The green electricity certificate (GEC) in China has been widely acknowledged for its positive role in advancing high-quality development in the renewable energy sector over the nearly 10 years since its implementation. However, it remains to be seen whether the GEC can overcome the carbon lock-in (CLI) trap that is hindering China's decarbonization process. Using panel data from 30 provinces of China covering the period 2013 to 2022, we apply a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model to investigate the influence of the GEC on CLI, its potential mechanisms of action, and the heterogeneity observed systematically. Empirical results indicate that the GEC can effectively mitigate CLI, a conclusion that has passed a number of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis shows that the indirect influence of the GEC on CLI is primarily achieved through optimizing the power generation structure and promoting technological innovations in renewable energy. Furthermore, the carbon unlocking effect of the GEC is more pronounced in eastern and western region, whereas it produces the opposite effect in the northeastern region. The GEC is also more effective in promoting unlocking at the industrial and behavioral dimensions. This study expands the theoretical horizons of GEC policy evaluation and provides empirical evidence and policy guidance for the optimization of China's GEC.

The scaling up of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) deployment is constrained by multiple factors, including technological immaturity, high capital expenditures, and extended investment return periods. The existing research on CCUS investment decisions predominantly centers on coal-fired power plants, with the utilization pathways placing a primary emphasis on storage or enhanced oil recovery (EOR). There is limited research available regarding the chemical utilization of carbon dioxide (CO2). This study develops an options-based analytical model, employing geometric Brownian motion to characterize carbon and oil price uncertainties while incorporating the learning curve effect in carbon capture infrastructure costs. Additionally, revenues from chemical utilization and EOR are integrated into the return model. A case study is conducted on a process producing 100,000 tons of methanol annually via CO2 hydrogenation. Based on numerical simulations, we determine the optimal investment conditions for the “CO2-to-methanol + EOR” collaborative scheme. Parameter sensitivity analyses further evaluate how key variables—carbon pricing, oil market dynamics, targeted subsidies, and the cost of renewable electricity—influence investment timing and feasibility. The results reveal that the following: (1) Carbon pricing plays a pivotal role in influencing investment decisions related to CCUS. A stable and sufficiently high carbon price improves the economic feasibility of CCUS projects. When the initial carbon price reaches 125 CNY/t or higher, refining–chemical integrated plants are incentivized to make immediate investments. (2) Increases in oil prices also encourage CCUS investment decisions by refining–chemical integrated plants, but the effect is weaker than that of carbon prices. The model reveals that when oil prices exceed USD 134 per barrel, the investment trigger is activated, leading to earlier project implementation. (3) EOR subsidy and the initial equipment investment subsidy can promote investment and bring forward the expected exercise time of the option. Immediate investment conditions will be triggered when EOR subsidy reaches CNY 75 per barrel or more, or the subsidy coefficient reaches 0.2 or higher. (4) The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from photovoltaic sources is identified as a key determinant of hydrogen production economics. A sustained decline in LCOE—from CNY 0.30/kWh to 0.22/kWh, and further to 0.12/kWh or below—significantly advances the optimal investment window. When LCOE reaches CNY 0.12/kWh, the project achieves economic viability, enabling investment potentially as early as 2025. This study provides guidance and reference cases for CCUS investment decisions integrating EOR and chemical utilization in China’s refining–chemical integrated plants.

With the proposal of China’s “dual carbon” goal, the carbon market has become a vital tool for controlling carbon emissions. This study constructs a system dynamics model encompassing carbon trading, the economy, energy, population, and the environment, and conducts simulation analysis against the backdrop of China’s national carbon market’s implementation. The results indicate that the implementation of China’s national carbon market significantly promotes carbon emissions reduction, albeit at the cost of some economic development in the short term. However, the suppressive effect of the carbon market on carbon emissions is stronger than its negative impact on economic growth. The effects of carbon reduction strengthen with increases in carbon price, quota auction, CCER price, penalty severity, and the quota reduction rate and weaken with a higher CCER offset ratio. A moderate reduction in the tightening quota reduction rate is more conducive to achieving coordinated development across the multiple objectives of carbon reduction, economic development, and energy structure. Under the constraints of multiple objectives involving carbon reduction, economic development, and energy structure, the reasonable range for carbon prices is between CNY 77.9 and CNY 118.9 per ton, with the maximum quota auction of 23.4%. Additionally, the reasonable range for the quota reduction rates is between 0.84% and 2.18%, with the penalty severity set at 7.

Excessive carbon emission presents a considerable danger to the sustainability of global development. The carbon market, a crucial mechanism to cut carbon emissions, is gaining more attention from the Chinese government. In this study, provincial-level total-factor carbon emission efficiency in China is assessed, and the influence of the national carbon market on this efficiency is examined. Through the introduction of the carbon market’s internal constraint mechanism, a novel perspective for analyzing the driving mechanism is constructed. Empirical findings indicate that the carbon market significantly improves total-factor carbon emission efficiency. Currently, the constraint mechanism acts as the primary driver of this improvement, while the role of the market-based mechanism remains underutilized. Mediation analysis suggests that the improvement is mainly achieved through adjustments in the energy structure; by contrast, neither technological innovation nor industrial restructuring exhibits a significant effect. The conclusions are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of China’s carbon market. Lastly, several recommendations are proposed.

CCUS, an emerging technology for reducing carbon emission, plays a crucial role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. CCUS technology exemplified by CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is gradually progressing from project demonstration to large-scale application. However, the commercial application still faces uncertainties in economic cost, energy efficiency and environmental benefits. This paper takes China's first million-tonne CCUS-EOR project (Qilu Petrochemical-Shengli Oilfield CCUS-EOR project) as an example, and establishes a comprehensive research framework for evaluating CCUS from the three dimensions of energy, environment, and economy, based on economic viability, energy input-output analysis, and carbon input-output analysis. The results demonstrate that during the project lifecycle, when the average oil price is $90/bbl, the project's NPV is $56.09 million, the project's IRR is 13.4 %, the payback period is 8.34 years, and the threshold oil price for the project to be economically profitable is $81.52/bbl. Furthermore, the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of the project is 9.09, which considerably superior to that of the Shengli Oilfield's non-EOR, and the net energy output is approximately 18,472.57 kilobarrels. The Carbon Return on Investment (CROI) of the project is 4.12, with significant environmental benefits, and the cumulative net carbon emission reduction is approximately 8078.55 kilotonnes. Furthermore, the trends in EROI and CROI of the CCUS-EOR project demonstrate nearly opposite trajectories. The variation trends in EROI emerge N-shaped curve, while that of CROI emerge S-shaped curve. In summary, the Qilu Petrochemical-Shengli Oilfield CCUS-EOR project exhibits notable advantages in terms of energy efficiency and environmental benefits. However, the threshold oil price for triggering economic profitability is relatively high, which may pose certain economic risks to investors during periods of low oil price.

Developing renewable energy (RE) is the inevitable choice for China to achieve its climate goals. However, financing RE investments remains challenging. Meanwhile, China’s digital finance (DF) is profoundly influencing the trajectory of the energy transition. This study empirically investigates the role of DF on the growth of RE, what aspects of DF matter, and its geographical attenuation process, taking both spatial and temporal dimensions into consideration. The empirical results show that DF and its coverage breadth and usage depth can facilitate RE development in both local and neighboring regions, with a comparatively limited effect of digitalization level. The impact of DF on the growth of RE is heterogeneous and has been declining over time. Specifically, this effect is observable only in the eastern regions. The spillover effects of DF on RE development vary in different spatial thresholds, which has clear boundary effects and geographical decay characteristics.

The current international geopolitical situation is characterized by tension, and international energy prices are significantly influenced by external contingencies. To explore the ripple effects of international energy price fluctuations on domestic products in China, a non-competitive price ripple effect model has been constructed in this paper based on the latest version of the national input–output table of China, and the actual average fluctuations of international coal, oil, and natural gas prices have been quantified. The findings indicate that international energy price fluctuations exert the greatest impact on the upstream sectors of the national economic industrial chain, followed by the transportation and conventional manufacturing sectors, while the light industry and service sectors are subject to relatively smaller price shocks. The average fluctuations of international primary energy prices result in an overall increase of 1.88 percentage points in National Economic Price. The ripple effects of international energy prices are mainly transmitted through the sector of Processing of Petroleum, Coking, Processing of Nuclear Fuel, and the sector of Manufacture of Chemicals and Chemical Products. Concurrently, some suggestions are presented in this paper.

Reducing coal production is the key way for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Meanwhile, it will also have a significant impact on China's socio-economic development. In this study, an energy-economicenvironmental-social model based on the Extended Energy Big Data principle (EEBD-3ES) was constructed to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of coal production reductions under different scenarios. The results show that different coal reduction scenarios will reduce national CO2 emissions by 598.9-1026.27 billion tons and cumulatively reduce GDP by 194.57-410.54 billion yuan, with a reduction of the comprehensive index by 0.05-0.21 %. Based on inter-provincial coal and electricity trade, this study also quantifies the provincial socioeconomic impacts under different reduction scenarios. These findings provide recommendations for policy makers to make strategic decisions to gradually reduce coal production and minimize the socio-economic impacts.

文章以2006-2020年我国31个省份数据要素市场化配置基础数据为研究样本,将经典TOPSIS模型改进为PFHWD-TOPSIS模型对数据要素市场化配置效率进行测度,进一步运用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计方法、σ收敛与β收敛模型对区域差异及其来源、分布动态演进及收敛性进行分析.研究发现:在样本期内,各省份数据要素市场化配置效率呈波动上升趋势,总体差异、区域内差异和区域间差异均呈现波动下降趋势;东部地区数据要素市场化配置效率差异的σ收敛特征并不显著,西部地区存在明显的"追赶效应";GDP、科技发展水平、城镇化率、产业结构、金融发展水平、开放水平对全国及三大地区数据要素市场化配置效率的影响呈现异质性特征.

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed that the global average temperature rise by the end of the century should be controlled within 2 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. In order to actively respond to climate change, the Chinese government has put forward the goal of “ carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”. However, the economic transformation under low-carbon operation still faces severe challenges. In this regard, based on the carbon market, carbon trading and carbon policy, the status of global CO 2 emissions and the energy transformation measures taken by international oil and gas companies for the dual carbon goal were investigated and analyzed with data mining and artificial intelligence data analysis. Based on the status of carbon emission in China and the practical decarbonization technologies in the oil and gas field, four key recommendations for decarbonization pathways were put forward, including popularizing new low-carbon material and technologies, promoting general carbon market standards, formulating protective policies for green transformation enterprises, and encouraging low-carbon research and development. What’s more, five key areas for the energy transformation of oil companies in China were proposed, which are accelerating low-carbon development and exploration of oil and gas, carrying out carbon footprint full-chain evaluation, promoting intelligent and intensive development of shale gas,expediting research and development of hydrogen energy and CCUS technology. The research results can provide a valuable reference for the achievement of the dual carbon goal and the smooth transformation of oil companies.

本文提出了一种生物物理经济学思想的碳排放权价值区间测算模型,使用温室气体环境容量价值解释碳排放权内在价值,以区别于使用企业边际减排成本或一级、二级市场价格等博弈结果的解释方法.虽然气候与经济动态综合模型(DICE模型)使用碳排放的社会成本(SCC)概念部分地实现了这个目标,但如果模型经历"排放—碳循环—气候变化—经济损失"的传导后对贴现率过于敏感,那么结果可能会包含较大的主观性.本文首先研究温室气体环境容量的价值形成过程,通过概率分布描述所有影响碳排放权价值的因素;其次使用蒙特卡洛方法对这些因素进行10000次试验,最终得到碳排放权价值概率分布和模型的敏感性分析结果.本文还提出了碳排放权参照价格模型,用于评估每单位碳排放应为本国环境容量生产以及国际碳机制对本国的货币损失所支付的货币量.参照价格是符合《巴黎协定》中"公平以及共同但有区别的责任和各自能力原则"的理论碳价,考虑了不同国情.本文的模型计算完全根据中国实际情况获得关键参数和数据,为中国碳市场健康发展以及气候变化谈判提供理论依据.

Improving the efficiency of factor allocation, breaking the resource curse, and achieving high-quality economic development are an urgent concern in resource-based cities. Using the panel data of 116 prefecture-level resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2020, this paper constructs the data envelopment analysis-Malmquist index model to measure the level of high-quality economic development; to construct a resource misallocation growth accounting model based on the total production function to measure the distortion coefficient, the threshold panel model is employed to explore the threshold effect of factor market distortion on high-quality economic development. The results yielded three important findings: (1) The green total factor productivity of resource-based cities in China presents spatial heterogeneity and type heterogeneity. (2) Factor market distortion gradient standards are proposed innovatively, and the factor market distortion level shows the spatial heterogeneity and type heterogeneity. (3) The influence of factor market distortion on high-quality economic development in resource-based cities presents a double threshold effect. According to the above research conclusions, this paper gives several policy recommendations to promote the factor marketization allocation and high-quality economic development of resource-based cities.

颠覆性能源技术是我国达成"双碳"目标、保证新旧能源有序衔接、实现绿色低碳高质量发展的关键所在.面对碳达峰碳中和的高标准和实现高质量发展的严要求,我国能源体系亟需有序转换衔接,但如何科学地对颠覆性能源技术全过程进行投资设计、进一步识别其盈利能力、市场风险等指标还有待进一步深入探究.本文梳理了颠覆性能源技术的相关研究,进一步依据不同生命周期阶段的特点设计了颠覆性能源技术投资规划方案、科学规划培育主体与支持方向,在此基础上运用SWOT模型与DELPHI法,建立"三类技术、四个阶段、三个步骤"的颠覆性能源技术投资规划设计方案,结合政治环境、经济环境、技术趋势、社会需求、现有竞争技术、潜在竞争技术、颠覆性能源技术的产业链能力、价值网络成熟度、技术类型、所处生命周期、EROI、CROI、NPV、内部收益率等形成指标体系,综合提出了匹配颠覆性能源技术投资方案的流程和范式,可为颠覆性能源技术的投资培育与市场推广提供参考,为相关政府部门制定配套政策提供参考建议.

2018-2022年中国原油、天然气对外依存度分别稳定在70%和40%左右的水平.2018年中国原油进口量为4.62亿吨,2019年首次超过5亿吨,2020年达到历史最高点5.42亿吨.由于国内需求下降、国际油价上涨和进口配额调整等原因,2021、2022年中国原油实际进口量略有下降,分别为5.13亿吨和5.08亿吨.2018-2021年中国LNG进口量出现波动性上升趋势,从741.16亿立方米增长至1087.29亿立方米,增长达46.05%,2022年LNG进口量下降19.47%,降至875.50亿立方米.2022年中国油气进口总额高达2.9万亿元,同比上涨43%,油气进口成本大幅上升.预计2023年随着经济复苏,中国油气消费量与进口量将进一步增长.

当今世界正面临百年未有之大变局,新一轮科技革命与产业变革方兴未艾,知识经济时代已经到来,需建立与之相适应的新理论、新方法.古典主义经济学是建立在牛顿力学等传统科学规律基础上,在与科学的结合方面存在一定偏差.能源经济研究融合了物理学、生物学、计算机、生态经济学等多学科.本文主要阐述了能源的分类和层次、能源在经济系统中的重要作用、负熵以及净能源理念、广义净能源概念;在国际上关于生物物理经济学研究的启发下,提出了广义净能源经济理论及其内涵思想,以期服务于新时代民族振兴之中国经济发展.

煤电矛盾一直以来都是煤炭和电力行业乃至整个能源行业的焦点问题.在厘清稳定点的条件之后,通过演化博弈分析对煤电系统演化过程进行了模拟.研究结果表明:第一,在市场价格以及政策约束下,煤厂电厂双方策略会向加价与购买方向演化,但是策略的稳定性不仅取决于煤电企业在系统内外所取得效益的比较,很大程度上取决于政府对价格上涨进行的管控,一旦电厂发电面临亏损,政府会出面调控煤价以保证正常电力供应.这意味着煤厂定价是动态调整的过程,调整至双方均有利可图,以保持社会稳定.第二,策略稳定性与替代能源发电效率、政府对电厂的补贴及发电环境成本等都有着密切的关系,政府对其重点改进也有利于实现双碳目标.第三,在电价实行政府管控条件下,煤电价格联动政策仍是当前短期化解煤电矛盾主要手段.

基于规模收益可变假设条件下投入导向的DEA方法,构建了包括投入产出和环境变量在内的效率评价指标体系,对我国30个省(直辖市、自治区)2020年火电能源经济系统效率进行了全面分析,基本判断了不同地区火电能源效率改进的方向.通过模型计算得到各省具体火电能源经济系统效率值,以地区发电特点与资源禀赋为依托,因地制宜分析其效率未达到最优的原因,并对不同地区的火电能源利用提出改进建议.结果表明,仅有北京、内蒙古、江西和新疆4个地区表现为DEA有效,其余地区在规模层面与技术层面存在可改进空间,各省可对投入冗余和产出不足侧的具体指标做定向优化以提高效率.

经历了2020年新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,2021年国际工程承包完成营业额修复至2019年的水平,但是,中国对外承包工程合同额和营业额继续下降.分析中东、非洲、中亚-俄罗斯、亚太、美洲地区的油气工程行业状况.对比美国福陆、法国德希尼布、中国化学工程、中石化炼化工程、中油工程5家公司的营业收入、净利润、毛利率、海外收入占比、成本费用利润率、资产负债率.中国油气工程企业在上述五大地区分别存在上、中、下游的市场机会,同时面临内外部大环境的挑战和企业自身因素的挑战.建议中国油气工程企业提前做好全产业链、价值链、数字化转型、新能源和新材料的布局,快速补齐海洋工程、投融资业务能力短板,持续优化五大地区市场开发策略.

为应对气候变化问题,《京都议定书》等文件催生了以CO2排放权作为商品的碳交易市场的建立.研究中国试点碳排放权交易市场的有效性对我国统一碳市场的建设以及碳中和目标的实现具有重要的指导意义.本文选取有效交易日数据,对中国试点碳市场的有效性进行探索性研究,结合有效市场假说理论与分形市场假说理论,分别采用游程检验法、方差比检验法以及重标极差分析法对中国碳市场有效性进行综合分析,同时探讨各方法导致计算结果不一致的原因,并利用GARCH模型进行检验.研究表明:中国试点碳市场未能达到弱式有效水平.同时,根据中国目前碳市场运行现状给出一定的建议.

通过编制浙江省2007—2017年可比价能源投入产出表,测算了其直接能源消耗系数、间接能源消耗系数和完全能源消耗系数;同时基于结构分解分析方法对浙江省能源强度变化的影响因素进行了分析.实证研究结果表明:除其他服务业外的5个部门的完全能源消耗系数均呈下降趋势;能源强度呈下降趋势,而能源技术效应是导致能源强度下降的主导因素;最终需求结构效应总体上降低了浙江省5类能源消耗强度.