Shale gas plays a significant strategic role in improving energy security and optimizing the energy mix for China. However, the potential environmental impacts are becoming an extremely serious problem with the rapid development of shale gas in China. This paper presents how to select and optimize a set of tailored eco-environmental early-warning indicators coupled with subjective and objective methods in a pressure-state-response (PSR) framework. An early-warning methodology is proposed based on the composite index method and gray prediction model to assess and predict eco-environmental problems of shale gas production. Meanwhile, the early-warning signals are designed based on the status quo of Changning shale gas play, one of the most favorable plays in China, which could send the different signals timely once the early-warning tipping points are broken. We find that Changning shale gas play had a severe warning with yellow signals from 2018 to 2019 and red signals from 2020 to 2023, and the projects have to be stopped if there are no more powerful and effective actions since 2020. The positive effects at the response level cannot offset the increasing negative influences at the pressure level, and methane emissions might be the potent greenhouse gas when extracting shale gas. The results show that the workers or managers on site could take more proactive actions and make better decisions to curb environment deterioration since the early-warning system is more practical and easier to understand and use for non-experts in practice.

页岩油作为未来最具有发展前景和最现实的石油接替资源之一,其能否实现规模效益化开发事关能源安全生命线,国内石油企业对页岩油的勘探开发投资力度前所未有.针对页岩油勘探开发投资决策优化问题,考虑到集团公司和各油田分公司共同参与、分散决策、利益诉求不同等特点,提出利用双层规划理论与方法对投资决策问题进行建模:上层规划以经济效益、环境效益和社会效益最大化为目标,获取整体效益最大化;下层规划以利润最大化为目标,获取各油田分公司的最大经济效益.基于模型特点,引入交互式决策方法,设计了基于满意度的交互式迭代算法,并通过算例证明了模型的有效性和可行性,最后进行了基于满意度、目标权重和置信水平的灵敏度分析,解决模型中含有影响模型解的参数问题.研究结果表明,在集团公司和各油田分公司上、下级双重决策作用机制下,所提出的模型可以有效地处理模拟和优化投资过程中以模糊数和随机变量表示的多个不确定性,集团公司总体满意度和油田分公司满意度都有所提升,并且上、下层满意度的差距得以缩小,意味着在保证分公司经济利益的同时,还减少了环境污染,提高了系统整体效益.

The largest ever investment in shale gas resources has induced potential environmental threats in China. The assessment and forecasting of environmental impacts associated with shale gas production is highly challenging due to the characteristics of high uncertainty, nonlinearity, and complexity. This paper proposes a new hybrid model by combining the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework with the firefly algorithm (FA) and a nonlinear auto-regressive (NAR) dynamic neural network (the PSR-FA-NAR model) to detect and forecast the state of the environment as well as send warning signals for shale gas production. Then, an empirical sample, the Changning-Weiyuan national-level shale gas pilot zone that produces more than 50% of Chinese shale gas output, is used to test the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that Changning play will predictably face severe environmental threats imposed by rapid development, and the model is not only able to capture nonlinearity time-series and present cause-effect relationships but is also able to improve the predictive performance and forecasting accuracy. It proves that the PSR-FA-NAR model can effectively address the problems with high dimensionality, complexity, and nonlinearity and provides a practical methodology to quantify and identify the potential environmental impacts of unconventional oil and gas production.

In recent years, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely used in hyperspectral images (HSIs) classification. However, 2-D CNN, 3-D CNN, and even the newly emerged hybrid CNN (HCNN) all require multiple or deep CNN layers to obtain excellent classification performance, which inevitably results in the high complexity and the need for a large number of training samples. Moreover, as a local operator, convolution is challenging to fully use global information. To solve the above two issues, we design a HCNN based on global reasoning (GloRe-HCNN) for HSI classification. On the one hand, the GloRe-HCNN uses only one layer of 3-D CNN and one layer of 2-D CNN to jointly extract the spatial–spectral features of HSI. On the other hand, we contrive a spatial–spectral global reasoning unit (SS-GloRe-Unit) to take the place of stacked multilayer 3-D CNN for extracting global features fully. We select small training samples in three standard datasets and compare them with state-of-the-art CNN methods. Numerous experiments show that our GloRe-HCNN performs advanced performance.

智能工业与能源可持续转型存在互动效应,二者协同转型更有利于加快传统工业转型升级.在构建智能工业转型指数( IITI)和区域能源可持续转型指数( RETI)的基础上,基于因子分析和耦合协调方法对智能工业与区域能源可持续协同转型水平进行测度,研究2007—2018年我国30个省份协同转型的时空分异特征,并基于探索性空间数据分析方法分析了协同转型的空间关联格局演化特征.结果表明:2007—2018年我国智能工业与区域能源可持续协同转型水平虽呈现出不断提升的趋势,但整体水平不高,2018年初级协调及以上水平的省份仅占20%,处于失调状态省份高达40%;协同转型呈现了"东部沿海+长江经济带"的" T型"格局,"虹吸效应"使得欠发达地区形成同步滞后现象;"南强北弱"特征较为明显,北方省份普遍低低聚集,协同转型形势严峻;未来应充分重视智能工业和区域能源可持续转型的高耦合关系,发挥发达地区的"辐射作用",引导资本、人才、技术向转型滞后地区流动,避免出现"锈带化"危机.

在国际油价剧烈震荡、国际形势不稳定性和不确定性增加的情形下,全球油气产业正面临着前所未有的挑战和考验,部分页岩气企业难免会亏损甚至倒闭.目前中国页岩气资源的勘探开发尚处于初级阶段,国家政策的支持在低油价这一极端情景下尤为重要,如何充分发挥国家政策引领作用并测量相关扶持政策的实施效果是亟待解决的问题.根据中国2012—2018年、美国2007—2018年页岩气相关政策和产量数据变化,以页岩气资源开发扶持政策的实施效果为研究对象,对页岩气相关扶持政策进行梳理并分析其对产量的影响.研究结果表明:中国页岩气政策激励程度与美国相比仍然较弱,为促进中国页岩气大规模的商业化开发,中国应保持现有的财政补贴标准,加强税收减免力度,进一步延长补贴及税收减免时长,同时加大对页岩气勘探开发技术研发的支持,从而促进中国页岩气资源的大规模商业化开发,确保国家长期能源安全战略目标的实现.

针对ERP沙盘模拟中学生易错和易违规之处,以提升教学质量和实训效果为切人点,从指导教师角度剖析沙盘模拟教学过程并确定实训前、实训中和实训后的教学质量关键点,进而提出教师应采取"由账到实"再"由实到账"的教学策略,同时引领学生把控模拟企业先生存再发展、企业动态博弈决策以及竞合作用等管理理论和思想的模拟应用.结果表明,这些举措能切实解决学生财务知识缺乏问题,使其深刻理解和践行管理的艺术在于驾驭信息等管理本质问题,实现虚拟仿真实验教学的虚与实以及趣味性与严肃性相结合.

根据《新型智慧城市评价指标(2018)》指标体系,利用多层次模糊综合评价树对青岛市新型智慧城市建设水平进行评价,按照最大隶属度原则对5级评价等级进行处理,结果显示评价"一般"的隶属度最高.通过对评价结果的追溯分析,发现制约青岛市新型智慧城市建设水平的是数据的共建共享难题、条块分割问题以及公众参与度不够等,由此提出建立大数据资源生态圈、"市-区-部门"联动机制及以民生为导向的新型智慧城市治理框架体系等破解之策.

非常规油气资源作为最现实的可替代能源,对其进行勘探和开发对于降低日益加大的石油供需矛盾缺口和确保国家能源安全均具有重要的战略意义.然而,非常规油气资源勘探开发十分复杂,开发投资决策好坏已经成为制约其能否实现规模化和产业化的关键问题,科学投资决策问题已逐步成为石油企业高层管理者的主要职责.针对非常规油气资源开发投资的多阶段多目标决策优化难题,以可供开发区块的资源分配为重点研究对象,从解决不同区块投资规模入手,运用多阶段决策、多目标决策和不确定多属性方案优选的方法理论,通过剖析非常规油气开发投资决策过程及其复杂性特征,将开发投资决策过程进行形式化描述并在计算机中加以实现,从而得以实现开发投资决策方案的动态性调整.本项研究不仅有助于深化多目标动态优化决策理论的研究,还为解决非常规油气资源开发投资决策难题提供一种新的思路和方法.

我国页岩气富集区域多分布在山区或丘陵地带,气源与主干管线距离较远,外输管线建设复杂程度高且投资规模大,其投资决策合理与否直接影响到页岩气的商业化开发.针对信息不确定条件下的页岩气外输管线投资决策难题,以筛选最优外输管线路径为研究对象,通过剖析页岩气外输管线投资决策过程的复杂性,建立多阶段多目标投资决策模型,并利用改进后的Dijkstra算法对模型进行求解,从而实现页岩气外输管道建设投资的动态调整.不仅为解决页岩气外输管线投资决策难题提供一种新的思路和方法,还有助于深化不确定条件下多阶段多目标决策理论的研究.

Natural gas is playing an extremely significant role in implementing green and low-carbon economy in China, while its share in energy mix only accounted for 6.4% of China's total energy consumption in 2016. The Chinese government began to make a series of policies and measures to catalyze natural gas production and consumption for dealing with severe air pollution and optimizing energy structure. Some key issues such as highly regulated natural gas pricing system, the monopoly of natural gas pipelines, and the dominance of state-owned oil companies are substantially existing to be addressed in the forthcoming natural gas reforms. The dilemma of reforms is analyzed in this article and the related reform solutions are to be explored in the deregulation of Chinese natural gas pricing mechanism, separation of state-owned companies' pipeline, and nondiscriminatory third-party access. The results show that Chinese natural gas reform is destined to be a long-lasting war.

模块化能合理有效地同时实现产品多样化和生产规模化,将成为信息时代面向订单生产企业的重要生产模式之一.文章针对需求同时受价格和模块化水平影响的产品,根据集中决策和分散决策下批发价格和模块化水平的最优决策方法,解决供应链环境下产品价格和模块化水平决策难题,构造契约机制以实现供应链的成员决策协调.最后通过数值算例讨论各参数对供应链整体利润以及“双重边际效应”程度的影响.

It is necessary to design and optimize ERP practical teaching system because there are so many problems that the requirement goals of ERP practice cannot be satisfied greatly and the difference of majors cannot be used to provide the reasonable schemes.Based on ERP simulation game, ERP software application, and ERP practice in enterprises, the novel ERP practical teaching system is set up to apply theories and knowledge of different fields and cultivate different talents for the enterprises.It is the most important to make better integration of ERP theories and practices in order to satisfy the requirements of social enterprises by applying the ERP practical teaching system.

How to select the most commercial shale gas play is the key factor of industrialization and commercialization for the shale gas industry and the top priority task of the firms that need to be engaged in unconventional gas production.This paper focuses on investment decision to optimize selection of shale gas plays under uncertainty.A fuzzy dynamic multi-attribute decision model is set up to explore the most commercial play and present the investment sequences of these plays which show the exploration orientation and investment priorities for oil companies.This paper is organized as follows: Firstly, the strategic role of shale gas exploration and production in China is introduced and its necessity of selecting the most profitable shale gas play is analyzed.Secondly, a problem to be solved is stated and the difficulties and complexities during the whole decision-making process are further analyzed.Thirdly, the dynamic multi-attribute model based on interval number is designed to explore how to select the most satisfied shale gas plays and provide the best investment opportunity, and the algorithm is given in section 2.2.Fourthly, a numerical example is shown to apply the mathematical model to select the most commercial shale gas play for the oil company according to the geological and geographical information, environmental expenditure, the principles of gas production and trend, and infrastructure investment, etc.Finally, the conclusion is presented in section 4.Whereas, the shale gas plays cannot be explored everywhere and the gas prices are not market-driven in China so that the results maybe optimistic or pessimistic.In any case, the result shows that the model is effective and practical tool for the oil company to improve the whole decision-making process.

Oil theft always results in huge economic loss, human casualties, and extremely environmental pollution especially when the leaks from crude oil pipeline are not detected and repaired timely. In this paper, we focus on how to detect and monitor abnormal noise and vibration beforehand or in real time by the Internet of Things (IoT). Firstly, the diversities of crude oil theft and the difficulties of oil anti-theft are analyzed in China, and the requirement analysis of the IoT application is stated. Secondly, the intelligent anti-theft system based on the IoT is planned and designed for crude oil transportation by tank trucks and by oil pipelines according to the current situation in China. Thirdly, the problems of anti-theft system implementation are discussed, and the suggestions and advice are put forward to ensure that the system can be implemented successfully. The intelligent anti-theft system application can not only stop oil theft timely, but also prevent oil mice from stealing crude oil beforehand.

It is of great significance for Qingdao Free Trade Zone ( FTZ) to design and implement "Intelligence Integration" project, which is directly related to efficient and innovative development of FTZ. While the outlook for Qingdao FTZ"Intelligence Integration"project is prospective, its implementation is faced with many obstacles, such as difficulties in project promoting and financing, information-island, lack of credit, illegal registration opportunity investment. Therefore, specific suggestions including setting up a leading group, carrying out unified planning, introducing BOT financing mode, developing credit supervision system and enterprise management system are proposed to promote and guarantee its development.

文章在对青岛自贸区管理运营模式分析基础之上,从税务管理、贸易管理、金融管理以及人员流动管理等四个方面构建“智慧一体化”平台方案以实现自贸区的动态可视化管理,从资金来源、协调管理、信息孤岛等方面分析方案实施的潜在问题并提出引入BOT融资模式、成立委员会、顶层统一规划等对策建议.结果表明,“智慧一体化”平台可以有效辅助政府实现自贸区的协调高效管理.

Evaluation index system of oil and gas investment environmentis constructed with literature analysis and expert interview, then the evaluation model is established based on proof theory.Oil and gas investment environments are evaluated comprehensively with the data of 2003-2012 in 10 countries of the Middle Eeast and the evolvement process of individual oil and gas investment environment is analyzed on the results computed by this model, finally the factors giving rise to changes of investment environments are analyzed. Results show that the oil and gas investment environments in the Middle East declined from 2003 to 2014, which are mainly influenced by political situation, economic environment, oil price slump, etc.

研究表明,自贸区是推动我国新一轮经济发展改革的"催化剂".青岛自贸区的设立对于促进中日韩区域经济一体化具有重要意义.青岛自贸区具有规模大,经营类型复杂的特点,如果管理出现纰漏,不仅不利于提高自贸区各企业和部门的工作效率,还会影响到整个自贸区的发展前景及其战略价值作用的发挥.本文基于对青岛自贸区实际情况的分析,从企业管理、货物管理以及人员管理等三个方面构建智慧自贸区建设方案,以实现自贸区的动态可视化管理,并分析方案实施的潜在问题并提出对策.

文章基于超效率数据包络分析(SE-DEA)理论构建了油气投资环境潜力测度模型,选取我国主要投资地区中东、南美和非洲的28个主要油气产国为研究对象,测度了2003～2012年油气投资环境潜力,使用Theil指数构建了潜力差异测度模型,研究了地区内和地区间的潜力差异变动趋势.研究结果表明:2003 ～2012年油气投资环境潜力呈现快速增长后持续下滑态势,中东地区整体潜力明显高于南美和非洲地区,南美地区在短暂下滑后出现强劲复苏势头,潜力分布仍不均衡,潜力差异以地区内部差异为主,地区内部差异以非洲地区最为明显,地区间差异所占比重不大.