It is often claimed that intelligence successes are routine but invisible, while failures are public. This paper evaluates this claim by examining the accuracy and uniqueness of more than 250 current intelligence statements selected from declassified Presidents' Daily Briefs (PDB) (1964-1977). We assessed accuracy by comparing PDB statements with the historical record and uniqueness by comparing them with contemporaneous reporting in The New York Times. The results show that intelligence in the PDB was often accurate, particularly when addressing open, observable events such as elections or diplomatic summits. This finding supports arguments that collections and the resulting supply of information may play a major role in the accuracy of current intelligence. While most of the current intelligence reported in the PDB was also available in newspapers like the New York Times, the PDB often reported on it before the Times.
Faced with the scenario of terrorist cells from the Sahel threatening Europe, the EU promotes security projects that build intelligence relationships. The European project GAR-SI Sahel led by the Spanish Guardia Civil in collaboration with the French, Italian and Portuguese gendarmeries has created multidisciplinary police units in Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and Senegal in order to foster the intelligence capabilities of these countries. This article analyses and assesses, through a focus group discussion, the performance of the GAR-SI units and their contribution to regional security. It does so by elaborating a framework consisting of four levels with associated activities and competencies.
This article evaluates Ireland's place in Europe from an intelligence and defence perspective. Ireland is a relative puzzle in the European intelligence landscape: despite being a high-tech economy with large multinational corporations, Ireland's neutrality, combined with a fear of becoming embroiled in military alliances and intelligence operations, has led to a reluctance to improve or grow Ireland's intelligence capabilities and to contribute to European intelligence and, by extension, the defence of Europe. This goes against the needs of Europe today: the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused Europe to reevaluate and reengage with issues surrounding intelligence and defence on a scale not seen since the Cold War. Across Europe, there have been moves towards greater intelligence sharing due to transnational terrorism. This article investigates the role of trust and mistrust in intelligence collaboration concerning Ireland in the broader European context. How can trust in Ireland's role in intelligence be built, how is it lost, and how may it be repaired or regained? We further investigate how it may affect intelligence cooperation between Ireland, within the European Union, and between Ireland and the United Kingdom.
