此，文章提出加强养老机构的精神慰藉服务建设、增加机构养老服务供给、注重关爱非机构居住老年人的政策建议。
文章基于2011~2019年中国省级面板数据,运用动态面板系统GMM模型分析学前教育经费投入对宏观人力资本的影响,并进行城乡异质性分析.研究表明:(1)学前教育财政投入对促进人力资本积累和人力资本收入贡献均发挥正向作用,学前教育家庭投入仅对提升人力资本收入贡献发挥正向作用;(2)4项学前教育财政经费使用均促进人力资本积累,但只有个人家庭补助支出和其他资本支出可以促进人力资本收入贡献;(3)农村学前教育财政投入具有促进人力资本积累和提高人力资本收入贡献的双重优势,但学前教育家庭投入抑制了人力资本积累;城市学前教育财政投入能够促进人力资本积累,家庭投入在促进人力资本积累的同时,可以提高人力资本收入贡献.为了提升中国人力资本发展的均衡性和总体水平,文章提出,政府应加大学前教育财政投入,特别是加大对农村地区的财政投入,同时还应优化学前教育经费使用结构.
