Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the second leading cause of disease burden in the Chinese population, and dietary factors are considered as effective and feasible approaches to reduce the disease burden. Objective To analyze the trends in the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2021 and future trends in China, aiming to provide a reference basis for dietary prevention and treatment of IHD in China. Methods Data related to the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China, worldwide, and regions with varied socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Using the Joinpoint model, the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated to analyze the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China, worldwide, and regions with varied SDI. Furthermore, the model evaluated the diet-ralated disease burden by gender and age groups in China, as well as the burden of disease attributable to specific dietary factors within the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the standardized mortality rate and the standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors from 2022 to 2031. Results In 2021, the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China were 44.26/100 000 and 820.87/100 000, respectively, which were close to the global levels, but higher than those of high SDI regions and lower than the remaining four categories of SDI regions. From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate (AAPC=-0.17%, P<0.001) and the standardized DALY rate (AAPC=-0.50%, P<0.001) of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China showed a decreased trend, which were consistent with the global trend and those in the five categories of SDI regions. The global decrease was significantly higher than that in China, with the fastest decrease in the high SDI regions. Disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors was significantly higher in Chinese males than in females in 1990 and 2021. The standardized mortality rate (AAPC=0.25%, P<0.001) of IHD attributable to dietary factors in Chinese males showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2021. The standardized mortality rate (AAPC=-0.71%, P<0.001) and standardized DALY rate (AAPC=-1.23%, P<0.001) in Chinese females both showed a decreased trend. Disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors showed an increased trend with age in China in 1990 and 2021, and the highest mortality and DALY rate were detected in people ≥70 years old. The mortality and DALY rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors for the residents aged 50-69 years showed a decreased trend from 1990 to 2021, while those in the 15-49 years and ≥70 years showed an increased trend (P<0.001). Among the 13 dietary factors attributed to the standardized mortality and standardized DALY rate of IHD in 1990 and 2021, the top were excessive sodium intake and insufficient intake of whole grains. Dietary factors attributed to the most significant increased trends in the standardized mortality and standardized DALY rate of IHD from 1990 to 2021 were excessive intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, excessive intake of processed meats, and red meat intake. The BAPC model showed that the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China will decline over the next 10 years. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality and standardized DALY rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors decreased in China, but the decline is slower compared to high SDI regions. Disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors is heavier among men and the elderly. Therefore, it is essential to focus on dietary prevention and control strategies for IHD. Efforts should be made to promote healthy dietary patterns, increase the intake of whole grains, and reduce the consumption of sodium, sugar-sweetened beverages, processed meats, and red meats. Targeted measures and effective interventions are needed to further reduce the disease burden.

The environmental pollution associated with electrical discharge machining is not yet clearly understood. Airborne exposure to nanoscale and respirable particles were investigated with regard to the aerosol characteristics of a wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM) workshop. The total number concentration of the aerosol was multimodal, with the highest peak maxima during the working hours of 10:00 am and 3:00 pm. The majority of the released particles were smaller than d = 100 nm, with the maximum amount sized 40 nm. A large quantity of metallic elements, including Fe, Al and Cu, were found in the aerosol particulates coming from WEDM processing. Furthermore, the aerosol particles exhibited higher cellular toxicity and ROS producing ability in human alveolar epithelial cells (16HBE) when compared to the atmospheric background. Our results indicate substantial hazards arising from exposure to polluted atmosphere of a WEDM workshop. Effective exposure controls and protections are thus strongly recommended.

目的 了解长沙市岳麓区居民膳食结构和营养素摄入现况,为针对性开展营养健康教育提供参考依据.方法调查长沙市岳麓区3岁及以上居民2020年食物消费状况,采用Kruskal-Wallis H检验分析各年龄组居民平均每标准人日膳食和营养素摄入量差异,并与2010-2013年中国居民营养与健康状况、中国居民膳食指南和膳食营养素参考摄入量进行比较.结果 共计392人纳入数据分析,其中男性192人、女性200人,平均年龄(37.39±19.93)岁.2020年岳麓区居民平均每标准入日谷类(341.9 g)、大豆(33.6 g)、蛋类(39.9 g)和鱼虾蟹贝类(47.3 g)摄入量基本达到膳食宝塔推荐量;但薯类(19.5 g)、水果(34.9 g)、乳及乳制品(58.9 g)的摄入严重不足,畜禽肉类(159.7 g)、食用油(44.5 g)和盐(6.4 g)的摄入量超标.平均每标准人日营养素摄入量中,蛋白质、B族维生素、维生素E、钠、磷、铁的摄入量达到了推荐摄入量(RNI)要求,碳水化合物和脂肪供能比分别为41.3％和45.0％,比2012年全国平均水平下降了 13.7％和上升12.1％.不同年龄组中,18～64岁人群各种营养素摄入达标比较低,其能量摄入仅1 821.0 kcal.结论2020年长沙市岳麓区居民大豆、坚果、动物性食物和盐摄入状况有所改善,但整体膳食结构不合理和各年龄组营养素摄入分布不均的问题仍然存在,应继续加强"减油减盐"宣教,引导居民增加薯类、蔬果和奶类的摄入量.

Objective To understand the pollution status of Listeria monocytogenes(LM)in different categories of commercial food products in Hu'nan Province,and provide a basis for the prevention and control of foodborne diseases and food safety supervision.Methods In 2014 to 2021,12 046 food samples from 15 categories were randomly selected in 14 cities and prefectures in the province to carry out LM testing,and SPSS software was used to test the LM pollution in different food characteristics in urban and rural areas.Results A total of 12 046 commercially available food samples were collected,with 297 testing positive for LM,resulting in an overall detection rate of 2.47％.There was a statistically significant difference in LM detection rates among different quarters(x2=18.652,P＜0.001).The second quarter had the highest detection rate(3.24％),presenting a risk 1.6 times higher than that of other quarters(95％CI:1.246～1.983,P＜0.001).The detection rate of LM in bulk food was higher than that of pre-packaged food,and the difference was statistical significant(P＜0.001).The detection rate of edible fungi and their products(9.17％)among different categories of food in urban areas was the highest,and the risk of LM pollution was 4.1 times that of other food categories(95％CI:2.168～7.674,P＜0.001),followed by meat and meat products(7.13％)and frozen rice and noodles(3.74％).The top three foods with LM detection rate in rural areas were edible fungi and their products(44.44％),quick-frozen rice and noodles(5.88％),and meat and meat products(4.48％).Among meat and meat products,the risk of LM contamination of prefabricated meat products and frozen livestock meat was 52.5 times and 36.1 times that of cooked meat products(P＜0.001).In addition,the detection rate of this bacteria in food in the circulation link is higher than that in catering services(x2=56.654,P＜0.001),the detection rate of food in wholesale markets is the highest(11.54％),and the pollution risk was 5.2 times than that of other places(95％CI:1.553～17.423,P=0.025).Conclusion LM contamination exists in commerical food in Hu'nan Province,especially in edible fungi and prefabricated meat products.

Background There has been a widespread concern over the issue of the negative effects of brain cancer on physical and mental health, but there are few studies on the past and future trends of brain cancer mortality in China. Objective To perform an analysis of the trend of crude mortality rate (CMR) of brain cancers in 2000-2019, and that in 2020-2024 in China, providing a reference for formulating prevention and control strategies for brain cancers. Methods Data of brain cancer deaths in China from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, including CMR and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR, calculated using the age composition of the 2019 world population). The mortality trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. The age, period and birth cohort effects of CMR were estimated by intrinsic estimator (IE) and age-period-cohort model (APC model). GM (1, 1) model was established by R (4.1.3) to predict the CMR of brain cancers in 2020-2024. Results The Joinpoint regression analysis the ASMR of brain cancers showed a downward trend in the whole population, male and female populations. The ASMR of brain cancers in the whole population, male and female populations decreased by 0.68%, 0.47%, and 0.87% on average each year, respectively from 2000 to 2019 (P<0.05). The APC analysis revealed that the death risk of brain cancers in both Chinese male and female populations increased with age and period. The death risk of brain cancers in the late birth cohort was lower than that in the early birth cohort, that is, the effect coefficient decreased from 0.62 in the 1904-1908 birth cohort to -1.28 in the 2014-2019 birth cohort in male, and that increased from 0.36 in the 1904-1908 female cohort to 0.57 in the 1929-1933 birth cohort, then it gradually decreased, and hit its lowest point in the 2014-2019 birth cohort (-1.16) in female. GM (1, 1) model predicted that the CMR of brain cancers in China would continue to rise after 2019, reaching 4.34/105 in 2020, 4.39/105 in 2021, 4.44/105 in 2022, 4.49/105 in 2023 and 4.54/105 in 2024. Conclusion During 2000 to 2019, the ASMR of brain cancers in China generally showed a downward trend, and the risk of brain cancer death increased with age and year. People who were born earlier had a greater risk of death. The predicted ASMR of brain cancers would continue to rise in 2020-2024. So strong measures should be still carried out to prevent and control brain cancers, such as strengthening the propaganda of prevention and control of brain cancers in high-risk groups, advocating a healthy lifestyle, and reducing the disease burden of brain cancers.

[目的]分析1990-2019年全球甲状腺癌(TC)发病现状和变化趋势,并预测未来TC发病情况.[方法]从联合国开发计划署收集人类发展指数(HDI)数据,利用2019全球疾病负担数据库(GBD 2019),按地理、社会人口指数(SDI)、国家和地区、性别、年龄收集1990-2019年全球TC发病数据,计算年估计百分比变化(EAPC)来分析发病趋势变化,通过Pearson相关分析研究年龄标化发病率(ASIR)与HDI的相关性.使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2020-2030年发病情况.[结果]1990-2019年全球ASIR呈上升趋势(EAPC=1.25,95％CI:1.12～1.37).19个区域呈上升趋势,增幅最大的是澳大拉西亚(Australasia)(EAPC=2.72,95％CI:2.37～3.07).5类SDI国家和地区发病数与ASIR均呈上升趋势,其中,中SDI国家和地区发病数与ASIR上升最快(EAPC=2.36,95％CI:2.28～2.44),2019年高SDI国家和地区的发病数、ASIR最高,分别为6.84万例、4.59/10万.165个国家和地区ASIR呈上升趋势,沙特阿拉伯增长幅度最大(EAPC=5.67,95％CI:5.37～5.98),中国2019年发病数最多,为3.91万例.男性 ASIR 较女性上升更多,EAPC 分别为 1.89(95％CI:1.77～2.02)、0.98(95％CI:0.85～1.12).TC粗发病率在低年龄组时已逐步上升,发病率顶峰为75～79岁年龄组,为9.35/10万;50～54岁组发病数最多,为2.75万例.2019年不同国家和地区的ASIR与其HDI呈正相关(r=0.62,P＜0.001).预测2030年全球TC的ASIR、发病数分别将达3.26/10万、33.13万例.[结论]2019年女性、高SDI国家和地区、中老年人群ASIR和发病数更高,但过去30年男性、中SDI国家和地区上升更快.1990-2019年5类SDI、19个区域、165个国家和地区ASIR均呈上升趋势,预测2020-2030年全球TC发病数和ASIR可能进一步上升.应密切关注TC防控,加强对高危人群的保护.

目的 了解1990-2019年中国子宫内膜癌疾病负担变化趋势,并预测2020-2030年疾病的发病和死亡情况.方法 收集GBD2019数据库中的1990-2019年中国子宫内膜癌发病、死亡、早死所致寿命损失年(YLL)、伤残所致健康寿命损失年(YLD)和伤残调整寿命年(DALY)资料,应用Joinpoint回归模型分析子宫内膜癌的疾病负担变化趋势,采用R 4.2.1,运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型对2020-2030年中国子宫内膜癌的发病和死亡情况进行预测.结果 1990-2019年中国子宫内膜癌的粗发病率由4.23/10万升至9.57/10万,标化发病率由5.13/10万升至6.39/10万,标化死亡率由2.38/10万下降至1.17/10万,变化趋势均有统计学意义(AAPC分别为2.88％、0.77％、-2.42％,P＜0.05).粗死亡率的整体变化趋势无统计学意义(P＞0.05).1990-2019年我国子宫内膜癌的标化DALY率、粗YLL率及标化YLL率均呈下降趋势(AAPC分别为-2.35％、-0.60％、-2.57％),粗YLD率和标化YLD率均呈上升趋势(AAPC分别为3.39％、1.33％),趋势变化均有统计学意义(P＜0.05);粗DALY率的整体变化趋势无统计学意义(P＞0.05).子宫内膜癌发病率随着年龄的增长而上升,在55～59岁年龄组达到峰值,之后逐渐下降;死亡率随着年龄的增加逐渐上升;DALY率随着年龄的增长而上升,在60～64岁时达到峰值,之后随年龄的增加而下降.预测结果显示,预计2020-2030年我国子宫内膜癌标化发病率将持续增加,从6.90/10万升至11.72/10万,标化死亡率也将出现小幅增长,从1.18/10万升至1.38/10万.结论 中国子宫内膜癌的疾病负担较重,预计未来改善缓慢,需积极采取措施以减轻疾病负担.

【 Abstract 】 Objective To analyze the morbidity and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, explore the causes of the trends, and predict morbidity and mortality in the future. Methods The morbidity and mortality data of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression

Objective: To analyze the morbidity and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, explore the causes of the trends, and predict morbidity and mortality in the future. Methods: The morbidity and mortality data of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the change trends. Based on the morbidity and mortality data from 2012 to 2019, a grey model GM (1,1) was constructed to predict the trends in the next ten years. The model was tested by the posterior error method and residual test method. Results: In all populations, men and women, the AAPC values of the crude morbidity rates were 4.15% (95%CI: 3.86%-4.44%, P<0.001), 5.98% (95%CI: 5.65%-6.31%, P<0.001) and 3.23% (95%CI: 2.94%-3.53%, P<0.001) respectively, the AAPC values of age-standardized morbidity rates were 2.47% (95%CI: 2.12%-2.83%, P<0.001), 3.98% (95%CI: 3.68%-4.29%, P<0.001), 1.65% (95%CI: 1.38%-1.93%, P<0.001), the AAPC values of crude mortality rates were 2.09% (95%CI: 1.92%-2.25%, P<0.001), 3.68% (95%CI: 3.45%-3.90%, P<0.001), 0.60% (95%CI: 0.50%-0.71%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rates in men showed a fluctuating trend of first decrease (1990-1994), then increase (1994-2012), and then decrease (2012-2019) (AAPC=1.35%, 95%CI: 1.16%-1.53%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate in women continuously decreased (AAPC=-1.70%, 95%CI: -1.82%- -1.58%, P<0.001). The GM (1,1) models can be used for medium and long-term predictions. The results of the residual test show that the average relative error values of all models are less than 10.00%, the prediction accuracy values are more than 80.00%, and the prediction effects are good. The results of the posterior error method show that all the prediction results are good except the qualified prediction of the age-standardized morbidity rate in men. In 2029, the crude morbidity rates would increase to 3.57/100 000, 2.78/100 000, and 4.40/100 000, respectively, and the age-standardized incidence rates would increase to 2.38/100 000, 1.89/100 000, and 2.88/100 000, respectively, the crude mortality rates would increase to 0.57/100 000, 0.62/100 000 and 0.53/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rates would decrease to 0.33/100 000, 0.42/100 000 and 0.27/100 000 in all population, men and women in China. Conclusions: The overall, gender- specific age-standardized mortality rates showed downward trends in the last decade or so, and the prediction results showed that it might further decline. However, the crude morbidity rates, age-standardized and crude mortality rates have been on the rise, and the population aging is becoming increasingly serious in China, which requires close attention and targeted prevention and control measures.

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and serotype distribution of foodborne disease pathogens in Hunan Province, to provide a reference for accurate prevention and control of foodborne diseases. Methods Information on active surveillance cases of foodborne diseases from 2017 to 2021 from 18 sentinel hospitals in Hunan Province were collected, and fecal/anal swab specimens were collected for specific pathogen testing. Comparison of the detection of different characteristic pathogens was performed using the χ~2 test. Results A total of 12 579 fecal or anal swab specimens were collected, with a total pathogen detection rate of 21.26%, including Salmonella（8.68%）, Norovirus（8.52%）,Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli（DEC）（4.35%）, Vibrio parahaemolyticus（0.66%）, and Shigella（0.06%）. In terms of seasonal distribution, the three foodborne pathogenic bacteria except Shigella had the highest detection rate in the third quarter（P＜0.001）, and that of Norovirus was the highest in the first quarter（ χ~2=250.915, P＜0.001）. Salmonella Typhimurium accounted for the largest proportion（63.34%） in Salmonella, which mainly occurred in children under 5 years old. Norovirus had the highest detection in the age group of 5 to 17 years, and the main viral pathogen was GⅡ（68.53%）. Positive cases of common pathogens suspected exposure was food grains and their products（15.77%）, meat and meat products, and fruits and their products（14.91%）. Homemade（34.35%） and bulk suspicious food（24.52%） was the main processing and packaging methods.Conclusion Salmonella and Norovirus are the main pathogens causing infectious diarrhea in Hunan Province, with obvious seasonality and high incidence in children and adolescents. Active surveillance should be continued, and food safety knowledge publicity of dominant bacteria should be promoted in key populations.

Objective The study aims to analyze the changing trend of the incidence rate of stroke and its subtypes in Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and to investigate the main subtypes by age-period-cohort（APC）. Methods The data which including stroke incidence rate and its subtypes at all ages in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global burden of disease database. The changing trend of the crude and standardized incidence rates was briefly described. The APC model was further applied to analyze the age, period, and cohort effect of the incidence rate of the main stroke subtypes. Results From 1990 to 2019, the overall standardized incidence rate of stroke in Chinese population showed a downward trend. However, the long-term change trend of age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke was inconsistent. And the age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke was significantly higher than that of subarachnoid hemorrhage. The incidence effect coefficient of hemorrhagic stroke gradually increased with the increase of age, with the lowest in the 0-＜5 age group（effect value-3.10） and the highest in the 85-＜90 age group（effect value 1.86）. The risk of the latter was 142.45 times than that of the former. The period effect increases first and then decreases with the these years. While the cohort effect decreases with the passage of time. It is worth noting that there has been a small recovery in recent years. The incidence effect coefficient of ischemic stroke in China showed a trend of first decreasing and then rapidly increasing with age. The effect coefficient of the 20-＜25 age group was the lowest（effect value-2.00）, and the 80-＜85 age group had the highest effect value（effect value 1.86）. The incidence risk of the 80-＜85 age group was 47.45 times than that of the 20-＜25 age group. The period effect increases with years, and the cohort effect showed a downward trend over time. Conclusions Although the overall standardized incidence rate of stroke in Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 showed a downward trend, its major subtypes of ischemic stroke showed an upward trend. The older people live get, the greater possibility of stroke they will have. It still needs to strengthen the prevention and control of stroke, especially ischemic stroke.

目的 分析1990-2019年我国不同性别甲状腺癌死亡趋势,探讨性别趋势差异原因及高危人群.方法 收集并整理全球健康数据交换库中1990-2019年我国5～＜95岁不同性别甲状腺癌的死亡数据.运用年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort,APC)模型分析年龄、时期、出生队列对甲状腺癌死亡率变化的影响.结果 1990-2013年男性甲状腺癌标化死亡率持续上升,在2013年达到最大值后逐渐下降.女性甲状腺癌年龄标化死亡率呈持续下降趋势.APC模型结果显示:男性与女性的净漂移值分别为1.38％、-2.94％.我国不同性别甲状腺癌的死亡风险均随着年龄的增长而增大,男性"J"字形上升趋势更为明显;男性甲状腺癌的死亡风险随着时期和出生队列推移而增大,女性则相反.结论 男性年龄标准化死亡率呈先上升后逐渐下降趋势,女性年龄标准化死亡率呈持续下降的趋势.越早出生的高龄女性甲状腺癌死亡风险越高,越晚出生的高龄男性死亡风险越高.

目的 调查湖南省某市居民野生菌中毒认知情况并分析其影响因素,为有针对性地开展有毒野生菌中毒防控宣传工作提供参考.方法 采取多阶段抽样的方法在湖南省某市5个区县中随机抽取480名居民作为研究对象,应用湖南省居民野生菌中毒认知现状及影响因素调查问卷进行纸质问卷调查.结果 湖南省某市居民野生菌中毒认知调查结果显示8题中仅4题知晓率在80％以上;二元logistic回归分析结果显示家务及待业(OR=0.353,95％CI:0.152～0.821,P=0.016)、有食用野生菌习惯(OR=0.337,95％CI:0.140～0.812,P=0.015)的居民得高分概率更低;多重应答分析结果显示中毒知识通过"宣传标语或海报""微信、小视频等手机信息"获取信息的实际获取途径与希望获取途径一致.电视在目前获取途径中位列第4,在希望获取途径中位列第2.结论 湖南省某市居民野生菌中毒知识知晓率有待提高,风险交流策略亟需进一步优化.

[目的]分析1990-2019年中国卵巢癌发病与死亡现状及其流行趋势.[方法]收集并整理全球健康数据交换数据库(the Global Health Data Exchange,GHDx)中1990-2019年20～＜85岁中国卵巢癌的发病与死亡数据,利用Joinpoint线性回归模型分析卵巢癌发病与死亡的变化趋势,并计算年度变化百分比(APC)与平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)值.运用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期、队列对发病率与死亡率变化的影响.[结果]1990-2019年中国卵巢癌发病率与死亡率均呈上升趋势,分别平均每年上升3.85％、3.86％.模型结果显示,发病与死亡的净漂移值均＞0,分别为1.82％、0.89％.发病与死亡风险随年龄和时期的增加而增高,其队列效应表现不同,出生越晚的人群发病风险高,死亡风险低.[结论]1990-2019年中国卵巢癌总体发病与死亡率均呈上升趋势,生活时代越近的老年人群发病与死亡的风险越高,对卵巢癌的防治工作应加强关注.

目的 分析我国肾癌发病变化趋势及其影响因素.方法 收集《中国肿瘤登记年报》中2005～2015年中国肾癌的相关数据,运用Join point回归分析肾癌发病率的变化趋势,负二项回归分析肾癌在人群水平的发病影响因素.结果 2005～2015年我国肾癌发病率男性高于女性,城市高于农村;2007年为男性肾癌标化发病率变化趋势转折点,2007～2015年下降趋势明显,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05);全国、女性、城市亚组的肾癌标化发病率均呈下降趋势,2015年较2005年分别下降了8.6％、6.3％、2.3％;农村亚组标化发病率呈显著上升趋势,2015年较2005年上升了50.3％;城市亚组几乎所有年龄段的发病率均呈下降趋势,而农村各年龄段均呈明显上升趋势,其中以45～岁年龄组上升最快,平均每年上升8.19％.进一步的回归分析发现,男性中肾癌的发病风险是女性的1.70倍;城市是农村的2.34倍;每增加5岁,发病风险平均增大32％.结论 2005～2015年我国肾癌发病率总体趋势下降,存在性别和城乡差异,农村肾癌发病率上升趋势明显,应继续加强对肾癌的防治.

目的 分析中国胰腺癌2005—2016年的发病趋势及影响因素.方法 摘录2008—2019年出版的《中国肿瘤登记年报》中胰腺癌发病数据,利用Joinpoint模型和负二项回归模型分别进行发病趋势、影响因素分析.结果 2005—2016年中国胰腺癌标化发病率趋于稳定,其中2008—2014年年度变化百分比(APC)呈下降趋势(P<0.05).城市地区高于乡村,城市变化起伏大,其中2008—2016年城市APC呈下降趋势(P<0.05),乡村相对平稳.男性胰腺癌标化发病率高于女性,且变化趋势一致,其中2008—2014年男性APC呈下降趋势(P<0.05).<40岁胰腺癌发病率较低,≥40岁快速上升,在80～85岁时达到高峰.负二项结果显示城乡、年龄和性别是胰腺癌发病的影响因素(P<0.05).结论 2005—2016年中国胰腺癌标化发病率趋于稳定,城乡、年龄和性别是胰腺癌发病的影响因素.

目的:分析进口冷链食品严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)暴露的风险,提出预防食品污染、管理食品安全风险的干预措施.方法:收集进口冷链食品SARS-CoV-2核酸检测阳性的所有案例,分析疫情暴发至2021年1月SARS-CoV-2污染的食品核酸检测阳性的时间、样本、食品种类和来源国的分布,评估食品传播新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的潜在风险.结果:中国通报的224起进口冷链食品SARS-CoV-2核酸检测阳性案例发生时间分布不均衡,主要集中在2020年11月-2021年1月,其中来源于阿根廷、巴西、俄罗斯、印度等国家进口的冷链食品居多;以冷冻海鲜检出核酸阳性的次数最多,占总阳性案例的37.95％(85/224);检测样本以食品外包装(共125起)暴露风险最大,并有向食品内包装、产品、运输工具食品和周围环境扩大污染范围的迹象.结论:从新冠肺炎疫情严重的国家进口食品和在卫生状况差的经营场所销售食品均存在SARS-CoV-2污染的风险,且冷链物流的低温条件增加了病毒留存,建议加强对进口冷链食品从生产到销售全环节的管控,发挥我国进口冷链食品集中监管专仓的预防性全面消毒和核酸检测的作用.

[目的]基于全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease study,GBD)数据库,分析2000-2019年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势,并对2020-2030年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势进行预测.[方法]提取GBD数据库中我国2000-2019年全年龄段胰腺癌发病率和死亡率数据,利用Joinpoint模型进行趋势分析,基于R4.0.5软件建立GM(1,1)模型,对2020-2030年中国胰腺癌发病和死亡趋势进行预测.[结果]2000-2019年中国胰腺癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势,平均每年增长4.88％、4.87％,且变化趋势趋于一致;建立的GM(1,1)预测模型精度等级高,可以进行中长期预测;预测结果显示2020-2030年我国胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率将会持续上升.[结论]我国胰腺癌发病率和死亡率在过去一段时间内呈上升趋势,并且未来可能持续上升,需进一步加强对胰腺癌的防控.

目的 调查1990-2019年中国子宫内膜癌的发病趋势,分析子宫内膜癌发病的年龄、时期和队列效应.方法 在全球健康数据交换数据库(GHDx)中获取1990-2019年中国20～<80岁女性子宫内膜癌发病数据,应用Joinpoint线性回归模型分析子宫内膜癌的发病趋势,年度变化百分比(APC)模型分析年龄、时期及队列三因素对其发病的影响.结果 Joinpoint线性回归分析显示,1990-2019年中国子宫内膜癌粗发病率总体上升,平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为2.07％.APC模型分析显示,子宫内膜癌的发病风险随着年龄的增加先升后降,55～<60岁组发病风险最大,相对危险度(RR)为2.51;随时期的推移先增后减,2005-2009和2010-2014年的发病风险最大,RR值均为1.34;随出生队列的推移总体呈下降趋势,RR值从2.10降到0.64.结论 1990-2019年中国子宫内膜癌发病率总体呈上升趋势,我国子宫内膜癌发病存在显著的年龄、时期和队列效应.需进一步加强流行规律与病因调查,进而研究防控措施,以期降低子宫内膜癌发病率.

目的 收集《中国肿瘤登记年报》中2005-2015年卵巢癌发病与死亡的全部数据,分析其变化趋势,为卵巢癌的科学防治提供依据.方法 分层汇总中国居民2005-2015年卵巢癌发病与死亡数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型估算中国女性卵巢癌的发病与死亡变化趋势;采用负二项回归模型分析死亡和发病在人口学特征上的差异.结果 2005-2015年全国和城市女性卵巢癌标化发病率均呈现下降趋势,分别平均每年下降1.76％(P=0.002)和1.91％(P<0.001).农村女性卵巢癌粗/标化发病率呈上升趋势,标化发病率平均每年上升5.20％(P<0.001);粗/标化死亡率整体呈上升趋势,标化死亡率平均每年上升4.61％(P<0.001).城市和农村女性年龄别发病率在35岁后开始上升,主要集中在50～<75岁,与死亡率高峰年龄段相似.农村女性卵巢癌的死亡风险是城市女性的0.677倍(P<0.001);每增加5岁,死亡风险平均增加7.9％(P<0.001).结论 2005-2015年我国卵巢癌发病率与死亡率总体呈现下降趋势,但存在地区差异.城市女性卵巢癌发病率与死亡率处于下降与平稳状态,农村有逐年上升趋势,应加强以农村妇女为重点的卵巢癌防控工作.