尊敬的阿联酋外交国务部长萨耶赫阁下, 尊敬的阿拉伯国家联盟秘书处文化和文明对话司司长玛哈女士, 各位来宾、各位朋友, 上午好!很高兴同大家相聚在美丽的阿布扎比.首先,我谨代表中国外交部,对第十届中阿关系暨中阿文明对话研讨会召开表示热烈祝贺,对东道主阿联酋及阿盟秘书处的精心安排和热情接待表示衷心感谢,向远道而来的中阿双方友好人士表示崇高敬意.
The current intemational political and economic environment is being reshaped by the updated technological revolution,geopolitics,and restructuring of global value chain.The GCC countries are also profoundly influenced by the new international political and economic environment and the inherent'crescent curve'.From the perspective of the link of the value chain,the trade between China and GCC countries have shaped the economic basis of China-GCC countries cross-regional value chain cooperation,and the structural reshaping of global value chain has provided new opportunities for cross-regional value chain cooperation between China and GCC countries.From the perspective of regional economic development trends and structural changes,regional economic integration within the GCC countries has led to a rise in the size of the GCC economies.Mutual investment between China and GCC countries makes it possible for Chinese and GCC enterprises to be deeply connected to each other,and has formed cooperation and docking of cross-regional value chains,creating a new type of cross-regional global value chain in the new international political and economic structural changes.The in-depth China-GCC cross-regional cooperation is based on the global value chain system.It can not only provide opportunities for the GCC countries to develop on the path to realistic industrialization and modernization,but also injecting lasting momentum to the economic and social structures of the GCC countries.
After the September 11 attacks,faced with increasing cross-border threat of terrorism,the deterioration of its national image,the weakness of its own counter-terrorism capabilities and tense relations with its ally the United States,Saudi Arabia elevated counter-terrorism to a national strategic level.In terms of philosophy,the Saudi government upholds a comprehensive counter-terrorism approach of multi-domain integration,and takes multiple measures to implement a national counter-terrorism strategy and carry out intemational counter-terrorism cooperation.In terms of model,the Saudi government has established a hardness-with-softness counter-terrorism model that focuses on improving its capabilities of combating domestic terrorism,develops a twin-wing pattern of financial counter-terrorism and de-radicalization,thus in line with domestic and regional dynamics.In practice,the Saudi government has actively carried out international and regional counter-terrorism cooperation,signed,ratified or acceded to international and regional counter-terrorism conventions,improved institutional arrangements of financial counter-terrorism,and reduced the risk of religious extremism through education and de-radicalization projects.deradicalization.Saudi Arabia's counter-terrorism strategy has effectively cracked down on domestic terrorist forces,while there are also limitations such as mispositioning of objects and subjects,heavy instrumentalization and utilitarianism,and narrowness of scope of de-radicalization.
After the Iraq War of 2003,in an overall declining trend,the global strategic attention of the U.S.to Iraq began to shift to other countries in the region or beyond it.Iraq,however,as the first challenger of the U.S.in shaping its unipolar hegemony after the Cold War,its practical implications should not be underestimated over time.On the one hand,Iraq has been a testing ground for the U.S.to practice various means of containment and intervention after the Cold War.In the U.S.subsequent process to shape and maintain its unipolar hegemony,Iraq constitutes an important reference and source of experience for the U.S.to contain other countries.On the other hand,Iraq's diplomatic actions to break through the U.S.diplomatic blockade have formed a hedge against the formation of U.S.hegemony,which has profoundly affected the evolution of this process.Thus,Iraq from 1991 to 2003 actually constitutes a prism reflecting the U.S.process to impose its unipolar hegemony in the post-Cold War era from multiple dimensions,and has important implications for academics to deepen their understanding of U.S.hegemony and the evolution of the post-Cold War world order.
当前的世界正处在百年未遇之大变局阶段,人类社会在变,自然界也在变,世界体系、国际格局、国际政治经济秩序、文明秩序等等都在变.变化是客观事物发展规律,大变局则是指这种变化的程度、力度和速度,很大很强很快.世界各国现下都得站在战略高度、用历史发展眼光,把握时势,识别真伪,主动施策,应对驾驭,并藉此去化解挑战与危机,谋得和平与发展,从而造福各国人民.
The implementation of Japan's Middle East regional strategy demonstrates quasi-interregionalism,a type of interregionalism in which a nation interacts with regional organisations or groups inside a specific region.Based on existing inter-regionalism theory and the specific characteristics of Japan's relations with the Middle East,it is clear that Japan's Middle East regional strategy serves four main purposes:maintaining institutional checks and balances,establishing institutional frameworks,setting agendas,and promoting rule and norm dissemination.From a historical perspective,Japan's strategy towards the Middle East region began too late,and it officially began promoting the region until the 21st century.In the current era,Japan's Middle East strategy is gradually developing,reflecting the fundamental features of the'sovereign nationalization'model,the encouragement of'government-civilian partnership',and the reduction of the asymmetric structure of'utilitarianism'and'North-South cooperation'.The interpretation of the historical and current evolution of Japan's Middle East regional strategy from the perspective of quasi interregionalism is still a relatively new perspective,and its basic situation is worth paying attention to.
The Arab region is rich in oil and gas resources,and the economic development of many regional countries depends on oil and gas exports.Climate change has become an important issue of global concern,the transformation of energy supply towar"green"has brought huge challenges to the original economic development model of Arab countries.In the face of the pressure of international energy transition,Arab countries not only continue to tap the potential of oil and gas resources,but also actively implement the'carbon neutral'and'carbon reduction'goals by applying CCUS technology,improving the level of energy supply diversification,and implementing energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement actions.In addition,in the face of the challenges brought by the global energy transition to the original economic development model,Arab countries have taken deepening opening-up as an important pillar of economic transformation,thus further enhancing the interoperability with China's policy of promoting high-quality opening-up.The above-mentioned changes have also promoted the gradual transformation of China-Arab energy cooperation from mainly depended on oil and gas cooperation to driven by the two wheels of oil and gas,and'low-carbon'cooperation,as well as from mainly driven by trade and infrastructure cooperation to the direction of jointly promoted by trade,infrastructure and investment cooperation.However,the rise in global financing costs,fluctuations in international oil prices and the complexity of energy subsidy reform in Arab countries may adversely affect the multi-dimensional development of China-Arab energy cooperation.
Since its establishment in 1923,the parliamentary election system of the Republic of Türkiye has undergone an evolutionary development for almost a century.Specifically,it reflects the development from two-degree elections during the one-party period,to single-degree elections during the multi-party period,and from list-based majority system to proportional representation system.The parliamentary threshold and the allocation of seats based on the D'Hondt law have been the main features of Turkish parliamentary electoral system since the 21st century.Türkiye's transition from parliamentary system to presidential system,following the constitutional referendum of 2017,has been an important historical opportunity for the development of the country's electoral system.One of the new changes brought about by this is the birth of the electoral alliance mechanism.Historically,Turkish political parties have also cooperated in elections,but most of them ended in failure.With the introduction and implementation of'7102 Sayili Kanun',electoral alliance gained legal status for the first time.The major party alliances that emerged from this process represent a new form of party cooperation in Türkiye.Since the establishment of the presidential system,electoral alliance,as an important mechanism of the Turkish electoral system,have not only played an important role in Türkiye's general elections,but have also had a profound impact on Türkiye's political development today.
军队在共和国时代的埃及国内政治中占有重要地位且埃及历任总统大多拥有军队服役背景,但埃及历届总统与军队之间的关系并非完全可靠.与前两任总统纳赛尔和萨达特任期内部分处于战争状态不同,埃及在穆巴拉克时期已经进入相对和平的时代,政府控制军队的策略也随之发生变化.本文认为,防政变策略是执政者追求稳定军政关系的重要手段,主要分为融合型和隔离型两类,且该策略在社会危机期间对维护军队忠诚度的效果存在局限性.穆巴拉克执政时期主要采用了融合型防政变策略,其手段表现在退休军官的政府任职、退休军官的公共部门任职和对现职军官直接给予现金支付等三个方面.这些融合型防政变策略也导致了埃及军队的商业化和防守化,并最终使得该策略在穆巴拉克执政后期逐渐失效.
2017年以来,埃及、沙特、巴林、叙利亚、伊拉克等国在同一个短暂时期完成或接近完成了第三波家庭法改革,但各国在法律形式或条款内容的改革方面表现出系统性差异.权力巩固时期的合法化需求以及选举周期和身份政治的逻辑,刺激了阿拉伯威权国家的权力精英以及民主政体内部分政党在同一阶段推动家庭法改革的议题.不同的制度遗产、政治制度转型以及权力巩固时期精英对本国身份政治群体的考量,解释了同一批国家在改革结果方面的差异.尽管第三波家庭法改革对相关国家女性在家庭领域权利的实际影响仍具有不确定性,对不同身份政治群体中的女性将产生不同影响,但却反映出阿拉伯国家在性别政治、政教关系、族群政治领域正在经历深刻转型.
基于义务兵役制度及预备役制度的实行,以色列国防军被视作"人民军队"且具有特殊地位,在以色列军政关系的形成过程中发挥了重要作用.受安全环境、经济压力、社会思潮、科学技术发展等因素影响,以色列国防军日渐处于以色列政治舞台与社会舆论的中心,"人民军队"模式开始面临挑战并受到质疑.以色列国防军"人民军队"模式的改革涉及兵役项目、兵役时长及兵役人群等三个维度.由于不同改革维度中所涉行动者不同、互动方式不一,这一模式整体变革进度出现不同步性和不协调性,变革中的专业化与精英化要快于社会化,"人民军队"的原有结构不再稳定,出现义务兵役与预备役群体缩小、常备军规模扩大的趋势,旧有军政互动模式面临危机.以色列的兵役制度虽未经历断裂式的大幅度改革,却在不断进行渐进式的调整,为研究兵役制度的发展与走向提供了新的视角.
土耳其的军政关系在中东国家具有典型性,历史上曾四次成功地干预政治,在扮演了政治稳定器和监护作用之后,最终还政于文官政府,这是土耳其军政关系的独特之处.就现实图景和未来走向而言,正义与发展党政府实现了文官对军队的绝对控制,土耳其军政关系已经发生了完全的逆转.然而,我们必须辩证地看待该问题.一方面,土耳其军队干预政治的制度环境确实已经发生了变化,该国军政关系短期内发生逆转和军人干政的可能性不大.另一方面,若是考虑到历史惯性和路径依赖,土耳其军政关系的"钟摆现象"和动态平衡依然会存在.
随着全球进入碳中和时代,世界能源体系正在发生绿色变革.加速能源转型是新时代海合会国家迎合全球能源需求、履行减碳承诺、构建低碳经济、塑造现代国家的必要选择.立足资源优势和发展利益,海合会国家追求能源融合转型,即促进各种能源资源的融合开发,包括油气产业的低碳转型、可再生能源的大规模开发和氢能开发.近年来,它们在行动上取得了一定进展:"油气+CCUS"等措施快速落地;可再生能源装机容量大幅增长,但高碳的发电结构并未改变;多个氢能项目启动建设.能源融合转型面临部分国家缺乏转型决心、治理体系和治理能力不足、开发模式比较单一、能源补贴抑制投资、技术实力有待增强等严峻挑战.中国是海合会国家能源转型的重要合作伙伴,可开拓双边和多边能源合作新领域,与区域国家共建碳中和时代的能源命运共同体.
国际秩序正处于变动过程中,原有国际能源格局遭受冲击,海上能源运输安全的重要性迅速凸显.俄乌冲突后,霍尔木兹海峡沿岸国家成为全球各国寻找能源来源多元化的重要对象国,中东地区能源国家在全球战略性地位愈加提升.长期以来,海上能源运输安全秩序的变化经历了参与主导者位序、运输能力和风险抵御能力、运输沿线国家间亲疏关系、外部权力竞争局势、争端解决机制效能等方面的变化,同时海上非法行为未曾彻底消除,导致维护海上能源运输安全存在难度,这其中以霍尔木兹海峡能源运输面临的安全问题最为典型.尽管国际秩序正在发生深刻的改变,但从中东石油和天然气运输的发展来看,能源安全秩序的现实主义式变化逻辑并未遭遇根本挑战.
军政关系、军教关系和军民关系是当代中东军事政治学研究的三大领域.按军队与政治的互动形态,当前中东地区的军政关系可分为军政协调型、军政平衡型、军强政弱型、军弱政强型和军政碎片型五类,每种类型具有不同的特征与影响,但争夺权力是共性特征.中东地区军队干政表现为"军"与"政"两大集团之间的一组张力,其实质是权力博弈.军队干政的程度与范围因军政关系而异,既具有军事现代化背景下"军政分离、政在军上"的普遍性,也存在因军队干政而呈现的"军政互嵌"的特点;既因为政治制度、资源禀赋、历史传统和宗教文化差异性而呈现出多种形式,也在不同环境中不断调整与演变,朝着"文官掌军"和"军官掌政"双向发展.中东地区多国一系列军队干政的形态变迁表明,在中东国家军事现代化进程中,民主程序的推进、军人阶层的地位、军政权力博弈的态势以及社会民众的预期,是影响中东地区军队干政的重要因素.
作为中国建设"数字丝绸之路"的重要合作伙伴,阿拉伯国家与中国开展跨境电商合作成为中阿深化数字经济合作、实现互利共赢的新选择.阿拉伯国家电子商务渗透率总体偏低,市场潜力巨大.新冠肺炎疫情加速了阿拉伯地区线上购买力的进一步释放,推动阿拉伯电商进入快速发展阶段,同时也为中阿在电商领域加强合作带来机遇.在双方政府层面对接的基础上,中阿跨境电商合作覆盖电商平台、物流服务、电子支付等重点领域并取得明显进展,但在法律制度环境、电商平台建设、物流服务水平、电子支付合作以及电商人才供给等方面存在较多制约因素.中国跨境电商企业需针对重点和难点问题采取积极措施,通过合规经营、品牌战略、海外仓建设、本地化合作以及加强电商人才培养等方式,推动中阿跨境电商合作高质量发展.
文莱的朝觐管理涉及文莱与朝觐圣地主权国沙特关系的维护,其管理机制有效推动了两国友好关系的持续发展.自20世纪80年代独立以来,文莱逐步确立了"以政府为主导、以企业为主体和部门联动管理"的朝觐管理机制.该机制为文莱朝觐事务的顺利开展提供了重要保障,也影响着文莱与沙特双边互动的结构规则.在文莱朝觐管理机制的影响下,宗教文化关系成为文莱与沙特的基础性关系.这不仅为两个伊斯兰国家深化双边友好合作奠定了良好的社会和政治基础,而且有力推动着双边关系在层次性、稳定性和多样性方面的发展.同时,文莱的朝觐管理机制也有利于克服双方交往中的一些客观局限,是文莱与沙特双边外交关系行稳致远的关键因素.
随着大国战略竞争加剧和全球政治多极化发展,海湾阿拉伯国家在全球网络安全治理格局中的地位逐渐不容忽视.本文考察了六个海湾阿拉伯国家在国际网络安全规范之争中的定位及其网络安全治理实践,认为海湾阿拉伯国家选择了一条符合中间地带利益的网络安全治理道路.在国际网络安全治理平台,海湾阿拉伯国家呈现出介于网络大国之间的混合性立场.在国内层面,海湾阿拉伯各国的制度框架为本国国家权力的行使保留了较大灵活性;在区域层面,非正式合作和次国家层面的对话协调机制正成为海湾阿拉伯国家区域网络安全合作的主要形式.对政治、文化和社会安全的考虑,地区竞争和冲突新形式的出现,经济和数字化转型催生的安全漏洞及对网络安全的巨大需求,以及国际层面的联盟关系及其变化,是影响海湾阿拉伯国家在国际网络安全规范之争中立场的重要因素.
2021年10月18日以来,美国、印度、以色列和阿联酋四国开始尝试构建所谓的中东"四方机制".该机制具有国家类型多样化、采用小多边模式、无明确敌对目标、非军事合作为主等鲜明特征.基于《亚伯拉罕协议》的阿联酋与以色列关系正常化、中东地区的战略重要性及印度与中东地理上的邻近、美国日益从中东地区战略收缩等因素,构成了印度加入中东"四方机制"的基础性条件.印度作为中东域外大国,加强与阿联酋、以色列的合作关系、制衡中国和巴基斯坦等国、对冲未加入《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》带来的损失等多重因素,推动其加入该机制.印度加入中东"四方机制"给印度本国、中东地区以及全球政经格局均带来一定影响.今后,该机制能否进一步发展以及印度能否借助该机制达成其预期目标仍面临效力存疑、目标趋异、安全风险、理念落后、自主关切、能力不足等诸多挑战.
自第二次世界大战结束以降,土耳其国防工业经历了从美国化到自主化的发展道路.得益于美国在冷战初期的军事援助,土耳其国防工业呈现美国化的发展特征,尤其是在武器进口方面仰仗美国.1975年因塞浦路斯危机遭遇美国武器禁运后,土耳其国内掀起了一场自上而下的国防工业自主化转型的变革.这场变革包括降低国防武器对外依赖程度、增强自主生产能力、强化政府在国防工业发展中的领导角色等多重内容.到21世纪,土耳其国防工业自主化程度不断增强,不仅提高了武器国产化率,还实现了武器的大量出口.国防工业的自主化发展战略既改善了土耳其武器长期依赖进口的被动境遇,又为土耳其摆脱与美国的依附性联盟关系提供了有力保障.随着国防工业力量的显著提升,土耳其在地缘政治格局、国际军火市场和对外关系中拥有更大的话语权,在地区问题乃至国际政治事务中扮演着越来越重要的角色.
